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A Kernel-Based Approach for Simulating Synthetic Travel Patterns
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics. Communications and Transport Systems, Department of Science and Technology, Linköping University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3373-3724
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics. Communications and Transport Systems, Department of Science and Technology, Linköping University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2831-4725
2026 (English)In: Procedia Computer Science: The 17th International Conference on Ambient Systems, Networks and Technologies Networks (ANT) / the 9th International Conference on Emerging Data and Industry 4.0 (EDI40) / [ed] Elhadi Shakshuki, Elsevier, 2026, Vol. 280, p. 959-964Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Modeling dynamic traffic processes requires detailed traveler-level demand unavailable in aggregated national forecasting models. We present a kernel-based approach for generating synthetic disaggregate travel demand using travel survey data. The method links survey respondents to agents in a synthetic population through similarity kernels over socio-demographics, schedule characteristics, and activity–location feasibility, and embeds these in a Metropolis–Hastings sampling framework to generate complete daily plans. The approach provides a modular way to combine heterogeneous information sources and to transfer observed behaviour to new populations without requiring exact matches between individuals. We demonstrate the approach on a stylized grid-world and on real data, where survey records are mapped to a national synthetic population. Results show that the method reproduces key marginal travel patterns, preserves individual variability, and avoids collapse toward modal behaviour, illustrating its potential as a demand synthesis and data-fusion tool in dynamic traffic modelling. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2026. Vol. 280, p. 959-964
Series
Procedia Computer Science, E-ISSN 1877-0509
Keywords [en]
Kernel-methods, Synthetic travel demand, Metropolis-Hastings, Travel-Survey, Data-fusion
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-22823DOI: 10.1016/j.procs.2026.04.121Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105042437597OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-22823DiVA, id: diva2:2089163
Conference
The 17th International Conference on Ambient Systems, Networks and Technologies Networks (ANT)/ the 9th International Conference on Emerging Data and Industry 4.0 (EDI40), Istanbul, Türkiye, April 14-16, 2026.
Projects
Restidsval och efterfrågekalibrering i dynamisk storstadsmodell/Travel time choice and demand calibration in a dynamic model
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration, TRV 2023/33572
Note

Presentation during The 15th International Workshop on Agent-based Mobility, Traffic and Transportation Models, Methodologies and Applications (ABMTrans 2026).

Available from: 2026-07-31 Created: 2026-07-31 Last updated: 2026-07-31Bibliographically approved

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Sederlin, MichaelFlötteröd, Gunnar

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67891011129 of 13
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf