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  • 1.
    Abate, Megersa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Does fuel price affect trucking industry’s network characteristics?: evidence from Denmark2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

     The 2000s were dominated by rising fuel prices and economic recession. Both had an impact on the structure of the trucking industry and how freight was moved. This paper examines how fuel prices shaped trucking industry’s network characteristics such as the average length of haul, average load, and capacity utilization. In particular, we show the effect of fuel price on average length of haul using 29 quarterly independent surveys from the Danish heavy goods vehicle (HGV) trip diary from 2004 to 2011. The results show that the average length of haul is sensitive to changes in fuel price: a DKK 1 (0.18$) increase in diesel price/liter leads to a 4 percent decrease in the average length of haul in the 2004-2007 period. This implies that firms improve transport efficiency by reducing the number of kilometers needed to transport a tonne of cargo as a short run response to fuel price increases. This result, however, is not confirmed for the years following the 2008 financial crisis. It also depends on where in the distribution of the average length of haul one looks.

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  • 2.
    Abate, Megersa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Economic effects of air transport market liberalization in Africa2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, p. 326-337Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the aviation industry is increasingly becoming important for Africa's economic development and integration, the ability of airlines to access foreign markets remains hindered by restrictive regulatory policies. Attempts have been made to fully liberalize the intra-African air transport market. Except for general assertions about the merits/demerits of liberalization, our empirical understanding of the welfare effects of such polices in Africa remains rudimentary. This study empirically measures the economic effects of air transport liberalization, mainly on two supply side variables: fare and service quality, measured as departure frequency. The empirical models evaluate how air fares and departure frequency respond to measures of openness in air services agreements, while controlling for other determinants. The results show up to 40% increase in departure frequency in routes that experienced some type of liberalization compared to those governed by restrictive bilateral air service agreements. Furthermore, there is a relatively larger increase in departure frequency in routes which experienced partial liberalization compared to fully liberalized ones. This can be explained by the diminishing marginal effect of progressive liberalization on departure frequency. While the effect of liberalization is substantial in improving service quality, there is no evidence of its fare reducing effect.

  • 3.
    Abate, Megersa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Economic effects of air transport market liberalization in Africa2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the aviation industry is increasingly becoming important for Africa's economic development and integration, the ability of airlines to access foreign markets remains hindered by restrictive regulatory policies. Attempts have been made to fully liberalize the intra-African air transport market. Except for general assertions about the merits/demerits of liberalization, our empirical understanding of the welfare effects of such polices in Africa remains rudimentary. This study empirically measures the economic effects of air transport liberalization, mainly on two supply side variables: fare and service quality, measured as departure frequency. The results show up to 40 % increase in departure frequency in routes that experienced some type of liberalization compared to those governed by restrictive bilateral air service agreements. While the effect of liberalization is substantial in improving service quality, there is no evidence of its fare reducing effect.

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  • 4.
    Abate, Megersa
    et al.
    World Bank.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    de Jong, Gerard
    University of Leeds.
    Baak, Jaap
    dSignificance.
    A disaggregate stochastic freight transport model for Sweden2018In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, p. 1-26Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents estimation results for models of transport chain and shipment size choice, as well as an implementation of the estimated disaggregate models (for two commodity groups), in the context of the national freight transport model for Sweden. The new model is a disaggregate and stochastic (logit) model, whereas the existing Swedish national model is deterministic. One advantage of the new approach is that it bases the underlying behavior of shippers on a stronger empirical foundation (that is micro-data from the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey, CFS). Another advantage is that it overcomes a well-known disadvantage of deterministic models that lead to implausibly large responses to changes in scenario or policy variables. Although estimation and implementation of aggregate stochastic models were done before, in the context of a national freight transport forecasting model, we think this is the first implementation of disaggregate freight transport chain and shipment size models estimated on choice data for individual shipments, certainly in Europe. We carried out a number of model runs with both versions of the implemented model to compare elasticities and found that transport cost and time elasticities for tonne-km are smaller (in absolute values) in the disaggregate stochastic model than in their deterministic counterparts.

  • 5.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Energimätning på tåg för rundvirkestransporter på sträckan Mora–Borlänge–Gävle2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The third sub-project of ELVIS demonstration project for longer and heavier freight trains aims to analyze and measure energy usage of heavier trains. With heavier refers to a higher overall weight by more wagons, both loaded and unloaded, than would normally run on the route. The assumption is that heavier trains are able to do (freight) transport more energy efficient. The goal is to primarily test the hypothesis: · That energy consumption per ton can be reduced by using heavier trains. The report also illustrates the difficulties of using existing data for the evaluation of energy consumption on trains. The data in these has not been quality assured for the purposes of this study, which has caused a lot of errors and the credibility of some results are lower than otherwise would be needed. Thus, a conclusion from the project is that it would take a review of the databases of the Swedish Transport Administration on energy use should be studied further, at least if equipment such as their energy meter should be used. Alternatively, mount external equipment on locomotives to thereby generate more useful data; the latter, however, was not possible due to the owner of the locomotive. Given all sources of error associated with the data, the report analyze how the energy of a freight train is due to the gross weight of the train, the number of stops the train makes and drivers' driving style. Findings were that driving style plays a major role, between drivers the different in net energy used is up to 20 percent. Furthermore, there is differences in energy consumption connected to gross weights on the train, but then it's a bit unclear how the results should be interpreted in conjunction with the lack of quality of the data, it takes more measurements to be able to say anything definite. The same applies to the number of stops affecting the use of energy. On the first leg the number of stops had no impact on energy consumption, which it had on the investigation route.

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  • 6.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Intermodala transporter: definition, aktörer och omfattning2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Intermodal and combined transport is often used synonymously today. The concept of combined transport has been around much longer and referred to as transportation where railway and a truck are being combined. Nowadays a combined transport often means that the goods either go by rail, inland waterways or sea and by road, or between two transport modes where trucks are not included. Intermodal and combined transport is often used synonymously today. The concept of combined transport has been around much longer and referred to as transportation where railway and a truck are being combined.

    Nowadays a combined transport often means that the goods either go by rail, inland waterways or sea and by road, or between two transport modes where trucks are not included. The EU’s so-called combi directive defines both in the same way and one of the EU Commission’s proposal to amend this directive is that EU should be considered to replace the concept of combined transport with intermodal transport. An intermodal transport precedes by a transportation decision, and this decision is often linked to a specific train path (tågläge in Swedish). If there is shortage of capacity on the track, the goods may have difficulties to be transported by train. This could potentially mean that some (rail) business / transports will not take place and the goods go by road instead.

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  • 7.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Kostnader för störningar i infrastrukturen: metodik och fallstudier på väg och järnväg2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study is to illustrate the methodology that can be used in calculations of the cost to society when disruptions in the infrastructure occurs, specifically for traffic on road and rail. The principles and values that are recommended to be used in social cost-benefit analyses (CBA) in the Swedish transport sector are proposed by the ASEK-group (a working-group addressing issues on the application of CBA in the transport sector), and decided by the Swedish Transport Administration. They will be taken as given on the cost side of the CBA in this study, there will not be a benefit side since the interest for this study lies expressively on the cost side. This study is thus not a normative analysis, the aim is instead to study and apply methodologies for valuing (in monetary terms) the consequences of already occurred disturbances. The various ASEK-values require information about several aspect of the trips when calculating the value of travel time and transport time, as well as when calculating the delays and the value of travel time savings in congestion. Even though the ASEK-values are recommended by the Swedish Transport Administration, they are also questioned, especially for freight transport. This is also addressed in the report.

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  • 8.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Luftfartens samhällsekonomiska marginalkostnader: delstudie inom SAMKOST2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report is a literature review on the marginal social costs of aviation, and is a sub-project to VTI’s project about updating the knowledge of the external costs of traffic (SAMKOST). The report discusses which impacts of aviation are external, and which are already internalized. It is not entirely clear which impacts that should be considered as the relevant marginal costs for aviation. For example, both congestion and accidents are seen as internalized since they are already taken care of through the air traffic control service, a service that all aircraft must use in Swedish airspace by law. Similar arguments applies to the infrastructure. The large external effect is aviation’s environmental impact. It is separated into three different categories; the impact of noise, air quality and the impact on the climate.

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  • 9.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    et al.
    Ramböll .
    Ericson, Johan
    WSP.
    Johansson, Oskar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Ridderstedt, Ivan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Marginalkostnad för luftfartens infrastruktur2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The main purpose of this study is to estimate the marginal costs of aviation infrastructure. But since it not exist a uniform definition of what is the cost base of the aviation infrastructure, there is also a discussion of what costs should be included. An additional purpose of the study is to relate the estimated marginal costs to today's pricing and to investigate whether aviation pays its socio-economic costs.

    Estimates of the marginal cost of utilizing (relevant) airport infrastructure and for operating airline infrastructure is being analyzed using cost data from Stockholm Arlanda Airport and the Civil Aviation Authority. The empirical approach used to analyze cost items is a regression analysis, with adjustments for month-specific variations in travel patterns, when the airport section is investigated, and taking into account regional differences for airports when investigating air traffic control in the towers.

    There are some uncertainties in the study, but in the light of this, the results indicate that the average marginal cost of the infrastructure is around SEK 13 per passenger and SEK1,168 per aircraft started. Corresponding estimation for air traffic management is also uncertain, with results indicating a marginal cost of SEK 373 per flight. Furthermore, it appears that the revenue from marginal cost-based charges could not alone finance the state aviation infrastructure.

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  • 10.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Ad hoc-processen: hur används ledig kapacitet i järnvägsnätet?2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    After the Swedish Transport Administration’s adoption of next year's timetable in mid-fall each year, starts the so-called ad hoc process, i.e. requests for train paths that can use spare capacity in the network. VTI received in September 2015 Transport Agency's mission to deepen the understanding of the ad hoc-process, This “notat” reports that assignment. In light of the description that was made, the intention was to also find the measure of the importance of this process in relation to the process leading to adopting a final schedule. It has been found that the Transport Administration’s various information management systems are not designed to enable such a description.

    Thanks to a recent statistical tool, it is possible to observe that nearly 97 percent of the passenger trains booked into the annual timetable process, also actually run. This refers to two thirds of the timetable year 2015. The aim of the Transport Agency/Traffic analysis is to, in the near future, also report similar information about freight train. Behind this figure conceals both an outflow and an inflow of traffic that will be conducted in accordance with the timetable set out in the autumn of each year. However, there is no knowledge of when these changes are implemented, which is of great importance for assessing the degree of flexibility in the ad hoc process. This situation may change as a result of the Transport Agency as of the timetable relating to 2016 for the charges to cancel the allocated capacity. The fee will be higher the closer to the scheduled departure of the train the application is withdrawn. This can help improve the flexibility in the use of the track capacity not reserved in the annual timetabling process. Another consequence may be that the information on the process will improve.

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  • 11.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköping University.
    European railway deregulation: an overview of market organization and capacity allocation2021In: Transportmetrica A: Transport Science, ISSN 2324-9935, E-ISSN 2324-9943Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    European railways have been reorganized to allow for market competition. Thus, train services have been vertically separated from infrastructure management which allows several operators to compete. Different ways have emerged for vertical separation, capacity allocation and track access charges. This paper reviews important deregulation aspects from a number of European countries. The study compares how competition has been introduced and regulated with focus on describing capacity allocation and track access charges. Although guided by the same European legislation, we conclude that the studied railways have different deregulation outcomes, e.g. market organization, capacity allocation. Besides, few countries have so far managed to have efficient and transparent capacity allocation. Although allowed by the legislation, market-based allocation is absent or never used. To foster more competition which can yield substantial social benefits, the survey indicates that most European railways still need to develop and experiment with more efficient and transparent capacity allocation procedures. © 2021 Vti Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute. Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

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  • 12.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköpings universitet.
    Railway capacity allocation: a survey of market organizations, allocation processes and track access charges2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In the last few decades, many railway markets (especially in Europe) have been restructured to allow competition between different operators. This survey studies how competition has been introduced and regulated in a number of different countries around the world. In particular, we focus on a central part of market regulation specific to railway markets, namely the capacity allocation process. Conflicting capacity requests from different train operators need to be regulated and resolved, and the efficiency and transparency of this process is crucial. Related to this issue is how access charges are constructed and applied. Several European countries have vertically separated their railway markets, separating infrastructure management from train services provisions, thus allowing several train operators to compete with different passengers and freight services. However, few countries have so far managed to create efficient and transparent processes for allocating capacity between competing train operators, and incumbent operators still have larger market-share in many markets.

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  • 13.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköping University, Sweden.
    The value of additional data for public transport origin: destination matrix estimation2021In: Public Transport, ISSN 1866-749X, E-ISSN 1613-7159Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Passenger origin–destination data is an important input for public transport planning. In recent years, new data sources have become increasingly common through the use of the automatic collection of entry counts, exit counts and link flows. However, collecting such data can be sometimes costly. The value of additional data collection hence has to be weighed against its costs. We study the value of additional data for estimating time-dependent origin–destination matrices, using a case study from the London Piccadilly underground line. Our focus is on how the precision of the estimated matrix increases when additional data on link flow, destination count and/or average travel distance is added, starting from origin counts only. We concentrate on the precision of the most policy-relevant estimation outputs, namely, link flows and station exit flows. Our results suggest that link flows are harder to estimate than exit flows, and only using entry and exit data is far from enough to estimate link flows with any precision. Information about the average trip distance adds greatly to the estimation precision. The marginal value of additional destination counts decreases only slowly, so a relatively large number of exit station measurement points seem warranted. Link flow data for a subset of links hardly add to the precision, especially if other data have already been added. © 2021, The Author(s).

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  • 14.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköping Universit, Sweden; Swedish Transport Administration, Sweden.
    Warg, J.
    Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Are commuter train timetables consistent with passengers’ valuations of waiting times and in-vehicle crowding?2022In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 116, p. 188-198Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Social cost-benefit analysis is often used to analyse transport investments, and can also be used for transport operation planning and capacity allocation. If it is to be used for resolving capacity conflicts, however, it is important to know whether transit agencies' timetable requests are consistent with the cost-benefit framework, which is based on passenger preferences. We show how a public transport agency's implicit valuations of waiting time and crowding can be estimated by analysing timetables, apply the method to commuter train timetables in Stockholm, and compare the implicit valuations to the corresponding passenger valuations in the official Swedish cost-benefit analysis guidelines. The results suggest that the agency puts a slightly lower value on waiting time and crowding than the passenger valuations codified in the official guidelines. We discuss possible reasons for this and implications for using cost-benefit analysis for capacity allocation. We also find that optimal frequencies are more sensitive to the waiting time valuation than to that of crowding. © 2021 The Authors

  • 15.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköpings universitet.
    Warg, Jennifer
    KTH.
    Are commuter train timetables consistent with passengers’ valuations of waiting times and in-vehicle crowding?2020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Many models have been developed and used to analyse the costs and benefits of transport investments. Similar tools can also be used for transport operation planning and capacity allocation. An example of such use is the assessment of commuter train operations and service frequency. In this study, we analyse the societally optimal frequency for commuter train services. The aim is to reveal the implicit valuation (by the public transport agency) of the waiting time and the in-vehicle crowding in the commuting system. We use an analytic CBA model to formulate the societal costs of a certain service frequency and analyse the societally optimal frequencies during peak and off-peak hours. Comparing the optimal and the actual frequencies allows to reveal the implicit valuations of waiting time and crowding. Using relevant data from the commuter train services in Stockholm on a typical working day in September 2015 (e.g., OD matrix, cost parameters), we perform a numerical analysis on certain lines and directions. We find the societally optimal frequency and the implicit valuation of waiting time and crowding. The results suggest that the public transport agency in Stockholm (i.e., SL) adopted service frequencies that are generally slightly higher than societally optimum which can be explained by a higher implicit valuation of waiting time and crowding. We also find that the optimal frequencies are more sensitive to the waiting time valuation rather than that of crowding.

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  • 16.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Kurt, Filiz
    Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR).
    Isberner, Alessa
    Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR).
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Berg, Mats
    KTH.
    Assessing innovations in High-Speed Rail infrastructure2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Innovations in high-speed rail (HSR) have had substantial effects on different stakeholders within and outside the railway system. As part of the European Shift2Rail research programme, several innovative solutions are developed for, among others, improving the HSR infrastructure. The joint undertaking behind this research program has set objectives for these innovations in terms of punctuality, capacity, and life cycle costs. With a focus on infrastructure-related innovations for HSR, this paper aims at assessing their impacts in relation to these targets. We review the relevant research literature about the effects of HSR innovations and their assessment. The paper presents a hybrid assessment methodology combing different approaches to assess capacity, punctuality, and cost effects. This contributes to reducing the existing gap that is found in the research literature. Based on a reference scenario for HSR line and collected data from different stakeholders, the results indicate that infrastructure innovations in HSR, being developed within the European Shift2Rail research programme, can contribute to reaching the target set for punctuality. Further innovations in HSR infrastructure and/or other railway assets may be needed to reach additional targets and for more accurate improvement values giving more insights into their impacts.

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  • 17.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Kurt, Filiz
    Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt, Germany.
    Isberner, Alessa
    Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt, Germany.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Berg, Mats
    KTH.
    Assessing Innovations in High-Speed Rail Infrastructure2023In: Socioeconomic Impacts of High-Speed Rail Systems: Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on High-Speed Rail Socioeconomic Impacts, University of Naples Federco II, Italy, 13–14 September 2022 / [ed] Francesca Pagliara, Springer, 2023, p. 217-233Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Innovations in high-speed rail (HSR) have had substantial effects on different stakeholders within and outside the railway system. As part of the European Shift2Rail research programme, several innovative solutions are developed for, among others, improving the HSR infrastructure. The Joint Undertaking behind this research program has set objectives for these innovations in terms of punctuality, capacity, and life cycle costs. With a focus on infrastructure-related innovations for HSR, this paper aims at assessing their impacts in relation to these targets. We review the relevant research literature about the effects of HSR innovations and their assessment. The paper presents a hybrid assessment methodology combing different approaches to assess capacity, punctuality, and cost effects. This contributes to reducing the existing gap that is found in the research literature. Based on a reference scenario for HSR line and collected data from different stakeholders, the results indicate that infrastructure innovations in HSR, being developed within the European Shift2Rail research programme, can contribute to reaching the target set for punctuality. Further innovations in HSR infrastructure and/or other railway assets may be needed to reach additional targets and for more accurate improvement values giving more insights into their impacts. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

  • 18.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lidén, Tomas
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Minimal utilization rate for railway maintenance windows: a cost-benefit approach2022In: European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, ISSN 1567-7133, E-ISSN 1567-7141, Vol. 22, no 2, p. 108-131Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Methods for economic assessment are often used in the rail sector to evaluate large infrastructure investments such as new high-speed lines. With larger networks and ageing infrastructure, these methods can also be used for planning maintenance. In this paper, we focus on the newly introduced concept of maintenance windows in Sweden. These are pre-allocated slots in the train timetable dedicated to performing, among others, periodic/frequent maintenance activities. To justify the pre-allocation of such windows, this study presents a method to find minimal utilization rates depending on window designs and traffic situations. Using a cost-benefit approach, the windows are assessed using a total social cost including work costs, loss in traffic production and reliability gains in future traffic. Based on a case study from the Southern main line in Sweden, we study the minimal utilization rate in different test scenarios, i.e., night or day shifts, asset degradation functions and designs of maintenance windows. The results show that lower utilization rates (4-42%) can be accepted during low-volume traffic or for partial closures, while higher utilization rates (47-83%) are required for full closures during high-volume traffic. Whether the rates are measured as the share of used window time or the share of utilized windows is less important, especially when higher utilization is required. Sensitivity analyses of asset knowledge indicate that parameters such as asset degradation function and minimum asset quality (and to a lesser extent traffic volume, discount rate and failure likelihood) can have a substantial effect on the minimum required utilization rates.

  • 19.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lidén, Tomas
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Minimal utilization rates for railway maintenance windows: a cost-benefit approach2021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Methods for economic assessment, e.g., cost-benefit analysis, are often used in the rail sector to evaluate large infrastructure investments such as building new high-speed railway lines. With larger railway networks and aging infrastructure, these methods can also be used for maintenance planning decisions. In this paper, we focus on basic maintenance and the newly introduced concept of maintenance windows in Sweden. These are pre-allocated slots in the annual train timetable dedicated to performing, among others, periodic/frequent maintenance activities such as inspections, maintenance and repairs. To justify the pre-allocation of such windows, this study presents a method to find minimal utilization rates depending on window designs and traffic situations. Using a cost-benefit approach, the maintenance windows are assessed using a total social cost including maintenance work costs, loss in traffic production and reliability gains in future traffic. Based on a case study from the Southern main line in Sweden, we study the minimal utilization rate in different test scenarios, i.e., night or day shifts, asset degradation functions and designs of maintenance windows. The results show that lower utilization rates (5-50%) can be accepted during low-volume traffic or for partial closures, while higher utilization rates (50-90%) are required for full closures during high-volume traffic. Whether the rates are measured as share of used window time or share of utilized windows is less important, especially when higher utilization is required.

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  • 20.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lindberg, Per Olov
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköping University.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Peterson, Anders
    Linköping University.
    A disaggregate bundle method for train timetabling problems2020In: Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, ISSN 2210-9706, E-ISSN 2210-9714, article id 100200Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The train timetabling problem (TTP) consists of finding a feasible timetable for a number of trains which minimises some objective function, e.g., sum of running times or deviations from ideal departure times. One solution approach is to solve the dual problem of the TTP using so-called bundle methods. This paper presents a new bundle method that uses disaggregate data, as opposed to the standard bundle method which in a certain sense relies on aggregate data. We compare the disaggregate and aggregate methods on realistic train timetabling scenarios from the Iron Ore line in Northern Sweden. Numerical results indicate that the proposed disaggregate method reaches better solutions faster than the standard aggregate approach. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd

  • 21.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pålsson, Björn
    Mechanics and Maritime Sciences/CHARMEC, Chalmers.
    Torstensson, Peter
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Evaluating the mix of maintenance activities on railway crossings with respect to life-cycle costs2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Switches & crossings (S&Cs) are vital assets as they allow for increased railway capacity by introducing flexibility and connectivity in railway networks. At the same time, this makes them critical since they can cause costly delays and disruptions if they are not well maintained. This motivates studies to improve maintenance strategies of S&Cs, considering both the life-cycle costs (LCC) of the assets and socio-economic transportation costs for passengers and freight customers. In this paper, the interdependence between deterioration mechanisms, maintenance activities, and expected LCC (including transportation costs) is investigated using a combination of mechanical and econometric modelling. The interrelation between the degradation of contact geometry and track settlement is analysed using simulations of dynamic vehicle–turnout interaction. Long-term mechanical degradation of the S&C is simulated for different maintenance strategies that correspond to different timing of the associated maintenance measures (crossing repair welding and tamping). This provides the basis for analysing the interdependence between preventive and corrective activities using econometric modelling. Based on a case study of a common type of S&Cs in the Swedish infrastructure, the impact of different maintenance strategies on LCC and transportation costs is analysed. Opportunities and challenges in the development of more socio-economically effective maintenance strategies of S&Cs are discussed.

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  • 22.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pålsson, Björn
    Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences/CHARMEC, Sweden.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Torstensson, Peter
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Evaluation of long-term maintenance of switches & crossings with respect to life-cycle costs and socio-economic impact2022Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Switches & crossings (S&Cs) are vital assets as they allow for increased railway capacity by introducing flexibility and connectivity in railway networks. At the same time this makes them critical, and they can cause major delays and disruptions if they are not well maintained. This motivates studies to improve maintenance strategies of S&Cs, considering both life-cycle costs (LCC) of the assets and other additional socio-economic costs (e.g., transportation costs for passengers and freight customers). In this paper, the interdependence between deterioration mechanisms, maintenance activities, and expected LCC (including transportation costs) is investigated using a combination of mechanical and econometric modelling.

    The interrelation between the degradation of contact geometry and track settlement is analysed using simulations of dynamic vehicle–turnout interaction. Changes in the timing of the associated maintenance measures (crossing repair welding and tamping) are performed to investigate the impact on damage modes. This is then linked to LCC and transportation costs, which requires a distribution between preventive and corrective activities with respect to the simulated maintenance strategy. This relationship is investigated by means of regression modelling: 𝑪𝒐𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆=𝑓(𝑷𝒓𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆,𝑿)

    where Corrective and Preventive represent the number of failures and the scheduled actions to prevent these failures, respectively. 𝑿 holds variables related to the traffic (volume, type of traffic, axle load, etc.) and the infrastructure (type of S&Cs, etc.).

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  • 23.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Warg, Jennifer
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköpings universitet.
    Pricing commercial train path requests based on societal costs2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    On deregulated railway markets, efficient capacity allocation is important. We study the case where commercial trains and publicly controlled traffic (“commuter trains”) use the same railway infrastructure and hence compete for capacity. We develop a method that can be used by an infrastructure manager trying to allocate capacity in a socially efficient way. The method calculates the loss of social benefits incurred by changing the commuter train timetable to accommodate a commercial train path request and based on this calculates a reservation price for the train path request. If the commercial operator’s willingness-to-pay for the train path exceeds the loss of social benefits, its request is approved. The calculation of social benefits takes into account changes in commuter train passengers’ travel times, waiting times, transfers and crowding, and changes in operating costs for the commuter train operator(s). The method is implemented in a microscopic simulation program, which makes it possible to test the robustness and feasibility of timetable alternatives. We show that the method is possible to apply in practice by demonstrating it in a case study from Stockholm, illustrating the magnitudes of the resulting commercial train path prices. We conclude that marginal societal costs of railway capacity in Stockholm are considerably higher than the current track access charges.

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  • 24.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Linköping University.
    Warg, Jennifer
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköping University.
    Pricing commercial train path requests based on societal costs2020In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 132, p. 452-464Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    On deregulated railway markets, efficient capacity allocation is important. We study the case where commercial trains and publicly controlled traffic (“commuter trains”) use the same railway infrastructure and hence compete for capacity. We develop a method that can be used by an infrastructure manager trying to allocate capacity in a socially efficient way. The method calculates the loss of societal benefits incurred by changing the commuter train timetable to accommodate a commercial train path request, and based on this calculates a reservation price for the train path request. If the commercial operator's willingness-to-pay for the train path exceeds the loss of societal benefits, its request is approved. The calculation of these benefits takes into account changes in commuter train passengers’ travel times, waiting times, transfers and crowding, and changes in operating costs for the commuter train operator(s). The method is implemented in a microscopic simulation program, which makes it possible to test the robustness and feasibility of timetable alternatives. We show that the method is possible to apply in practice by demonstrating it in a case study from Stockholm, illustrating the magnitudes of the resulting commercial train path prices. We conclude that marginal societal costs of railway capacity in Stockholm are considerably higher than the current track access charges.

  • 25.
    Alexandersson, Gunnar
    et al.
    Stockholm School of Economics Institute for Research, Sweden.
    Andersson, Matts
    WSP Advisory, Sweden.
    Bondemark, Anders
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Hulten, Staffan
    Stockholm School of Economics Institute for Research, Sweden.
    Neither market nor hierarchy: coordination costs in the allocation of track capacity in the Swedish railway network2022In: Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, ISSN 1370-4788, E-ISSN 1467-8292Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Transaction costs have been an issue since the advent of the deregulation of the European railway markets in the 1990s. Transaction cost economics received renewed attention in research on the deregulated railway markets in the EU after the publications of two influential reports in the early 2010s. In this article, we develop a model that enables classification and measurement of transaction costs and other coordination costs in deregulated markets. This model is then used to analyze the costs of path allocation in the Swedish railway sector and to compare the results with findings in previous research. We also discuss the economic rationale of the distribution of coordination costs among the involved parties. Our key empirical findings are that the total coordination costs in the Swedish market-mimicking path allocation process are as low as or lower than the most cost-efficient market coordination processes studied in railway markets, and that the state administrations take on nearly all the coordination costs in order to minimize the effects of opportunism, rent-seeking and information impactedness. Another finding is that the size of the coordination costs found by different studies seems to be dependent on whether a bottom-up or a top-down approach is used.

  • 26.
    Allard, Alexandra
    et al.
    Linköping Universitet.
    Takman, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Uddin, Gazi Salah
    Linköping Universitet.
    Ahmed, Ali
    Linköping Universitet.
    The N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve: an empirical evaluation using a panel quantile regression approach2018In: Environmental Science and Pollution Research, ISSN 0944-1344, E-ISSN 1614-7499, Vol. 25, no 6, p. 5848-5861Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We evaluate the N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) using panel quantile regression analysis. We investigate the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP per capita for 74 countries over the period of 1994–2012. We include additional explanatory variables, such as renewable energy consumption, technological development, trade, and institutional quality. We find evidence for the N-shaped EKC in all income groups, except for the upper-middle-income countries. Heterogeneous characteristics are, however, observed over the N-shaped EKC. Finally, we find a negative relationship between renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions, which highlights the importance of promoting greener energy in order to combat global warming.

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  • 27.
    Andersson, Angelica
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Breyer, Nils
    Linköpings universitet.
    Daly, Andrew
    University of Leeds.
    Engelson, Leonid
    Linköpings universitet.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Mode Choice Latent Class Estimation on Mobile Network DataManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we use a nested latent class logit specification to define and estimate a large-scale mode choice demand forecasting model. We estimate this model based on mobile phone network data translated to roughly 100 000 long-distance trips within Sweden, achieving convergence of the model and credible parameter estimates. We develop methods to address two problems stemming from the nature of this data: the difficulties of distinguishing bus trips from car trips (since they share the same infrastructure) and distinguishing business from private trips (since trip purpose is unknown). To address the first issue, we estimate a nested logit model with an artificial nest that accounts for the differences in utility between bus and car. To address the latter issue, we estimate a latent class model, identifying classes of trips interpreted as private and business trips. Addressing these two issues substantially improves model fit. 

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  • 28.
    Andersson, Angelica
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics. Linköping University, Sweden.
    Engelson, Leonid
    Linköping University, Sweden.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Linköping University, Sweden.
    Daly, Andrew
    University of Leeds, United Kingdom.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Long-distance mode choice model estimation using mobile phone network data2022In: Journal of Choice Modelling, ISSN 1755-5345, E-ISSN 1755-5345, Vol. 42, article id 100337Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we develop two methods for the use of mobile phone data to support the estimation of long-distance mode choice models. Both methods are based on logit formulations in which we define likelihood functions and use maximum likelihood estimation. Mobile phone data consists of information about a sequence of antennae that have detected each phone, so the mode choice is not actually observed. In the first trip-based method, the mode of each trip is inferred by a separate procedure, and the estimation process is then straightforward. However, since it is not always possible to determine the mode choice with certainty (although it is possible in the majority of cases), this method might give biased results. In our second antenna-based method we therefore base the likelihood function on the sequences of antennae that have detected the phones. The estimation aims at finding a parameter vector in the mode choice model that would explain the observed sequences best. The main challenge with the antenna-based method is the need for detailed resolution of the available data. In this paper we show the derivation of the two methods, that they coincide in case of certainty about the chosen mode and discuss the validity of assumptions and their advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, we apply the first trip-based method to empirical data and compare the results of two different ways of implementing it. © 2021 The Authors

  • 29.
    Andersson, Henrik
    et al.
    University of Toulouse.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro Universitet.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Institute of Transport Economics.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Economic Analysis and Investment Priorities in Sweden's Transport Sector2018In: Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, ISSN 2194-5888, E-ISSN 2152-2812, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 120-146Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Beginning as a planning tool within Sweden's national road administration some 50 years ago, benefit-cost analysis (BCA) has come to be a pillar of the national transport policy because of subsequent strategic choices made by the national parliament. These choices made it necessary to widen the analysis of costs to include also externalities and a foregone conclusion was that efficient investment priorities should be made based on BCA. But no one asked whether the political decision makers or the BCA models were up to that task. This paper reviews the institutional framework and practice of BCA in Sweden for transport infrastructure investment, and considers design issues that have been and still are debated, such as whether the discount rate should include a risk term and how to account for the marginal cost of public funds. A main concern with BCA results is the underestimation of construction costs, making transport sector projects look better than they are. Several ex post analyses have established that a higher NPV ratio increases the probability of being included in the investment program proposal prepared by the agency. The requirement to let projects undergo BCA seems to make planners trim project proposals by trying to reduce investment costs without significantly reducing benefits. This relationship is weaker among profitable projects. Moreover, there is no correlation between rate of return and the probability of being included in the final program, which is established on political grounds.

  • 30.
    Andersson, Henrik
    et al.
    Toulouse School of Economics.
    Jonsson, Lina
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Ögren, Mikael
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Benefit measures for noise abatement: calculations for road and rail traffic noise2013In: European Transport Research Review, ISSN 1867-0717, E-ISSN 1866-8887, Vol. 5, no 3, p. 135-148Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Purpose

    The aim of this study is to estimate monetary abatement values for road and rail traffic noise that can be used for policy purposes. However, a main objective is to critically discuss the assumptions necessary to convert the monetary values elicited in willingness to pay (WTP) studies to values than can be use for policy purposes.

    Methods

    We employ the hedonic regression technique on Swedish data to elicit individuals' preferences for noise abatement. Our elicited values are then converted to policy values and critically examined based on findings from a literature review.

    Results

    We show that WTP for road and rail not only differs in levels but also that the relationship between the noise level and the marginal value differs between the two sources. We also show that a health cost component added to the WTP estimate, based on the assumption of uninformed property buyers, will be small but not negligible and that also modest differences in the assumption of the discount rates will have a significant effect on the estimated values.

    Conclusions

    The main implications from this study are: (i) WTP for road and railway noise abatement differs not only on absolute but also marginal levels, (ii) Even small differences in the chosen discount rate, which is necessary to convert WTP values from a hedonic price study to policy values, have large effects on the policy values, and (iii) We show how to add a health cost component to the WTP estimates in order for the monetary estimates to reflect the total social cost. However, we argue that the motivation for doing so is weak and that more research is needed on this issue.

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  • 31.
    Andersson, Henrik
    et al.
    Toulouse School of Economics.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Ögren, Mikael
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Efterfrågan på tystnad: skattning av betalningsviljan för icke-marginella förändringar av vägtrafikbuller2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Efterfrågan på tystnad från vägbullerexponering skattas i detta projekt baserat på båda stegen i en så kallad hedonisk modell. Vi använder data från sju olika kommuner runt om i Sverige. Baserat på efterfrågekurvan kan vi räkna ut betalningsviljor för icke-marginella förändringar i bullerexponering från vägtrafik. Dessa resultat har stor användning i samhällsekonomiska kalkyler inom transportsektorn. Våra skattningsresultat visar att betalningsviljan för en bullerreducering från 66 till 65 dB är 2211 kronor per individ och år och 477 kronor per individ och år för en bullerreducering från 56 till 55 dB. Resultaten visar ingen betalningsvilja för bullerreduceringar under 52,8 dB. För en bullerreducering från 66 dB till 52,8 dB och alla lägre bullernivåer är betalningsviljan 15 225 kronor. Denna summa är även kostnaden för att utsättas för 66 dB vägbuller per individ och år.

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  • 32.
    Andersson, Henrik
    et al.
    Toulouse School of Economics LERNA Université Toulouse 1.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Ögren, Mikael
    Göteborgs universitet.
    Traffic noise effects of property prices: hedonic estimates based on multiple noise indicators2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Valuation of traffic noise abatement based on hedonic pricing models of the property market has traditionally measured the noise as the equivalent, or another average, level. What is not captured in such a noise indicator is the maximum noise level of a vehicle passage. In this study, we incorporate the maximum noise level in the hedonic model letting the property price depend on both the equivalent noise level and the maximum noise level. Hedonic models for both rail and road noise are estimated. Data consists of characteristics of sold properties, property-specific noise calculation, and geographical variables.

    We use the hedonic approach to estimate the marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for maximum noise abatement where we model the effect as the maximum noise level subtracted with the equivalent noise level. Furthermore, we control for the equivalent noise level in the estimations. The estimated results show that including the maximum noise level in the model has influence on the property prices, but only for rail and not for road. This means that for road we cannot reject the hypothesis that WTP for noise abatement is based on the equivalent noise level only. For rail, on the other hand, we estimate the marginal WTP for the maximum noise level and it turns out to be substantial. Also, the marginal WTP for the equivalent noise levels seems to be unaffected by the inclusion of the maximum noise level in the model. More research of this novel topic is requested though.

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  • 33.
    Andersson, Jan
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Traffic and road users.
    Andersson, Jeanette
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Nyberg, Jonna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Bondemark, Anders
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Henriksson, Per
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Sörensen, Gunilla
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Traffic and road users, Traffic Safety and Traffic System.
    Peters, Björn
    Ekblad, Johan
    Jpe Konsult AB.
    Regeringsuppdrag synfält: utredning om förutsättningar för undantag från de medicinska kraven för individer med synfältsbortfall2022Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I regeringsuppdraget (I2021/ 02412) framgår att VTI, i samarbete med Trafikverket och Transportstyrelsen, ska utreda förutsättningarna för undantagshantering från de medicinska föreskrifterna med avseende på synfältsbortfall (B-körkort). Vidare ska tre aspekter beaktas: hur andra länder gör, konsekvenser för den enskilde samt samhällsekonomiska konsekvenser. Slutrapporten påvisar att Sverige med gällande rättsligt ramverk inte kan genomföra de förslag som slutrapporten föreslår. Det innebär att det kommer att krävas juridiska förändringar. Givet att dessa förändringar genomförs och att ett nytt förfaringssätt nyttjas visar slutrapporten på att a) positiva effekter för den enskilde individen uppstår, b) samhällsekonomiska vinster uppstår och c) en rättssäker och rättvis prövning är möjlig. 

    Slutrapporten redovisar dessutom hur ett urval av andra länder har hanterat handläggningen av individer med synfältsbortfall givet samma EU-direktiv som Sverige regleras av. Det framgår också av undersökningen att samtliga länder, som en förutsättning för undantag från de föreskrivna kraven avseende synfält, tillämpar krav eller rekommendationer om att ett praktiskt körprov ska utgöra del i underlaget för bedömning av körförmågan. 

    Kunskapsläget med avseende på körförmågebedömningar för individer med synfältsbortfall redovisas och där framgår med tydlighet att perimetrin som Sverige utnyttjar som underlag för återkallelse av körkort inte kan predicera individers körförmåga. Perimetrin är dock viktig eftersom individer med synfältsbortfall som grupp kan vara olämpliga förare. Slutsatsen som forskningslitteraturen enstämmigt lyfter är att det behövs förarprov (på väg eller i en simulator) för att kunna genomföra en valid bedömning. 

    Slutligen innehåller slutrapporten vilka problem (aktiviteter) som kvarstår för att skapa en lämplig och kvalitetssäkrad process. Dessutom presenteras den kronologiska ordning på aktiviteter som behöver genomföras. Kronologin krävs eftersom resultatet av lämplig metod och aktör påverkar det vidare arbetet med avseende på utformning av körprov och rättsligt ramverk. 

    Slutrapportens slutsats är att Sverige har möjligheten att genomföra en förändring med avsevärda nyttor. Detta eftersom de valda aktörerna och de valda metoderna existerar idag och därför endast behöver utvecklas i viss mån för att säkerställa att individer med synfältsbortfall erbjuds en kvalitetssäkrad, rättssäker och rättvis process som dessutom bedöms vara samhällsekonomiskt lönsam.

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  • 34.
    Andersson, Mats
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Marginal railway track renewal costs: A survival data approach2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 87, p. 68-77Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, renewal costs for railway tracks are investigated using survival analysis. The purpose is to derive the effect from increased traffic volumes on rail renewal cycle lengths and to calculate associated marginal costs. A flow sample of censored data containing almost 1300 observations on the Swedish main railway network is used. We specify Weibull regression models, and estimate deterioration elasticities for total tonnage as well as for passenger and freight tonnages separately. Marginal costs are calculated as a change in present values of renewal costs from premature renewal following increased traffic volumes. The marginal cost for total tonnage is estimated to approximately SEK 0.002 per gross ton kilometre.

  • 35.
    Andersson, Matts
    et al.
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Thörn, Helena Braun
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Gomér, Ylva
    WSP Analysis & Strategy.
    The effect of minimum parking requirements on the housing stock2016In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 49, p. 206-215Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The cost of parking is in many cities subsidized and instead channelled through higher housing prices, wages, taxes, etc. The effects on other markets are principally well known, but the work on the area is limited. In this paper, we study how parking norms affect the size of the housing stock. Our analysis is based on a model of the rental, asset- and construction markets, the results are quality-assured by interviews with market actors. Prices and profits are affected when constructors are forced, through parking norms, to build more parking spaces than the customers demand. Parking norms reduce the housing stock by 1.2% and increase rents by 2.4% (SEK 300) in our example suburb.

  • 36. Anna, Pernestål
    et al.
    Albin, Engholm
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    The Impacts of Automated Vehicles on the Transport System and How to Create Policies that Target Sustainable Development Goals2020In: Shaping Smart Mobility Futures: Governance and Policy Instruments in times of Sustainability Transitions / [ed] Paulsson, Alexander; Sørensen, Claus Hedegaard, Emerald Publishing Limited , 2020, p. 37-53Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Abstract Automated vehicles are likely to have significant impacts on the transport system such as increased road capacity, more productive/enjoyable time spent travelling in a car, and increased vehicle kilometres travelled. However, there is a great risk that automated driving may negatively impact the environment if adequate policies are not put in place. This chapter examines the effects of driverless vehicles and the types of policies required to attain sustainable implementation of the technology. To understand the effects on a systemic level, and to understand the needs and impacts of policies, the dynamics must be understood. Therefore, a causal loop diagram (CLD) is developed and analysed. One important insight is that the effects of driverless vehicles are mainly on the vehicular level (e.g., the reduced number of accidents per vehicle). These effects can be cancelled out on a systemic level (e.g., due to increased vehicle-kilometre travelled (VKT) that increases total number of accidents). The marginal costs of road transport are central to both freight and passenger transport. Automation will reduce marginal costs and shift the equilibrium in the transport system towards a state with higher VKT. This will lead to greater energy consumption and higher emissions. To attain sustainability goals, there might be a need to balance this reduction of marginal costs by using policy instruments. In the work, CLDs is experienced to be a useful tool to support the collaboration between experts from different fields in the dialogue about policies.

  • 37.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Örebro University School of Business.
    Avoiding path dependence of distributional weights: Lessons from climate change economic assessment2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

     In some cost benefit analysis (CBA) applications, such as those used for the valuation of climate change damage, distributional weights are used to account for diminishing utility of marginal income. This is usually done by means of intra-temporal distributional weights, which are combined with discounting to account for inter-temporal equity and efficiency. Here, I show that this approach might introduce some inconsistencies in terms of path dependence. In short, this inconsistency means that regional economic growth is double counted. This is because income weighting is performed both through the discount rate and through the distributional weights such that growth shows up twice in the weighting process. Using the PAGE2002 model, it is found that the inconsistency problem in the original model erases the influence of distributional weights on the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2) compared to a standard CBA approach. The alternative approaches proposed here yield about 20 %–40 % higher values of SCCO2 than the old approach. While this has been briefly commented on in previous work, it has not yet been more thoroughly analyzed nor communicated to the broader community of climate policy and economic analysts who are not deeply interested in the specifications of the climate impact assessment models.

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  • 38.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Örebro Universitet.
    Combining discounting and distributional weights. Lessons from climate change economic assessments2019In: Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment, ISSN 2280-7659, Vol. 2019, no 1, p. 181-201Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In some cost benefit analysis (CBA) applications, such as those used for the valuation of climate change damage, distributional weights are used to account for diminishing utility of marginal consumption. This is usually done by means of intra-temporal distributional weights, which are combined with discounting to account for inter-temporal equity and efficiency. Sometimes region-specific discount rates have used to account for differences in projected growth across geographical areas. Here I show that if intra-temporal distributional weights are used in combination with endogenous and region-specific discount rates, then this will lead to a double counting of per capita economic growth. This problem has been known for some years now – in the tight circle of top climate economist – but the peer-reviewed literature has been rather implicit about the matter. The contribution of this paper is therefore to make the problem explicit by handle it formally, and to expand its generality somewhat. It is demonstrated – using the PAGE2002 model – that correct the way of combining distributional weights and discounting yield about 20-30% higher estimates than the incorrect method.

  • 39.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Cost-Benefit Analysis of climate policy and long term public investments2016Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This compilation dissertation consists of four essays with the common theme of welfare analysis of long-term public investments. The first two essays focus on analysis of climate change mitigation, i.e., the social cost of carbon dioxide. The third essay focuses on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of transport investment projects, while the last essay takes a broader perspective on welfare analysis.

    List of papers
    1. Avoiding path dependence of distributional weights: Lessons from climate change economic assessment
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Avoiding path dependence of distributional weights: Lessons from climate change economic assessment
    2012 (English)Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

     In some cost benefit analysis (CBA) applications, such as those used for the valuation of climate change damage, distributional weights are used to account for diminishing utility of marginal income. This is usually done by means of intra-temporal distributional weights, which are combined with discounting to account for inter-temporal equity and efficiency. Here, I show that this approach might introduce some inconsistencies in terms of path dependence. In short, this inconsistency means that regional economic growth is double counted. This is because income weighting is performed both through the discount rate and through the distributional weights such that growth shows up twice in the weighting process. Using the PAGE2002 model, it is found that the inconsistency problem in the original model erases the influence of distributional weights on the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2) compared to a standard CBA approach. The alternative approaches proposed here yield about 20 %–40 % higher values of SCCO2 than the old approach. While this has been briefly commented on in previous work, it has not yet been more thoroughly analyzed nor communicated to the broader community of climate policy and economic analysts who are not deeply interested in the specifications of the climate impact assessment models.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Örebro: , 2012. p. 20
    Series
    CTS Working Paper
    Keywords
    Economics, Climate change, Cost benefit analysis, Distribution (gen)
    National Category
    Economics
    Research subject
    SAB, Qb Managerial economics
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10840 (URN)
    Note

    Revised 2016

    Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
    2. Temporal Aspects of the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Temporal Aspects of the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
    2012 (English)Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the temporal aspects of the social cost of greenhouse gases (GHGs). I am particularly interested in the interaction between time of emissions, discounting, and type of GHG (where different GHGs have different atmospheric lifetimes). I show graphically how the social costs of GHGs depend on different parameter values and how the global damage potential for methane and sulfur hexafluoride evolves over time. I find that that the calculation period ultimately should be modeled to be consistent with the discount rate and that the “global-warming potential” concept is unsuitable for calculating of the social cost of GHGs other than carbon dioxide.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Örebro: , 2012. p. 14
    Series
    CTS Working Paper ; 2012:3
    Keywords
    Greenhouse gas, Cost benefit analysis, Emission, Cost, Time, Calculation
    National Category
    Economics
    Research subject
    SAB, Qa Economics and finance
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10839 (URN)
    Note

    Revised 2016

    Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
    3. Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?
    2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Reducing uncertainty can still be worthwhile, however, because of the huge amounts of money at stake: a 10% reduction in general uncertainty can increase the realized benefits of a national infrastructure investment plan by nearly 100 million euro (assuming that decisions are based on the CBAs). We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Stockholm: , 2016. p. 18
    Keywords
    Cost benefit analysis, Transport infrastructure, Investment, Decision process
    National Category
    Economics
    Research subject
    SAB, Qa Economics and finance
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10841 (URN)
    Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
    4. Household production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Household production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption
    2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Chetty (2006) developed a new method of estimating the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption (EMUC) from observed work time responses to wage changes and derived an upper bound of 2 for this parameter. Here I show that the omission of household production in Chetty’s model may lead to bias, and perform a numerical sensitivity analysis of Chetty’s results in this respect. I develop a new model that includes household production from which I derive new, unbiased EMUC formulas. I offer empirical estimates based on current evidence of the included parameters, suggesting a lower bound for EMUC of about 0.9.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Stockholm: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2016. p. 38
    Series
    CTS Working Paper ; 2016:10
    Keywords
    Economics, Household, Production, Mathematical model
    National Category
    Economics
    Research subject
    SAB, Qa Economics and finance
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10842 (URN)
    Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2024-02-22Bibliographically approved
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  • 40.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Discounting transport infrastructure investments2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The main aim of the study is to advice the Swedish national guidelines on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of transport infrastructure investments, ASEK about the appropriate set of discount-rates (currently 3.5% for all investments). To this end, first a literature review with a theoretical focus along with some new perspectives are provided. Second the conclusions are applied to Swedish infrastructure transport CBA, using the current proposition of a new HSR line as a case. Based on empirical research concerning parameter values new discount rates are estimated, and sensitivity analysis performed. The best estimate of the social discount rate in the present study, for land transport infrastructure investment in Sweden, is about 5.1%.

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  • 41.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Reducing uncertainty can still be worthwhile, however, because of the huge amounts of money at stake: a 10% reduction in general uncertainty can increase the realized benefits of a national infrastructure investment plan by nearly 100 million euro (assuming that decisions are based on the CBAs). We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

    Download full text (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 42.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Örebro Universitet.
    Household Production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption2017In: The B.E. Journals in Economic Analysis & Policy, ISSN 1935-1682, E-ISSN 1935-1682, Vol. 17, no 4, article id 20160265Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The popular approach to estimating the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption (EMUC) (Chetty 2006, "A New Method of Estimating Risk Aversion." American Economic Review 96 (5):1821-1834. doi:10.1257/aer.96.5.1821. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.96.5.1821) is here extended by including household production. It is shown that this generalization of the model is important as omission of household production may lead to bias, as demonstrated in a numerical sensitivity analysis. An extended model with household production is used to derive new EMUC formulas. Empirical estimates based on current evidence of the included parameters suggest a lower bound for EMUC of about 0.9.

  • 43.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Household production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Chetty (2006) developed a new method of estimating the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption (EMUC) from observed work time responses to wage changes and derived an upper bound of 2 for this parameter. Here I show that the omission of household production in Chetty’s model may lead to bias, and perform a numerical sensitivity analysis of Chetty’s results in this respect. I develop a new model that includes household production from which I derive new, unbiased EMUC formulas. I offer empirical estimates based on current evidence of the included parameters, suggesting a lower bound for EMUC of about 0.9.

    Download full text (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 44.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Optimal frequency of public transport in a small city: examination of a simple method2021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This study identifies the welfare optimal frequency of a scheduled public transport service from a methodological perspective, exploring what methods are more suitable for the case of bus services in a small city. The study examines how well various versions of the square-root rule, including established and newly proposed versions, estimate the optimal bus frequencies in the case city of Uppsala, versus estimates generated by a more comprehensive partial equilibrium model. The results indicate that extending the square-root rule by including transfer time, as proposed here, is empirically important. Furthermore, the results indicate that the square-root rule, with this extension, can estimate optimal frequency in Uppsala surprisingly well, and may be suitable for bus lines with two-way demand in the range of 75–200 pax/h.

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    fulltext
  • 45.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Örebro University School of Business .
    Temporal Aspects of the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the temporal aspects of the social cost of greenhouse gases (GHGs). I am particularly interested in the interaction between time of emissions, discounting, and type of GHG (where different GHGs have different atmospheric lifetimes). I show graphically how the social costs of GHGs depend on different parameter values and how the global damage potential for methane and sulfur hexafluoride evolves over time. I find that that the calculation period ultimately should be modeled to be consistent with the discount rate and that the “global-warming potential” concept is unsuitable for calculating of the social cost of GHGs other than carbon dioxide.

    Download full text (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 46.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. WSP Advisory.
    The welfare-maximizing discount rate in a small open economy2022Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The controversy about what approach is best for calculating the social discount rate for public investments is both long standing and heated. Two main approaches are the social time preference and the social opportunity cost approaches. Complicating issues are tax wedges, the question of whether public investments crowd out current private consumption or private saving, and the possibility of myopic behavior among individuals. This study uses a model that takes these issues into account to derive the discount rate that optimizes welfare in a small open economy. The result is that even if individuals have behavioral preferences differing from the normative preferences of the social planner and even if tax wedges exist, the optimal discount rate is the pre-tax market return on capital, as long as individuals are forward looking and consistent in their behavioral preferences, and their choices are not constrained by, for example, liquidity restrictions.

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  • 47.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Örebro Universitet.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, p. 195-205Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty.

    Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Provided that decisions are based on CBA outcomes, reducing uncertainty is still worthwhile, however, because of the huge sums at stake. Even moderate reductions of uncertainties about unit values, investment costs, future demand and project effects may increase the realized benefits infrastructure investment plans by tens or hundreds of million euros. We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

  • 48.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. K2.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. K2.
    A new model for analyzing differentiated fares and frequencies for urban bus services in small cities: Case study for the city of Uppsala2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for welfare evaluation of fare and frequency policies for bus services in smaller or medium-sized cities handling both congestion and crowding in public transport. The model with data for the city of Uppsala. Two scenarios with marginal increases in frequencies and fares are evaluated. Then four main optimal policies are evaluated: fares with unchanged base line frequencies, frequencies with unchanged base line fares, simultaneous optimization of fares and frequencies and finally a scenario called the Pareto scenario where frequencies and fares are optimized subject to the condition that no consumer group (defined by zone, time period, origin-destination pair) should be worse of in terms of generalized cost of trip.

    The results indicate that there are large, seemingly robust welfare gains from reducing public transport supply in Uppsala, especially in the outer zone of the city where reductions compared to the current situation are rather drastic. In comparison, welfare gains from adjusting fares are smaller. As there are large distributional effects in the welfare optimum, introduction of such a policy it is likely to be controversial. However, in an additionally examined scenario, almost all of the potential social welfare gains from the welfare optimal scenario is achieved while no consumer in any zone or time period is worse off compared to present policy. In this scenario, the total number of public transport passengers are increased and emissions are reduced compared to the current situation.

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  • 49.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Can increases in public transport supply be justified by concern for low-income individuals?2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper evaluates the impacts of different sets of distributional weights on optimal bus fares and frequencies in the small Swedish city of Uppsala. The model used represents choice between: three transport modes—public transport, cars, and a combination of walking and cycling; two time periods— peak and off-peak hours; two zones; and three origin–destination combinations. Five scenarios are evaluated: the base year (2014), a welfare-optimal combination without distributional concerns, and welfare-optimal policies for three sets of distributional weights with increasingly larger weights on lowincome individuals. The main results are that, compared with the welfareoptimal scenario without distributional weights, increasing the weights of the low-income group successively increases service frequencies and reduces fares. However, comparing the simulated results with the actual fares and frequencies in Uppsala in 2014, optimal frequencies with even the most far-reaching distributional objectives are lower

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  • 50.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    How Does Concern for Low-income Individuals Affect Optimal Public Transport Policy in a Small City?2022In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 56, no 3, p. 295-322Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper evaluates the impact of different sets of distributional weights on optimal bus fares and frequencies in the small Swedish city of Uppsala, with a two-way public transport demand per bus line of 200 pax/h in peak and 100 pax/h in off-peak. One result is that, compared with the welfareoptimal scenario without distributional weights, increasing the weights of the low-income group successively increases service frequencies. However, a more pronounced result is that a weight as low as 1.3 on low-income individuals' well-being (expressed in willingness to pay) is enough to justify a free-fare policy for this group.

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