Heavy axle loads may induce rapid and severe pavement damage. Seasonal variations further affect pavement capacity as material properties change with temperature and moisture. Traditional design methods using Equivalent Standard Axle Loads (ESALs) may not properly represent actual damage, as they convert all traffic loads to a single reference load, obscuring the effects of varying stress magnitudes. This study presents an approach based on the shakedown range (SDR) concept to more accurately identify pavement damage thresholds. Using repeated load triaxial (RLT) and extra-large wheel tracking (ELWT) tests, the SDR behavior of a well-graded crushed rock aggregate was investigated. The European standard (EN 13286-7) criteria for SDR classification were evaluated and found adequate. Based on these criteria, a methodology was developed to estimate seasonal load limits using the pavement analysis software ERAPave, combined with a permanent deformation (PD) model. A case study of a typical pavement structure and a heavy vehicle under spring and summer conditions showed that during the spring-thaw period, the gross vehicle weight should be reduced to avoid severe damage, while higher loads may be permitted at other times. Thus, the methodology provides a practical tool for determining limiting loads under varying seasonal conditions.