The ongoing industrial transformation in northern Sweden is increasing demand for labour, business services, and public services. At the same time, the region is characterised by long distances, sparsely populated areas, and a transport system with considerable variations in capacity and service levels. A central challenge is to develop transport solutions that meet this development cost-effectively and sustainably.
This report analyses the conditions for fossil-free regional aviation within a multimodal transport system in northern Sweden. The study combines an analysis of regulations, governance and procurement with a network-based optimisation model to calculate how regional aviation networks can be designed under given technical and economic conditions. The analysis shows that aviation in Sweden today is only integrated to a limited extent in regional public transport planning. The division of responsibilities between the state and regional public transport authorities means that air traffic is managed separately from other modes of transport, hindering the development of integrated multimodal transport solutions. At the same time, a review of EU regulations suggests that there are no fundamental obstacles to including aviation in public transport systems, and that the limitations are primarily a result of how current regulations are applied in Sweden.
Technological developments in electric and hybrid aircraft are expected to enable new forms of regional aviation in the longer term. With lower capacity and shorter range than conventional aircraft, they are suited to shorter routes, allowing for a more fine-grained network structure. Model results indicate that such systems, under certain conditions, can improve accessibility in the region and create new travel opportunities, particularly where land travel times are long.
Range, charging infrastructure, and economic viability are also critical prerequisites for the development of future regional aviation within a multimodal transport system. The analysis shows that a transition to more direct connections between multiple regional nodes could create more travel opportunities than the current hub-and-spoke system centred on Stockholm Arlanda. Realising this potential requires greater coordination between modes of transport, including the integration of timetables, ticketing systems and physical infrastructure.
The report identifies several key institutional barriers to this development. These include limitations on the mandate of regional public transport authorities to procure air services, insufficient use of cost-benefit analysis in the procurement of air routes, and an unclear division of responsibilities between national and regional actors. As a result, current planning is largely mode-specific rather than grounded in an overarching intermodal accessibility perspective.
Enabling more integrated transport planning will require adapting both regulations and governance structures. Concrete proposals include strengthened regional influence over air traffic, improved methods for socioeconomic analysis of aviation's role, and enhanced coordination in planning and procurement across modes of transport.
Fossil-free regional aviation has the potential to play an important complementary role in the future transport system of northern Sweden. The extent of its impact, however, will depend on how well it is integrated with other modes of transport within a coherent, multimodal planning framework.