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  • 1.
    Abate, Megersa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Does fuel price affect trucking industry’s network characteristics?: evidence from Denmark2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

     The 2000s were dominated by rising fuel prices and economic recession. Both had an impact on the structure of the trucking industry and how freight was moved. This paper examines how fuel prices shaped trucking industry’s network characteristics such as the average length of haul, average load, and capacity utilization. In particular, we show the effect of fuel price on average length of haul using 29 quarterly independent surveys from the Danish heavy goods vehicle (HGV) trip diary from 2004 to 2011. The results show that the average length of haul is sensitive to changes in fuel price: a DKK 1 (0.18$) increase in diesel price/liter leads to a 4 percent decrease in the average length of haul in the 2004-2007 period. This implies that firms improve transport efficiency by reducing the number of kilometers needed to transport a tonne of cargo as a short run response to fuel price increases. This result, however, is not confirmed for the years following the 2008 financial crisis. It also depends on where in the distribution of the average length of haul one looks.

  • 2.
    Abate, Megersa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Economic effects of air transport market liberalization in Africa2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, p. 326-337Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the aviation industry is increasingly becoming important for Africa's economic development and integration, the ability of airlines to access foreign markets remains hindered by restrictive regulatory policies. Attempts have been made to fully liberalize the intra-African air transport market. Except for general assertions about the merits/demerits of liberalization, our empirical understanding of the welfare effects of such polices in Africa remains rudimentary. This study empirically measures the economic effects of air transport liberalization, mainly on two supply side variables: fare and service quality, measured as departure frequency. The empirical models evaluate how air fares and departure frequency respond to measures of openness in air services agreements, while controlling for other determinants. The results show up to 40% increase in departure frequency in routes that experienced some type of liberalization compared to those governed by restrictive bilateral air service agreements. Furthermore, there is a relatively larger increase in departure frequency in routes which experienced partial liberalization compared to fully liberalized ones. This can be explained by the diminishing marginal effect of progressive liberalization on departure frequency. While the effect of liberalization is substantial in improving service quality, there is no evidence of its fare reducing effect.

  • 3.
    Abate, Megersa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Economic effects of air transport market liberalization in Africa2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the aviation industry is increasingly becoming important for Africa's economic development and integration, the ability of airlines to access foreign markets remains hindered by restrictive regulatory policies. Attempts have been made to fully liberalize the intra-African air transport market. Except for general assertions about the merits/demerits of liberalization, our empirical understanding of the welfare effects of such polices in Africa remains rudimentary. This study empirically measures the economic effects of air transport liberalization, mainly on two supply side variables: fare and service quality, measured as departure frequency. The results show up to 40 % increase in departure frequency in routes that experienced some type of liberalization compared to those governed by restrictive bilateral air service agreements. While the effect of liberalization is substantial in improving service quality, there is no evidence of its fare reducing effect.

  • 4.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Energimätning på tåg för rundvirkestransporter på sträckan Mora–Borlänge–Gävle2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The third sub-project of ELVIS demonstration project for longer and heavier freight trains aims to analyze and measure energy usage of heavier trains. With heavier refers to a higher overall weight by more wagons, both loaded and unloaded, than would normally run on the route. The assumption is that heavier trains are able to do (freight) transport more energy efficient. The goal is to primarily test the hypothesis: · That energy consumption per ton can be reduced by using heavier trains. The report also illustrates the difficulties of using existing data for the evaluation of energy consumption on trains. The data in these has not been quality assured for the purposes of this study, which has caused a lot of errors and the credibility of some results are lower than otherwise would be needed. Thus, a conclusion from the project is that it would take a review of the databases of the Swedish Transport Administration on energy use should be studied further, at least if equipment such as their energy meter should be used. Alternatively, mount external equipment on locomotives to thereby generate more useful data; the latter, however, was not possible due to the owner of the locomotive. Given all sources of error associated with the data, the report analyze how the energy of a freight train is due to the gross weight of the train, the number of stops the train makes and drivers' driving style. Findings were that driving style plays a major role, between drivers the different in net energy used is up to 20 percent. Furthermore, there is differences in energy consumption connected to gross weights on the train, but then it's a bit unclear how the results should be interpreted in conjunction with the lack of quality of the data, it takes more measurements to be able to say anything definite. The same applies to the number of stops affecting the use of energy. On the first leg the number of stops had no impact on energy consumption, which it had on the investigation route.

  • 5.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Intermodala transporter: definition, aktörer och omfattning2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Intermodal and combined transport is often used synonymously today. The concept of combined transport has been around much longer and referred to as transportation where railway and a truck are being combined. Nowadays a combined transport often means that the goods either go by rail, inland waterways or sea and by road, or between two transport modes where trucks are not included. Intermodal and combined transport is often used synonymously today. The concept of combined transport has been around much longer and referred to as transportation where railway and a truck are being combined.

    Nowadays a combined transport often means that the goods either go by rail, inland waterways or sea and by road, or between two transport modes where trucks are not included. The EU’s so-called combi directive defines both in the same way and one of the EU Commission’s proposal to amend this directive is that EU should be considered to replace the concept of combined transport with intermodal transport. An intermodal transport precedes by a transportation decision, and this decision is often linked to a specific train path (tågläge in Swedish). If there is shortage of capacity on the track, the goods may have difficulties to be transported by train. This could potentially mean that some (rail) business / transports will not take place and the goods go by road instead.

  • 6.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Kostnader för störningar i infrastrukturen: metodik och fallstudier på väg och järnväg2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study is to illustrate the methodology that can be used in calculations of the cost to society when disruptions in the infrastructure occurs, specifically for traffic on road and rail. The principles and values that are recommended to be used in social cost-benefit analyses (CBA) in the Swedish transport sector are proposed by the ASEK-group (a working-group addressing issues on the application of CBA in the transport sector), and decided by the Swedish Transport Administration. They will be taken as given on the cost side of the CBA in this study, there will not be a benefit side since the interest for this study lies expressively on the cost side. This study is thus not a normative analysis, the aim is instead to study and apply methodologies for valuing (in monetary terms) the consequences of already occurred disturbances. The various ASEK-values require information about several aspect of the trips when calculating the value of travel time and transport time, as well as when calculating the delays and the value of travel time savings in congestion. Even though the ASEK-values are recommended by the Swedish Transport Administration, they are also questioned, especially for freight transport. This is also addressed in the report.

  • 7.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Luftfartens samhällsekonomiska marginalkostnader: delstudie inom SAMKOST2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report is a literature review on the marginal social costs of aviation, and is a sub-project to VTI’s project about updating the knowledge of the external costs of traffic (SAMKOST). The report discusses which impacts of aviation are external, and which are already internalized. It is not entirely clear which impacts that should be considered as the relevant marginal costs for aviation. For example, both congestion and accidents are seen as internalized since they are already taken care of through the air traffic control service, a service that all aircraft must use in Swedish airspace by law. Similar arguments applies to the infrastructure. The large external effect is aviation’s environmental impact. It is separated into three different categories; the impact of noise, air quality and the impact on the climate.

  • 8.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    et al.
    Ramböll .
    Ericson, Johan
    WSP.
    Johansson, Oskar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Ridderstedt, Ivan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Marginalkostnad för luftfartens infrastruktur2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The main purpose of this study is to estimate the marginal costs of aviation infrastructure. But since it not exist a uniform definition of what is the cost base of the aviation infrastructure, there is also a discussion of what costs should be included. An additional purpose of the study is to relate the estimated marginal costs to today's pricing and to investigate whether aviation pays its socio-economic costs.

    Estimates of the marginal cost of utilizing (relevant) airport infrastructure and for operating airline infrastructure is being analyzed using cost data from Stockholm Arlanda Airport and the Civil Aviation Authority. The empirical approach used to analyze cost items is a regression analysis, with adjustments for month-specific variations in travel patterns, when the airport section is investigated, and taking into account regional differences for airports when investigating air traffic control in the towers.

    There are some uncertainties in the study, but in the light of this, the results indicate that the average marginal cost of the infrastructure is around SEK 13 per passenger and SEK1,168 per aircraft started. Corresponding estimation for air traffic management is also uncertain, with results indicating a marginal cost of SEK 373 per flight. Furthermore, it appears that the revenue from marginal cost-based charges could not alone finance the state aviation infrastructure.

  • 9.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Ad hoc-processen: hur används ledig kapacitet i järnvägsnätet?2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    After the Swedish Transport Administration’s adoption of next year's timetable in mid-fall each year, starts the so-called ad hoc process, i.e. requests for train paths that can use spare capacity in the network. VTI received in September 2015 Transport Agency's mission to deepen the understanding of the ad hoc-process, This “notat” reports that assignment. In light of the description that was made, the intention was to also find the measure of the importance of this process in relation to the process leading to adopting a final schedule. It has been found that the Transport Administration’s various information management systems are not designed to enable such a description.

    Thanks to a recent statistical tool, it is possible to observe that nearly 97 percent of the passenger trains booked into the annual timetable process, also actually run. This refers to two thirds of the timetable year 2015. The aim of the Transport Agency/Traffic analysis is to, in the near future, also report similar information about freight train. Behind this figure conceals both an outflow and an inflow of traffic that will be conducted in accordance with the timetable set out in the autumn of each year. However, there is no knowledge of when these changes are implemented, which is of great importance for assessing the degree of flexibility in the ad hoc process. This situation may change as a result of the Transport Agency as of the timetable relating to 2016 for the charges to cancel the allocated capacity. The fee will be higher the closer to the scheduled departure of the train the application is withdrawn. This can help improve the flexibility in the use of the track capacity not reserved in the annual timetabling process. Another consequence may be that the information on the process will improve.

  • 10.
    Allard, Alexandra
    et al.
    Linköping Universitet.
    Takman, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Uddin, Gazi Salah
    Linköping Universitet.
    Ahmed, Ali
    Linköping Universitet.
    The N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve: an empirical evaluation using a panel quantile regression approach2017In: Environmental science and pollution research international, ISSN 0944-1344, E-ISSN 1614-7499, p. 1-14Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We evaluate the N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) using panel quantile regression analysis. We investigate the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP per capita for 74 countries over the period of 1994–2012. We include additional explanatory variables, such as renewable energy consumption, technological development, trade, and institutional quality. We find evidence for the N-shaped EKC in all income groups, except for the upper-middle-income countries. Heterogeneous characteristics are, however, observed over the N-shaped EKC. Finally, we find a negative relationship between renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions, which highlights the importance of promoting greener energy in order to combat global warming.

  • 11.
    Andersson, Henrik
    et al.
    University of Toulouse.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro Universitet.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Institute of Transport Economics.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Economic Analysis and Investment Priorities in Sweden's Transport Sector2018In: Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, ISSN 2194-5888, E-ISSN 2152-2812, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 120-146Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Beginning as a planning tool within Sweden's national road administration some 50 years ago, benefit-cost analysis (BCA) has come to be a pillar of the national transport policy because of subsequent strategic choices made by the national parliament. These choices made it necessary to widen the analysis of costs to include also externalities and a foregone conclusion was that efficient investment priorities should be made based on BCA. But no one asked whether the political decision makers or the BCA models were up to that task. This paper reviews the institutional framework and practice of BCA in Sweden for transport infrastructure investment, and considers design issues that have been and still are debated, such as whether the discount rate should include a risk term and how to account for the marginal cost of public funds. A main concern with BCA results is the underestimation of construction costs, making transport sector projects look better than they are. Several ex post analyses have established that a higher NPV ratio increases the probability of being included in the investment program proposal prepared by the agency. The requirement to let projects undergo BCA seems to make planners trim project proposals by trying to reduce investment costs without significantly reducing benefits. This relationship is weaker among profitable projects. Moreover, there is no correlation between rate of return and the probability of being included in the final program, which is established on political grounds.

  • 12.
    Andersson, Henrik
    et al.
    Toulouse School of Economics.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Ögren, Mikael
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Efterfrågan på tystnad: skattning av betalningsviljan för icke-marginella förändringar av vägtrafikbuller2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Efterfrågan på tystnad från vägbullerexponering skattas i detta projekt baserat på båda stegen i en så kallad hedonisk modell. Vi använder data från sju olika kommuner runt om i Sverige. Baserat på efterfrågekurvan kan vi räkna ut betalningsviljor för icke-marginella förändringar i bullerexponering från vägtrafik. Dessa resultat har stor användning i samhällsekonomiska kalkyler inom transportsektorn. Våra skattningsresultat visar att betalningsviljan för en bullerreducering från 66 till 65 dB är 2211 kronor per individ och år och 477 kronor per individ och år för en bullerreducering från 56 till 55 dB. Resultaten visar ingen betalningsvilja för bullerreduceringar under 52,8 dB. För en bullerreducering från 66 dB till 52,8 dB och alla lägre bullernivåer är betalningsviljan 15 225 kronor. Denna summa är även kostnaden för att utsättas för 66 dB vägbuller per individ och år.

  • 13.
    Andersson, Henrik
    et al.
    Toulouse School of Economics LERNA Université Toulouse 1.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Ögren, Mikael
    Göteborgs universitet.
    Traffic noise effects of property prices: hedonic estimates based on multiple noise indicators2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Valuation of traffic noise abatement based on hedonic pricing models of the property market has traditionally measured the noise as the equivalent, or another average, level. What is not captured in such a noise indicator is the maximum noise level of a vehicle passage. In this study, we incorporate the maximum noise level in the hedonic model letting the property price depend on both the equivalent noise level and the maximum noise level. Hedonic models for both rail and road noise are estimated. Data consists of characteristics of sold properties, property-specific noise calculation, and geographical variables.

    We use the hedonic approach to estimate the marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for maximum noise abatement where we model the effect as the maximum noise level subtracted with the equivalent noise level. Furthermore, we control for the equivalent noise level in the estimations. The estimated results show that including the maximum noise level in the model has influence on the property prices, but only for rail and not for road. This means that for road we cannot reject the hypothesis that WTP for noise abatement is based on the equivalent noise level only. For rail, on the other hand, we estimate the marginal WTP for the maximum noise level and it turns out to be substantial. Also, the marginal WTP for the equivalent noise levels seems to be unaffected by the inclusion of the maximum noise level in the model. More research of this novel topic is requested though.

  • 14.
    Andersson, Mats
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Marginal railway track renewal costs: A survival data approach2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 87, p. 68-77Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, renewal costs for railway tracks are investigated using survival analysis. The purpose is to derive the effect from increased traffic volumes on rail renewal cycle lengths and to calculate associated marginal costs. A flow sample of censored data containing almost 1300 observations on the Swedish main railway network is used. We specify Weibull regression models, and estimate deterioration elasticities for total tonnage as well as for passenger and freight tonnages separately. Marginal costs are calculated as a change in present values of renewal costs from premature renewal following increased traffic volumes. The marginal cost for total tonnage is estimated to approximately SEK 0.002 per gross ton kilometre.

  • 15.
    Andersson, Matts
    et al.
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Thörn, Helena Braun
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Gomér, Ylva
    WSP Analysis & Strategy.
    The effect of minimum parking requirements on the housing stock2016In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 49, p. 206-215Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The cost of parking is in many cities subsidized and instead channelled through higher housing prices, wages, taxes, etc. The effects on other markets are principally well known, but the work on the area is limited. In this paper, we study how parking norms affect the size of the housing stock. Our analysis is based on a model of the rental, asset- and construction markets, the results are quality-assured by interviews with market actors. Prices and profits are affected when constructors are forced, through parking norms, to build more parking spaces than the customers demand. Parking norms reduce the housing stock by 1.2% and increase rents by 2.4% (SEK 300) in our example suburb.

  • 16.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Örebro University School of Business.
    Avoiding path dependence of distributional weights: Lessons from climate change economic assessment2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

     In some cost benefit analysis (CBA) applications, such as those used for the valuation of climate change damage, distributional weights are used to account for diminishing utility of marginal income. This is usually done by means of intra-temporal distributional weights, which are combined with discounting to account for inter-temporal equity and efficiency. Here, I show that this approach might introduce some inconsistencies in terms of path dependence. In short, this inconsistency means that regional economic growth is double counted. This is because income weighting is performed both through the discount rate and through the distributional weights such that growth shows up twice in the weighting process. Using the PAGE2002 model, it is found that the inconsistency problem in the original model erases the influence of distributional weights on the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2) compared to a standard CBA approach. The alternative approaches proposed here yield about 20 %–40 % higher values of SCCO2 than the old approach. While this has been briefly commented on in previous work, it has not yet been more thoroughly analyzed nor communicated to the broader community of climate policy and economic analysts who are not deeply interested in the specifications of the climate impact assessment models.

  • 17.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Cost-Benefit Analysis of climate policy and long term public investments2016Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This compilation dissertation consists of four essays with the common theme of welfare analysis of long-term public investments. The first two essays focus on analysis of climate change mitigation, i.e., the social cost of carbon dioxide. The third essay focuses on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of transport investment projects, while the last essay takes a broader perspective on welfare analysis.

    List of papers
    1. Avoiding path dependence of distributional weights: Lessons from climate change economic assessment
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Avoiding path dependence of distributional weights: Lessons from climate change economic assessment
    2012 (English)Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

     In some cost benefit analysis (CBA) applications, such as those used for the valuation of climate change damage, distributional weights are used to account for diminishing utility of marginal income. This is usually done by means of intra-temporal distributional weights, which are combined with discounting to account for inter-temporal equity and efficiency. Here, I show that this approach might introduce some inconsistencies in terms of path dependence. In short, this inconsistency means that regional economic growth is double counted. This is because income weighting is performed both through the discount rate and through the distributional weights such that growth shows up twice in the weighting process. Using the PAGE2002 model, it is found that the inconsistency problem in the original model erases the influence of distributional weights on the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2) compared to a standard CBA approach. The alternative approaches proposed here yield about 20 %–40 % higher values of SCCO2 than the old approach. While this has been briefly commented on in previous work, it has not yet been more thoroughly analyzed nor communicated to the broader community of climate policy and economic analysts who are not deeply interested in the specifications of the climate impact assessment models.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Örebro: , 2012. p. 20
    Series
    CTS Working Paper
    Keywords
    Economics, Climate change, Cost benefit analysis, Distribution (gen)
    National Category
    Economics
    Research subject
    SAB, Qb Managerial economics
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10840 (URN)
    Note

    Revised 2016

    Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
    2. Temporal Aspects of the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Temporal Aspects of the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
    2012 (English)Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the temporal aspects of the social cost of greenhouse gases (GHGs). I am particularly interested in the interaction between time of emissions, discounting, and type of GHG (where different GHGs have different atmospheric lifetimes). I show graphically how the social costs of GHGs depend on different parameter values and how the global damage potential for methane and sulfur hexafluoride evolves over time. I find that that the calculation period ultimately should be modeled to be consistent with the discount rate and that the “global-warming potential” concept is unsuitable for calculating of the social cost of GHGs other than carbon dioxide.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Örebro: , 2012. p. 14
    Series
    CTS Working Paper ; 2012:3
    Keywords
    Greenhouse gas, Cost benefit analysis, Emission, Cost, Time, Calculation
    National Category
    Economics
    Research subject
    SAB, Qa Economics and finance
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10839 (URN)
    Note

    Revised 2016

    Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
    3. Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?
    2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Reducing uncertainty can still be worthwhile, however, because of the huge amounts of money at stake: a 10% reduction in general uncertainty can increase the realized benefits of a national infrastructure investment plan by nearly 100 million euro (assuming that decisions are based on the CBAs). We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Stockholm: , 2016. p. 18
    Keywords
    Cost benefit analysis, Transport infrastructure, Investment, Decision process
    National Category
    Economics
    Research subject
    SAB, Qa Economics and finance
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10841 (URN)
    Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
    4. Household production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Household production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption
    2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Chetty (2006) developed a new method of estimating the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption (EMUC) from observed work time responses to wage changes and derived an upper bound of 2 for this parameter. Here I show that the omission of household production in Chetty’s model may lead to bias, and perform a numerical sensitivity analysis of Chetty’s results in this respect. I develop a new model that includes household production from which I derive new, unbiased EMUC formulas. I offer empirical estimates based on current evidence of the included parameters, suggesting a lower bound for EMUC of about 0.9.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Stockholm: , 2016. p. 38
    Series
    CTS Working Paper ; 2016:10
    Keywords
    Economics, Household, Production, Mathematical model
    National Category
    Economics
    Research subject
    SAB, Qa Economics and finance
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10842 (URN)
    Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
  • 18.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Reducing uncertainty can still be worthwhile, however, because of the huge amounts of money at stake: a 10% reduction in general uncertainty can increase the realized benefits of a national infrastructure investment plan by nearly 100 million euro (assuming that decisions are based on the CBAs). We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

  • 19.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm. Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Household production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Chetty (2006) developed a new method of estimating the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption (EMUC) from observed work time responses to wage changes and derived an upper bound of 2 for this parameter. Here I show that the omission of household production in Chetty’s model may lead to bias, and perform a numerical sensitivity analysis of Chetty’s results in this respect. I develop a new model that includes household production from which I derive new, unbiased EMUC formulas. I offer empirical estimates based on current evidence of the included parameters, suggesting a lower bound for EMUC of about 0.9.

  • 20.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Örebro Universitet.
    Household Production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption2017In: The B.E. Journals in Economic Analysis & Policy, ISSN 1935-1682, E-ISSN 1935-1682, Vol. 17, no 4, article id 20160265Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The popular approach to estimating the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption (EMUC) (Chetty 2006, "A New Method of Estimating Risk Aversion." American Economic Review 96 (5):1821-1834. doi:10.1257/aer.96.5.1821. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.96.5.1821) is here extended by including household production. It is shown that this generalization of the model is important as omission of household production may lead to bias, as demonstrated in a numerical sensitivity analysis. An extended model with household production is used to derive new EMUC formulas. Empirical estimates based on current evidence of the included parameters suggest a lower bound for EMUC of about 0.9.

  • 21.
    Asplund, Disa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Örebro University School of Business .
    Temporal Aspects of the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the temporal aspects of the social cost of greenhouse gases (GHGs). I am particularly interested in the interaction between time of emissions, discounting, and type of GHG (where different GHGs have different atmospheric lifetimes). I show graphically how the social costs of GHGs depend on different parameter values and how the global damage potential for methane and sulfur hexafluoride evolves over time. I find that that the calculation period ultimately should be modeled to be consistent with the discount rate and that the “global-warming potential” concept is unsuitable for calculating of the social cost of GHGs other than carbon dioxide.

  • 22.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Örebro Universitet.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, p. 195-205Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty.

    Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Provided that decisions are based on CBA outcomes, reducing uncertainty is still worthwhile, however, because of the huge sums at stake. Even moderate reductions of uncertainties about unit values, investment costs, future demand and project effects may increase the realized benefits infrastructure investment plans by tens or hundreds of million euros. We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

  • 23.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. K2.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. K2.
    A new model for analyzing differentiated fares and frequencies for urban bus services in small cities: Case study for the city of Uppsala2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for welfare evaluation of fare and frequency policies for bus services in smaller or medium-sized cities handling both congestion and crowding in public transport. The model with data for the city of Uppsala. Two scenarios with marginal increases in frequencies and fares are evaluated. Then four main optimal policies are evaluated: fares with unchanged base line frequencies, frequencies with unchanged base line fares, simultaneous optimization of fares and frequencies and finally a scenario called the Pareto scenario where frequencies and fares are optimized subject to the condition that no consumer group (defined by zone, time period, origin-destination pair) should be worse of in terms of generalized cost of trip.

    The results indicate that there are large, seemingly robust welfare gains from reducing public transport supply in Uppsala, especially in the outer zone of the city where reductions compared to the current situation are rather drastic. In comparison, welfare gains from adjusting fares are smaller. As there are large distributional effects in the welfare optimum, introduction of such a policy it is likely to be controversial. However, in an additionally examined scenario, almost all of the potential social welfare gains from the welfare optimal scenario is achieved while no consumer in any zone or time period is worse off compared to present policy. In this scenario, the total number of public transport passengers are increased and emissions are reduced compared to the current situation.

  • 24.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Westin, Jonas
    CERUM, Umeå universitet.
    Modellering av slingor inom sjötransporter2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish national freight transport model system Samgods is a freight model that simulates logistics decision at a disaggregated firm-to-firm level. The model calculates total annual transport demand in Sweden for all transport modes based on a deterministic cost minimization approach. The model cannot consolidate commodities of different commodity types in the same vessel, train or truck and can only simulate vessels using direct routes between two ports. This implies that many of the features of sea transport such as utilizing larger vessels and building loops to consolidate goods from different ports is not possible in the current Samgods version. In this paper, we analyze the effect of removing restrictions in sea transportation especially by allowing the ship operators to construct and utilize loops. In the new model, LIFREM (Loops Including FREight Model), the shippers’ choice of sea transport routes is modelled as a mixed integer linear programming optimization problem. In doing so, we make use of a case study on sea transport of forest products from Northern Sweden to Western Europe. The results show that allowing predefined loops decreases total logistic cost by 10% and allowing the shipper to freely select loops decreases the cost by 21%. These results show that modelling of loops is important in order to realistically represent the attractiveness of the sea transport mode. This is also confirmed by the fact that the sea mode share increases by 2–4% in LIFREM when loops are allowed.

  • 25.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    Stockholm City Transport Administration.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    The city as a driver of new mobility patterns, cycling and gender equality: Travel behaviour trends in Stockholm 1985–20152018In: Travel Behaviour & Society, ISSN 2214-367X, E-ISSN 2214-3688, Vol. 13, p. 71-87Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyses changes in individual travel behaviour in Stockholm County over 30 years, using three large cross-sectional travel survey data sets. It shows that travel patterns have diverged over time between city, suburban and rural residents. The trends in travel behaviour that we find are consistent with changes in the labour market, ICT use, land-use and transport policy, gender equality, and population composition trends. The inner city has become increasingly attractive: the share of trips is to the inner city is increasing for all purposes, socio-economic groups, and residential locations. The reduction of car traffic in response to the introduction of the congestion charges in 2006 is more than compensated by an increase in bicycle and transit trips to the inner city. Travel times by car are increasing in the city, although the car traffic volumes have decreased. The travel behaviour gender gap has closed completely in the inner city, but not further out in the region or in the rest of the country. Understanding long term trends in travel behaviour in different population segments, and the context under which they occur, helps to understand how the conditions, opportunities and constraints for different population segments are changing, which is key for transport policy and land-use planning. Since the societal trends driving travel behaviour in Stockholm and Sweden are much the same in many cities and countries, the findings are of general relevance.

  • 26.
    Bergström, Anna
    et al.
    Karlstads universitet.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Modeling passenger train delay distributions: evidence and implications2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper addresses the lack of reliability within the Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time in the network.

    Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size, but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and expected delay over different time scales.

  • 27.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Att bedöma säkerhetsnivån på spårbunden trafik i Sverige: en granskning av Transportstyrelsens befintliga data och förslag på fördjupade analyser2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) has been commissioned by The Swedish Transport Agency to analyse if the latter’s existing data can be used to estimate the level of safety of rail traffic in Sweden in a manner meeting the standards of the European commission. The analysis will show if the required information is available through the existing system, or if there is an increased need for data collection, and if so, what and how it should be collected. The commission also includes suggesting areas for further analysis. In the report, first a short description of the Swedish Transport Agency’s internal IT-system TRAP event is given. In TRAP event, serious accidents, incidents, and significant errors/flaws reported by the operators, are registered. We also make an assessment of the feasibility of estimating safety measures, defined by the European Commission, from TRAP event data, rather than through an annual safety report from the operators as is done today. Then we will give suggestions as to how the existing follow-up of accidents and risk factors can be refined, which analytical models that are feasible, and finally give suggestions for further data collection to enable in-depth analyses. The Swedish Transport Agency has today a large amount of information about events, vehicles, companies and infrastructure stored in different registers in the TRAP system. If it were possible to access more of these variables using search terms, if the data from different register in a higher degree than today could be combined, both within The Swedish Transport Agency and to databases managed by other agencies, more thorough analyses concerning incidents and accidents in rail traffic would be possible. However, today some information regarding many events is missing and more effort, both from The Swedish Transport Agency and the operators, is necessary in order to enable such analyses. Also, data regarding the common safety measures should be added to TRAP event to explore the relations between the safety measures, vehicle types, infrastructure, operators, etc.

  • 28.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    En granskning av information över tågförseningar år 20122014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this report is to document the quality of data from the Swedish Transport Administration regarding train delays, in order to assess whether it can be used to deepen the understanding of the size of the delays and the conditions that generate delays. In order to limit the work we have only considered quarter 1 of year 2012. The overall impression is that the quality of the data has become much better. It is not obvious whether this is due to better reporting/insertion of data or if new methods to extract data from existing systems have been developed. It is also important to emphasize that with the increased knowledge of the data the possibilities to deal with some ambiguities that we earlier saw as inaccuracies in the material have increased. Our hope is that with data from year 2013 and onwards it should be possible to perform structured analyses of delays in the whole rail network in Sweden. As a first step towards analysing patterns of delays in the rail traffic we have presented a description of the delay pattern on the so called “Dalabanan”, i.e. the traffic between Mora/Falun/Borlänge and Stockholm, and also at “Uppsala-pendeln” between Uppsala and Stockholm.

  • 29.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Estimating policy values for in-vehicle comfort and crowding reduction in local public transport2017In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 106, p. 453-472Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study estimates policy values for comfort, defined as getting a seat, and crowding reduction on board local public transport in Sweden. We use stated-preference (SP) data and present crowding as a mode-neutral crowding level among the standing travelers depicted in images presented to the respondents. We analyze whether there are differences in the willingness to pay (WTP) for comfort and crowding reduction among the three largest urban areas in Sweden. In general, we find no significantly different preferences for sitting and crowding reduction among the three urban areas. Still, the point estimates differ in some cases, indicating that there may be differences across the three urban areas, but the estimates have large confidence intervals that overlap each other. Also, these differences are likely to have resulted from mode-share differences and not from differences in preferences across the urban areas. Some significant differences are found among the modes, for example, a higher disutility of standing on a bus versus on a tram. These mode-specific estimates can be used as policy values for a given tram line or metro line. Nevertheless, we also pooled the data suggesting average WTP estimates for sitting and crowding reductions that can be used for national cost–benefit analysis policy in all large urban areas in Sweden where crowding on local public transport occurs. Importantly, analysis of heterogeneity and SP-design differences shows that the results are in line with empirical knowledge of the value of travel time savings.

  • 30.
    Bratt-Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Flam, Harry
    Stockholms universitet.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Kågeson, Per
    KTH.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Jättestor nytta, men ännu större kostnad2016In: Dagens NyheterArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 31.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Stockholm City Transportation Administration.
    Should values of time be differentiated?2018In: Transport reviews, ISSN 0144-1647, E-ISSN 1464-5327, p. 1-19Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore the issue of differentiating the valuation of travel time savings (VTTS) in transport cost-benefit analysis, summarising and discussing theories forming the basis for arguments for and against VTTS differentiation. We stress some important implications, insights and consequences of different assumptions relating to these theories, many of which we feel have been underappreciated in much of the CBA literature and practice. We derive a welfare rule including a social cost for monetary redistributions and show the implications for how the VTTS can be defined in different choice situations. Crucially, the applicable VTTS definition depends on whether travel costs (fares) are under public control and to whom benefits accrue in the long run. In some choice situations, the VTTS should be controlled for differences in income, but it is important to always take into account differences in marginal utilities of time (e.g. across travel time components, modes and trip purposes). Using Swedish data, we show that controlling the VTTS for income differences changes the VTTS only slightly; the variation in VTTS across modes, trip lengths, trip purposes apparently stems primarily from differences in marginal utilities of time rather than income.

  • 32.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. KTH .
    Fung, Chau Man
    Katholieke Univ Leuven, Leuven, Belgium..
    Proost, Stef
    Katholieke Univ Leuven, Leuven, Belgium..
    Yan, Zifei
    KTH.
    Do buses hinder cyclists or is it the other way around?: Optimal bus fares, bus stops and cycling tolls2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 111, p. 326-346Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper optimises the number of bus stops, and prices for car, bus and cycling in the busiest inner city corridor in Stockholm. We adopt the representative consumer approach and calibrate the current equilibrium using the quasi-linear utility function. We find that the number of bus stops is already close to optimal. Welfare would increase if the peak frequency was increased, if the bus fares were lowered and differentiated between long trips and short trips and, and that the toll for longer car trips was increased. The optimal toll for cyclists, and the welfare benefit from it, is small and does not compensate the transaction costs. The distributional effects of bus fare changes and higher car tolls are small because on one hand, high income groups place more value on travel time gains, but on the other hand, low income groups travel less frequently by car. Surprisingly, we find that in the welfare optimum, the bus service only requires a small subsidy due to congestion in the bus lane, crowding in the buses, and extra boarding and alighting time per passenger. The Mohring effect is limited because the demand, and thereby the baseline frequency, is already high.

  • 33.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Harry, Flam
    Stockholms universitet.
    Mörth, Ulrika
    Stockholms universitet.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK. KTH.
    Infrastrukturbeslut måste grundas på samhällsekonomiska kalkyler2016In: Dagens nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447, no 2016-02-17Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 34.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Harry, Flam
    Stockholms universitet.
    Mörth, Ulrika
    Stockholms universitet.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK. KTH.
    Nästan alla stora byggen av järnvägar är olönsamma2016In: Dagens nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447, no Jan 28, 2016Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 35.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. KTH.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 107, p. 35-51Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Time-of-day dependent cordon-based congestion charging systems were introduced in Stockholm in 2006, and in Gothenburg in 2013. The Stockholm system was significantly extended in 2016, and the peak charge has been increased in the two cities. This paper analyses the effects of the first decade with the Swedish congestion charges, specifically effects of the system updates, and draws policy lessons for the years to come. Should we introduce congestion charges in more cities? Should we extend the systems that we have? We synthesize previous research findings and focus on the long-term effects that have varied over time including the recent years: the price elasticities on the traffic volume across the cordon, the revenue and system operating cost, the public and political support, and consequences for the transport planning process. We also explore the effects on peak and off-peak, and different types of traffic (trucks, company cars and private passenger cars), because of access to novel data that make this analysis possible. We find that the price elasticities have increased over time in Stockholm, but decreased in Gothenburg. We find that the public support increased in the two cities after their introduction until the systems were revised; since then, the public support has declined in both cities. We find that the price elasticity was substantially lower when the charging levels were increased, and when the Stockholm system was extended, than when the charges were first introduced, a likely reason being that the most price-sensitive traffic was already priced off-the road at the introduction.

  • 36.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Trafikverkets modeller ger bra underlag2016In: Dagens IndustriArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 37.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. KTH.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro universitet.
    Kågeson, Per
    KTH.
    Flam, Harry
    Stockholms universitet.
    Stoppa Ostlänken nu!2016In: Dagens Industri, no 3 augustiArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 38.
    Carlson, Annelie
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Törnquist Krasemann, Johanna
    Linköpings universitet.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nuvarande förutsättningar och försök med längre godståg mellan Gävle och Malmö2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The second sub-project of ELVIS demonstration project for longer and heavier freight trains aims to analyze the actual conditions for the use of longer trains and to evaluate the trial where a 730 metres long demonstration train (instead of a maximum of 630 metres) was operating between Gävle and Malmö 6–7 October 2012. One conclusion is that it is technically possible to operate trains that are longer than 630 metres but there are organizational barriers. To use the infrastructure more efficient, the project proposes the use of dedicated channels for longer freight trains in specific corridors as a temporary solution. The comparison of the demonstration train with up to 630 metres reference trains was hampered of that the central data describing the reference trains were difficult to access and partially uncertain. An important conclusion is that a better mapping of the current situation is needed in order to make reliable quantitative analysis. It was possible to compile information about the electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer of the demonstration train and the reference trains. However, it is difficult to quantify how the length of the train, the weight of the train, the speed, the number of stops etc. influence the electricity consumption one by one – both due to the quality of the data set and the fact that there is a quite large variation in electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer regardless which of the factors is studied. The impact of the topography and the length and weight of the train on the electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer can however be shown. The electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer of the demonstration train is generally lower than the consumption of the reference trains. It is possible, however, to conclude that electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer is generally not higher for longer trains, but it is impossible to say that consumption is generally lower. The literature and discussions with firms indicate that industry can reduce transport costs by using longer freight trains. However, economies of scale can only be exploited if locomotives traction capacity is not fully utilized today. It is obvious that the access to the rail infrastructure determine which train lengths and weights are commercially interesting. The electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer can possibly also reduced by using longer trains, but this cannot be stated without further notice. Running longer freight trains on a larger scale requires investments in tracks, terminals etc. The rough socio-economic calculations for the 750 metre long trains that have been carried out so far indicate that the investment costs are relatively modest. Though there is a need for analyzes for various train lengths as it is not obvious that the minimum length of 750 metres that is required for the TEN-T core network from 2030 is optimal.

  • 39.
    Carlén, Björn
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Värdering av koldioxidutsläpp från svenska transporter: en kommentar2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report the researcher discusses the problem of assessing the value of Swedish carbon dioxide emissions, given the EU’s climate policy architecture. An important implication of the EU’s emission targets is that when an agent increases its emissions some other agent has to abate correspondingly more so that the aggregate emissions are kept at the target level. Thus, such an emission increment does not increase the risk for climate change. Hereby the approach of valuating carbon emission by assessing the environmental damage has lost its relevance for these emissions. On the other hand, someone else has to bear additional abatement costs. These costs are the economic consequences of increased emissions, e.g. due to increased traffic in Sweden, and those that we are trying to assess here. These costs may be seen as the marginal political valuation of carbon dioxide emissions.

  • 40. Carlén, Björn
    et al.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro universitet.
    Liu, Xing
    Örebro universitet.
    Lunander, Anders
    Örebro universitet.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Mellin, Anna
    Havs- och vattenmyndigheten.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Sorkina, Edith
    Göteborgs universitet.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Landbaserade godstransporter, klimat och styrmedel: underlagsrapporter 1-102014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI notat 28-2014 contains the ten underlying reports which is the base for VTI report 831: “Land based freight transports, climate and policy – Summary report”. In VTI report 831, the researchers discuss greenhouse gas emissions from freight transport and how they could be reduced. They address these questions from several different angles. For example, they discuss the introduction of so-called green corridors and propose tools to solve the complex coordination problems that are associated with these corridors. Furthermore, there is a discussion on how to view the climate change impact from shifting road to rail or electrified vehicles on road.

  • 41.
    de Jong, Gerard
    et al.
    University of Leeds.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Tavasszy, Lori
    Delft University of Technology.
    Ben-Akiva, Moshe
    MIT.
    Recent developments in national and international freight transport models within Europe2013In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, Vol. 40, no 2, p. 347-371Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The past decade has seen many new freight transport models for use in transport planning by public authorities. Some of these models have developed new concepts, such as logistics modules, inclusion of transshipments, storage and sourcing and the determination of shipment size.

    This paper provides a review of the European literature on freight transport models that operate at the national or international level and have been developed since 2004. The introduction of elements of logistics thinking is identified as a common theme in recently developed models, and further worked out. Furthermore, ideas on what might be the next key developments in freight transport modelling are presented.

  • 42.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Distributional effects of taxes on car fuel, use, ownership and purchases2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyse distributional effects of four car-related tax instruments: an increase of the fuel tax, a new kilometre tax, an increased CO2-differentiated vehicle ownership tax, and a CO2-differentiated purchase tax on new cars. Distributional effects are analysed with respect to income, lifecycle category and several spatial dimensions.

    All the analysed taxes are progressive over most of the income distribution, but just barely regressive if the absolutely highest and lowest incomes are included. However, the variation within income groups is substantial; the fraction of the population who suffer substantial welfare losses relative to income is much higher in lower income groups.

    The two most important geographical distinctions are between rural and urban areas (including even small towns), and between central cities and satellites/suburbs; these spatial dimensions matter much more for distributional effects than for example whether an area is remote or sparsely populated.

  • 43.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Distributional effects of taxes on car fuel, use, ownership and purchases2018In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130, Vol. 15, p. 1-15Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyse distributional effects of four car-related tax instruments: an increase of the fuel tax, a new kilometre tax, an increased CO2-differentiated vehicle ownership tax, and a CO2-differentiated purchase tax on new cars. Distributional effects are analysed with respect to income, lifecycle category, and spatial dimensions. The analysed taxes are progressive over most of the income distribution, but barely regressive if the highest and lowest incomes are included. However, the fraction of the population who suffer substantial welfare losses relative to income is much higher in lower income groups. We also study revenue recycling schemes; when these are included, the combined effect of tax and recycling is progressive. Considering geographical differences; rural areas carry a larger burden of fuel and vehicle taxes than urban areas, and satellites/suburbs carry a larger burden than central cities. However, rural areas are affected remarkably similar regardless of where in the country they are located.

  • 44.
    Eriksson, Per Erik
    et al.
    Luleå Tekniska Universitet.
    Lingegard, Sofia
    KTH.
    Borg, Lena
    KTH.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Procurement of Railway Infrastructure Projects: A European Benchmarking Study2017In: Civil Engineering Journal, ISSN 2476-3055, Vol. 3, no 4, p. 199-213Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This benchmarking study compares how railway investments are procured in five European countries: Sweden, Norway, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK. In total, 19 procurement managers and project managers were interviewed. This study compares the national rail clients' procurement strategies regarding: delivery system, reward system, contractor selection, and collaboration model. Historically, these clients have used in-house production. The first step towards a gradually increased usage of the market was to outsource the construction activities while keeping the design and development competence in-house. All five countries have mainly used Design-Bid-Build contracts in their initial outsourcing. However, the last few years there is a discernible trend in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and the UK towards allocating more design and development responsibilities to contractors (i.e. Design-Build contracts) and increasing the strategic focus on cooperation. The UK and the Netherlands are forerunners in this trend that can be viewed as a third step in the transition towards a market oriented railway sector. Norway and Sweden is in the middle of this transition, whereas Germany has not initiated this change. The transition towards a gradually increased usage of the market has two main dimensions; degree of cooperation and degree of contractor freedom, which differs among the countries. The UK and Sweden focus on increasing both these dimensions, while The Netherlands and Norway mostly focus on increasing the degree of contractor freedom. Germany still limits both dimensions by performing design and development in-house and letting contractors compete for construction work in Design-Bid-Build contracts. Due to historical and cultural reasons, Deutsche Bahn in Germany is very hesitant to engage in collaboration with external suppliers; focusing on competition is considered more appropriate and less controversial.

  • 45.
    Flam, Harry
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Kungliga Tekniska högskolan.
    Mörth, Ulrika
    Stockholms universitet.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vart är vi på väg?: Systemfel i transportpolitiken2016Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 46.
    Forsstedt, Sara
    et al.
    Transportstyrelsen.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro Universitet.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Yarmuchamedov, Sherzod
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Hur väl fungerar försäkringsbranschen?2015In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, no 6, p. 7p. 40-47Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Ekonomisk teori visar hur försäkringssystem kan bidra till ökad välfärd. Men den visar också att det finns gränser för hur mycket trygghet vi kan eller bör skaffa oss genom försäkringar. Med unika mikrodata undersöker vi i denna artikel ett antal frågeställningar om försäkringsmarknadens effektivitet. Resultaten har betydelse för förståelsen av hur informationsasymmetrier hanteras av försäkringsbranschen, samt underlag för vissa policyrekommendationer när det gäller trafiksäkerhet och fordonsförsäkringar.

  • 47.
    Forsstedt, Sara
    et al.
    Transportstyrelsen.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Samhällsekonomisk analys i regelgivningsarbetet: Avrapportering av inledande delprojekt2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Transportstyrelsen genomför konsekvensutredningar bland annat avseende förslag till förändringar i föreskrifter, framställan till regelförändringar och som en del i regeringsuppdrag. Myndigheten har under senare år identifierat ett behov av att vidga innehållet i konsekvensutredningarna för att kunna bedöma om nya och förändrade regleringar bidrar till en transport-försörjning som är samhällsekonomiskt effektiv. Ett utvecklingsarbete har pågått sedan myndigheten bildades 2009.

    Inom ramen för ett pågående forskningsprojekt genomfört av Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS) – Samhällsekonomisk analys av regleringar – studeras effekterna av de förändringar som genomförts. Syftet är att analysera de problem som uppkommer i det praktiska arbetet med genomförandet av konsekvensanalyser av samhällsekonomisk effektivitet och att, baserat på resultaten, utveckla en mer generell metodik för hur arbetet ska genomföras och vad som bör ingå i den samhällsekonomiska analysen.

  • 48.
    Forward, Sonja
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Lindgren, Hanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Stave, Christina
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Traffic and road users, Driver and vehicle.
    Henriksson, Per
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Nyberg, Jonna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Effekterna av begränsat antal handledarskap: en utvärdering2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Formerly, a private driving tutor could have an unlimited number of approvals, but new regulations limit the number to 15. The overall purpose of this study is to determine whether this limit on the number of approvals for practice driving a private tutor can have has had any effect on unlawful driving school operations. Another important aim is to offer suggestions for alternative measures to curtail such activity in the driver’s training field. We have taken three approaches to addressing these issues, i.e.: a register study, an interview study, and a survey study. The results of the interview study indicate that, regarding illegal driving school activities, a host of services are available for purchase: falsified tutoring permits, private driving instructions, written examinations filmed on site and that others can access, help to pass the theoretical test by providing the correct answers via an earpiece and booking the appointment for a driving test. According to the interviewees, the most common is to offer private driving tutoring in return for payment. Opinions vary as to the scope of such unlawful activities from minor to extremely extensive in scope. However, the results of the survey study offer indications that relatively extensive unlawful activities are taking place. As to whether the regulations had a positive or negative impact on the unlawful driving school activities, the interviewees were in relative agreement that the regulations had no effect whatsoever. The argument was that those currently engaged in the illegal driving schools, or at any rate the more serious offenders, are sophisticated enough that they would surely circumvent these regulations. Despite this some of them wanted further reductions, even though they did not believe that this reduction would suffice. For them it was important to clearly demonstrate that it is a private instruction and no a professional activity. In general terms, the study identified deficiencies in the current driving licence system that could undermine confidence that Swedish driving licences have been obtained legally. The report ends with 16 different measures which could curtail unlawful activity. This means that no single measure will solve the problem by itself.

  • 49.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    University of Copenhagen.
    Lindberg, Per Olov
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Mattsson, Lars-Göran
    KTH.
    Weibull, Jörgen
    KTH.
    A note on the invariance of the distribution of the maximum2018In: Journal of Mathematical Economics, ISSN 0304-4068, E-ISSN 1873-1538, Vol. 74, p. 56-61Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many models in economics involve discrete choices where a decision-maker selects the best alternative from a finite set. Viewing the array of values of the alternatives as a random vector, the decision-maker draws a realization and chooses the alternative with the highest value. The analyst is then interested in the choice probabilities and in the value of the best alternative. The random vector has the invariance property if the distribution of the value of a specific alternative, conditional on that alternative being chosen, is the same, regardless of which alternative is considered. This note shows that the invariance property holds if and only if the marginal distributions of the random components are positive powers of each other, even when allowing for quite general statistical dependence among the random components. We illustrate the analytical power of the invariance property by way of examples.

  • 50.
    Gospic, Katarina
    et al.
    Karolinska Institutet .
    Sundberg, Marcus
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Maeder, Johanna
    Karolinska Institutet .
    Fransson, Peter
    Karolinska Institutet .
    Petrovic, Predrag
    Karolinska Institutet .
    Isacsson, Gunnar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlström, Anders
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Ingvar, Martin
    Karolinska Institutet .
    Altruism costs-the cheap signal from amygdala2014In: Social Cognitive & Affective Neuroscience, ISSN 1749-5016, E-ISSN 1749-5024, Vol. 9, no 9, p. 1325-1332Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    When people state their willingness to pay for something, the amount usually differs from the behavior in a real purchase situation. The discrepancy between a hypothetical answer and the real act is called hypothetical bias. We investigated neural processes of hypothetical bias regarding monetary donations to public goods using fMRI with the hypothesis that amygdala codes for real costs. Real decisions activated amygdala more than hypothetical decisions. This was observed for both accepted and rejected proposals. The more the subjects accepted real donation proposals the greater was the activity in rostral anterior cingulate cortex-a region known to control amygdala but also neural processing of the cost-benefit difference. The presentation of a charitable donation goal evoked an insula activity that predicted the later decision to donate. In conclusion, we have identified the neural mechanisms underlying real donation behavior, compatible with theories on hypothetical bias. Our findings imply that the emotional system has an important role in real decision making as it signals what kind of immediate cost and reward an outcome is associated with.

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