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  • 201.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Geographical aspects in the political economics of transport infrastructure funding in Sweden2013Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 202.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Kvotplikt för biodrivmedel: högsta vinsten till specialintressen?2014In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 2Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    I mars 2013 lade regeringen fram ett förslag till ett nytt system för att öka användningen av biodrivmedel. Man föreslår en kvot för bensin och två kvoter för dieselbränslen, utan någon koppling mellan kvoterna. Förslaget omfattar inte alla biodrivmedel. Denna artikel visar att regeringens förslag varken är kostnadseffektivt, teknikneutralt eller ekologiskt hållbart och diskuterar vem som är vinnare och förlorare av förslaget.  I artikeln skisseras även ett alternativt kostnadseffektivt system som bland annat möjliggör handel i biodrivmedelscertifikat.

  • 203.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Nya regler för biodrivmedel gynnar mest producenter2014In: Dagens nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Felriktad politik. Regeringen inför en kvotplikt för att öka konsumtionen av biodrivmedel. Men systemet motverkar regeringens egna uppsatta mål. Dessutom kommer särskilda intressegrupper att gynnas medan skattebetalarna och vanliga bilister blir de stora förlorarna, skriver forskaren Johanna Jussila Hammes.

  • 204.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Path dependence: biofuels policy under uncertainty about greenhouse gas emissions2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We study the effect of uncertainty about the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the production of biofuels on trade policy, in the presence of lobby groups and two policy instruments, trade policy and biofuels mandates. We show that in the presence of biofuels mandates it would be optimal from a societal point of view to lower the trade tariff on biofuels when the emissions from their production are shown to be 'high' as compared to when they are believed to be 'low'. If the government is susceptible to lobbying, the tariff may be raised instead. We further show that at subsequent time periods, the biofuels sector's marginal lobbying effort will not fall compared to previous periods, and that consequently, its political contribution also does not fall. Finally we show how policy may be path dependent, i.e., that earlier tariff rates in part determine future tariff rates if the government is susceptible to lobbying and given that the domestic price of biofuels does not fall. The model can, e.g., shed light on why the EU does not lower the tariffs on Brazilian ethanol in the face of new information.

    Older version : http://swopec.hhs.se/vtiwps/abs/vtiwps2011_001.htm

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  • 205.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Political economics or Keynesian demand-side policies: What determines transport infrastructure investment in Swedish municipalities?2015In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 51, p. 49-60Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines investment in transport infrastructure in Swedish municipalities according to the three National Transport Infrastructure Plans of 2004, 2010 and 2014. The plans cover 12 years each. The test of a swing voter model, combined with variables relevant to the Keynesian model of demand side policies, supports the proposition that there is less investment in municipalities with highly partisan electorates. The model seems to work better for road than for rail investments. Municipalities with a high density of voters at the ideological cut-point (middle of the ideological distribution) got more investment in the 2010 plan but not in the other plans. The impact of the elasticity of output on public service provision raised investment in road projects in sub-plan period 1 compared to later sub-plan periods. The tax elasticity of output may influence the volume of investment downward. The Plan for 2010–2021 seems to be the most politically determined of the plans considered here.

  • 206.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Steering cities towards a sustainable transport system in Norway and Sweden2020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper describes so-called city growth agreements and city environmental agreements in Norway and Sweden, respectively. We do case studies of two regions in Norway and two cities in Sweden. While the general aim of the agreements is similar in the two countries, namely for the central government to influence municipal infrastructure building in a more environmentally sustainable direction, the agreements differ in many respects. While the Norwegian agreements consist of several projects concerning the construction of roads and railroads, and infrastructure for public transport, pedestrians, and cycling, the Swedish agreements only concern one (type of) project at a time. Moreover, Norway emphasizes city planning more; even though the building of new housing is important also in Sweden, location and densification are less so. The Swedish projects are municipality driven, while the Norwegian system is based on reciprocal negotiations between the municipalities, the county, and the state. The Norwegian model fits better into a theoretical fiscal federalism-based framework than the Swedish one, with the state internalizing spatial spillovers arising from infrastructure projects. In Sweden, the agreements are better to be seen as means for institutionalized lobbying by municipalities.

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  • 207.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Styrmedelsinventering: delstudie inom SAMKOST2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report takes stock and describes policy instruments that affect the extent of the various externalities arising from transport; noise, impact on infrastructure (both planning new infrastructure and consumption phase), climate, air pollution, traffic safety, congestion and impact on water. The analysis of policy instruments covers all four transport modes: road, rail, maritime and air transport. The description begins with a review of related international agreements and EU regulations. It then discusses domestic policy measures. The point of departure in this discussion is whether a policy instrument affects the marginal cost of an activity or not.

    It is difficult to link a specific policy instruments to specific external effects, even though there is such a link in the instrument's design. The reason for this is that all policy instruments that affect the volume of traffic also by definition  influence all the externalities that arise. The report is nevertheless arranged so that every policy instrument is coupled to the external effect that it primarily aims at.

    The report also contains an overview of policy instruments in five neighboring countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway, the UK and Germany. The international overview does not include an examination of the links between external effects and policy instruments but lists and describes the policy instruments on the basis of the transport mode they affect.

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  • 208.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    The political economy of infrastructure planning in Sweden2013In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 47, no 3, p. 437-452Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study factors affecting the choice of projects to be included in the National Transport Infrastructure Plan for 2010-2021 in Sweden, controlling for the CBA results. The centre-right government tended to favour those counties that voted for it, and favour rail investments over road. We find no discrimination against the large cities of Gothenburg, Malmö and Stockholm. Finally, lobbying also matters; projects with co-financing from the local municipality(ies) have a greater probability of being included in the Plan. Industry lobbying has, at best, a borderline significant effect, and affects the probability of a project being included in the Plan positively.

  • 209.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Utformning av kvotpliktsystem för biodrivmedel2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The EU's renewables directive requires that the consumption of biofuels must increase. In a VTI report Johanna Jussila Hammes studies the design of a biofuels quota system and its cost effectiveness with the help of an analytic model on three different ways to formulate a quota.

    The quota system will be cost effective if trade in biofuels certificates is allowed. It is also possible to use biogas in order to increase the system's cost effectiveness.

    "Double counting" some biofuels will make it easier to reach the quota and lowers the consumer price of fuels, but will not provide any support for the doubly counted biofuels. Fuel quality requirements can reduce the cost effectiveness of the system. This may be helped if biofuels in high concentrations also can be counted towards the quota.

    De Gorter and Just (2009) show how a biofuels quota in conjunction with a tax rebate to biofuels constitutes a subvention to the consumption of all fuels. For this reason, we recommend that no tax rebate will be given to biofuels included in a quota system.

    Given that the number of firms in the fossil fuel and the biofuels sectors are about the same, and that the quota is not very strict, the quota system will reduce eventual market power. The same result applies to the biofuel certificate market, where trade in the certificates increases welfare even in the presence of market power.

    Johanna Jussila Hammes ends with a short literature overview of the direct and the indirect land use change, and of the effect of biofuels on the price of food.

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  • 210.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Local government co-financing of the central government's transport infrastructure investment2019In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130, Vol. 18, p. 40-49Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study two districts’ voluntary co-financing of a centrally provided public good, e.g., transport infrastructure. Outcomes are compared to a surplus-maximizing level of public good provision. We show that both co-financing and lobbying raise the amount of public good provided. Co-financing and lobbying are substitutes. Co-financing (or co-financing combined with lobbying) raises the provision of the public good to a higher level than lobbying alone. Co-financing can thus reduce rent-seeking. Finally, we show that under uncertainty about district type (high or low benefit), co-financing combined with lobbying can be used to find and retain a separating equilibrium.

  • 211.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    Högskolan Dalarna.
    Congdon Fors, Heather
    Göteborgs universitet.
    The influence of individual characteristics and institutional norms on bureaucrats’ use of CBA in environmental policy: a model and a choice experiment2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Social scientists regularly criticize the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), which has led to much focus being placed on investigating the possible biases related to its results. Recent research shows that CBA is not routinely done prior to environmental, energy, and climate policymaking in Sweden, and in countries where a CBA is made, the results have little influence on political decisions. This paper investigates obstacles to using CBA information with a focus on bureaucrats. We use empirical data from Sweden, where the ministries are small by international standards and hence government agencies have a sizeable influence on policymaking. We construct a theoretical model and then test the theoretical predictions with empirical data collected from five Swedish government agencies. The empirical results lend support both for the assertion that risk aversion concerning the environmental outcome, the bureaucrats’ environmental attitudes, and the cost of taking CBA information into account have a considerable impact on the probability of using information from a CBA. Hence risk averse and bureaucrats with strong environmental preferences are less likely and bureaucrats with low cost of doing a CBA more likely than other bureaucrats to use CBA information. Finally, a binding governmental budget constraint may positively influence a bureaucrat’s choice of undertaking a CBA. A tentative conclusion is therefore that it may be possible to increase the use of CBA by making the budgetary consequences of policies much clearer and demanding due consideration of costs.

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  • 212.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    The allocation of transport infrastructure in Swedish municipalities: welfare maximization, political economy or both?2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The choice of transport infrastructure projects to include in the National Transport Infrastructure Plans in Sweden is often said to be motivated by the weighing of cost against social benefits. Examining the projects that are included in the Plans, it is clear, however, that not all projects have positive net present values, and are therefore more costly to build than the benefits they create. This paper studies alternative models that might explain the choice of projects. Two political economy models, the district demand and the swing voter with lobbying, are tested, and a model that accounts for the spatial distribution of the projects, as well as the possibility that priorities are based on welfare concerns, is estimated. No support is found for the political economy models. What explains investment volume is the existence of CBA results for a project, which may indicate that welfare benefits have an impact, as do the spatial spillovers from a project’s benefits and lobbying, especially by the municipalities concerned.

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  • 213.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    The influence of public transport supply on private car use in 17 mid-sized Swedish cities from 1997 to 20112016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyse the impact of increased public transport supply on private car use using micro data on individuals from 17 mid-sized cities in Sweden. The data is obtained from Swedish administrative registers (tax and odometer), which exists for all Swedish adults and cars, and information of public transport supply, namely bus kilometres supplied.

    In a description of the data we see that that the increase of private Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) per inhabitant stagnate in the sample cities towards the end of the period 1997-2011. Our hypothesis is that changes in the supply of public transport is the main cause for this stagnation. The probability of owning a car and the demand functions for VKT are estimated. The principal finding is that private car use is reduced by increased supply of bus kilometres with an average elasticity ranging from -0.01 to -0.04. This effect is larger in peripheral areas and in larger cities. In small cities the effect is almost nil. We conclude that public transport has an effect on the private VKT of inhabitants but that the impact is relatively small and cannot be the main cause for the stagnating increase of private VKT per inhabitant in the sample cities.

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  • 214.
    Karlsson, Robert
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Underlag till schabloner för DoU-kostnader i EVA och Vägverkets Effektsamband för nybyggnad och förbättring: sammanställning och analys2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A basis is presented for new models for maintenance and operation costs in the Swedish Road Administration’s guidelines (Effektsamband) and the programmes (EVA, Samkalk) for network and object planning. The development of models and the assumptions made are documented and described.

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  • 215.
    Karlsson, Rune
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Trafikanalys.
    Söderbaum, Fredrik
    Trafikanalys.
    Ado, Abboud
    Trafikanalys.
    Larsson-Wijk, Pia
    SWECO.
    Christian Udin, Udin
    SWECO.
    Valideringsverktyg och valideringsdata till godsmodeller2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report deals with questions concerning validation of the Swedish national goods transportation model, Samgods. To some degree, also more general issues of validation are discussed. When developing transportation models it is essential to have independent data available that can be used for comparison, validation and calibration. The quality and availability of such data are obvious issues. It is a big advantage if these data cover many different aspects of the model results and are collected on a regular basis. In the report, a survey of data sources useful for validation purposes is presented. For each source of data, quality and availability is discussed. For statistical data, the method for collecting the data is described in some detail as well as uncertainties and access to the data that may be restricted due to privacy regulations. A special section in the report is devoted to investigating if present day intelligent transport systems (ITS) can provide data for validation purposes. Once the compilation of validation data is completed, many problems remain concerning the validation. In particular, there is a matching problem between the model output data and validation data. The many different table formats and aggregation levels for the data add to the complexity of this problem. A similar, but easier, problem is to compare output data from different versions of Samgods. Within the project a computer program has been developed that can be used for matching such kinds of datasets. The program, as well as a user manual for it, is included in the report.

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  • 216.
    Karlström, Anders
    et al.
    KTH.
    Isacsson, Gunnar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Is sick absence related to commuting travel time?: Swedish Evidence Based on the Generalized Propensity Score Estimator2010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper focuses on the effects of commuting time on sickness insurance utilization by applying a generalized propensity score estimator to a large sample of Swedish employees. We analyse the effect of commuting time both on the probability of using sickness insurance at all and on the probability that an individual on sick leave is on so-called partial sick leave rather than being completely absent from work. Insurance utilization is in both cases defined as being ill for more than 14 days. The results indicate, in general, that individuals do not use sickness insurance because of their commuting time. However, commuting time seems to increase the risk of being on sick leave among females with relatively low annual wage earnings. The results indicate, furthermore, a relatively weak and negative relationship between the probability of being on partial sick leave and commuting time in the group of individuals who have utilized sickness insurance. The latter result applies to both men and women.

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  • 217.
    Kopsch, Fredrik
    KTH.
    A demand model for domestic air travel in Sweden2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this study is to estimate the price elasticity of demand for domestic air travel in Sweden. Using national aggregated data on passenger quantities and fares, price elasticities of demand are estimated with an unbalanced, in terms of stationarity, yet well performing model. The analysis also includes estimates of cross-price elasticities for the main transport substitutes to air travel, rail and road. The robustness of the results is enforced by a primitive division of business and leisure travellers. The results indicate that aggregated demand flr domestic air travel in Sweden is fairly elastic (-0.84) in the short-run and more elastic (-1.13) in the long-run. The robustness test of the model show that leisere travellers, as defined in the data, are more sensitive to price changes than are business travellers. Furthermore, the cross price elasticity between rail and air travel is found to be 0.44.

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  • 218.
    Kopsch, Fredrik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Aviation and the EU ETS: lessons learned from previous emissions trading schemes2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Designing an emissions trading scheme requires in-depth knowledge about several aspects. This paper attempts to clarify some important design points of the forthcoming emissions trading scheme for aviation under the EU ETS. Five general key points of system design are acknowledged and comparisons are made to previous and current emission trading schemes. Above all, it is argued that initial allocations of emission permits and the trade barrier between the aviation sector and EU ETS need to be carefully examined.

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  • 219.
    Kopsch, Fredrik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    The cost of aircraft noise – Does it differ from road noise?: A meta-analysis2016In: Journal of Air Transport Management, ISSN 0969-6997, E-ISSN 1873-2089, Vol. 57, p. 138-142Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper aims at studying the difference in cost between aircraft noise and road noise using meta-analysis. 90 NDI estimates have been gathered from the literature (a total of 53 studies), out of which 44 are estimates for aircraft noise and 46 are for road noise. The results of the meta-regression suggest that aircraft noise costs somewhere in the range of 0.40 and 0.60 percent more per increased dB than road noise. Knowing the associations between these costs of noise pollution can be a convenient tool for planners and policy makers, offering an opportunity to make predictions of aircraft noise when only estimates of road noise are available, and vice versa.

  • 220.
    Krüger, Niclas
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Does infrastructure really cause growth?: the time scale dependent causality nexus between infrastructure investments and GDP2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the relationship between infrastructure investments and economic activity in Sweden for the period 1800-2000. In order to overcome the problem of endogeneity, independent time scales are used to analyze the relationship. The paper also examines the dynamics between the variables by testing for causality in the Granger sense and constructing a vector autoregressive model separately for each time scale. The finding is that the causality nexus between growth and transport infrastructure investment is timescale-dependent since it reverses in a comparison of the short-run dynamics (2-4 years) and the longer-run dynamics (8-16 years). This causality reversal is unique for infrastructure investments compared to investments in other sectorsof the economy.

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  • 221.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Estimating Traffic Demand Risk: A Multiscale Analysis2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 10, p. 1741-1751Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the timescale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950-2005. In general, rail transport shows a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transport. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice between public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.

  • 222.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm. Örebro University.
    Fatal Connections: Socioeconomic Determinants of Road Accident Risk and Drunk Driving in Sweden2013In: Journal of Safety Research, ISSN 0022-4375, E-ISSN 1879-1247, Vol. 46, p. 49-65Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Problem: In recent years a considerable number of papers have examined socioeconomic factors influencing the number and the outcome of traffic accidents. There is however more research needed to confirm the previous results in order to generalize them and a need to examine additional factors that might have an impact.

    Method: This paper uses both regional panel data and national time series data combined with filtering techniques to determine what factors influence the number of accidents, the accident outcome and detected drunk driving.

    Results: Using time series data, it is found that the number of traffic fatalities increases for both per capita and per person kilometer travelled during economic booms. This indicates that the death risk rises not only because of increased mileage or motorization during booms. Using panel data, it is found that traffic fatalities decrease with unemployment, whereas personal injuries increase on a per capita basis with youth and the number of cars. In contrast to property crimes and other types of crime, drunk driving in Sweden decreases during economic contractions. Discussion: The main policy conclusion from our results is that resources for safety measures should not be spend uniformly across time and space. Instead, safety measures should be concentrated to areas with a high share of young people and to periods with low unemployment. The results of the time series analysis suggest that factors other than increased mileage during booms contribute to the higher rate of fatalities during good times. Increased risk taking, such as drunk driving, might be an explanatory factor.

    Impact on Industry: The results might be interesting for safety-oriented car and truck producers as well for developers of traffic safety products, since the results indicate in what regional markets and under what market conditions their products are most needed.

  • 223.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Karlstad University, Department of Economics.
    The Impact of Economic Fluctuations on Crime: A Multiscale Analysis2011In: Applied Economics Letters, ISSN 1350-4851, E-ISSN 1466-4291, Vol. 18, no 2, p. 179-182Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article we use a wavelet-based approach in order to analyse the periodicity in the relationship between economic fluctuations and different types of crime. All examined types of crime share seasonal behaviour with variations of real economic activity. Removing the intrayear dynamics, we find that the effect of real economic activity is different between different types of crime. We conclude that property crimes, violence crimes and sex crimes are countercyclical. The reverse is true for both alcohol/drug-related crimes and economic crimes, because there is a highly significant increase of these types of crime during economic expansions.

  • 224.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    To Kill a Real Option: Incomplete contracts, real options and PPP2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 8, p. 1359-1371Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper is concerned with the implications of public-private partnership agreements for the execution of expansion options in road infrastructure. More specifically, it analyzes the expansion of an existing two-lane road in Sweden, and examines the real options created by an intermediate type of road with three lanes. Interpreting the results from real option analysis in the light of incomplete contract theory, this paper finds that external congestion costs might necessitate public ownership to ensure a social optimal outcome in public-private partnerships.

  • 225.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Haglund, Alexander
    Karlstad University, Department of Economics.
    Consumer Value of Fuel Choice Flexibility: A Case Study of the Flex-Fuel Car in Sweden2013In: European Transport Research Review, ISSN 1867-0717, E-ISSN 1866-8887, Vol. 5, no 4, p. 207-215Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Purpose

    This paper examines the value of fuel choice flexibility derived from a flex-fuel engine.

    Method

    Based on the stochastic properties of fuel prices, we use Monte-Carlo simulation in order to value the option to switch fuel.

    Results

    Our findings indicate a considerable value of fuel choice flexibility, ranging between 7,500 and 37,800 SEK, depending on the underlying stochastic process we assume that fuel prices follow. This can be compared to the state subsidy of 10,000 SEK provided until recently for buying a flex-fuel car.

    Conclusion

    Compared to an environmentally friendly pure ethanol strategy, the switching strategy is considerably less costly, about 2,000–19,000 SEK depending on the assumed underlying stochastic process, a fact that is important to take into consideration with environmental policy.

  • 226.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    et al.
    Örebro Universitet.
    Svensson, Mikael
    Karlstad Universitet, Örebro Universitet.
    Good Times are Drinking Times: Empirical Evidence on Business Cycles and Alcohol Sales in Sweden 1861-20002010In: Applied Economics Letters, ISSN 1350-4851, E-ISSN 1466-4291, Vol. 17, no 6, p. 543-546Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article studies the relationship between the business cycle and alcohol sales in Sweden using a data set for the years 1861-2000. Using wavelet-based band-pass filtering, it is found that there is a pro-cyclical relationship, i.e. alcohol sales increases in short-term economic upturns. Using moving window techniques, we see that the pro-cyclical relationship holds over the entire time period. We also find that alcohol sales are a long-memory process with nonstationary behaviour, i.e. a shock in alcohol sales has persistent effects.

  • 227.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    et al.
    Örebro Universitet, Karlstads Universitet.
    Svensson, Mikael
    Örebro Universitet, Karlstads Universitet.
    The Impact of Real Options on Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions2009In: Journal of Health Economics, ISSN 0167-6296, E-ISSN 1879-1646, Vol. 28, no 3, p. 563-569Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Public investments are dynamic in nature, and decision making must account for the uncertainty, irreversibility and potential for future learning. In this paper we adapt the theory for investment under uncertainty for a public referendum setting and perform the first empirical test to show that estimates of the value of a statistical lite (VSL) from stated preference surveys are highly dependent on the inclusion of the option value. Our results indicate an option value of a major economic magnitude. This implies that previously reported VSL estimates, used in societal benefit-cost analysis of health investments, are exaggerated.

  • 228.
    Krüger, Niclas A.
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Precautionary and operative costs of freight train delays: a case study of a Swedish grocery company2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    There is limited knowledge about the valuation of reduced transport time variability for freight transports. This paper analyses a Swedish grocery company’s transports by shuttle train, as a case study. The distribution of the train arrival time is analyzed; it is shown that the 10 per cent worst delays contribute to more than half of the total train delays. Type and amount of the firm’s precautionary and operative costs are identified and calculated. It is shown that it is possible to get estimates for the cargo component of the VTTV (Value of Transport Time Variability) valid for the specific company based on the precautionary costs, the operative costs for delays and for the costs for cancellations separately or in combination. Further case studies are advocated in order to cover the whole freight transport market and study the differences between different segments of the market.    

  • 229.
    Krüger, Niclas
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Jong, Gerard de
    Significance, Den Haag.
    Halse, Askill
    Transportøkonomisk Institutt, TØI.
    Killi, Marit
    Transportøkonomisk Institutt, TØI.
    Value of freight time variability reductions: results from a pilot study performed on behalf of the Swedish Transport Administration2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Unreliable rail transports are the main contributor to the transport time variability. The Swedish Transport Administration registered around 40 000 delay hours in 2012, which corresponds roughly to 20 million tonne-delay-hours, given that 500 tonnes per train is assumed to be the average load. This figure is 10 times higher than the corresponding figure for road transports. Information about the reliability of the rail transports and how different policy measures influence i.e. the number and length of delays and or the risks for delays has been limited. The former has been improved in recent years but the latter is still a problem. The lack of underlying data is one reason why the recommended Value of reduced transport time variability (VTTV) have only been applied in a few rail infrastructure projects. Nevertheless, the industry complains about the extensive problems caused by train delays or cancellations and that the reduction of these problems is not taken into account in a proper way in the cost benefit analyses (CBA). Another question that is debated is how much more high value products would be transported by rail if the rail transports would be more reliable. The value of the outgoing goods transported by road (SEK 9.5 per kg) is about three times the value of the outgoing goods transported by rail or rail in combination with other modes (SEK 3.7 per kg). The Transport Administration are aware of the shortcomings and has among others funded this pilot study that studies different approaches to calculate the VTTV for the cargo transported. The following parts were carried out in the pilot study: • Part One presents the Stated preference studies (SP-studies) to calculate VTTS (Value of Transport Time Savings) and VTTV that have been carried out recently in The Netherlands and Norway. Part One also discusses to what extent the VTTV calculated in the Dutch and Norwegian SP-studies can be transferred to Sweden. It is shown that the VTTV calculated in the Dutch and Norwegian SP-studies in principle can be transferred to Sweden. However, empirical studies that are adjust with respect to the commodity mix, the transport distances, level of congestion etc. in Sweden are needed. • In Part Two three alternative approaches to calculate VTTV for Swedish rail freight transports are demonstrated, that to the best of our knowledge have not been implemented before o Precautionary costs approach, o COOP case study, o Stock market approach. The report includes a table that summarizes VTTV for goods carried by rail, calculated using the different approaches.

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  • 230.
    Kågeson, Per
    KTH.
    Options for Europe when acting alone on CO2 emissions from shipping2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper was prepared as a contribution to the Working Group on Ships of the European Union's European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) and presented on 22–23 June 2011 at the second meeting of the group. It discusses various options that may be considered by the EU when contemplating, in the absence of any progress in the International Maritime Organzation (IMO), to act unilaterally on market-based measures for curbing CO2 emissions from international shipping. Focus is, in particular, on the pros and cons of introducing a hybrid scheme where emissions from domestic shipping and other small vessels (below a certain size threshold) are addressed by up-stream allocation of liability, i.e. with the fuel suppliers, while a down-stream allocation of responsibility would apply to large ships and to journeys departing from ports outside of the EU. For the latter, the ship owner would be directly responsible for submission on emission allowances or, alternatively, for paying a CO2 charge or levy.

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  • 231.
    Kågeson, Per
    KTH.
    The financial implications of a Levy & GHG Fund2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper reviews the financial capabilities of a Levy on carbon dioxide emissions from international shipping as proposed in the International Maritime Organization (IMO) by Cyprus, Denmark, the Marshall Islands and Nigeria. The conclusion is that a relatively high levy would be required to create the resources needed for satisfying all four objectives brought forward by the proponents and in addition provide compensation to developing countries based on the principle of no net incidence. Choosing a low and stable rate would force the decision maker to forsake the task of offsetting any shipping emissions above a proposed (declining) cap, which would make the scheme less environmentally effective.

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  • 232.
    Kågeson, Per
    KTH.
    Vad skulle likabehandling av alla transportslag innebära för kustsjöfarten, miljön och behovet av infrastrukturinvesteringar?2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The cost of short-sea shipping on the seas surrounding Sweden will increase considerably after 2015 as a result of the introduction of stringent emission limits on NOx and sulphur. This may give trucks and trains an upper hand in market segments where customers can choose between sea transport and land-based modes. This report shows that the balance would shift in favor of shipping if government gives all modes an equal liability for external costs. With the internalization based on the short-term social marginal costs of infrastructure use, accident risk, and emissions of NOx, sulphur and CO2, rail will be losing market shares. In this scenario the current fairway dues would have to be lowered by at least 90 per cent in order to reflect the short-term marginal cost (rather than variable + fixed costs), while at the same time railway infrastructure charges would quadruple. A surprising result of the calculations is that long-distance freight transport by truck on the main road arteries that compete with short-sea shipping will by 2015 have internalized its short-term social marginal costs based on the current (2011) taxation of vehicles, roads and fuels. This is a result of an increasingly cleaner vehicle fleet and the use of the best roads whose social marginal costs for accidents and road tear are well below average. Equal treatment of all modes with regard to social cost liability will make it possible for short-sea shipping to relieve the national railway system of some of its growing capacity problems that would otherwise have to be resolved by substantial investment in additional rail infrastructure.

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  • 233.
    Landergren, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Berglund, Moa
    WSP.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Persson, Christer
    WSP.
    Waidringer, Jonas
    Logistic Landscapers.
    Andersson, Matts
    WSP.
    Flodén, Jonas
    Handelshögskolan vid Göteborgs Universitet.
    VTTV – Value of Transport Time Variability: Method development and synthesis. Value transfer, measurements, and decomposition of VTTV2015Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [sv]

    Transporttidsvinster (TTS) och minskad transporttidsvariation (TTV) för gods-och passagerartrafik är viktiga nyttoposter i de samhällsekonomiska kalkylerna inom transportsektorn. Ett av antagandena som behöver göras är den monetära värderingen av TTS och TTV – VTTS och VTTV. Resenärers värderingar av dessa mått baseras oftastpå SP-studier (Stated Preference). VTTS för godstrafik baseras på kostnaden för kapitalbindningen i, och därmed värdet av, godset. I nuläget antas VTTV vara lika med det dubbla VTTS. Transportörers nyttor av minskad transporttid och transporttidsvariation beräknas som en del av transportkostnaderna (i andra poster i kalkylen). Detta projekt fokuserar på VTTV för godstransporter.

    Den här rapporten består av två delar. Kapitel 2, som är skrivet av WSP, Handelshögskolan vid Göteborgs Universitet och Logistics Landscapers, beskriver WP 4 som handlar om vilket mått som ska användas för transporttidens variation, vilka delar VTTV består av samt härleder en matematisk modell för att beräkna VTTV.

    Syftet med WP 4 var ursprungligen att kartlägga och utvärdera olika mått för transporttidsvariationen (TTV). Med mått menas enheten som används för att kvantifiera variationen, som exempelvis standardavvikelsen eller den genomsnittliga förseningen. En litteraturstudie har genomförts där använda mått i 22 tidigare samhällsekonomiska studier i Sverige ochutomlands listas. En slutsats av litteraturstudien är att många olika mått använts, vilka kan kategoriseras under

    • Standardavvikelse
    • Spridning (ofta i form av skillnad mellan percentiler)
    • Andel av sändningar som är försenade
    • Genomsnittlig försening (om försenad)

    Fördelar och nackdelar med de olika måtten diskuteras. En annan slutsats är att valet av mått sällan diskuteras i de genomgångna studierna, utan man verkar ha valt ett mått som passar undersökningsmetoden. Vidare har det undersökts om det används mått inom logistikbranschen som skulle kunna passa TTV inom samhällsekonomin. Slutsatsen är att dessa mått (eller indikatorer) är framtagna med andra syften och för användning på mikronivå (företag eller enskilda transportkedjor) vilket gör det svårt att tillämpa dem på makronivå. Dock finns ett behov av mått på en mesonivå som gör det möjligt att analysera förändringar i transportsystemet ur båda perspektiv – samhällets och enskilda aktörers.

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  • 234.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Conclusions and recommendations2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The CATRIN project aimed at producing qualified research with the ambition to support the European transport policy, specifically to assist in the implementation of transport pricing. The project has thus both a strong research element and an element of short-term policy relevance. While this latter element requires a certain degree of simplicity the project emphasize that simplicity has to be created from the understanding of complexity. We have the ambition to have our research published in international scientific journals. We have involved different disciplines and does not focus on one single cost allocation approach but acknowledge that different viewpoints need to be taken in different situations. The project also recognizes that cost allocation (or pricing principle) recommendations need to be given in a short-term and a long-term perspective. The former stresses immediate implementation with a degree of uncertainty. The project will in a long-term perspective outline how these uncertainties can be resolved to suite the European transport policy for the future. Finally, our policy focus also means that CATRIN stresses the importance of dialogue with infrastructure managers.

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  • 235.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Olyckskostnader för oskyddade trafikanter: (Bilaga 4 i "Skadade fotgängare")2012Report (Other academic)
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  • 236.
    Lindberg, Per Olov
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Smith, Tony E
    University of Pennsylvania,.
    A note on a recent paper by Dagsvik on IIA and random utilities2016In: Theory and Decision, ISSN 0040-5833, E-ISSN 1573-7187, Vol. 82, no 2, p. 305-307Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In a recent paper in this journal, Dagsvik derives the class of independent random utility representations that are “equivalent” to the independence-from-irrelevant-alternatives (IIA) assumption by Luce (Individual choice behavior: a theoretical analysis. Wiley, New York, 1959). In this short note, we clarify the relations between this paper by Dagsvik, and a paper in Lindberg’s 2012 thesis.

  • 237.
    Lindgren, Anne-Li
    et al.
    Linköpings Universitet.
    Andersson, Martin
    Linköpings Universitet.
    Nyberg, Jonna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Transportsystemets kunder: en kritisk kunskapsöversikt2006Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The starting point of this literature review has been the customers of the transportation system identified by the Swedish Road Administration (SRA). One aim was to identify theoretical and methodological problems and the gap of knowledge that could be linked to the SRA use of the concept customer. Another aim was to identify important needs of knowledge. The literature review has been based on earlier research related to the use of the concept customer within different areas and disciplines: the public sector - health and medical service - child research, economics, consumer and consuming psychology, pedagogy and ethics. The discussion takes a perspective from bottom to top. This means that the discussion is focused on the consequence in first hand from the customers' perspective. Within this frame the SRA customers have been treated both from an individual perspective and a perspective of the industry. The literature review has shown that the use of the concept customer is complex and that it most truly includes different meanings and will raise different feelings when it comes to the definition of the concept customer, how it should be understood and used, but also if it is suitable to be used at all. The crucial point of the use of the concept customer and customer oriented work within the SRA will be the employees' definition, thoughts and attitude to the use of the concept customer. It could be questioned if it really contributes to the holistie approach the SRA aiming at. This needs further investigations. A conclusion is that there is a need for developing new tools in order to support and optimize well balanced decisions and actions both related to the desires of the customers and service to the customers.

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  • 238.
    Lindgren, Samuel
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vad styr valet av trafikslag för godstransporter?: en kunskapsöversikt2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this report is to compile and assess the research and knowledge base with regards to what determines the choice of mode from a business perspective. The literature review is based on grey research and scientific articles within transport economics and logistics.

    The literature identifies a range of factors that can potentially affect the decision-makers in their choice of transport mode. The factors that are reviewed in this survey are those that commonly occur within the literature and often deemed the most relevant.

    First, the influence of shipment attributes (value, damage sensitivity, time sensitivity, weight, density and volume) and transport distance are discussed. Surveys and behavioural studies show how the competitiveness of the transport modes depend on shipment attributes and transport distance. For certain shipments, the distance class and commodity type are such that it is only realistic to use a specific mode. Other factors that usually matter for the choice of mode will have little impact on the choice. The exact size of the contestable market is hard to measure, but it is likely that for a significant part of the goods flows on the freight transport market it is only realistic to use one specific transport mode.

    Second, the review analyses how the choice of mode is influenced by modal characteristics (transport cost, transport time, reliability, shipment frequency and damage risk). The importance of these characteristics vary across decision-makers, partly according to transport distance and commodity class, but is generally relatively low. In other words, the propensity to switch transport mode as modal characteristics change is relatively low. This may be due to the effects only measuring the impact in the short and medium term, that they are based on changes in a single factor holding other determinants constant or that the analysis miss how decision-makers actually weigh in modal characteristics in their choice of transport mode.

    Third, the review discusses how the firms’ choice of distribution and production strategies entails possibilities and limits for its choice of transport mode. This analysis identifies multiple factors that tend to facilitate the choice of multimodal transport chains and direct rail or sea transports. These factors mitigate the effect of multimodal transports’ disadvantages or facilitate the utilization of its advantages. Generally, this entails promoting shipments of larger volumes and economies of scale that can be utilized by rail and sea transports.

    Fourth, the transport contract and the relationship between buyers and sellers of transport services are investigated. The contract can facilitate or limit the choice of transport mode by distributing risk and limit the way the firms can perform their operations. A close cooperation between transport buyers and transport companies can make the parties more aware of this possibilities and problems that the transport solution entails.

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  • 239.
    Lindé, Tobias
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    An evaluation of the environmentally differentiated fairway dues in Sweden 1998–20172018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report aims to present and analyze the development of the environmentally differentiated fairway dues in Sweden and the impacts of the system. A system differentiated for sulphur oxides (SOx) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) was introduced in 1998. The implementation of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) stricter SOx requirements in the Baltic and North Sea areas in 2015 made the SOx differentiation obsolete. In 2018 the system was replaced by a new fee system with different differentiation.

    The Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) is responsible for determining and collecting the fairway dues and is also dependent on this income as an important source of funding for its activities. The amounts to be paid and the emission levels that are necessary to be eligible for a certificate that entitles discounts are stated in the SMA’s regulations on fairway dues. These regulations have changed over the years and to give an overview of these changes a presentation of regulations and found amendments is provided.

    Except for some early studies evaluating the first few years of the environmentally differentiated fairway dues, little has been done to evaluate the impact of the policy instrument that was in place for 20 years. The information found in previous studies, annual reports and available data provided by the SMA is compiled and analyzed to present the impacts of the fairway dues from 1998 to 2017.

    The numbers and characteristics of vessels with SOx and NOx reduction certificates are compiled from several sources. Abatement techniques and costs are discussed. Available estimates of reduced emissions from certified vessels are presented and analyzed. As far as possible, the costs and benefits for society of reduced emissions are compared and the contribution to fulfillment of environmental objectives is discussed. More emphasis is placed on the NOx differentiation since problems with high levels of NOx emissions remain whereas SOx emissions have declined substantially in the Baltic Sea, especially since the implementation of stricter IMO requirements.

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  • 240.
    Lindé, Tobias
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Cullinane, Kevin
    Göteborgs Universitet.
    Evaluating the effects of Sweden's environmentally differentiated fairway dues2019In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 70, p. 77-93Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]
    • Evaluation of a globally unique system of environmentally differentiated fairway dues.
    • The evolution of the system and its effects are analyzed.
    • Emissions reductions achieved and associated abatement costs are estimated.
    • Costs and benefits for society are compared.
    • Abatement costs for both SOx and NOx substantially lower than value to society.
  • 241.
    Link, Heike
    et al.
    DIW, Berlin.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Infrastructure2005In: Measuring the Marginal Social Cost of Transport / [ed] Chris Nash & Bryan Mattews, Elsevier, 2005, 1, p. 49-84Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 242. Link, Heike
    et al.
    Stuhlemmer, Anna
    DIW Berlin.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Abrantes, Pedro
    Wheat, Phil
    Iwnicki, Simon
    Nash, Chris
    Smith, Andrew
    ITS.
    Cost allocation Practices in the European Transport Sector2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This deliverable D1, Cost Allocation practices in the European Transport Sector, is one of two reports from WP1 - State of the art methodology and survey of existing practice. It summarises the existing practice of cost estimation and cost allocation in all modes of transport. Its purpose is to identify gaps and open issues in allocation methods which currently prevent the use of marginal cost figures in pricing, and to analyse the methodological background of available studies. As the whole CATRIN project, the focus is on infrastructure costs, e.g. on the costs of providing, maintaining, renewing and operating infrastructure. The second deliverable from WP1 provides the internal blueprint for the case studies to be conducted in CATRIN.

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  • 243. Link, Heike
    et al.
    Stuhlemmer, Anna
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Internal blueprint for case studies2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report highlights four important tasks for CATRIN. o To provide more evidence on the relationship between marginal cost (MC) and average cost (AC), i.e the cost elasticity. Ultimately this relationship will define the rate of cost coverage from marginal cost based charges. o To improve the knowledge on the shape of the cost curve (decreasing versus increasing). The shape of the MC curve will define the MC based price and rate of cost coverage for infrastructure with different levels of traffic demand and thus explain regional differences. o To increase the knowledge of marginal cost in relation to different vehicle types. For this differentiation the CATRIN case studies include a meta-analysis of engineering experience in the field of infrastructure deterioration. o To improve the comparability of results between different studies and ensure a clear classification of cost items included. An important characteristic of research on marginal cost estimation for infrastructure is the lack of sufficiently detailed data on the cost of maintaining, operating and renewing transport infrastructure as well as on the use of infrastructure across all modes of transport. It appears that for applying state-of-the-art estimation methods, researchers have to allocate a considerable bulk of time and resources to collect this type of data. This will also hold true for the CATRIN case studies. While a general improvement of the data situation is a task for the administrations in the sector and cannot be subject of a research project like CATRIN, the CATRIN case studies have to anticipate this problem and should care for a thorough documentation of data collection including a precise definition of the type of data collected.

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  • 244.
    Ljungberg, Anders
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Impacts of increased rail infrastructure charges in Sweden2012In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 39, no 1, p. 90-103Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The impacts of the already decided increase in rail infrastructure charges in Sweden are described for various market segments within the rail transport system and on the aggregate level for society as a whole. The need for complementary measures in the road transport system is also discussed. Likewise, the paper also mentions the impact of increased rail infrastructure charges on certain significant industrial sectors. An increase in rail charges may reduce social welfare even though the reduction in rail transport mileage is small. This is mainly due to large non-internalised absolute externalities for road freight. For commuter trains, the infrastructure charges' share of the costs of rail transport is expected to rise to 13 percent, which in an international perspective still will be small.

  • 245.
    Ljungberg, Anders
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Local public Transport on the Basis of Social Economic Criteria2010In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 29, no 1, p. 339-345Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Applying the welfare economic approach it is demonstrated what the effects of certain supply changes in the local public transport will be and the potential of innovative demand management measures are examined. Straighter bus routes would reduce the average travel time from door to door. The travel time on the buses decreases and the frequency increases, which reduces waiting times at bus stops. Using smaller buses and more of them would also increase the net benefit, but increase the need for subsidisation. The peak within the peak in the morning is hard to handle by price policy alone. Introducing a small variation of the start of the school-day for high-school pupils would make investment- and operation cost savings possible, and the inconvenience costs for the pupils could be limited. It is only during peak hours in the main direction of peak travel and in the critical section of the line that optimal price becomes high relative to the present level. Zero fares in off-peak will be social profitable, but an increase in subsidy is needed. An introduction of these policy changes would give rise to a net social benefit of 30 million SEK per year in Linköping.

  • 246.
    Ljungberg, Anders
    Linköpings Universitet.
    Staggered school hours to spread peak demand for public transport: benefits and costs2009In: International Journal of Transport Economics, ISSN 0303-5247, E-ISSN 1724-2185, Vol. 36, no 1, p. 141-160Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The author uses a case study of student transportation by public bus in Linkoping, Sweden, to discuss the possibility of public transportation peak demand spread through staggered school hours. The study found that introducing a staggered morning start for Linkoping's high schools can substantially reduce extreme morning peak at only one departure point on Linkoping's many lines. It demonstrated that bus service cost savings from the leveling out of the extreme morning peak could be of the same magnitude as costs for students resulting from a change in school hours. Staggered school hours could introduce other changes that could benefit the bus transportation system while reducing student costs. Cooperation between the public transportation authority and the high school headmasters is the biggest challenge.

  • 247.
    Lorenzo Varela, Juan Manuel
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Daly, Andrew
    Capturing generalised cost differences between public transport modes in Stockholm2016Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Decision makers in many European countries seem to prefer rail over bus services, claiming that travellers prefer services operating on tracks, the preference is referred to as a “rail factor”. This assumption is to some extent supported by Eliasson’s (2016) finding that accessibility by metro increases the property prices of apartments in Stockholm more than accessibility by bus. Nevertheless, common large-scale transport models struggle to capture these effects.

    In this paper we show how state-of-practice large-scale models can be enhanced to capture these nuances by modelling public transport modes as different alternatives. Results suggest that differences among public transport alternatives are strongly linked to unobserved attributes. Surprisingly, we found no statistical evidence that differences are proportional to the in-vehicle time, suggesting that in-vehicle characteristics of public transport modes, such us comfort, are perceived as similar by the users. We also found that the value of time is higher for auxiliary modes than for the main mode, and that the unobserved preference for metro is highest and the preference for light rail lowest. These are empirical findings for the transport system of Stockholm, and whether these findings can be generalised to other cities is an empirical matter. However, the methodology developed in the present paper provides the possibility to investigate these issues further.

  • 248.
    Lunander, Anders
    et al.
    Örebro universitet.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Taking the Lab to the Field: Experimental Tests of Alternative Mechanisms to Procure Multiple Contracts2004In: Journal of Regulatory Economics, ISSN 0922-680X, E-ISSN 1573-0468, Vol. 25, no 1, p. 39-58Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The first part of the paper reports the results from a sequence of laboratory experiments comparing the bidding behavior for multiple contracts in three different sealed bid auction mechanisms; first-price simultaneous, first-price sequential and first-price combinatorial bidding. The design of the experiment is based on experiences from a public procurement auction of road markings in Sweden. Bidders are asymmetric in their cost functions; some exhibit decreasing average costs of winning more than one contract, whereas other bidders have increasing average cost functions. The combinatorial bidding mechanism is demonstrated to be most efficient. The second part of the paper describes how the lab experiment was followed up by a field test of a combinatorial procurement auction of road markings.

  • 249.
    Lundberg, Mattias
    et al.
    KTH.
    Jenpanitsub, Anchalee
    Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Cost overruns in Swedish transport projects2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost overrun of transport projects is one of the most important problems in transport planning. It also makes the result of the cost-benefit analyses uncertain, thus decreasing their usefulness for decision making. In recent years more emphasis has been put on improving cost calculations and reducing cost overruns, in Sweden and internationally. Still cost overruns have not decreased. We find that the average cost overrun in Swedish road projects is similar to other countries, while it is lower than in other countries for rail. Small projects (< 100 million SEK) have much higher cost overruns than large projects and constitute a large share of total overruns. A project type with large overruns, both in absolute and relative terms, is new rail tracks on existing lines. To improve cost estimates in Sweden, the Successive Calculation method has recently been applied. We find that the variance is significantly lower in these than in actual outcomes, and that the difference is surprisingly small between projects in different planning stages. Another method, Reference Class Forecasting, is demonstrated in two case studies. It results in higher required uplifts. An interesting way forward would be to develop risk-based estimating, based on principal component analysis. To do that, a database needs to be collected, which in turn demands better follow-up procedures.

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  • 250.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    A Comparison of Unit Price and Fixed Price Contracts for Infrastructure Construction Projects2010Conference paper (Refereed)
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