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Predicting Pavement Condition Index Using an ML Approach for a Municipal Street Network
Department of Streets and Roads, Skellefteå Municipality, Sweden; Division of Building Materials, Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Pavement Technology. Division of Building Materials, Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden; Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4256-3034
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2397-0769
Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research, School of Information Technology, Halmstad University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1043-8773
2025 (English)In: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part B: Pavements, E-ISSN 2573-5438, Vol. 151, no 2Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly getting attention in predicting pavement maintenance methods to improve decision-making. This study investigates the use of ML at the municipal level to predict the street pavement condition index (PCI) rating over a 4-year span. Several supervised learning models, namely linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), and neural network (NN), were applied to the visually assessed pavement condition data of Skellefteå municipality, Sweden. Pavement distress, pavement age, and traffic data were used in several combinations to evaluate and compare the performance of the models. The RF model was based on paired variables of pavement age and pavement distress data. The results were comparatively accurate with R2=0.59 and Spearman's coefficient=0.74 for residential streets in the model testing stage. Similarly, for main, collector, and industrial (MCI) streets, the RF model, based on pavement age and traffic variables, performed best with R2=0.79 and Spearman's coefficient=0.88 during the model testing stage. The importance of input variables varies with the level of the model's sophistication and pavement performance goal; however, pavement age is the dominant variable. The prediction models can be useful in effectively managing street networks among municipalities, even those with scarce resources.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2025. Vol. 151, no 2
Keywords [en]
Machine learning, Random forest, Pavement condition index, Street maintenance, Municipalities, Performance prediction
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-21936DOI: 10.1061/jpeodx.pveng-1568Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105002142302OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-21936DiVA, id: diva2:1953164
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research, DIA 2016/28
Note

Research funding also provided by Skellefteå municipality. 

Available from: 2025-04-17 Created: 2025-04-17 Last updated: 2025-04-30Bibliographically approved

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Erlingsson, SigurdurSjögren, Leif

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