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  • 301.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    En modell för produktivitetsanalys av väginvesteringar2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The construction industry’s productivity performance, measured on an aggregate level, is dismal compared to other industries. Despite a substandard performance, no reasons have been established. One explanation is that disaggregate data facilitating a deeper analysis of the development has not been available. A huge share of the construction industry consists of infrastructure construction and maintenance. All infrastructure activities of this nature is competitively tendered. This provides the basis for the recommendation given in the present study for – first – how to measure productivity, or equivalently cost efficiency, and – second – to provide scope for analyzing any (positive, or more probably negative) performance trend. To be specific, the idea is to use the tendered contracts or possibly the documented outcome of each contract, or even both, to develop our understanding of the development of productivity. Within the scope of this proposal, focus is on Design-Bid-Build (DBB) contracts (utförandeentreprenader). One particular aspect of DBB contracts is that a construction assignment is based on a detailed Bill of Quantities (BoQ). This document describes in great detail precisely which activities an entrepreneur is supposed to implement and also the quantity of each. Having implemented the BoQ results in a piece of infrastructure without the contract necessarily has described the nature of the road or railway to be built. The recommended method for measuring productivity development is to use Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). This approach has been developed over a long period of time and applied in a number of different sectors of the economy. It has, however, never been tested on infrastructure investment projects. The idea is to test SFA in full scale on a number of similar road investment projects and to use the BoQ’s and associated bid prices for measuring performance both on a cross section sample of projects and subsequently also over time.

  • 302.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    En reformerad tidtabelläggning: Bilaga till Järnvägsutredningen (SOU 2003:104)2003Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 303. Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Fördelning av bankapacitet: Bilaga 13 till Ökad konkurrens på järnvägen (SOU 1993:13)1993Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 304. Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Infrastrukturplanering: en process i behov av institutionella reformer2002In: Skattemiljarder i trafikpolitiken: till vilken nytta? / [ed] Swedenborg, Birgitta, SNS förlag, 2002Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 305.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    University of Stockholm.
    Investment Decisions in a Public Bureaucracy: A Case Study of Swedish Road Planning Practices1991In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 25, no 2, p. 163-175Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 306.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Järnvägskonkurrens: på riktigt eller bara på låtsas?1994In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 22, no 1, p. 21-30Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 307.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Kollektivtrafik utan styrning2011Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 308. Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Kost­nader och produktivitet inom järnvägssek­torn: Kapitel 4 i Översyn av rörelse- och tillsynsregler för kollektiva försäkringar. Betänkande av Kollektivförsäkringsutredningen (SOU 1998:7)1998Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 309. Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Kostnadsansvar och avgiftssystem1985Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 310.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Nya vägar för infrastruktur2009Book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 311.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Stockholms Universitet.
    Nya vägar för vägfinansiering1987In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 15, no 5, p. 389-396Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 312.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Ownership of real estate and terminals in a railway industry with open entry2011Other (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Operators that wish to compete for passengers and freight consignments on railway market with free entry requires access to terminals and to maintenance facilities at competitive prices. The present paper addresses the appropriate way to provide these complementary services within the framework of a vertically separated railway. Three policy recommendations emerge: To sell terminal facilities, including commercial space, to the operator(s) at each passenger terminal; to sell maintenance workshops and also to sell redundant land on the open market. This policy of asset divestiture should be accompanied by a well-designed institutional framework. One part of this is to construct rules for terminal ownership in a way which facilitates entry and exit in the market for passenger services; another to keep a regulatory eye on the possibility for entrants to get access to land and/or workshops and to compete on the market for maintenance service; and a third for the Infrastructure Manager to be responsible to set aside corridors which may in the future be necessary for infrastructure expansion.

  • 313.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Banverket.
    Prissättning av banutnyttjande: en modell för konkurrens på spåret1990In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, no 6, p. 564-575Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 314.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Stockholms Universitet.
    Private Funding of Public Investments: A Case of a Volunta­rily Funded Public Road1990In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 24, no 2, p. 157-170Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 315. Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Produktions-, kostnads- och produktivitetsutveckling inom vägsektorn: rapport till Expertgruppen för Studier i Offentlig Ekonomi1985Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 316.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Projekteringsupphandling i nya former: förstudie2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper describes current practices to tender the projection of infrastructure construction projects and the problems which emanate from these routines. Three approaches to handle these problems are suggested. One method is to increase the use of fixed price, rather than the present use of unit price contracts. A second means would be to further develop the techniques for remunerating bidder competence when submissions are evaluated, in the first place by establishing efficient means for combining price and quality in the assessment. A third approach is to select the winning bid for projection base not only on the price quoted for the projection assignment per se, but also to account for the bidders' ex ante estimate of the subsequent construction cost. The winning bidder would then be remunerated with a share of further cost savings but also pay for part of the costs which exceed the ex ante expectation. This provides incentives to develop implementation methods that would save on construction costs at large.

    The principal would therefore switch from buying the consultants time over to tendering the final outcome of a construction project where the consultancy is instrumental in finding innovative implementation techniques. The report is a pre-study and should be seen to suggest approaches which must be further developed and tested before full-scale implementation. The work is undertaken against a background of Sweden's construction industry lagging behind other parts of the economy in terms of productivity and costs.

  • 317.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Restructuring Sweden’s Railways: The Unintentional Deregulation2002In: Swedish Economic Policy Review, ISSN 1400-1829, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 229-254Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In 1988, Sweden made a vertical cut in its nationalised railway monopoly; since then, infrastructure is handled by a public-sector agency while trains were initially run by a government-owned monopolist. This paper seeks to describe this reorganisation, the subsequent process towards free entry and competition in parts of the sector and the consequences of these changes. It is argued that the policies have not focussed on (ticket) prices and competition issues and have rather been directed towards the sector’s inability to recover costs, which seems to be a Europe-wide phenomenon. Some recommendations for further changes of the industry are suggested.

  • 318.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Stockholms Universitet.
    Second Best Problems in Railroad Infrastructure Pricing and Investment1992In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 26, no 3, p. 245-259Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 1988 the Swedish nationalised railway company was separated into the State Railways, in charge of running rail transport, and the National Rail Administration, responsible for investment in and maintenance of rail infrastructure. The separation made it obvious that the long discussion of optimal road pricing schemes is also relevant for rail traffic. This paper analyses optimal pricing of rail infrastructure use, and optimality conditions for rail and road investment. It is demonstrated that under most circumstances rail charges should be below marginal costs and that investments in both modes should be reduced

  • 319.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Sektortenkning eller helhetstenkning: Hvordan bör transportsektoren organiseres2015In: Ressursbruk i transportsektoren: noen mulige forbedringen / [ed] Jamed Odeck og Morten Welde, Trondheim: Ex ante akademisk forlag , 2015, p. 216-234Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [sv]

    År 2010 lades Vägverket och Banverket ner och i stället tillskapades Trafikverket. Den nya myndigheten har två huvuduppgifter; den ena är att ta fram ett underlag för de beslut regering och riksdag fattar om anslag och prioriteringar av medel för investeringar, drift och underhåll av landets infrastruktur; den andra att omvandla fattade beslut om anslagstilldelning till faktisk handling genom att upphandla de projekt och verksamheter som ska genomföras. Syftet med denna essä är att diskutera om övergången från två separata till en enda myndighet förbättrat effektiviteten i resursanvändningen. Det visar sig svårt att identifiera några sådana vinster. Genomgången pekar emellertid på att den sammanslagna verksamheten kan innebära förbättringar idet dagliga arbetet med att bygga och underhålla infrastruktur. Den övergång från egen regi till upphandling i konkurrens som skedde innan den nya myndighetens tillkomst skapade i sig effektivitetsvinster. En samordning av upphandlingar av underhåll och investeringar i vägar och järnvägar i en enda myndighet ger dessutom en öppning för att bättre följa upp den verksamhet som genomförs för att säkerställa kostnadseffektivitet. Uppföljningar av verksamhet i svensk offentlig sektor har en generellt låg prioritet, något som utgör en broms för möjligheten att utveckla verksamheten och att understödja innovationer.

  • 320.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Swedish Railways Case Study1995In: Best Methods of Railway Restructuring and Privatisation / [ed] R. Kopicki & L. Thompson, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank , 1995, 1, p. 169-204Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 321.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Systemfel i transportsektorn2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report comprises two separate but related reports. The first was commissioned by the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council and identifies three systematic failures with respect to infrastructure decisions. The first is that the price charged for using roads and railways is too low. The second failure concerns the large number of investments which are undertaken in spite of not delivering a social net value. And a third problem is that there is no tradition and indeed no possibilities to compare the outcome of projects and maintenance activities to the ex ante budgets and predictions. The second report, commissioned by the Expert Group for Public Economics under the Finance Ministry, summarizes these observations. It thereafter elaborates on possible explanations to the fact that many investment projects with a negative social rate of return are implemented.

  • 322.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    The value of public private partnerships in infrastructure2009Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    This paper makes three claims. First, in contrast to Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) in many other industries, infrastructure contracts can be conditioned on the delivery of roads and railways of appropriate user quality. This eliminates one of the concerns in the literature of the welfare properties of PPPs. Second, the bundling of investment and maintenance into one single rather than several separate contracts may provide a way to bypass rigidities and contract incompleteness in PPP contracts. Third, having a private concessionaire organising the funding of a PPP project’s investment costs may increase financing costs. This is, however, balanced by the fact that it also enhances the agent’s commitment in long-term incomplete contracts. Taken together, these conclusions point to the possibility of using PPP as an instrument for improving the construction industry’s dismal productivity performance.

  • 323.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Towards a Welfare Enhancing Process to Manage Railway Infrastructure Access2002In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 36, no 5, p. 419-436Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The European Commission has suggested that the use of scarce railway track capacity should be charged for on a marginal cost basis and that a welfare enhancing procedure to allocate capacity between competing operators is to be implemented. The present paper presents a practicable way to deal with these challenges. Two issues are at the analytical core of the problem.

    First, in order to prioritise, accurate information is required about the operators' willingness-to-pay for track access; to this end, an auctioning procedure has been developed. Secondly, an approach to handle the technically complex optimisatton problem is needed so that 'reasonably' optimal allocations, given the 'accurate' information, can be established; dual optimisation is suggested as the remedy. Recent experiences from the US auctioning of radio-wave frequencies are cited as supporting evidence for the rationale of the approach.

  • 324.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Transport Infrastructure Investment: Options for Efficiency2008Report (Other academic)
  • 325.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    What type of management and pricing?1997In: Which Changes for Transport in the next Century?: introductory reports and summary of discussions, Paris: OECD Publishing, 1997, p. 405-Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 326.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Implementing Optimal Supply of Public Transport: The Choice between Tendering and Targeted Subsidies2016In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 50, no 1, p. 21-38Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper compares two approaches for providing public transport: competitive tendering and targeted subsidies. The subsidy option means that commercial operators charge a fare, and are paid by the public sector principal both per passenger and per bus in service. This is the case since quality (the number of buses) would otherwise be sub-optimal. Under full information, the tendering and targeted subsidies would establish the same welfare-maximising outcome, while subsidies typically are more expensive for taxpayers. The case for targeted subsidies is stronger under an asymmetric information framework.

  • 327.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Optimal supply of public transport: subsidising production or consumption or both?2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper compares two approaches for providing public transport: competitive tendering and vouchers. The functioning of tendering is well known. The voucher alternative means that commercial operators charge passengers a fare and are also paid by the public sector principal for each. The paper establishes that it is also necessary to subsidize quality, here referring to the number of busses. Under full information, the two approaches would result in the same welfare maximizing outcome. Vouchers may be more expensive for taxpayers. The case for vouchers is shown to be stronger under an asymmetric information framework.

  • 328.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Andersson, Mats
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Knapphet på järnväg: sammanställning av två promemorior2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The use of market mechanisms for timetabling of trains is discussed in three different time perspectives in the report. Motives for charging for booking and de-registering trains in the upcoming time table is discussed, too. The point of departure is that a substantial number of trains in a timetable are never operated.

    Three different time perspectives on the basic timetabling problem are discussed. The short term approach would be to use a bidding mechanism for solving remaining conflicts. It is suggested that a one shot, sealed bid second price procedure is developed. This means that bids from the two or more bidders for each conflict are submitted once and for all and that the highest bidder pays a price which equals the second highest bid. There are strong reasons to believe that this would work to guarantee a truth-revealing process resulting in an efficient allocation.

    It is further recommended that posted prices for use of bottlenecks is developed in the medium term. In the long run, it is necessary to develop an optimization algorithm which is capable to solve the computationally challenging problem of establish a value maximizing solution to the allocation of competing demands for track access. As a complement, a mechanism for efficient bidding needs to be developed in order to provide incentives for operators to participate in the process with truth revealing bids.

    The point of departure for the second document is that a substantial number of (freight) trains in a timetable are never operated. The reason may be that the service provider’s ex ante estimates of demand may turn out to be wrong, i.e. that actual demand is lower than the initial estimate. There is a simultaneous pressure for new slots which emerges after that a time table has been established. The document makes suggestions for a system of reservation charges and charges for cancelling trains on short notice.

  • 329.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Arnek, Magnus
    Abrantes, Pedro
    ITS.
    Grahn-Voorneveld, Sofia
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Nash, Chris
    ITS.
    Toner, Jeremy
    ITS.
    Implications of cost recovery2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Under some circumstances, the marginal cost approach to infrastructure pricing leads to problems with cost recovery; a pricing policy which ensures that existing assets are efficiently used may not deliver revenue to pay for the costs for maintenance of existing, nor indeed for construction of new infrastructure. For different reasons governments may find this inappropriate and rather want to complement the marginal-cost-pricing principle with a requirement for a sector of the economy to break even. Efficiency would then be jeopardised. The idea behind work package 2 is to establish the micro-aspects of requirements to recover costs over and above marginal costs. This is done for all modes of transport. More precisely, the objective of this report is to establish some core features of how each mode of transport is organised, to describe the implications of cost recovery requirements for each mode and to analyse different mechanisms which would ascertain that each mode covers a larger share of its own costs.

  • 330.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Arvidsson, Sara
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro Universitet.
    Voluntary Internalization of Speeding Externalities2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 6, p. 926-937Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    High speed is an important determinant of accidents for speeders as well as for other motorists. This paper develops a framework for analyzing instruments that encourage drivers to internalize the full consequences of their behavior with respect to choice of speed using Pay-As-You-Speed (PAYS) insurance, possibly as an extension of Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) insurance. We demonstrate how the combination of a Pigovian taxation scheme and PAYS can be designed in a setting involving two principals (the state and an insurance company) that affect the incentives of commuters to choose between driving and other modes of transport and for those that use the car mode to drive carefully. While the government is assumed to maximize overall social efficiency and therefore wants to implement marginal cost pricing, insurance companies do actuarial pricing, i.e. average cost pricing within risk classes that are homogeneous to the degree that the insurers have information about actual behavior. PAYS insurance improves the insurance industry's possibility to differentiate premiums according to behavior and therefore to target risk classes in a better way than today. Moreover, since our framework is designed to accomplish differentiation by self-selection, compulsory regulation is not necessary, although there may be reason for the government to facilitate the implementation of the new technology.

  • 331.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Bergman, Mats
    Södertörns Högskola.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm. KTH.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Vart tar pengarna vägen?: Om behovet av bättre uppföljning för ökad effektivitet i offentlig sektor2012In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, no 1, p. 44-56Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Det är inte möjligt att följa kostnaderna för infrastrukturinvesteringar från regeringens investeringsplan och riksdagens budgetbeslut till kostnaden vid upphandlingstillfället och till slutlig resursförbrukning. I uppsatsen diskuteras tänkbara förklaringar. Oavsett anledning är bristen på uppföljning problematisk eftersom både den interna styrningen och regeringskansliets styrning av myndigheten försvåras. Det mesta talar för att det till mycket begränsade kostnader går att utforma system som gör det möjligt att dra lärdomar av både goda och mindre goda erfarenheter och därmed förbättra kostnadseffektiviteten i offentlig sektor.

  • 332.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Regress - en god idé i järnvägssektorn?2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI has been commissioned to analyze the preconditions for, and possible consequences of introducing the possibility of regress in the railway industry. Regress refers to the possibility of anyone that is stricken by financial consequences of train delays caused by someone else, to reclaim these costs. Introducing a system of this nature would not increase costs to the industry but would transfer costs to the culpable party. To the extent that operators and the infrastructure holder adjusts the way in which activities are implemented, the risk for delays may shrink which in the long run may reduce prices and tariffs. A substantial part of the report is spent on the systems currently in place for registering delays and their consequences. It is demonstrated that the infrastructure holder runs a sophisticated system of this nature. The shortcomings of this system, which includes quality problems with registering the cause of delays and in particular shortcomings with respect to the possibility to register trains that are cancelled an/or rerouted, will most probably have to be rectified irrespective of the presence of a system with regress. The data collection system would then be appropriate also for handling regress. Most delays are small, resulting in limited consequences only for affected parties. The consequences of few major disturbances may however, be substantial, but it has not been feasible to make cost estimates of these costs.

  • 333.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Redovisning av regeringsuppdrag kring trafikens samhällsekonomiska kostnader: SAMKOST 32018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Starting in 2013, VTI has been tasked with three government missions to improve knowledge about the traffic's socioeconomic costs. SAMKOST 3 has covered all modes of transport, but focus has been on maritime transport and aviation. The main purpose of the analysis is to improve the knowledge about the external costs of the traffic i.e. costs of accidents, congestion, noise, air pollution and climate impact. This final report summarizes the results of the sub-reports that have been prepared to meet the purpose. An important part of the analysis has been an in-depth discussion of the role of Sweden’s carbon dioxide tax on fuels to limit emissions.

  • 334.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    SAMKOST 2: redovisning av regeringsuppdrag kring trafikens samhällsekonomiska kostnader2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In December 2012, the government commissioned VTI to update the social marginal costs for using infrastructure for all modes of transport based on state-of-the-art knowledge in the research community. A final report was submitted in December 2013 and shortly after, the government extended VTIs commission. The present report summarizes the results of the extended mission. In the same way as in SAMKOST 1, the taxation of fuel is substantially higher than the costs generated by passenger cars that use the road network. It is also concluded that heavy vehicles are charged less than the costs inflicted by using roads.

    Users of railway infrastructure are charged track user charges which are below marginal costs for using tracks.

    Estimates of the marginal costs emanating from merchant shipping include piloting, icebreaking and accident risks, all emanating from the activities of the Swedish Maritime Administration. A new study of emissions from shipping is part of the background work within SAMKOST 2. Overall, current levels of fees charged by the Swedish Maritime Administration is well below the industry’s costs.

    There are no indications that landings and take-offs at airports have consequences for the need for maintenance and renewal of runways. The marginal costs of aviation are primarily related to emissions and noise. Charges for national flights may be fairly close to marginal costs while costs for European and in particular inter-continental flights are substantially higher than the different types of charges levied. It is, however, important to emphasize that conclusions regarding shipping and in particular aviation are less certain than when the comparison concerns road and railway charges relative to marginal costs.

  • 335.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Karlström, Urban
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    The Arlanda Airport Railway Link: Lessons Learned from a Swedish Construction project. 2008In: Review of Network Economics, ISSN 1446-9022, E-ISSN 1446-9022, Vol. 7, no 1, p. 77-94Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Stockholm - Arlanda airport rail link is a public-private partnership opened for traffic in 1999. This paper addresses costs and benefits of giving a private company control over one section of the otherwise public railway network. The project has reduced the pressure on the public sector's budget and reduced the need to raise efficiency distorting tax revenue. The number of passengers has been below expectations. Track capacity may, however, be sufficient to negotiate an increase the supply of rail services by way of extending existing commuter trains, in that way attracting more passengers.

  • 336.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Högskolan i Dalarna.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Högskolan i Dalarna.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Högskolan i Dalarna.
    Vad 1998 års trafikpolitik bör innehålla1997In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, no 6, p. 343-354Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 337.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Johansson, Anna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    SAMKOST: redovisning av regeringsuppdrag kring trafikens samhällsekonomiska kostnader2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In December 2012, the Swedish government commissioned VTI to update the social marginal costs for using infrastructure for all modes of transport based on state-of-the-art knowledge in the research community. The task has been implemented by defining projects addressing all externalities of relevance for the assessment, i.e. infrastructure wear and tear, accident risks, emissions from the use of fossil fuel, noise as well as shortage of capacity. The overall assessment of marginal costs of road use is not far from the level in previous domestic studies. Behind this average, a new approach to estimate the costs to the infrastructure holder of heavy and light vehicles using roads, results in cost estimates that are higher than before. Other cost components, in particular the social costs for road accidents has however been reduced. Also the estimates of the costs originating from emissions and noise are lower than before. The marginal costs of railway services are now higher than before, in particular for freight trains. The single most important change also in the railway sector is the increase in costs for infrastructure wear and tear. These results represent national averages for roads and railways. A graphical representation of costs is also offered in order to address the degree of cost-level differences across the networks. It is obvious that costs for noise and emissions are higher the closer people live to traffic using the network. Clear differences with respect to maintenance costs are also observed, but overall this aspect of the results is not yet ready for providing the basis for a comprehensive policy discussion.

  • 338.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Anna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Österström, Johannes
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Arlandabanan: konsekvenser av förändrade strategier2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In year 2000, railway operations started between Arlanda airport and downtown Stockholm. The service is part of a PPP contract that includes construction and maintenance as well as service provision for a period of 45 years after the initiation of traffic. Patronage on the line is below expectations at the time of contract closure in 1993. There is therefore an ongoing discussion of whether it would be appropriate for the government to renegotiate the contract to change the preconditions for the service. Commissioned by Riksrevisionen, the Swedish National Audit Office, this memo addresses two aspects of a possible change of strategy:

     Which would the consequences be of a change of pricing strategy from the current targeting of the high end of the market? A 30 percent price reduction is considered.

     Is there enough track capacity to increase the number of departures during peak hours?

  • 339.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Oskar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Ridderstedt, Ivan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Wikström, Daniel
    Trafikverket.
    Kostnadsanalyser av upphandlade kontrakt: två studier av investerings- och reinvesteringsprojekt2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Transport Agency’s mission includes continuously improving the productivity of operations. The main purpose of the report is to lay the groundwork for following up and further developing the activities carried out. For this purpose, the results of two studies are reported. The one compares costs in contract with invoiced final cost while the other analyses the cost of contracted maintenance costs.

    Finally, several minimum requirements are identified that must be placed on the information required to carry out systematic follow-up.

  • 340.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Jonsson, Lina
    KTH.
    Lessons from the tendering of railway services in Sweden: Are some contracts better than others?2011In: International Journal of Transport Economics, ISSN 0303-5247, E-ISSN 1724-2185, Vol. 38, no 1, p. 71-90Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Provision of non-commercial railway services in Sweden is the responsibility of regional Public Transport Authorities. In spite of substantial real increases in fares, patronage of subsidised railway services has increased by 4.6 percent per year over the last 20 years. To provide an understanding of this development the paper addresses the way in which the responsibility for public transport is organised. One feature of the organisation is that the design of tendering processes and contracting formats are not streamlined but differ across PTAs. Data about the particular contracts in use are however patchy and partly incomparable, making it difficult to establish whether one or the other contract design contributes better to sector performance. It is therefore not feasible to base an understanding of how traffic growth has been affected by sector internal performance on a rigorous analysis. It is argued that voluntary or forced implementation of a system for performance assessment is necessary in order to reduce waste.

  • 341.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    The allocation of transport infrastructure in Swedish municipalities: Welfare maximization, political economy or both?2016In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130, Vol. 7, p. 53-64Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper compares models for explaining the volume of transport investments in Swedish municipalities: 1 by the planned projects’ welfare consequences, 2. in terms of the district demand (the common pool) model, namely a municipality's share of the cost towards the investment and 3. electoral concerns and/or lobbying, as described by a swing voter model.

    We find that the welfare only hypothesis has little explanatory power. The district demand model explains the investment volume in rail projects, while the swing voter model explains road investment better. Lobbying does not seem to have any impact on the investment volume.

    Finally, we find that including a measure of the welfare in the political economy models greatly enhances the models’ explanatory power. Our main conclusion is that future analyses of what drives the allocation of resources for transport infrastructure should consider aspects related to both political economy, welfare, and the transport mode.

  • 342.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Analysis of Road Sector Organisation Issues in an Asymmetric Information Framework1995In: World Transport Research: Proceedings of the 7th World Conference on Transport Research, Vol. 3, / [ed] David A. Hensher, Jenny King & Tae Oum, Elsevier, 1995Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 343.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Fungerar godstransportmarknaden effektivt?: ekonomisk analys av energieffektivisering av godstransporter2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A large share of Sweden’s aggregate use of energy is used in the transport sector, a third of which is used for freight transport purposes. Excluding the recent downturn in the business cycle, traffic and therefore also the use of energy, increases year by year. Against this background the present report provides a qualitative discussion of three aspects of the market for freight transport which may indicate that this development is not compatible with an efficient use of resources. A first possible reason for the increase in traffic, and thereby the increasing use of energy and other resources, can be related to the external effects of heavy traffic. It is well known that heavy vehicles wear the roads down, that they generate accident risks noise and congestion and also that the use of fossil fuel results in emissions. There are no guarantees that the transport industry automatically takes these effects into account in their decision making. The use of economic instruments is one possibility for internalising these effects. The review however demonstrates that current charges on users of railway infrastructure as well as taxes on fuel are insufficient for representing these costs. Even with conservative assumption the fuel tax should be doubled while track user charges on freight should increase with even more. The report also comprises a discussion about whether other (potential) market failures may affect the growth of transport volumes. To the extent that a (transport) corporation is able to control the price on some part of the market, there may be reason to break up this (local) monopoly. But even if a monopoly would not be eliminated, there are few indications that a welfare enhancing policy – should it be implemented – would not reduce the use of energy. The risk is rather that an unrestricted monopoly would lead to too small transport volumes. The industry is characterised by specific contracts between buyers and sellers of transport services.

  • 344.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Erfarenheter av privat finansiering av offentlig infrastruktur2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A government committee has asked VTI to give an account of domestic and international experiences of private funding of public infrastructure investment under the Public Private Partnership (PPP) format. This report is based on a literature review focusing the development of the most recent 10-year period. The report confirms and strengthens previous conclusions on the subject: PPP projects are typically opened for traffic on time and at lower cost overruns than projects implemented under traditional types of contracts. There are, however, no comprehensive empirical ex post reviews identifying pros and cons of the PPP approach to infrastructure construction and maintenance.

  • 345.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Mapping railways maintenance contracts: the case of Netherlands, Finland and UK2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In 1988, Sweden was the first country in Europe to separate the ownership of railway infrastructure from traffic operations. Starting in 2002, maintenance has gradually been contracted out. Sweden, Finland and Holland – and previously England – have been in the European forefront regarding the use of competitive tendering of railway maintenance. The description of the situation in the countries indicate important similarities. All clients are trying to attract more contractors to place bids. At the same time, and very outspoken in Finland, the profitability on the market for rail maintenance is not high, making it different to attract new companies to enter the market. Another common aspect concerns the allocation of risk between the parties, indicating different emphasis on fixed price and unit price contracts. A related dimension is the tradeoff between tendering input or output.

  • 346.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Före och efter: uppföljning av en järnvägsinvestering i Oslo2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI has been commissioned to make an ex post evaluation of a new double track between Asker and Sandvika to the southwest of Oslo. This is one out of three parcels in a package of railway investments in this area. The decision to implement the project was taken by the Norwegian parliament, Stortinget, in 2001 and the 9,5 km long section, most of which comprises tunnels, was opened for traffic in 2005. The objective of the investment package was to increase capacity and to reduce travel time with the purpose of attracting new passengers, thereby increasing the market share of public transport. A complementary objective was to improve the local environment by attracting road users to change transport mode. By definition, the project has met the capacity enhancement target. It is also obvious that this has been achieved by a cost overrun of about five percent. This seems to be close to target when comparing with experiences of other projects. The line was also opened for traffic on time. The major challenge for the ex post assessment has been to aquire information about patronage, both before the project initiation and after the operations have started. The report concludes that the type of information necessary to perform ex ante assessments of the welfare properties of a project is of the same nature as required for any follow up. This should be used as a point of departure for formulating a strategy for future information collection. It is thus reason to consider the sequence of initial information gathering, the subsequent production of an estimate of the social welfare of a project, the political decision to build, the construction phase and a subsequent follow up as parts of a continuous process of decision making and learning in order to increase the probability for that future decisions are based on the best possible material.

  • 347.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Salomonsson, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Kostnadsöverskridande i Trafikverkets entreprenadkontrakt2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Government has instructed the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) to promote productivity in the construction industry. VTI assists Trafikverket in this work. In this report, the differences that exist between the price set in the contract between Trafikverket and the construction company that has been commissioned to implement an activity and the final cost of the assignment are reported. 776 contracts relating to contracts in both the road and rail sectors and that comprises both investments and maintenance measures and which cost more than SEK 10 million are included in the material.

    Statistical tests show, among other things, that the risk of cost overruns is very large, and slightly higher for railway contract (94 per cent probability) than for road contracts (86 per cent). The cost overrun for road contracts (1,20) is significantly lower than for rail contracts (1,32).

  • 348.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Marginalkostnader för reinvesteringar i järnvägsanläggningar: en delrapport inom SAMKOST 32018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Reinvesteringar i järnvägsanläggningar påverkas av trafik och utgör därför en komponent i marginalkostnaden för nyttjandet av infrastrukturen. Tidigare studier har traditionellt fokuserat på reinvesteringskostnader i banöverbyggnad. I denna studie skattas separata marginalkostnader för reinvesteringar i Bana (banöverbyggnad, banunderbyggnad, bangårdar), El, Signal, Tele och Övriga anläggningar. Trots att slitage av exempelvis signal- och teleanläggningar inte torde variera med trafik, finner vi statistiskt signifikanta samband mellan trafik och reinvesteringar i samtliga anläggningar. En förklaring är att trafikökningen innebär en ökad störningskostnad, även i frånvaron av ett trafikberoende slitage, och därmed att reinvesteringen tidigareläggs. Analysen visar även att de skattade effekterna främst kommer från jämförelser mellan bandelar, vilket innebär en risk att de (delvis) är korrelationer och inte kausala samband mellan trafik och reinvesteringar. När marginalkostnaderna för anläggningsgrupperna läggs samman hamnar de på 0,0141 kr per bruttotonkilometer och 4,4520 kr per tågkilometer.

  • 349.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Liss, Viktoria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Regelförändringar i transportsektorn – effekter av omregleringar inom inrikesflyg, taxi, kommersiell tågtrafik och bilprovning2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Konkurrensverket (the Swedish Competition Authority) has commissioned the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) to provide an overview of the consequences of four regulatory reforms in the transport sector during the past 20 years. In brief, the following core observations are made. The market for domestic flights was opened for entry in 1991. After a few years with prices going both up and down, the last 10 years or so have seen prices increase much faster than the consumer price index. After a peak in 1990, patronage first stalled and has subsequently decreased. Much of this can be explained by a number of external changes, i.e. it does not seem to be directly related to the way in which the market is organised. The taxi market was deregulated in 1990. Prices for private users have subsequently increased at twice the speed of consumer prices; negotiated prices for tendered services providing disabled persons etc. with taxi services has not increased at the same pace. After the reform, the number of vehicles has increased by 22 per cent. As a result, waiting times have been reduced. The market for domestic railway services was opened for entry in late 2011. The degree of entry has since been small, and it is too early to see any consequences for ridership and prices of the reform. The annual, compulsory vehicle control was previously provided by a national monopolist. This market was opened for entry in 2010. While accessibility for consumers has improved slightly since some additional inspection sites have been established, it is too early to see any major consequences in terms of entry. The government is, however, partitioning the incumbent and gradually selling it on commercial terms.

  • 350.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Höghastighetsjärnvägar - ett klimatpolitiskt stickspår2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Through all shades of political opinion there seems to be a perception that large-scale investments in high-speed railways is a climate policy necessity. Against this background this report studies whether "Götalandsbanan" - a high-speed railway between Stockholm and Göteborg via Skavsta, Jönköping and Landvetter - is a cost-effective way of reducing emissions of carbon dioxide. Our work is based on a report that the Swedish National Rail Administration commissioned from the WSP consultancy. Our examination of the supporting material that has been prepared leads to three main conclusions: - Investment in Götalandsbanan in the form studied is not socially cost-effective. This does not rule out that implementing other and less costly project forms could be justified. - Rail investments are not cost-effective climate policy instruments. The reason is that despite great investment costs it is only possible to affect a very small part of carbon dioxide emissions from the transport market. One way of illustrating this conclusion is that the benefit must be SEK 8 per kilo carbon dioxide that the project would contribute to eliminating, for the project's cost-effectiveness to be changed from minus to plus. This corresponds to a petrol price of more than SEK 30. - The economic analysis of Götalandsbanan that has been presented by the Swedish National Rail Administration is of a high standard in many respects. Nonetheless, some shortcomings remain. We have pointed out deficiencies in statistical reporting of rail transport, calculations of initial capital expenditure and calculations of the costs of accidents, environmental impact and wear as well as corresponding taxes. It is not a good state of affairs to approve investments in the region of SEK 100 billion on the basis of analyses that are unclear on these points. Consequently, results reporting must be developed to make the decision-making data more transparent. This applies to both analyses of Götalandsbanan and infrastructure projects in general.

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