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The Transition Towards a Fossil Free Freight Transport Sector: Policy Evaluations and Effects of Proposed Policy Instruments
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Geologi och geoteknik, Arkitektur och samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Chalmers.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8511-882X
2023 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The overall aim of this thesis is to improve the knowledge about how policy instruments can contribute to effective and efficient reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in the freight and maritime transport sectors. Paper I addresses this aim by analysing how policy evaluations contribute with information about whether policy instruments in the freight transport sector have been successful in achieving their targets and how to improve or correct already implemented ones. A meta-evaluation of ex-post climate policy evaluations is carried out, and by analysing the outcomes and quality of the evaluations, the study investigates whether estimated effects of policy instruments can be compared between evaluations and if the results are appropriate to use for evidence-based decision making. The study shows that there is a lack of systematic climate policy evaluation which hinders reliable conclusions about the effects of policy instruments. Consequently, there is a need for more systematic monitoring and evaluation of implemented policy instruments and the study suggests that evidence-based decision making can be improved by adjusting current policy evaluation guidelines and by introducing an evaluation obligation. Paper II addresses the overall aim by developing a modelling tool, referred to as the Swedish Energy Transition of Shipping (SETS) model, that can be used for policy scenario analyses of shipowners’ investment decisions in the Swedish maritime transport sector over the time period 2020-2045. The main contribution of the developed SETS model is that it can take into account data for individual ships and their operational patterns when estimating the impact of potential policy instruments. Hence, the model can contribute to an improved understanding of how proposed policy instruments can affect future greenhouse gas emission reductions in the maritime transport sector.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Göteborg: Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology , 2023. , p. 60
Series
Technical report ; 2023:6
National Category
Economics Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19772OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-19772DiVA, id: diva2:1767503
Presentation
2023-06-08, Göteborg, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Available from: 2023-06-14 Created: 2023-06-14 Last updated: 2025-09-11Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. A meta-evaluation of climate policy evaluations: findings from the freight transport sector
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A meta-evaluation of climate policy evaluations: findings from the freight transport sector
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2023 (English)In: Transport reviews, ISSN 0144-1647, E-ISSN 1464-5327, Vol. 43, no 5, p. 867-887Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Knowledge about how implemented policy instruments have performed is important for designing effective and efficient policy instruments that contribute to reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper carries out a meta-evaluation of ex-post evaluations of climate policy instruments in the freight transport sector. By analysing the outcomes and quality of evaluations, the aim is to identify whether estimated effects of policy instruments can be compared between evaluations and if the results are appropriate to use for evidence-based decision making. To analyse these aspects, commonly applied evaluation criteria are assessed and classified according to an assessment scale. We confirm that few ex-post evaluations are carried out and that there is a gap between evaluation theory and how ex-post policy evaluations are performed in practice, where evaluation criteria recommended in policy evaluation guidelines are found to often be neglected in evaluations. The result is a lack of systematic climate policy evaluation which hinders reliable conclusions about the effect of policy instruments. There is a need for more systematic monitoring and evaluation of implemented policy instruments and we suggest that evidence-based decision making can be improved by adjusting current policy evaluation guidelines and by introducing an evaluation obligation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2023
Keywords
climate policy instrument, evaluation criteria, freight transport, greenhouse gas emissions, Policy evaluation
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Construction Management
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19571 (URN)10.1080/01441647.2023.2175275 (DOI)000933010000001 ()2-s2.0-85147742281 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration
Note

Research funding was provided by the Swedish Transport Administration via Lindholmen Science Park AB for the project Triple F: Policy Instruments for Fossil Free Freight (PIFF) (VTI project number 204918 and Triple F project number 2020.3.2.14).

Available from: 2023-03-01 Created: 2023-03-01 Last updated: 2025-09-11Bibliographically approved
2. The Swedish maritime transport sector and scenario analyses of climate policy instruments
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Swedish maritime transport sector and scenario analyses of climate policy instruments
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19773 (URN)
Available from: 2023-06-14 Created: 2023-06-14 Last updated: 2025-09-11Bibliographically approved

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Trosvik, Lina

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