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An empirical identification of a representative case of ship grounding in Swedish waters and estimation of resultant consequences
World Maritime University, Malmö, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2214-733X
World Maritime University, Malmö, Sweden.
World Maritime University, Malmö, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4626-4277
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6401-6536
2026 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The study examines grounding risk in Swedish waters using a multi-source, exposure-based analytical framework integrating accident data from Transportstyrelsen with operational activity data that the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, VTI calculated based on HELCOM’s AIS data and supplementary environmental and economic datasets. The analysis is based on 292 grounding incidents involving passenger ships, dry cargo ships and tankers over the period 2011-2023. Grounding frequency, exposure-normalised rates and consequence profiles are assessed to identify underlying risk patterns and representative scenarios. Results show that grounding incidents are concentrated in coastal and archipelagic areas and are dominated by passenger ships, which show consistently higher grounding rates relative to distance travelled, operational time and fleet size. Dry cargo ships display lower and more stable rates, indicating grounding occurrence proportional to operational exposure. While most incidents result in minor consequences, insurance data reveal increasing claim severity over time. Tanker groundings, although rare, represent the highest potential for severe environmental and economic impact. The findings demonstrate a difference between grounding frequency and consequence severity, highlighting the limitations of relying only on absolute accident counts. By integrating exposure-based metrics with consequence analysis, the study provides a strong assessment of grounding risk. The results support the need for differentiated risk management strategies targeting high-frequency operational risks in coastal waters and preparedness for low-probability, high-impact events in environmentally sensitive regions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2026. , p. 30
Series
Working Papers, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute ; 2026:6
Keywords [en]
ship grounding, maritime safety, risk assessment, risk management, risk analysis, exposure-normalised risk, Baltic Sea
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-22650OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-22650DiVA, id: diva2:2065461
Projects
SEAS - Samhällsekonomiska analyser för sjötransporter
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration, TRV 2022/107674Available from: 2026-06-03 Created: 2026-06-03 Last updated: 2026-06-03Bibliographically approved

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Vierth, Inge

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Hebbar, AnishSchröder-Hinrichs, Jens-UweVierth, Inge
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1617181920212219 of 36
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf