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Mode choice modelling of long-distance passenger transport based on mobile phone network data
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics. Linköpings universitet, Kommunikations- och transportsystem.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4926-1434
2022 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Reliable forecasting models are needed to achieve the climate related goals in the face of increasing transport demand. Such models can predict the long-term behavioural response to policy interventions, including infrastructure investments, and thus provide valuable pre-dictions for decision makers. Contemporary forecasting models are mainly based on national travel surveys. Unfortunately, the response rates of such surveys have steadily declined, implying that the respondents become less representative of the whole population. A particular weakness is that it is likely that respondents with a high valuation of time are less willing to respond to surveys (because they have less time available for such), and therefore there is a high chance that they are underrepresented among the respondents. The valuation of time plays an important role for the cost benefit analyses of public policies including transport investments, and there is no reliable way of controlling for this uneven sampling of time preferences. Fortunately, there is simultaneously an increase in the number of signals sent between mobile phones and network antennae, and research has now reached the point where it is possible to determine not only the travel destination but also the travel mode based on mobile phone network antennae connections. The aim of this thesis is to investigate if and how mobile phone network data can be used to estimate transportation mode choice demand models that can be used for forecasting and planning. Key challenges with using this data source in the context of mode choice models are identified and met. The identified challenges include uncertainty in the choice variable, the difficulty to distinguish car and bus trips, and the lack of information about the trip purpose. In the first paper we propose three possible model formulations and analyse how the uncertainty in the choice outcome variable would play a role in the different model formulations. We also conclude that it is indeed possible to estimate mode choice demand models based on mobile phone network data, with good results in terms of behavioural interpretability and significance. In the second paper we estimate models using a nested logit structure to account for the difficulty in separating bus and car, and a latent class model specification to meet the challenge of having an unknown trip purpose. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press , 2022. , p. 31
Keywords [en]
Demand model, Mode choice, Latent class, Mobile phone network data, Travel behaviour, Long-distance travel
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-18796DOI: 10.3384/9789179293604ISBN: 9789179293598 (print)ISBN: 9789179293604 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-18796DiVA, id: diva2:1679477
Presentation
2022-06-10, K3, Kåkenhus, Campus Norrköping, 10:15 (Swedish)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

Funding agencies: The research in this thesis has mainly been funded by the research projects DEMOPAN and DEMOPAN-2 within the research program Transportekonomi at The Swedish Transport Administration.

Available from: 2022-07-01 Created: 2022-07-01 Last updated: 2025-09-11Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Long-distance mode choice model estimation using mobile phone network data
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Long-distance mode choice model estimation using mobile phone network data
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2022 (English)In: Journal of Choice Modelling, E-ISSN 1755-5345, Vol. 42, article id 100337Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper we develop two methods for the use of mobile phone data to support the estimation of long-distance mode choice models. Both methods are based on logit formulations in which we define likelihood functions and use maximum likelihood estimation. Mobile phone data consists of information about a sequence of antennae that have detected each phone, so the mode choice is not actually observed. In the first trip-based method, the mode of each trip is inferred by a separate procedure, and the estimation process is then straightforward. However, since it is not always possible to determine the mode choice with certainty (although it is possible in the majority of cases), this method might give biased results. In our second antenna-based method we therefore base the likelihood function on the sequences of antennae that have detected the phones. The estimation aims at finding a parameter vector in the mode choice model that would explain the observed sequences best. The main challenge with the antenna-based method is the need for detailed resolution of the available data. In this paper we show the derivation of the two methods, that they coincide in case of certainty about the chosen mode and discuss the validity of assumptions and their advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, we apply the first trip-based method to empirical data and compare the results of two different ways of implementing it.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022
Keywords
Demand model, Long-distance travel, Mobile phone network data, Mode choice, Travel behaviour
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-17561 (URN)10.1016/j.jocm.2021.100337 (DOI)000819919700002 ()2-s2.0-85120617832 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-03-24 Created: 2022-03-24 Last updated: 2025-09-11Bibliographically approved
2. Mode Choice Latent Class Estimation on Mobile Network Data
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In this paper we use a nested latent class logit specification to define and estimate a large-scale mode choice demand forecasting model. We estimate this model based on mobile phone network data translated to roughly 100 000 long-distance trips within Sweden, achieving convergence of the model and credible parameter estimates. We develop methods to address two problems stemming from the nature of this data: the difficulties of distinguishing bus trips from car trips (since they share the same infrastructure) and distinguishing business from private trips (since trip purpose is unknown). To address the first issue, we estimate a nested logit model with an artificial nest that accounts for the differences in utility between bus and car. To address the latter issue, we estimate a latent class model, identifying classes of trips interpreted as private and business trips. Addressing these two issues substantially improves model fit. 

National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19097 (URN)10.2139/ssrn.4246865 (DOI)
Available from: 2022-10-28 Created: 2022-10-28 Last updated: 2025-09-11Bibliographically approved

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Andersson, Angelica

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