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Cost-efficient scenarios for reaching transportation climate targets
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Economics, Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9235-0232
Communications and Transport Systems, Department of Science and Technology, Linköping University, Sweden; Swedish Transport Administration, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1789-9238
2026 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 204, article id 104783Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We explore cost-efficient scenarios for reaching climate targets for the transportation sectors in the EU and Sweden, covering both passenger and freight transport. Our focus is on the relative contributions to emissions reductions from electrification, biofuels and traffic reduction. Information about cost-efficient scenarios can serve as roadmaps to reach given targets. This is important not only for designing climate policies; it also has implications for traffic planning, biofuel production planning and the transformation of the vehicle manufacturing industry. Our results indicate that electrification is by far the most important factor for reaching the climate targets. With the recent EU vehicle regulations in place, it is possible to reach the climate targets at a moderate cost; with slow electrification, the long-run targets are virtually impossible to reach. Assuming that EU emission standards are binding, reaching the targets also requires considerable amounts of biofuel, especially in the short and medium term. Traffic reduction contributes only marginally to reduced emissions. Hence, other negative externalities from road traffic need to be handled by other policy measures; climate policy only makes a marginal contribution to reducing other traffic externalities.  

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2026. Vol. 204, article id 104783
Keywords [en]
Carbon emissions, Climate policy, Transport electrification, Biofuels, Road transport, ESR (effort sharing regulation)
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-22332DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2025.104783ISI: 001627909600002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105022439633OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-22332DiVA, id: diva2:2019150
Funder
Swedish Environmental Protection AgencyAvailable from: 2025-12-05 Created: 2025-12-05 Last updated: 2025-12-12Bibliographically approved

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Börjesson, Maria

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Citation style
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