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  • 151.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lindgren, Hanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Modellering av järnvägstransporter: en översikt kring datakällor2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Information on freight and passenger flows is vital for advancing knowledge on railway transport. In addition to providing a description of the current use of railway transportation, the flows of freight and passengers can be used in transport models to make transportation forecasts. Such forecasts can, for example, be used to evaluate infrastructure investments, or to analyze the impact of new restrictions or new policies. The transport statistics in Sweden are, however, quite aggregate, which makes forecasts and other types of estimations rather uncertain. There is therefore reason to describe the current modelling of railway transport, as well as its development and potential in combining different (and new) data sources to provide the information on railway transport that is requested.

    Sampers and Samgods are the national models in Sweden for freight and passenger transports, respectively. Three types of data are used in Sampers: data describing travel behavior, information about the transport network and public transport services, as well as attraction measures for trips to the different geographical zones in the model. The output from the demand model are passenger flows for each transport mode and destination. Train passengers are distributed on the railway network based on current traffic flows, while anticipated timetables are used in the forecasts. This generates information on the number of trips for each railway link during a year (that is, between stations or nodes on railway lines), as well as the number of embarking and disembarking passengers on the railway stations. These results need validation, which inter alia is performed by regions within the Swedish Transport Administration, using passenger statistics.

    Data inputs for Samgods are information on the transport network, cost data, regulations, production and consumption data and goods flows. The data on goods flows are gathered from foreign trade statistics and the national commodity flow survey. The production and consumption data are used together with the goods flows data to calculate the transported volume of 34 different commodity types between 464 zones (of which 290 are municipalities in Sweden). A separate tool called Bangods is used to generate rail freight transport on the different track sections comprising the railway network. This is based on rail traffic data, which however lacks information on the type of freight trains as well as commodity type and volume of goods per train. At present, the output for rail freight transport consists of goods flows during a year on the different track sections (about 300), segmented into different types of freight trains and 12 groups of commodities.

    Transport modelling approaches are becoming more disaggregate. More specifically, there is a development towards activity-based models for passenger transport, while modelling of logistic choices at company level is becoming more common for freight transport. This development requires more disaggregate data, in both time and space. The rapid technological development has provided new opportunities in collecting disaggregate data, notably through low prices and improved performance of the technical units required to record and communicate information on the positioning of people, goods or vehicles. Examples on data sources are data from radionavigation-satellite services (Global Positioning System, GPS), cell phone data, Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) or other types of sensors (for train weight or number of embarking and disembarking passengers).

    There are pros and cons with these different data sources in transport modelling; one type of data source cannot cover the information needs. A combination of data can therefore be a solution. For example, GPS data and cell phone data can be good complements, as the former have a higher level of detail while the latter have larger blind spots. Still, a general problem with the automatic collection of data is that only a sub-sample of the trips are captured; even though it generates more detailed information on the position and timing of trips compared to traditional travel surveys, it is still based on a sub-sample of the trips made, which can create a selection bias. Moreover, this type of data lacks information on socio-economic aspects and the purpose of the trip. However, information on work and home location can be derived from mobility patterns based on GPS or cell phone data, which in turn can be linked to socio-economic information (at least at an aggregate level). Nevertheless, information on passenger and freight flows can be useful in the calibration and validation of the transport models. For instance, train payload measurements can be used to derive information on the number of passengers on each train (potentially between all stations if the train has a weighing capability, or if enough stationary weight detectors are installed on the infrastructure). Moreover, even though the weight of a freight train does not reveal the commodity type, it can be used in the calibration of Samgods and provide a more accurate flow of goods on different trains and track sections. In other words, new technology and data collection methods provide a significant potential for generating more disaggregate data on transport flows.

  • 152.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Estimating the marginal maintenance cost of rail infrastructure usage in Sweden: does more data make a difference?2015In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper updates knowledge about the marginal cost of railway maintenance. Using a panel dataset comprising 16 years, we test whether more data makes a difference to conclusions. In contrast to previous estimates using a shorter panel, maintenance costs are now demonstrated to exhibit a positive dynamic effect; an increase in maintenance cost during one year indicates the need for more maintenance also the next year. Moreover, the marginal cost from the dynamic model is larger than its static counterpart. We conclude that the use of dynamic models on longer time series may have charging implications in several EU member states, considering that their track access charges are based on econometric studies that use static models and short panel datasets.

  • 153.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Underhåll i egen regi?: metod och databehov för en utvärdering av järnvägsunderhåll2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Maintenance of the state-owned railway network in Sweden is currently tendered in competition. However, during 2016, the infrastructure manager Trafikverket (Swedish Transport Administration) was commissioned by the Swedish government to analyze and present appropriate measures to organize and produce rail maintenance in-house. This includes an investigation that is based on an inhouse production of maintenance in at least two geographically defined areas, with the aim to compare it with maintenance tendered in competition. This memorandum describes the method and data needs for an evaluation of whether in-house production is preferable to maintenance tendered in competition or not.

    This type of evaluation should measure potential differences in socio-economic efficiency between the organizational alternatives. How in-house maintenance affects costs for production and administration should therefore be determined together with its impact on cost for delays. A challenge is to isolate the effect from differences in preconditions for the maintenance production, such as differences in infrastructure characteristics and in traffic. A comparison should for example consider economies of scale and economies of density as the size of maintenance areas and the traffic volume differs. This implies that key performance indicators such as cost per ton-km is not suitable in this case. An ideal comparison should also consider that possible savings (cost increases) can lead to losses (gains) in the long run, which means that the effects should be assessed over a longer period.

  • 154.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Price elasticities of demand for (garage) parking in Stockholm2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    There is scope for generating welfare effects by changing parking fees, where knowledge on price elasticities are central elements in the implementation of an efficient parking policy. In this paper, we estimate price elasticities of demand for five parking garages in the central business district of Stockholm, using transaction data and a price increase implemented in January 2017. The econometric results for the purchased parking hours show an average elasticity estimate at -0.60, while the effect on the decision to park is -0.45. These elasticities vary for the different parking garages, showing that there is a considerable heterogeneity between garages, even within the central business district, which needs to be considered for an efficient parking policy. Based on our estimated elasticity for garage parking (-0.60) and a willingness to pay a premium for curbside parking in previous research, we calculate a proxy for the elasticity of curbside parking in Stockholm, which is found to be -0.39.

  • 155.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Smith, Andrew S. J.
    University of Leeds.
    Assessing the Cost Impact of Competitive Tendering in Rail Infrastructure Maintenance Services Evidence from the Swedish Reforms (1999 to 2011)2016In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 50, p. 93-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This is the first paper in the literature to formally study the cost impact of competitive tendering in rail maintenance. Sweden progressively opened up the market for rail maintenance services, starting in 2002. We study the cost impacts based on an unbalanced panel of thirty-nine contract areas between 1999 and 2011, using econometric techniques. We conclude that competitive tendering reduced costs by around 11 per cent. Importantly, this cost reduction was not associated with falling quality; quite the reverse. We thus conclude that the gradual exposure of rail maintenance to competitive tendering in Sweden has been a success.

  • 156.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Smith, Andrew S.J.
    ITS Leeds.
    Assessing the cost impact of competitive tendering in rail infrastructure maintenance services: evidence from the Swedish reforms (1999-2011)2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This is the first paper in the literature to formally study the cost impact of competitive tendering in rail maintenance. Sweden progressively opened up the market for rail maintenance services, starting in 2002. We study the cost impacts based on an unbalanced panel of contract areas between 1999 and 2011, using econometric techniques. We conclude that competitive tendering reduced costs by around 12%. This cost reduction was not associated with falling quality as measured by track quality class, track geometry or train derailments. We conclude that the gradual exposure of rail maintenance to competitive tendering in Sweden has been beneficial.

  • 157.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Wheat, Phill
    Dynamics in rail infrastructure provision: Maintenance and renewal costs in Sweden2018In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we extend to the literature on marginal wear and tear cost estimation in railways, by applying a panel vector autoregressive model to rail infrastructure renewals and maintenance costs, using an extensive dataset from Sweden. This study is significant given the inherent difficulties in modelling the substantial renewals element of infrastructure costs, as well as the need to account for the dynamics in renewals and maintenance. The dynamic model allows us to estimate equilibrium cost elasticities with respect to train usage, which are significantly larger than their static counterparts. Overall, this work highlights that dynamics in rail infrastructure costs are important to consider when setting track access charges with respect to the wear and tear caused by traffic. This is particularly important given several countries, for example France, Sweden and Switzerland, are now setting access charges at marginal costs based on econometric studies.

  • 158.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Yarmukhamedov, Sherzod
    Riksrevisionen.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    The marginal cost of track reinvestments in the Swedish railway network: using data to compare methods2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, we analyze the difference between survival and corner solution models in estimating the marginal cost of reinvestments. Both approaches describe the reinvestment process in rather intuitively similar ways but have several methodological distinctions. We use Swedish railway data on track segment and section levels over the period 1999-2016 and focus on reinvestments in track superstructure. Results suggest the marginal costs from survival and corner solution models are SEK 0.0041 and SEK 0.0103, respectively. The conclusion is that the corner solution model is more appropriate, as this method consider the impact traffic has on the risk of reinvestment as well as on the size of the reinvestment cost. The survival approach does not consider the latter, which is problematic when we have systematic variations in costs due to traffic and infrastructure characteristics.

  • 159.
    Olsson, Nils O. E.
    et al.
    Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Governance regimes for large transport infrastructure investment projects: Comparative analysis of Norway and Sweden2019In: Case Studies on Transport Policy, ISSN 2213-624X, E-ISSN 2213-6258Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The two Nordic countries Norway and Sweden have launched governance regimes for the early phases of transport infrastructure investments after experiencing frequent cost overruns and low cost-benefit ratios. This study seeks to find out if these governance regimes have reduced the escalation of costs from early estimates to finalized projects and influenced the choice of projects away from those with lower benefit to cost ratios. We have compared governance regimes for major transport infrastructure investments in the two countries and examined the development and content of quality assurance activities, the involvement of internal and external parties, their duties and responsibilities, their stage gate models, and how decisions are made. The findings are that both countries have introduced formalizations of their governance regimes that mandate project reviews during the planning process and quality assurance, both of which have increased early cost estimates. One difference was that in Norway, the Ministry of Finance manages the quality assurance scheme and imposes external quality assurance requirements, while Sweden has no corresponding ministerial oversight. Therefore, on the one hand, the process is more strictly formalized in Norway, but on the other hand, cost-benefit ratios appear to have more weight in Sweden. Furthermore, although both countries have done several ex post evaluations, neither country has introduced a formalized ex post evaluation process allowing for systematic examination of the causes of cost overruns and low benefit to cost ratios. Even so, politicians may manoeuvre projects with lower benefit to cost ratios around the governance systems in both countries. Finally, some projects in both countries still have experienced significant cost escalations despite these processes.

  • 160.
    Olykke, Grith Skovgaard
    et al.
    Copenhagen Business School.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Defining abnormally low tenders: A comparison between Sweden and Denmark2017In: Journal of Competition Law, ISSN 1744-6414, E-ISSN 1744-6422, Vol. 13, no 4, p. 666-709Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The concept of an abnormally low tender is not defined in EU public procurement law. This article takes an interdisciplinary law and economics approach to examine a dataset consisting of Swedish and Danish judgments and verdicts concerning the concept of an abnormally low tender. The purpose is to determine how the concept has developed in practice in two Scandinavian countries with similar legal traditions, and whether the national solutions are economically efficient. The data indicate that economic operators use various pricing strategies which may result in tenders being rejected as abnormally low or the awards of contracts to such tenders being contested. The pricing strategies will (over time) result in the contracting authorities paying too high a price and they are, therefore, economically inefficient. It is concluded that diverse solutions to the handling of abnormally low tenders have developed in the two countries and, notably, that the approaches differ with regard to how they treat different pricing strategies. Thus, the solutions are also different in terms of economic efficiency.

  • 161.
    Peer, Stefanie
    et al.
    Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. KTH.
    Temporal framing of stated preference experiments: does it affect valuations?2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 117, p. 319-333Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we explore how valuations of trip attributes by train commuters differ between a short-run (departure time choice) and a long-run (travel routine choice) context using a unique SP experiment explicitly designed for this purpose. In the short-run version of the SP experiment, the respondents receive information about available travel options shortly before they had planned to travel. In the long-run version, the respondents receive information about available travel options one month ahead of the planned travel. The short-run context concerns temporary changes in available travel options, while the long-run context concerns permanent changes. We find significantly higher valuations of trip attributes in the long-run context. Moreover, our results indicate that the usual arrival time at work as well as the intrinsically preferred arrival time at work serve as reference points in the short-run as well as the long-run choice context, with the former dominating in the short-run context and the latter in the long-run context.

  • 162.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Cykelflödesvariationer i Stockholm och Göteborg: delrapport inom SAMKOST 32018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this project is to clarify the possibilities and the need for a pilot study aimed at measuring the marginal cost of congestion on bicycle paths. The goal of the measurements are exclusively to quantify the value of the delay caused by one further cyclist being present on the bicycle path. Ultimately, the goal is to be able to evaluate measures to broaden or otherwise improve the bicycle infrastructure.

    This memorandum describes variations in cycle flow over a longer period of time, over one year and over a day (during months and days with high flows) in Stockholm and Gothenburg, with the aim to estimate when measurements should be made of the extent and intensity of significant congestion on bicycle paths.

    Cycle flows vary by approximately a factor of 4 in Stockholm during the year in places with large flows and slightly less in Gothenburg, about a factor of 3. During peak hours, cycling flows show large variation during a day with shorter periods of high flows in the morning and afternoon.

    The presence of costly congestion can therefore be expected to be quite short in Sweden's two largest cities. An example indicates that at 20 percent of all bicycle passages across the Liljeholmen bridge in Stockholm, the cyclist experiences high levels of presence of other cyclists. However, this example is not claimed to be representative either this or other locations in the inner city of Stockholm.

  • 163.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Modelling effects of policy instruments for sustainable urban transport in Scandinavia2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to review the modelling used for the planning of infrastructure and design of policy instruments for transport in cities in Scandinavia, and to survey elasticities of transport demand with respect to policy instruments and important background variables. There are a number important objectives governing policy, maximizing welfare, reducing CO2and other emissions, curbing congestion on roads and crowding in public transport in cities and improving the conditions for walking and cycling.

    The current transport demand models in Sweden and Norway were originally built to serve the purpose of forecasting for national infrastructure planning, primarily outside cities. They were not designed to represent the adaption of car use, congestion on roads or crowding in public transport or the effects of improving of conditions for walking and cycling. Therefore, recent discussions on the needs to develop planning for cities has raised these issues. The central results from the survey of effects are that, car use is shown to be more price sensitive in urban than in rural areas, and larger the larger the city. Although the benefits of a given congestion charging system are considerably and non-linearly dependent on initial congestion levels, traffic effects and adaptationcosts are surprisingly stable across transport system modifications.

    The demand for car travel is largely insensitive to supply of public transport and on baseline congestion, and therefore on the total benefit of the charges. For public transport both population size and population density appear to independently influence public transport use. The estimated elasticities being 0,48 and 0,17 respectively. What is not obvious is when supply could improve net welfare. Both an increase in the population and the following crowding can motivate an increase in frequency by the increased net welfare. Large dense cities with more public transport are found to have less car use. The form of the city and its long time use of strategies to facilitate public transport use also decreases the market share of car travel and increases the share of public transport. In large cities density is also found to be correlated with less car and energy use in many cross-sectional studies. The idea that density could induce less car use and CO2-emissions is however challenged by a smaller number of longitudinal studies showing smaller effects from density to car use and CO2-emissions.

  • 164.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Vilken grad av prisdifferentiering?: En översikt av analyser av optimala taxor i kollektivtrafiken2016Report (Other academic)
  • 165.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Creutzer, Christopher
    Swedish Competition Authority / Konkurrensverket.
    Household car ownership in urban and rural areas in Sweden 1999–20082014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies household car ownership in urban and rural areas in Sweden using register data for all adult Swedes from 1999 to 2008. Data for individuals are linked to members of the same household, allowing us to estimate models of households. Multinomial ordered probit models for households’ private car ownership in Sweden are estimated and used to compare urban and rural households with respect to sensitivity of car ownership. The central result from comparing urban and rural households is that rural households are less likely to exit from car ownership and more likely to increase car ownership than comparable urban households. This supports the notion that rural households are more dependent on their cars than urban households. Rural car ownership is also more sensitive to fuel price changes and the number of adults in the household. Compared with other countries, our results indicate that Swedish households’ car ownership is very resistant to change. The status of the previous year’s car ownership as well as car ownership status in 1999 is dominant factors for household car ownership in 2008. Households with young adults are more likely to cease their car ownership and households with senior members are only slightly more likely to cease car ownership than middle-aged households. Households with higher income are less likely to cease car ownership then lower income households and more likely to increase their car ownership. Permanent income, defined as the average income over the period, has a larger positive impact on car ownership than current income.

  • 166.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Lindgren, Hanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Trängsel på spåren?: fördelning av tåglägen i tågplanerna 2014–20162016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, VTI examined the allocation of Swedish Transport Administration timetables 2014-2016 where we compare rail companies filed applications for train paths – as they were presented at the deadline for applications in spring for the coming timetable – with granted train paths in the annual timetable published in the autumn. The main result is that both freight and passenger companies receive roughly the same number of paths that were requested. VTI also examined what we call time offsets, i.e. adjustments in departure, arrival and driving times in the granted paths compared to the paths that were applied for. The time offsets are calculated for departure time, driving time and the arrival time. The time offsets can thus only be calculated for train paths that were both applied for and granted. This analysis shows that about 97 percent of passenger trains depart according to the original timetable during these years. For freight trains the corresponding data, unfortunately, has not been available and the corresponding analysis was not possible.

  • 167.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lindgren, Hanna
    Transportstyrelsen.
    Outcomes from new contracts with “strong” incentives for increasing ridership in bus transport in Stockholm2018In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Public Transport Association has adopted recommendations on incentives for increased ridership in tendered contracts, though there is little evidence on how public transport contracts should be designed to reach this goal. This study begins amassing the needed evidence by analyzing the performance of four Stockholm Region bus contracts spanning seven years, examining the new E20 contracts intended to increase ridership, customer satisfaction, and efficiency. These contracts employ 100 percent of payments to operators depending on the number of boarding and paying passengers. Using mostly monthly data, outcomes in E20-contracts in four areas (formerly governed by gross cost contracts) over three years are compared with outcomes in the years before the E20 contracts were implemented, and with two gross contracts running parallel to the E20 contract. Compared with gross cost operators in comparison areas, E20 operators performed better in terms of costs, customer satisfaction (initially worse but then better), punctuality, and canceled departures, but worse in number of departures and no better in number of passengers.

  • 168.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lindgren, Hanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Uppföljning av E20-avtalen2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Det finns för närvarande ytterst litet evidensbaserade rekommendationer för hur kollektivtrafikavtal bör konstrueras för att på bästa sätt ge drivkrafter för att nå målen. Detta projekt kan ses som ett första steg på vägen mot att skapa en sådan kunskapsbas. Svensk Kollektivtrafik och Partnersamverkan har också tagit initiativ i den riktningen genom att ge ut modellavtal och rekommendationer om resandeincitament.

    Den senaste genomgången av kollektivtrafikavtal från Trafikanalys (2015) indikerar dock att användningen av resandeincitament än så länge är blygsam. Denna studie har genomförts på uppdrag av Trafikförvaltningen i Stockholms läns landsting inom K2. I denna studie jämför vi utvecklingen i E20-avtalens områden med samma områden före E20-avtalen och med två jämförelseområden som omfattas av E13-avtal.

    E20-avtalen är den första avtalsgenerationen där Trafikförvaltningen i Stockholm prövar att helt koppla ersättningen till antalet påstigande. Det innebär att för varje verifierad betalande påstigande (VBP) utgår en ersättning. De uttalade målen för E20 avtalen är att öka resandet och kundnöjdheten samt att öka effektiviteten. Termen effektivitet ges ingen närmare definition i avtalet men tolkas här närmast som kostnader.

  • 169.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Två studier av kostnader för upphandlade asfaltbeläggningar2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report presents the results of two studies that analyze the costs of the Swedish Transport Administration’s (Trafikverket) tendered contracts for road pavements. Trafikverket provided two different sources of information about the pavement orders/contracts. The first is VUH database containing more than 20 000 registered and completed orders from the years 2001 to 2011. The second is a compilation of 285 contracts for replacement pavements, i.e. reinvestment in the form of new pavement on longer stretches of road, tendered in 2012 and 2013. The first study analyzes a subset of observations from the VUH database for the most frequent combinations of type and variety separately and for all observations. The results show that the price of bitumen has a strong impact on the cost of pavements: An increase in bitumen price by 10 percent, increases the price of pavements between 1.2 and 3.7 percent. There is some evidence of economies of scale in operations. The cost of pavements, thus increases by between 7 and 10 percent when the size of orders (in tons) increase by 10 percent. Competition measured as the number of active operators in the region during the year, has no significant effect. With some variation, the region of Skåne has lower and the region North region higher costs than other regions. The second demonstrates that cost increase by nearly six percent if the size (in square meters) of a contract increases by 10 percent. There are thus economies of scale to increase in size measured as area. The size of a contract may also be measured as the number of orders in each contract. The analysis indicates that the cost increases with the number of orders. That means that even though there may be economies of scale associated with the procurement of replacement pavements that are large as measured by the pavement are, there may still be reasons not to combine too many orders in one contract. One explanation may be that the distance between the component parts of the overall contract is too long.

  • 170.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Olstam, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Yahya, Mohammad-Reza
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Trängsel och knapphet på väg, järnväg och i kollektivtrafik: delstudie inom SAMKOST2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study is to take stock of Swedish data and studies that could form the basis of the estimation of marginal costs for congestion on roads and scarcity of railway capacity. Furthermore, the development of methods to estimate and evaluate the congestion in public transport is discussed. The Transport Administration’s investigation from 2013 indicates that there are persistent congestion problems in Stockholm that would be affected by adjustments to the toll cordon, congestion tax levels and differentiation with respect to time and place. A second part quantifies congestion in the road network outside urban areas by the use of extensive flow and velocity measurements from the E4 south of Stockholm as an example. This choice is justified as an example of a highly trafficked road link where the speed reductions occur regularly. The results show that the flows during May to December 2013 regularly were so high that speed dropped below 60 kilometer per hour for long periods. The marginal cost of congestion can be expressed as the change in the cost of a change in density and is highest at densities close to the road’s capacity. When the density is greatest, the marginal cost of one further car is about 10 SEK per kilometer. Compared to the taxes on petrol which is about 0,34 SEK per kilometer, which is considered to cover the marginal costs of all other externalities including carbon emissions. Thus, congestion costs may therefore be considered significant. For train slots, this study has used the Transport Administration’s electronic record of the operators’ requests for train slots from the National train plan for 2013 and the corresponding documentation of the determined slots. We find that the total of allocated slots for the largest operator of passenger trains in Sweden, SJ, received 99 percent of the slots it had applied for and Green Cargo 97 percent. This is not a strong indication of scarcity. For crowding in public transport there are a number of British studies of the valuation of travel in crowded conditions in passenger trains. These valuations have mostly been calculated as a multiplicative factor on time values when the passengers travel without crowding. The report presents studies that show that the willingness to pay may be substantially higher for a shorter travel time if the trip takes place in crowded conditions.

  • 171.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pettersson, Stefan
    Railrex.
    De nationella myndigheternas hantering av marknadsöppning inom kollektivtrafiken under 2012: Trafikverket, Transportstyrelsen, Konkurrensverket och Konsumentverket2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna rapport analyserar Trafikverkets, Transportstyrelsens, Konkurrensverkets och Konsumentverkets aktiviteter med järnvägs- och kollektivtrafikmarknaderna under januari till augusti 2012. Vi finner inga indikationer på att företag av Trafikverket förfördelats i tilldelningen av järnvägskapacitet. Däremot kan vi konstatera att flera banor överbelastningsförklarats i tågplan 2013 än i tågplan 2012 och att det även med de banavgiftshöjningar som genomförts fortfarande råder underprissättning av kapacitet, vilket innebär risker för felaktig allokering av kapacitet. Transportstyrelsen har även under 2012 i liten utstäckning följt upp utvecklingen av banavgifter och kapacitetsfördelning. Konkurrensverket har fått in fyra anmälningar med bäring på marknadsöppning medan Konsumentverket saknar tydliga indikationer på konkurrensproblem förknippade med marknadsöppningen i sina klagomål.

  • 172.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Differences in the effects of fuel price and income on private car use in Sweden 1999-20082015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to analyse how the use of privately owned cars in Sweden varies across a number of background parameters including fuel price, disposable income, car purchase cost index, children over 18, employment and the car owners’ distance to work. These factors are analysed separately for men and women, individuals living in urban, rural and sparsely populated areas as well as disposable income quartiles. In particular the adaptation of car use of low income car owners in rural and sparsely populated areas to fuel cost and disposable income variations is analysed. Register data of the whole population in Sweden taken from the Swedish tax authorities for 1999-2008 as well as kilometre readings from the National Vehicle Inspection is used. This allows tracking individual changes in car use over ten years as well as to contrast car use in rural and sparsely populated areas to car use in urban areas. Car use is modelled with a dynamic panel data specification, permitting proper methods to deal with endogeneity problems. Small geographical differences in the sensitivity to variations in disposable income are found. For fuel cost on the other hand, there is a tendency towards higher price sensitivity in rural areas especially in the two lowest income quartiles. In sparsely populated areas, there is no higher sensitivity of fuel price compared to urban areas. The income elasticity of car use is fairly small and decreases with increasing disposable income. This latter finding is compatible with the hypothesis of car driving saturation in the rich countries around the world. The car travel elasticity with respect to fuel price is estimated to be between -0.2 and -0.4 in the short run. Here the pattern is as expected with decreasing fuel-price elasticity with increasing income.

  • 173.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. K2.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    The influence of demand incentives in public transport contracts on patronage and costs in medium sized Swedish cities2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective to reduce carbon emissions has inspired Swedish regional public transport authorities (RPTA) to adopt a goal of doubling public transport patronage from 2006 to 2020. Several measures have been used to achieve this goal. Increasing the public transport supply and increasing the share of contract payments tied to demand incentives are among them. The purpose here is to examine the effect of demand incentives on patronage in tendered bus contracts, controlling for other factors that affect public transport patronage, with panel data for 17 medium sized Swedish cities from 1997 to 2011. In the data for a subset of 10 cities from 2000 to 2011 the number of trips increased by 36 percent, the supply of bus kilometers by 38 percent, the revenues per boarding with 49 percent and the total costs with 106 percent.

    The analysis does not find any statistically significant effects of demand incentives on either patronage or costs. In the demand models, only the effect of the price variable is significant and has the expected sign. In the cost models, all control variables have the expected signs and most are significant. Surprisingly, the estimate of the coefficient of the output variable bus kilometers is not significant. These results indicate that the combination of limited freedom for operators to influence important variables that determine demand and the demand incentives that were used during the observed period, were insufficient to give statistically significant effects.

    Contrary to the assumption that appears to underlie the recommendations of a subcommittee of the Swedish Public Transport Association current demand incentives appear to be ineffective. This suggests that a revision of the recommendations for the design of public transport contracts may be called for.

  • 174.
    Ridderstedt, Ivan
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vilka reser med kollektivtrafik i lands- och glesbygd?: demografi och resmönster2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish government has commissioned VTI to study and assess innovative and efficient solutions for public transport in rural areas. To be successful in this task, it is essential with comprehensive knowledge on how the Swedish rural population travels, especially on the demographics and traveling patterns of today’s users of public transportation. This should also be of great interest for policy makers. Political goals linked to accessibility and environmental issues have contributed to an intensified discussion on how to improve public transport in rural areas whilst also considering the ever-present budget constraints. Arguably, improved knowledge on present traveling patterns enhances the possibilities of finding effective and economically sound solutions.

    Previous Swedish studies have described the general travel patterns and the distribution between transport modes, but they have not gone into depth on how public transport is used in rural areas and by whom. Moreover, these studies have usually applied a municipality based definition of rural areas which is likely to cause significant noise in the statistics due to its roughness. There are often several towns and urban areas even within dominantly rural municipalities, and there may be areas of rural character in more densely populated municipalities. Altogether, there is a need for a new study of the national traveling statistics with:

     focus on public transport in rural areas

     greater precision in how statistics from the national travel habit survey is linked to the countryside.

  • 175.
    Smith, Andrew
    et al.
    University of Leeds.
    Iwnicki, Simon
    University of Huddersfield.
    Kaushal, Aniruddha
    University of Huddersfield.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Wheat, Phill
    University of Leeds.
    Estimating the relative cost of track damage mechanisms: combining economic and engineering approaches2017In: Proceedings of the Institution of mechanical engineers. Part F, journal of rail and rapid transit, ISSN 0954-4097, E-ISSN 2041-3017, Vol. 231, no 5, p. 620-636Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper proposes a new, two-stage methodology to estimate the relative marginal cost of different types of vehicles running on the rail infrastructure. This information is important particularly where the infrastructure managers wish to differentiate the track access charges by vehicle type for the purpose of incentivizing the development and use of more track-friendly vehicles.

    EU legislation requires that the European infrastructure managers set the access charges based on the incremental (marginal) cost of the running trains on their networks. The novelty of the approach derives from the combination of: (1) engineering simulation methods that estimate the track damage caused by the rail vehicles; and (2) econometric methods that estimate the relationship between the actual maintenance costs and the different damage mechanisms. This two-stage approach fills an important gap in the literature, given the limitations of the existing single-stage engineering or econometric approaches in obtaining the relative marginal costs for different types of damage.

    The authors demonstrate the feasibility of the method using 45 track sections from Sweden, for which the data on maintenance costs are available together with relevant track and vehicle data for 2012 (supplied by the Swedish Transport Administration). The authors demonstrate the feasibility of producing summary, section-level damage measures for the three damage mechanisms (wear, rolling contact fatigue, and track settlement), which can be taken forward to the second stage. The econometric results of the second stage indicate that it is possible to obtain sensible relationships between cost and the different damage types, and thus produce relative marginal costs by the damage mechanism and in turn the vehicle type. Based on this feasibility study, tracksettlement has been found to be the most expensive (in terms of maintenance cost) of the three mechanisms, followed by the rolling contact fatigue and then the wear. Future applications should focus on larger datasets in order to produce the required degree of precision on the estimation of the marginal cost.

  • 176.
    Smith, Andrew S. J.
    et al.
    University of Leeds.
    Kaushal, Aniruddha
    University of Huddersfield.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Iwnicki, Simon
    University of Huddersfield.
    Wheat, Phill
    University of Leeds.
    Estimating the damage and marginal cost of different vehicle types on rail infrastructure: Combining economic and engineering approaches2015In: Stephenson Conference Research for Railways 2015, Institution of Mechanical Engineers , 2015, p. 265-274Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    EU legislation requires that European infrastructure managers set access charges based on the marginal cost of running trains on their networks. Two methods have been used in the literature for this purpose. Top-down methods relate actual costs to traffic volumes. Bottom-up methods use engineering models to simulate damage and then translate damage into costs based on assumptions about interventions and their unit costs. Whilst top down methods produce sensible results for marginal cost overall, they have struggled to differentiate between traffic types. The challenge for bottom-up approaches is how to translate damage into cost, with numerous assumptions being required which may be invalid. This paper proposes a new, two stage approach to estimating the marginal cost of rail infrastructure usage. The first stage uses engineering models to simulate damage caused by vehicles on the network. The second stage seeks to establish a statistical relationship between actual costs and damage. It is thus possible to convert damage estimates into costs using actual cost data, rather than through a set of potentially invalid assumptions as in previous approaches. Only the first stage is implemented in this paper. We show that it possible to produce total (annualised) damage measures for three damage mechanisms on five actual track sections in Sweden. Once extended, it will be possible to model the relationship between damage and actual costs for the first time; and thus better understand the relative costs of the different damage mechanisms and in turn inform the level and structure of track access charges.

  • 177.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    et al.
    KTH.
    Liu, Chengxi
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    The changes of activity-travel participation across gender, life-cycle, and generations in Sweden over 30 years2018In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, p. 1-26Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study utilised the Swedish national travel survey covering a period of over 30 years. We investigated the long-term trends in activity-travel patterns of individuals in different life-cycle stages and generations using cohort analysis and a path model. The main findings are summarised as follows. The women, including mothers, in younger generations have become more active in out-of-home non-work activities and their trip chaining has become more complex, compared to their male counterparts. While men are still driving more than women, the gap is decreasing in the younger generations. The gender difference among teenagers in terms of out-of-home time use diminishes in younger generations. Teenagers of younger generations spend more of their leisure time inside their homes, possibly due to the rise of online activities and gaming and more time-consuming school trips, the latter attributed to changes in school choice policy. Older adults travel more, possibly due to better paratransit transport service, supported by better health services.

  • 178.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Benefits of noise measure in train commuting suburbs: a comparison of Swedish guidelines and WHO recommendations2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, we compare different valuation functions for a noise abatement measure in an exploitive train commuting suburb in Sweden. The benefits are estimated with different functions focusing on Swedish guidelines and recent WHO recommendations. The results show that the willingness-to-pay-based estimates of the Swedish guidelines are much lower than the estimates based on WHO guidelines. The main reason for the higher benefit estimates with WHO recommendations is the discontinuous valuation function that leaps from 0 to about 5000 SEK at 49 dB, whereas the Swedish guidelines does not include any corresponding discontinuity in its valuation function. Furthermore, the WHO recommendations are sensitive to night exposure as the cost of sleep disturbance is dominating. These different results of the monetary benefits illustrate the importance of including only established impact functions and valuation functions, and carefully apply them when noise-abatement benefits are calculated.

  • 179.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Algers, Staffan
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Willingness to accept commuting time within the household: stated preference evidence2014In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, Vol. 43, no 2, p. 219-241Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, stated preference data is used to derive estimated values of commuting time (VOCT). Both spouses in two-earner households are individually making trade-offs between commuting time and wage; both with regard to their own commuting time and wage only, as well as when both their own commuting time and wage and their spouse’s commuting time and wage are simultaneously changed. Thus, we are able to compare how male spouses and female spouses value each other’s commuting time.

    When only ones own commuting time and wage are attributes, the empirical results show that the estimated VOCT is plausible with a tendency towards high values compared to other studies, and that VOCT does not differ significantly between men and women. When decisions affecting commuting time and wage of both spouses are analyzed, both spouses value the commuting time of the wife highest. Further analysis show that this result is driven by households where the man has the highest income. If VOCT were to be gender specific in policy implications, the value might be higher for women than for men in two-earner households.

  • 180.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Värdering av komfort och minskning av trängsel i kollektivtrafiken: en sammanfattning2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report is a Swedish summary of: Björklund, G. & Swärdh, J-E. (2015). Valuing in-vehicle comfort and crowding reduction in public transport. CTS Working Paper 2015:12. http://swopec.hhs.se/ctswps/abs/ctswps2015_012.htm

    The purpose of the present study is to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for comfort, i.e. to get a seat, and crowding reduction on board local public transport in Sweden, including the modes metro, tram, commuter train, and local bus. We use data from a stated preference-study conducted in the three largest urban areas of Sweden. Respondents were recruited both during a trip and from a web panel. The stated preference-questions consisted of four attributes: travel cost, travel time, seating or standing during the trip, and crowding level. Crowding level was illustrated by pictures showing different number of standing travelers per square meter

  • 181.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Genell, Anders
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Estimation of the marginal cost for road noise and rail noise2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study is to estimate the marginal cost of road noise and rail noise in Sweden. We use the impact pathway approach (IPA) where traffic noise exposure implies an impact on individuals, which in turn is related to monetary valuation of these outcomes.

    Our data consists of noise calculations and number of exposed individuals at different noise levels. We further use monetary valuations of noise disturbances based on property market differentials. Finally, impact functions of negative health outcomes due to noise exposure, and monetary valuations of these negative health outcomes, are used.

    The empirical results show that the marginal costs of traffic noise are highly dependent on the number of exposed individuals and the vehicle type. The overall conclusion is thus that differentiation of the marginal costs is essential, as the noise exposure varies strongly with the population density, and that different vehicle types contribute very differently to the noise emissions. Furthermore, road noise marginal costs are positively influenced by the speed limit and the traffic volume. Nevertheless, the sensitivity with respect to traffic volume is not very substantial. For rail noise marginal costs, there is no effect of traffic volume on the estimated marginal cost.

    In addition, the marginal costs for road noise are estimated separately for different times of the day. These results show that day times have the lowest marginal costs despite the largest traffic volume. Highest marginal costs are mostly estimated for evening but also in some calculations for night time. Sleep disturbances may not be captured in our analysis however, but a sensitivity analysis, including a separate function for sleep disturbance, shows that night time marginal costs are consistently the highest.

  • 182.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Principdiskussion kring LCC-kalkyler för väginvesteringar2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In the current study, we analyze how the Swedish Transport Administration (STA) should involve LCC analysis in their activities regarding road investments. The basis for the study is the LCC analysis and its similarities and differences compared to cost-benefit analysis (CBA), where the latter for a long time has been an important part of STA’s decision basis for infrastructure measures.

    We have made three important observations in our analysis. First, a generic observation is that LCC analysis should be used as a complement to CBA but preferably on a more detailed level to choose between different technical solutions. This implies that LCC analysis may, and should, be treated as a decision basis to conduct measures with a given operational function in an efficient way.

    Furthermore, another observation is the risk for not conducting the efficient amount of maintenance, partly due to the lack of resources, but also since the maintenance measures and infrastructureinvestment measures are based on different, politically decided, budget constraints. Also, the budget process within the organization makes it difficult to optimize for the complete life cycle. Both these issues are organizational, that only can be solved on the governmental level or within STA with directions regarding the investment measures to conduct and which decision basis to rely on.

    In addition, we have observed methodological differences between LCC analysis and CBA considering the road-user costs in connection to disturbances of planned road maintenance. Our view is that these costs should be included in an LCC analysis and our analyze confirm the observation of Eriksson and Edelman (2014), namely that a relatively high traffic volume leads to that measures with a small maintenance requirement in the future in general will have a lower life cycle cost.

    Finally, our recommendation is that LCC analysis has an important role within STA when aiming for efficient design of infrastructure measures. However, it is of importance to develop the LCC methods and, especially, eliminate the organizational barriers for implementing LCC as a way for efficient measures

  • 183.
    Takman, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Andersson-Sköld, Yvonne
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Johansson, Jessica
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Hannele
    Energikontor Sydost.
    Uhlin, Lovisa
    Regional utveckling Örebro län.
    Kantelius, Åslög
    Region Jönköpings län.
    Biogas för tunga lastbilstransporter: barriärer och möjligheter2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report presents an in-depth study of barriers and opportunities regarding the commercialization of biogas, and particularly liquified biogas (LBG), for heavy trucks on a larger scale and how these challenges can be overcome. In the study we also identify key actors and other stakeholders in Sweden as well as under what circumstances they dare to invest in the biogas technology. To study the research questions a literature review as well as interviews and workshops with important actors were conducted. The results indicate that biogas is a fuel option that can contribute to reduced carbon dioxide emissions. Energy security and a circular economy are mentioned as important driving forces. The fact that new LBG trucks are now available on the market and that new policy instruments have come into force are also seen as opportunities. The absence of long-term, stable policy instruments and regulations, as well as high prices and costs for production, vehicles and gas are considered to be the main obstacles. Other barriers are lack of knowledge in the area, and that today’s renewable fuels are competing instead of complementing each other.

    There is a need for increased long-term regulatory frameworks that will benefit the most sustainable renewable fuels available today. It is also necessary to make sure that Swedish policies are harmonized with other policies in EU in a better way than the policies that have existed until today. There is also a need for more support systems, for example systems that favor the production of biogas, investment support for the vehicles that best fulfil climate and other environmental objectives, as well as support that includes the secondary market for the LBG vehicles to develop the market towards a more environmentally sustainable transport sector. Information efforts are also needed to inform about biogas in relation to other fuel options for heavy trucks, as well as information about that, and where, LBG fuel stations exist. Furthermore, demonstration projects that show vehicles on the roads as well as contribute to infrastructure development could help spread knowledge and demonstrate that the technology works and by doing so contributing to the development of the LBG market.

  • 184.
    Varela, Juan Manuel Lorenzo
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. KTH.
    Daly, Andrew
    ITS.
    Quantifying errors in travel time and cost by latent variables2018In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 117, p. 520-541Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Travel time and travel cost are key variables for explaining travel behaviour and deriving the value of time. However, a general problem in transport modelling is that these variables are subject to measurement errors in transport network models. In this paper we show how to assess the magnitude of the measurement errors in travel time and travel cost by latent variables, in a large-scale travel demand model. The case study for Stockholm commuters shows that assuming multiplicative measurement errors for travel time and cost result in a better fit than additive ones, and that parameter estimates of the choice model are impacted by some of the key modelling assumptions. Moreover, our results suggest that measurement errors in our dataset are larger for the travel cost than for the travel time, and that measurement errors are larger in self-reported travel time than software-calculated travel time for car-driver and car-passenger, and of similar magnitude for public transport. Among self-reported travel times, car-passenger has the largest errors, followed by car-driver and public transport, and for the software-calculated times, public transport exhibits larger errors than car. These errors, if not corrected, lead to biases in measures derived from the models, such as elasticities and values of travel time.

  • 185.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Organization of pilot and icebreaking in the Nordic countries and update of the external costs of sea transports in Sweden: a report in SAMKOST 32018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish government has commissioned VTI to review current knowledge of the external costs for all modes of transport. This report is the third part of the government commission (Samkost 3), it addresses sea transports where the access to data and the knowledge level is generally lower than for the land-based modes. One finding in the government commission 2016 (Samkost 2) was that the possibilities to apply the external cost estimates for pricing are rather limited in the existing organizational structures. This report comprises two parts. Part 1 addresses the organization models of piloting and icebreaking in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Nordic countries have chosen different organization models to provide these services that can influence the capacity and service levels, the cost structure, the cost effectiveness and the pricing of the services. Part 2 updates the costs of pilot and icebreaking services and the external costs related to traffic safety, greenhouse gases and air pollution caused by sea transports in Swedish waters from Samkost 2 (2014 prices and valuations) to Samkost 3 (2017 prices and valuations). The calculated total external costs per year are lower in Samkost 3 than in Samkost 2: about five percent in the low alternative and about ten percent in the high alternative. This implies that the internalization is about 100 percent which is higher than in Samkost 2. The external costs caused by the transports in international waters are probably are internalized to a low extent and national and international policies are needed to reach e.g. national and international climate objectives.

  • 186.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Sammanfattning av resultat, erfarenheter och lärdomar från ELVIS demonstrationsprojekt för längre och tyngre tåg2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The ELVIS demonstration project aims to analyze how rail freight transports can be performed more efficient. Hypotheses are that the transport efficiency can be improved by using longer and heavier freight trains and by implementing energy-related measures, and that there may be additional benefits for the firms and the whole society such as better utilization of the track capacity. This report summarizes the results and experiences from the three previously produced sub reports. The first sub report contains an inventory of the previously conducted investigations and trials with longer and heavier freight trains. The second sub report describes the current conditions and evaluates the use of a 730 meter long train (instead of the current maximum train length of 630 meters) for the transport of paper rolls about 900 kilometers from Gävle to Malmö. The third sub report refers to timber transports on rail. The experiment with higher axle loads could not be implemented as planned. Instead it was tested how the electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer can be reduced by using longer trains (18 instead of 16 cars) on the about 200 kilometres long route between Mora and Gävle. In terms of both energy efficiency and overall efficiency for the rail transports researchers, companies and the Transport Administration concluded that there is a big need to secure the quality secure the data that is produced. This applies to information about electricity consumption and the factors that possibly affect electricity consumption per (gross) tonne-kilometer, i.e. the train length, the gross weight of the train, number of stops, speed, the driving style, topography and so on. The ELVIS project initiated a follow-up project that aims to compile and analyze the Transport Administration’s various databases in this area. The project will provide answers to questions such as what data the various databases contain, how data is collected and stored, for what purpose the data is collected and used, the extent to which data is quality assured and how data from different databases can be linked together.

  • 187.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Sjöfartens policyrelevanta samhällsekonomiska marginalkostnader2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report aims to identify and as far as possible, quantify the policy-relevant (external) short-term marginal social costs of the use of the national maritime infrastructure and the external costs that maritime transport cause. The (internal) marginal costs of personnel, fuel, depreciation, etcetera are not calculated.

    The marginal social costs related to the maintenance of the fairways and congestion are assessed to be negligible and knowledge regarding noise and other marine external costs are considered too limited to be able to quantify the relevant marginal social costs. The marginal social costs related to piloting and icebreaking are based on data from the Maritime Administration for 2014 (piloting), and 2010−2015 (icebreaking). The marginal social costs of air pollution (at the regional level) caused by passenger and cargo ships as well as pilot boats and icebreakers, have been derived by calculating the fuel consumption and the amount of emissions and applying the Impact Pathway approach. The costs of greenhouse gases are, as for the other modes of transport, based on Carlén (2014). The calculation of the marginal social costs of accidents is based on the Swedish Transport Agency’s accident database for the period 1985−2014 and the monetary values of deaths and injuries recommended by the Swedish CBA guidelines. Different needs for development are identified.

    The Maritime Administration’s revenues of pilot fees and fairway dues in 2014, cover 76 percent, respective 90 percent of the calculated marginal social costs of pilotage, icebreaking, accidents, air pollution (at the regional level) and greenhouse gases. We see a need to study in detail how the cost estimates can be used to make the policy measures for maritime transport and in the entire transport sector more efficient.

  • 188.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Värdering av tidsvinster och högre tillförlitlighet för godstransporter2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The working group for cost benefit analysis (CBA) guidelines in transport (ASEK 5) has asked VTI to propose research in the field of freight values of time and reliability in the longer term and to suggest value of time and reliability in the short term. This report relates to the longer view, the short-term recommendations are reported in Annex 1. The project has been carried out by literature studies and through interviews with representatives for public agencies and researchers in Sweden and elsewhere.

  • 189.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Why do CO2 Emissions from Heavy Road Freight Transport Increase in Spite of Higher Fuel Prices?2016In: Energy and Environment, Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, 2016, p. 259-276Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The chapter analyzes why CO2 emissions from heavy road freight transports increase in spite of higher fuel prices. Swedish time series data for 1990-2011 are analyzed with the help of indicators. The logistic efficiency and the energy efficiency improved, especially in the 1990s due to the allowance of heavier trucks. Since then, no major efficiency gains have been realized. Potentially cost-effective technologies exist but technical, institutional and financial barriers reduce the incentives for the transport firms to implement these.

    Split incentives caused by contract structures or ownership patterns can impede the employment of the technologies. If fuel savings are realized, rebound effects can appear that cancel out improved energy efficiency. Deeper knowledge of the impacts of policy measures is required in order to understand why CO2 emissions increase despite increased fuel prices. A better understanding of the model simplifications in the Swedish national model Samgods is also needed, as well as an analysis of what is required to better mirror the contracts that exist.

  • 190.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Why do CO2 emissions from heavy road freight transports increase in spite of higher fuel prices?2014Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper analyses why CO2 emissions from heavy road freight transports increase in spite of higher fuel prices. Swedish time series data for 1990-2011 are analyzed with help of indicators. The logistic efficiency and the energy efficiency improved, especially in the 1990-ties due to the allowance of heavier trucks. Since then no major efficiency gains have been realized. Potentially cost effective technologies exist but technical, institutional and financial barriers reduce the incentives for the transport firms to imply these. Split incentives caused by contract structures or ownership patterns can impede the employment of the technologies. If fuel savings are realized rebound effects can appear that cancel out improved energy efficiency. Deeper knowledge of the impacts of policy measures is required in order to understand why CO2 emissions increase despite increased fuel prices. A better understanding of the model simplifications in the Swedish national model Samgods is also needed as well as an analysis of what is required to better mirror the contracts that we observe in reality.

  • 191.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Carlson, Annelie
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Landergren, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Wikberg, Åsa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Elanvändning för längre och tyngre tåg: sammanfattning av resultat, erfarenheter och lärdomar från ELVIS-demonstrationsprojekt2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The ELVIS demonstration project aims to analyze how rail freight transports can be performed more efficiently. Hypotheses are that the transport efficiency can be improved by using longer and heavier freight trains and by implementing energy-related measures, and that there may be additional benefits for the companies and the society such as better utilization of the track capacity. This report summarizes the results and experiences from the three previously produced sub reports. In terms of both energy efficiency and overall efficiency for the rail transports researchers, companies and the Transport Administration concluded that there is a big need to secure the quality of the data that is produced. This applies to information about electricity consumption and the factors that possibly affect electricity consumption per (gross) tonne-kilometer, i.e. the train length, the gross weight of the train, number of stops, speed, the driving style, topography etc. The ELVIS project initiated a follow-up project that aims to compile and analyze the Transport Administration’s various databases in this area. The project will provide answers to questions such as what data the various databases contain, how data is collected and stored, for what purpose the data is collected and used, the extent to which data is quality assured and how data from different databases can be linked together. In the context of three case studies, Gävle-Malmö, Holmsund–Skövde och Mora-Gävle, several experiments with different explanatory variables were conducted. With regard to the different conditions and priorities in the case studies and experiments, it is difficult to make direct comparisons. Some general conclusions with respect to the use of electricity can be drawn, for example: • The trains’ weight (in tonnes) and length (number of wagons) affect the electricity consumption per tonne-kilometer in the trials where this is tested. • In some trials there is evidence that there are economies of scale, i.e. that the electricity consumption per tonne-kilometer decreases with increased train weight. • The train driver's driving style (feed back of electricity etc.) affects the energy consumption. This can be seen clearly in the trial Mora–Gävle.

  • 192.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Sowa, Victor
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Översiktlig strukturanalys för sjötransporter2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of the report is to analyze trends and specific events that could affect trade flows, the transport system, the sea transport volumes and the fee revenues of the Swedish Maritime Administration in 2020. In three parts the researchers have described the developments that affect the revenues of the Swedish Maritime Administration. The first part discusses present trade flows and how these are expected to develop, the second part addresses the developments in the transport system and the third part the past development of loaded and unloaded tonnes goods and the number of calls in the Swedish ports and their expected continued development. Loaded and unloaded tonnes and number of calls are the basis for the fairway dues and pilot fees levied by the Swedish Maritime Administration and therefore linked to their revenues. The researchers reviewed the literature, compiled and analyzed historical data, carried out interviews with shippers from different industries and applied a simple statistical approach to forecast the development up to 2020. Both the interviews and the statistical approach suggest that the future of freight volumes in the Swedish ports will be roughly constant with current levels or slightly increasing. The number of calls in the ports is expected to decline to 2020.

  • 193.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Effects of Longer Lorries and Freight Trains in an International Corridor between Sweden and Germany2014In: Transportation Research Procedia, ISSN 2324-9935, E-ISSN 2352-1465, Vol. 1, no 1, p. 188-196Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The effects of enabling the use of longer road vehicle combinations and/or longer trains in an intermodal freight corridor that extends from central Sweden to the Ruhr area in Germany are studied. Transports are designed based on the smallest vehicle dimensions in the transport chain, currently 18.75 m for trucks in Germany and 650 m for trains in Sweden. The question that is investigated is whether/how the transport system can be improved by using longer vehicles for road transports, rail transports or both. Ten scenarios are simulated with the help of the Swedish national freight model, Samgods. In Scenario Road 1 it is assumed that 25.25 m-long trucks are allowed on the entire road corridor (that also includes a ferry link). It is further assumed that the longer trucks can access the road corridor in Germany via terminals. In Scenario Rail 1, 750 m-long freight trains can be operated in the rail corridor that goes via Jutland/Denmark. In the combined Road 1 + Rail 1 scenario it is assumed that both longer trucks and longer trains can be used in the corridor. The effects on the freight flows, modal split, logistics costs and CO2 emissions are studied and rough socioeconomic analyses are carried out.

  • 194.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Lindé, Tobias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Cullinane, Kevin
    Göteborgs Universitet.
    How to achieve less emissions from freight transport in Sweden2019In: Maritime Business Review, ISSN 2397-3757, E-ISSN 1548-1921, Vol. 4, no 1, p. 4-15Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    For the case of Sweden, this paper aims to determine how a range of different infrastructure fees and taxes influences modal split, port throughputs, air emissions, societal costs of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution, as well as logistics costs.

    The Swedish national freight model is used to simulate a range of different proposed infrastructure fees, one by one and in combination. The volume of emissions of CO2-equivalents, NOx, SOx and PM under the different scenarios is calculated in both volume and monetary terms, by applying national emission factors and EU values for external costs.

    Road user fees are calculated to have the largest impact on the modal split, GHG emissions and air pollution. The impact increases slightly when road user fees are combined with higher fees for sea and rail and/or gate fees in all Swedish ports. The imposition of gate fees over €30 per truck in all ports leads to shifts in cargo to land-based modes and to ports outside Sweden. The logistics costs in Sweden are found to be three to ten times higher than the benefits of reduced GHG emissions and air pollution, although other benefits to society need to be considered as well.

    The results can be used as basis for policy-making. They illustrate the environmental impacts of the fees and taxes one by one and in combination and to what extent these reinforce each other and should be co-ordinated.

    The outcomes are relevant to national and international policymakers and authorities, as well as port authorities, shippers and transport companies who need to determine unilateral strategies on how to reduce GHG emissions and air pollution, without undermining their wider business objectives.

  • 195.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Mellin, Anna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK. Havs- och vattenmyndigheten.
    Effects of more stringent sulphur requirements for sea transports2015In: Transportation Research Procedia: Current practices in transport: appraisal methods, policies and models – 42nd European Transport Conference Selected Proceedings, Elsevier, 2015, Vol. 8, p. 125-135Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2008 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided on more stringent requirements from 2015 for airborne emissions of sulphur dioxide from sea transports in the sulphur emission control areas (SECA). The European SECA comprises the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the English Channel. The paper contains an overview of the European studies that have been carried out to investigate the impacts of IMO's more stringent sulphur requirements. All studies were carried out after IMO's decision in 2008 (which means that the decision was taken based on other reasons). The studies focus on different aspects but all of them estimate how IMO's stricter requirements will affect the sea transport costs. The Swedish impact studies are described in particular: in the 2009 study the national transport model Samgods was used and in 2013 both the Samgods model and the agent-based simulation model Tapas. Impacts on the choice of transport chains, routes and ports are calculated. The results indicate that shippers to some extent can reduce the increase in transport cost by transferring flows from the Swedish east coast to the Swedish south and west coast, the Norwegian coast and the land-based route via Denmark. Modal back shifts from sea to rail and road occur. These shifts are modest, especially if higher prices for diesel and higher rail track fees are assumed on top of more stringent sulphur requirements in the SECA. One important question is to what extent the increases in costs that are due to more stringent requirements can be compensated for by improved efficiency of the transports, such as the exploitation of economies of scale.

  • 196.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Westin, Jonas
    CERUM, Umeå universitet.
    Validering av sjötransporter i Samgodsmodellen: version 1.12016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The project analyzes how well sea transports are modelled in the Swedish national freight model system Samgods. This first report comprises a short description of Version 1.1 of the model including calibration, a comparison of model results and statistics in 2012 as well as sensitivity analyses to test how the model reacts to different types of interventions. The second report, VTI notat 31-2016 Modeling of loops in maritime transport Case Study of SCA's RoRo operations in the Baltic Sea, examines how big the problem is that Samgods does not model loops (vessels calling more than two ports during a trip).

    The existing Samgods model is a deterministic cost-minimizing model. It consists of several partially interacting modules: a) base matrices that describe the demand for 32 commodities, b) the logistics model that contains submodules for the choice of consignment size, consolidation of shipments from different senders, choice of transport chains, treatment of empty transports etc. and c) the rail capacity management tools (RCM) addressing capacity constraints in the Swedish rail network.

    The calibration of the model focuses on tonne-km and modal split in Sweden as well as different regional distributions of the tonnes transported, but the distribution over vessels types is not taken into account. Our analyses show that the model calculates about four times as many tonnes transported by container vessels than the statistics. We see a need to check if the input data used for the modelling of container transports (vs conventional transports) is realistic.

    Throughput (loaded/unloaded tonnes goods) was calibrated for 14 coastal sections and twelve aggregated commodities. However, we believe that the throughput per port should be a calibration target. The distribution of the gods on the ports is crucial in analyses of investments in fairways, locks etc.

    Furthermore, the distribution of the port calls vessel categories and -size classes was not a calibration target. We show that Samgods model overestimates the number of calls to all freight vessels with about 50 percent. The number of container vessel calls is about five times higher as in the Swedish Maritime Administration’s database. The number of roro-vessel calls is about two times as high. The conformity for the other vessels is very good.

  • 197.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Landergren, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Godstransportmarknaden på järnväg: underlag till utredningen om järnvägens organisation2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report aims to describe how the Swedish rail freight market works and how it might develop in the future. It is written as background material for the Committee Reviewing the Organisation of the Railway Sector. This report follows up on the questions and statistics presented in VTI rapport 741, (Vierth, Follow-up study of the deregulation of rail freight traffic, 2012) but it is in all relevant aspects newly written. It has been 20 years since the rail freight market was deregulated. This report argues that there is a relatively well-functioning competition in the market but some problems remain. Green Cargo is still the dominant player but with steadily falling market shares. The capacity in the rail system is a substantial obstacle if traffic is to increase. It is good that track fees are starting to be used as a policy instrument. Track fees needs to increase, especially where rail capacity is insufficient. The process for applying for train slots is time consuming and bureaucratic. A more modern application process could increase capacity and make the rail system more flexible. The reliability in the rail system is low, especially for freight trains. A better reliability would improve the competitiveness of the rail system in relations to the other modes of transport.

  • 198.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Landergren, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Andersson, Matts
    WSP.
    Brundell-Freij, Karin
    WSP.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Uppföljning av basprognoser för person- och godstransporter publicerade mellan 1975 och 20092016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Trafikverket och dess föregångare tar fram basprognoser för det framtida trafik och -transportarbetet i Sverige. På nationell nivå används transportprognoserna som stöd i den långsiktiga infrastrukturplaneringen, bland annat för bedömning av investeringsbehov och de samhällsekonomiska konsekvenserna av olika åtgärder. På regional och lokal nivå används trafikprognoser för kapacitetsanalyser och dimensionering av infrastrukturprojekt. Prognoserna används även som underlag för Sveriges klimatrapportering till EU, till styrmedelsanalyser etc. Detta projekt utvärderar de långsiktiga prognoser för person- och godstransporter som Trafikverkets föregångare har tagit fram. Hur väl har de förutspått utvecklingen av transportarbetet och hur kan eventuella avvikelser förklaras? Uppföljningen ska fånga transporternas utveckling till följd av den ekonomiska och demografiska utvecklingen samt beslutade infrastrukturinvesteringar och styrmedel. Inom ramen för detta projekt analyseras de officiella prognoserna som har tagits fram under perioden 1975 – 2009: sju persontransportprognoser och åtta godstransportprognoser. För dessa förutsägelser har prognosåret redan inträffat eller kommer att inträffa senast 2020. Nyare prognoser är inte medtagna eftersom antalet gångna år de kan utvärderas mot är för få.

  • 199.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Landergren, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Sowa, Victor
    Svenska sjöolyckors samhällsekonomiska kostnader: värdering av fartygsskador, oljeutsläpp och personskador2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    For road transport there is a well-developed literature and practice regarding the valuation of accidents. In the maritime sector less progress has been made. This report adds valuations for three types of maritime accidents: injuries including casualties, vessel damages and oil spills. For injuries and causalities there are well-established valuations for land transports administrated by Arbetsgruppen för samhällsekonomiska kalkyl- och arbetsmetoder inom transportområdet (a working-group addressing issues on the application of CBA in the transport sector) (ASEK).

    We recommend that these valuations should also explicitly apply to the maritime sector. Using this valuation, the 103 fatalities in maritime accidents since 1985 constitutes a cost of 2.3 billion SEK. The cost for 430 injuries adds to that. The existing literature concerning valuation of vessel damages is inadequate. This study takes the research field forward by using insurance data to valuate vessel damages. With data from the insurance firm The Swedish Club an econometric analysis is preformed which shows how the cost of an accident depends on the type of accident, the size and the age of the vessel.

    The analysis show that the type of ship has no significant impact when the other variables have been controlled for. There are 3,313 accidents involving vessel damages in The Swedish Transport Agency’s database. The vessels in The Swedish Club’s database are on average substantially larger than the vessels in The Swedish Transport Agency’s database. Just 3 percent of the vessels in The Swedish Clubs database has a gross tonnage below 3,000, compared with 77 percent in The Swedish Transport Agency’s database. As a consequence, the results from the econometrics model should not be applied to accidents involving ships with a gross tonnage below 3,000. For smaller ships additional studies are needed with data from ordinary insurance firms.

  • 200.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Landergren, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Österström, Johannes
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    En granskning av samhällsekonomiska kalkyler för farledsinvesteringar: investeringar i farleder till Göteborgs hamn, Norrköpings hamn och Gävle hamn2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    On behalf of the Swedish National Audit Office, VTI has analyzed the cost benefit analyses (CBAs) of three fairway investments. The CBAs for the fairways into the ports of Gothenburg, Norrköping and Gävle have been analyzed from a comparative and principal perspective. For the fairway investments to the port of Gothenburg, an ex post analysis has been performed by VTI as well.

    The results of the comparative studies show that there are a number of principal problems in the three CBAs. There is a lack of analysis of why it is necessary to make these investments instead of doing something more limited. The investments are motivated from a regional perspective rather than discussing and showing the overarching benefit for society. Moreover, we conclude that the methods used vary a lot between the three CBAs and that the discussions about central assumptions are lacking, i.e. concerning the development of the ship sizes.

    The ex post-analysis for the fairway investment in Gothenburg shows that the benefits from reduced transshipment costs were exaggerated in the original analysis. The total benefit in our ex post analysis is 3.3 billion SEK compared to the 8.3 billion SEK in the original analysis. At the same time, the investment costs were reduced to 0.9 billion SEK compared to the expected 2.34 billion SEK. Altogether, this means that the net present value ratio changes to 2.7 in our ex post analysis compared to the original 2.6.

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