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Machine Learning-Based Travel Demand Estimation Using OpenStreetMap
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics. Communications and Transport Systems, Department of Science and Technology, Linköping University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6956-7695
Communications and Transport Systems, Department of Science and Technology, Linköping University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5961-5136
2026 (English)In: IEEE Open Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, E-ISSN 2687-7813, Vol. 7, p. 1588-1601Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Accurate zonal-level travel demand estimates are essential for understanding travel behavior, planning transport systems, and assessing land use and sociodemographic changes. This estimation process, known as trip generation, underpins the conventional four-step travel demand model. Traditional approaches rely on surveys and large-scale data collection, which are often costly, biased, or limited in sample size. While OpenStreetMap (OSM) is increasingly used in transportation research, its potential for trip generation modeling remains underexplored. This study applies machine learning to predict zonal travel demand using OSM-derived built environment features, including land use, points of interest, and road network attributes, combined with population estimates from WorldPop. Aggregated origin-destination flows from established transport demand models serve as a proxy for observed behavior in two case study cities: Stockholm and Norrköping. The results show that OSM features, particularly those related to residential land use, buildings, and POIs (e.g., companies, healthcare facilities, and public transportation), are strong predictors of zonal demand. Using nested cross-validation, Gradient Boosting exhibited the strongest predictive performance across both case studies, achieving validation Rscores of 0.63 in Stockholm and 0.53 in Norrköping. These differences align with substantial variation in OSM feature completeness and mapping activity between the two cities. Overall, the findings highlight the potential of OSM, when combined with global open-source population data, for scalable, cost-efficient, and privacy-preserving travel demand estimation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2026. Vol. 7, p. 1588-1601
Keywords [en]
Machine learning, OpenStreetMap (OSM), travel demand estimation, trip generation
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-22833DOI: 10.1109/ojits.2026.3708204ISI: 001811572400002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105043738614OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-22833DiVA, id: diva2:2089207
Projects
Storskalig mobilitetsdata för kontinuerlig skattning av OD-, rutt- och länkflöden/Continuous demand, route and link flow estimation based on large-scale mobility data (CODE FLOW)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration, TRV 2023/109321
Note

Research funding also provided by The Swedish Transport Administration through the Triple F project MODIG-TEK (2019.2.2.16). 

Available from: 2026-07-31 Created: 2026-07-31 Last updated: 2026-07-31Bibliographically approved

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Klar, Robert

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12345671 of 13
CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
  • ieee
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