Under-priced street parking is widely considered to be a great urban policy failure and is partly what motivated Stockholm to expand its parking zones for both visitors and residents from 2016 onwards. In this paper we use a unique natural experiment to study the effect of priced parking on property prices in Stockholm suburbs. We find that apartment prices were negatively affected by the unexpected appeal and subsequent revocation of parking fees. This finding is interpreted to mean that the introduction of priced parking yielded benefits to apartment residents in the studied areas, which were capitalized in the price of housing. Based on our estimated results, we find that the implied benefits to residents amounted to the equivalent of approximately €2.5 per day. We investigate whether apartments were differentially impacted based on their distance to public transit but find no strong evidence to support this hypothesis. For single-family homes, no conclusions can be drawn as the standard errors are large in relation to the estimated effects.

Based on an assignment by the Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA), this report analyzes the sensitivity of freight transport on Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren regarding changes in fees and dues. The background for this study is that the SMA in 2018 introduced a new way of charging for fairway dues and pilot fees, and that the SMA in order to support a possible future revision of the charging system, needs more comprehensive knowledge regarding the development of traffic on Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren over time. This report studies the period 2016 to 2019. In this assignment, the SMA also requested answers to a series of specific questions. The answers to the following questions are given in the report: a) How much of the total transport cost for vessel trips calling at ports in Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren are made up of fees and dues levied by the SMA?, b) How are the charges distributed between fairway dues and pilot fees?, c) How has vessel traffic on Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren changed between 2016 and 2019?, d) Based on the changed system of charging for dues and fees during the period, has there been a modal shift from sea to land-based transport?, e) What does the composition of cargoes transported by sea look like, and has it changed over time?, f) What is the price elasticity with regard to shifting various types of goods to other modes of transport?, g) How have transport costs changed during the period for land-based transport compared to maritime transport? The following methods are applied: analysis of SMA’s revenues from fairway dues and pilot fees and Transport Analysis statistics Shipping goods, a literature review and cost calculations for some cases.

There are reasons to question previous research literature regarding estimates of how much port call optimization can contribute to energy efficiency. Specifically, the potential of Virtual Arrival (VA), i.e., a system where ships would be able to reduce their speed in advance of a port call, in response to a known delay, in order to reduce or completely eliminate waiting time at anchor. In this study, we seek to estimate the maximum technically feasible energy efficiency potential of VA for Swedish tramp shipping. Operational, business, contractual or other circumstances may lead to portions of the technical potential not being considered realizable. We also seek to estimate the realizable energy efficiency potential of VA. 

The estimate of the technical potential is based on empirical data from 2019. Traffic data from the AIS, ship data from IHS Markit, port call data from the Swedish Maritime Administration and Eurostat’s distance matrix for ports have been used for the estimate of the maximum technically feasible energy efficiency potential. The calculation models that underpin the estimates are based on accepted models and are calibrated with better substantiated assumptions than in previous studies. The estimate of the realizable potential is based on a Delphi study in which experts from the stakeholder categories shipowners, ports and shipbrokers have been included. 

The results show that previous estimates overestimate the potential of VA for energy efficiency in the Swedish tramp shipping. The maximum technically feasible energy efficiency potential is significantly lower than previously believed. This is due to several factors such as the fact that a relatively small percentage of the port calls (approx. 15%) have any waiting time at anchor at all and of these a large percentage (approx. 40%) are already sailing so slowly that reduced sailing speed would not lead to a reduction in fuel consumption. Also, model assumptions in previous studies have tended to mechanically overestimate the technical potential. The Delphi study shows that approx. one fifth of the maximum technically feasible energy efficiency potential can be considered realizable in a Swedish context.

A well-developed port infrastructure is a prerequisite for Swedish industry as well as for a sustainable transport system. Despite this, the knowledge of how the port infrastructure satisfies society's needs today, and in the future, is underdeveloped. In this pre-study the needs of various stakeholders are mapped, and trends and future transport demand are analyzed in terms of how they may affect Sweden's ports. More specifically, twenty-four interviews have been conducted with ports, manufacturing companies, shipping companies, freight forwarders, terminal operators, port authorities, and municipalities. We have also reviewed the reason for the strong freight development for shipping in the Swedish Transport Administration's forecasts of freight volumes in 2040 by looking at output data to see how these are distributed among different product groups and ports.

For Sweden to achieve the goal of becoming one of the world's first fossil-free welfare countries, a transition to a fossil-free transport system as well as to a circular economy is required. Shipping has the potential to match the needs of an increased circular economy and is an energy-efficient mode of transport. The purpose of the report is to understand how shipping can be used to a greater extent to transport circular products and materials and how the port can create value in the development of circular logistics solutions. The methods used are literature studies, workshops and case studies. 

The report identifies circular products and materials with the potential to move upwards in the waste hierarchy and where it is appropriate to use shipping for transport in the circular logistics system. These include dredged material, soil, mineral waste, wood waste, plastic waste, end-of-life tires, end[1]of-life textiles, sorted and recycled textiles, flat glass, waste oil and fly ash. The role of the port in managing circular materials was studied more specifically for aggregates, dissolving pulp based on recycled textiles, food waste and ethanol. It became clear that the port can create value in the form of storage, consolidation, stuffing and be a logistics node that offers transshipment opportunities between different modes of transport. The port knows the local conditions for efficient logistics arrangements and is central in new stakeholder networks. The report also presents a description of two circular logistics solutions involving shipping that were developed and evaluated during the project. One demonstration of a sea transport with clay. One conceptual evaluation of different logistics arrangement as support for an investment of a sorting machine of flat glass.

Växthusgasutsläppen från inrikes transporter exklusive flyg ska enligt Sveriges klimatmål vara 70 procent lägre år 2030 jämfört med 2010. Av dessa utsläpp står vägtransporter för mer än 90 procent. För att minska transporternas klimatavtryck krävs en kombination av åtgärder som syftar till att i) energieffektivisera fordonsparken, ii) gå över till en större del icke-fossila bränslen och iii) begränsa trafiktillväxten. I den här artikeln ligger fokus på det senare. I tidigare arbeten och utredningar som varit vägledande för Sveriges klimatambitioner på transportområdet har en minskad trafiktillväxt bedömts kunna utgöra en hörnsten i framtidsscenarier för transportsektorns klimatomställning. Frågan om huruvida den historiskt stabila tillväxttrenden i trafikarbete på svenska vägar kan brytas är svår och har inte tillräckligt adresserats. I den här artikeln görs en genomgång av de individuella åtgärdsområden som föreslagits för att minska framtidens person- och godstrafiktillväxt på väg. Syftet är att förstå hur det kan komma sig att dessa scenarier avviker så kraftigt från Trafikverkets basprognos, som med utgångspunkt i dagens beslutade politiska styrmedel förutser en fortsatt stark trafiktillväxt. Sammantaget visar genomgången att vissa av åtgärdsförslagen bygger på osannolika premisser eller överskattade effektsamband, att det är oklart huruvida de aviserade åtgärderna verkligen kan realiseras under tidsperioden som avses och att det föreligger risk för dubbelräkning av åtgärders effekter. Backcasting, det vill säga den typen av omvänt prognosarbete som ligger till grund för de studerade framtidsscenarierna, kan utgöra ett viktigt komplement till mer traditionella prognoser, särskilt när det rör sig om ett förestående trendbrott. Oaktat detta är det viktigt att göra noggranna och verklighetsbaserade bedömningar av föreslagna åtgärders sannolika effekter.

This paper studies the impacts on productivity following an investment in regional high-speed rail in the Mälaren region in Sweden. It uses wage earnings as a measure of productivity and proposes to capture agglomeration effects by measuring changes in effective labour force density induced by the transport improvement across municipalities in the region. This change in effective labour force density is then used as a continuous measure of treatment, in order to estimate the effect of the Svealand line introduction on labour earnings. While the transport improvement had a large impact on the connectivity and commuting patterns in affected municipalities, we find estimates of wage elasticities with respect to agglomeration that are in line with or smaller than average values from previous literature. The productivity effects, estimated over a ten-year time period, are shown to be rather modest and concentrated to the regions whose connectivity to the greater Stockholm area was directly affected. We also find that the main results do not materialize when a much shorter time period is used for analysis, indicating that a rather long adjustment time needs to occur before any effects can be seen.

Despite high ambitions, policies for a modal shift in Europe have largely been unsuccessful. Part of the explanation relates to the inelasticity of freight transport demand. Understanding the demand elasticity of freight transport is important to design and appraise policies for external cost reductions in the transport sector. There have been many studies focused on estimating the elasticity of demand for short-sea shipping, a mode which policy makers have often aimed to strengthen to facilitate a modal shift from road freight. The objective of this review is to build upon the available literature by presenting and comparing estimated elasticities and to demonstrate the state of evidence through the application of two methodological approaches. Our review shows that there is a surprising degree of variation in elasticity estimates, part of which can likely be explained by differing methodological approaches. Applying a deterministic cost-minimising freight transport model and a stochastic multinomial logit approach based on responses from the Swedish Cargo Flow Survey, we demonstrate the inelasticity of Swedish maritime freight flows and provide suggestions for future research and policy discussions. For future studies of maritime transport demand elasticities to arrive at reliable and policy-relevant results, we highlight the need for combined and pluralistic methodological approaches and an increased use of real-world data.

The Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) charges commercial shipping fairway dues and pilot fees. The revenues from these charges account for over 70 percent of the SMA’s total revenues. Every five years, the SMA reviews its charging model. The next upcoming review is due in 2023, at which point a revised charging model is expected to be implemented. Long-term changes to the charging model are expected to be implemented in 2028. VTI, in cooperation with the SMA and the Ports of Sweden, is undertaking the research project “Fairway dues and pilot fees 2028: How to foster competitive and sustainable shipping?”. The purpose of the project is to deliver analyses and results relevant to the decision making regarding short-term changes to the charging model in 2023 and long-term changes in 2028. This report is a partial delivery of the project. 

The purpose of the report is twofold. Firstly, the purpose is to analyze and account for the effects of fairway dues and pilot fees on maritime traffic in Sweden, using previous literature and original empirical analyses of previous fee changes. Secondly, the purpose is to describe the likely consequences of a spectrum of possible future changes to the charging model. This report therefore estimates and presents the likely impacts on different vessel segments following a series of hypothetical fee changes.

The promise of Port Call Optimization (PCO) measures such as Virtual Arrival (VA) for increased fuel efficiency in shipping is emphasized in the literature and professional ranks alike. Despite their envisioned benefits and feasibility, the implementation of such measures has largely remained lacking. Recent studies indicate that the potential of VA on fuel efficiency might be overestimated. In this paper we propose a new approach to estimate the fuel efficiency potential of VA based on traffic data from the Swedish tramp shipping sector. Our results indicate that the feasible fuel efficiency potential of VA is significantly smaller than what has previously been reported with no discernible benefit to large cohorts of voyages. We conclude that further empirical analyses are required for increased accuracy of the estimation of the potential of PCO for increased fuel efficiency in shipping and that more measured approaches in implementation and evaluation of PCO are called for.

The objective of this paper is to provide empirical insights into how shipowners’ fleet deployment decisions are affected by changes in vessel-specific voyage costs. Voyage cost components which are fixed with respect to sailed distance, e.g., port charges or other infrastructure fees, may significantly influence the competitiveness of a maritime transport service, for instance if the level of such costs necessitate a very high degree of capacity utilization. We investigate empirically the effect of charges on the deployment and utilization of vessels in short-sea shipping by using the most recent reform of the Swedish fairway dues system as a natural experiment. Exploiting a stepwise differentiation of fees with respect to size, we utilize a regression discontinuity approach to elicit plausibly causal effects of increased fees on the deployment and utilization of vessels. The results show that increased voyage costs in the form of raised charges lead to affected vessels being deployed on fewer calls but with a slightly higher degree of capacity utilization. Heterogeneity analyses reveal estimates for port calls are larger for small shipowners and for vessels in high-frequency traffic. Overall, the results of the study highlight that charges levied on ships affect the supply structure of short-sea shipping by inducing shipowners to mitigate increased costs through adjusted deployment strategies.

The objective of this paper is to provide empirical insights into how shipowners’ fleet deployment decisions are affected by changes in vessel-specific voyage costs. Voyage cost components which are fixed with respect to sailed distance, e.g., port charges or other infrastructure fees, may significantly influence the competitiveness of a maritime transport service, for instance if the level of such costs necessitate a very high degree of capacity utilization. We investigate empirically the effect of charges on the deployment and utilization of vessels in short-sea shipping by using the most recent reform of the Swedish fairway dues system as a natural experiment. Exploiting a stepwise differentiation of fees with respect to size, we utilize a regression discontinuity approach to elicit plausibly causal effects of increased fees on the deployment and utilization of vessels. The results show that increased voyage costs in the form of raised charges lead to affected vessels being deployed on fewer calls but with a slightly higher degree of capacity utilization. Heterogeneity analyses reveal estimates for port calls are larger for small shipowners and for vessels in high-frequency traffic. Overall, the results of the study highlight that charges levied on ships affect the supply structure of short-sea shipping by inducing shipowners to mitigate increased costs through adjusted deployment strategies.

Despite being located in the periphery of major trade lanes, Norway houses a large shipping sector with a highly international profile. Norway’s regulatory framework for port governance and development conforms mostly to a style of governance with high degrees of autonomy and financial self-sufficiency seen in other northern European countries. However, there are also clear instances of public intervention aimed to minimize the external costs of transport, such as a significant support scheme for investments in shore power. Identified challenges for the Norwegian port system going forward include the issue of how to take advantage of economies of scale while serving a relatively small and regionally dispersed economy and attracting private participation in port operations, where such participation can be deemed beneficial.

The provision of shore power to ships at berth is recognized as an effective measure to reduce the external costs of maritime transport. However, the deployment and uptake of shore power technology is subject to barriers, part of which have to do with insufficient economic incentives for providers and users. Regulatory proposals in the EU have targeted liner shipping segments to be covered by a shore power mandate. There is much less discussion and research focused on other segments of shipping, though these represent a significant share of at-berth emissions. This study uses maritime traffic data and a relatively simple modelling framework to analyse whether public investments in shore power deployment, coupled with added incentives to shipowners, could be socio-economically beneficial. The analysis is focused on maritime traffic in the Swedish port network, but the main findings can likely be generalized beyond this context. We find that investing in (or mandating) the provision of shore power in ports can be socio-economically beneficial also when aimed at segments typically classified as non-liner (or “tramp”). The results do not however indicate that network-wide deployment of shore power is justifiable, but rather that care must be taken to determine the cost-efficient size of the network as well as to design the network of shore power deployment in ports so as to reap benefits of network effects. We also find that the pricing of shore power access has a major impact on expected uptake and consequently on whether or not shore power investments yield benefits in proportion to costs. Crucially, we find that unregulated profit-maximizing pricing by ports leads to significant welfare losses by suppressing take-up among shipowners.

Providing shore power to ships at berth is recognized as an effective measure to reduce external costs of maritime transport. However, shore power technology is subject to barriers, part of which relate to insufficient incentives for providers and users. Regulatory proposals in the EU have targeted liner shipping segments to be covered by a shore power mandate. There is much less research focused on non-liner segments of shipping, though these represent a significant share of at-berth emissions. This study uses a relatively simple modelling framework to analyze whether public investments in shore power deployment could be socio-economically beneficial. We find that investing in the provision of shore power in ports can be socio-economically beneficial also when aimed at bulk carriers, tankers and general cargo ships. We also find that the pricing of access affects expected uptake and consequently whether or not shore power investments yield benefits in proportion to costs.

Sjöfartsverket har gett VTI i uppdrag att granska ett förslag till ny modell för uttag av farledsavgifter, ett förslag som Sjöfartsverket tagit fram och som ska gälla från den 1 januari 2023. Förslaget förutsätts vara intäktsneutralt, det vill säga att tarifferna i det nya förslaget ska generera lika stora intäkter som de totala intäkterna ur det nuvarande systemet. I uppdraget ingår inte att studera några effekter av förändrade lotsavgifter. Uppdraget består av två delmål: 

1) VTI ska genomföra en oberoende konsekvensanalys av förslaget till reviderade farledsavgifter. Mot bakgrund av resultaten i Merkel m.fl. (2021) ska de samlade förändringar som Sjöfartsverket föreslår testas, med betoning på Sjöfartsverkets intäktsmassa och farledsavgifternas fördelning mellan handelssjöfartens olika segment. 

2) VTI ska analysera förslaget ur ett samhällsekonomiskt perspektiv. Mot bakgrund av de studier som VTI genomfört rörande effekter av avgiftsförändringar på sjöfartens trafikering i svenska hamnar ska eventuella effekter på anlöp (trafikeringseffekter) och trafikslagsval för godstransporter (överflyttningseffekter) redovisas. Därtill ska VTI analysera vilka övriga fördelningseffekter som väntas orsakas av förslaget, inklusive effekter på inlandshamnar och olika näringsgrenar. 

Tillvägagångssättet för konsekvensanalysen beskriven i delmål 1 bygger vidare på det arbete med konsekvensanalyser som tidigare gjorts av VTI, där en beräkningsmodell konstruerats för att följa upp förväntade effekter av avgiftsförändringar. Tillvägagångssättet för att analysera effekter på trafikering, eventuella överflyttningseffekter och fördelningseffekter i delmål 2 är att sammanställa relevanta resultat från tidigare studier och tillämpa dessa på Sjöfartsverkets förslag till reviderad avgiftsmodell.

In moving towards a sustainable transport system, the Swedish government has stated that policy actions related to electrification and increasing the share of renewable fuels must be complemented with a modal shift of freight transport from road to rail and sea. The question addressed in this report is whether policies aimed specifically at improving the attractiveness of small ports in Sweden can contribute to an increased use of maritime transport by enabling more competitive services. Small ports are typically considered to be at a disadvantage due to not being able to achieve economies of scale and their lack of connectivity to large trade routes. There are significant economies of scale in port operations but increasing the competitiveness of small and peripheral ports may be key to achieving a modal shift. This study sets out to investigate broadly what would be required for maritime transport services utilizing small ports to be competitive vis-à-vis competing land-based services.

Swedish small ports are at a structural disadvantage in several respects. For several small ports, users face higher costs of pilotage due to long and time-consuming navigational approaches. The current structure of fairway dues is not set up to incentivize maritime services consolidating/de-consolidating cargo at several small ports. The sum of port-related costs is high in general, which incentivizes a reduction in the number of port calls and favours a rationalization of avoidable visits at small ports.

In order to investigate the potential for small ports to contribute to a modal shift, we simulate the effect of four policy scenarios aimed to improve the competitiveness of maritime freight transport as a modal alternative or to improve the competitiveness of small ports specifically. These scenarios are 1) reducing maritime transport costs, 2) increasing road transport costs, 3) reducing the costs of cargo handling at small Swedish ports and 4) reducing cargo handling times at small Swedish ports.

The results show that all simulated scenarios would lead to an increase in the modal share of maritime freight transport. However, the effect of the policies that either reduce maritime transport costs overall or increase road transport costs have a greater effect on the modal split than the policies aimed specifically at small ports. The interesting finding is made that most of the increased maritime tonnage that would follow as a result of more competitive maritime freight services would be absorbed by small ports in the system. The study shows that in order to enact a successful modal shift strategy, small and peripheral ports need be considered as part of the solution. If extending the sea legs of intermodal freight trips is an objective, it is crucial to maintain a geographically diverse and highly functioning port system in order to serve the needs of shippers and cargo owners. We highlight the need for future research to more comprehensively assess how underutilized potential in the entire port system can be used to promote competitive short-sea services as a modal alternative to road.

Syftet med denna PM är att kartlägga huruvida och på vilket sätt allmänna hamnar i Sverige miljödifferentierar sina avgifter. Detta görs för att bättre förstå dagens situation samt att undersöka vilken eller vilka delar av avgiften som är differentierad och vilken innebörd detta kan ha för redare som uppfyller respektive inte uppfyller ställda krav på fartygs miljöprestanda. 

Kartläggningen visar att majoriteten av de allmänna hamnarna i Sverige tillämpar någon form av miljödifferentiering i bestämmandet av avgifter och taxor för anlöpande trafik. Miljödifferentieringen hamnarna emellan är dock inte samordnad. Som bas för miljödifferentieringen används en rad olika index och kriterier kopplade till fartygs miljöprestanda. Även rabattnivåerna som kan erhållas skiljer sig åt, även om många hamnar har valt att ha liknande nivåer. På grund av den bristande samordningen är det svårt att jämföra de olika hamnarna med varandra. 

Genomgången visar att drygt hälften av de allmänna hamnar som tillämpar miljödifferentierade avgifter använder sig av indexen Clean Shipping Index (CSI) eller Environmental Ship Index (ESI). Andra förekommande varianter är att hamnar utgår från äldre certifikatsystem för kväveoxid- och svaveloxidreduktion. Vissa hamnar ger rabatt om fartygen använder LNG för framdrift och/eller tillhandahåller miljödifferentierade fartygsavgifter och gör det billigare för redare om de kopplar upp fartyg till landansluten el. Det förekommer även investeringsstöd som åtgärd för att ge incitament för fartygen att ställa om, förutsatt att fartyget fortsätter att trafikera hamnen. 

Sammanfattningsvis pekar kartläggningen på att viss likriktning råder i hur avgifter miljödifferentieras, framför allt i de stora allmänna hamnarna. Det råder dock fortfarande en brist på koordinering, vilket visas av att många av de hamnar som tillämpar miljödifferentiering gör detta med olika baser för beräkning av rabatter. Dessutom tillämpar långt ifrån alla hamnar ett system som är kompatibelt med rabattsystemet för de statliga farledsavgifterna.

The purpose of this report is to contribute to a better understanding of inland waterway transport (IWT) in Sweden, and to shed light on how public procurement can be designed to make better use of the potential of IWT. The aim is also to calculate benefits and costs that arise when IWT instead of road transport is procured. 

IWT makes up a very small portion of the total transport activity in Sweden compared with several other European countries. According to literature, this is explained by Sweden’s absence of waivers with respect to fees, staffing, qualifications, or pilot services. However, studies suggest that the potential for IWT in Sweden is limited, and the benefits of waivers targeted at IWT can be questioned.

Detta är en delrapport i Projektet Hållbar inlandssjöfart – offentlig upphandling som katalysator. En utgångspunkt för projektet är regeringens nationella godstransportstrategi där det framgår att en överflyttning av godstransporter från väg till järnväg och sjöfart ska främjas. Syftet med delrapporten är att utgöra ett kunskapsunderlag för att bättre förstå förutsättningarna för att bedriva inlandssjöfart i Sverige. Vi beskriver hur arbetet med inlandssjöfarten organiseras i Sverige och vilken roll offentlig upphandling och regelverk spelar för inlandssjöfartens konkurrenssituation. Praktiska erfarenheter vid offentliga upphandlingar i Stockholmsområdet med koppling till inlandssjöfart redovisas också. Jämförelser görs med Nederländerna, Tyskland, Belgien och Frankrike, länder med en betydligt högre andel inlandssjöfart av det totala transportarbetet jämfört med Sverige. I den huvudrapport som kommer publiceras under våren 2021 studeras även samhällsekonomiska effekter av att använda inre vattenvägar istället för vägar vid godstransporter i olika relevanta transportscenarier. Huvudrapporten kommer också innehålla förslag på riktlinjer för hur offentlig upphandling kan ta hänsyn till inlandssjöfarten som ett transportalternativ.

The extent of competition between maritime freight transport and land-based modes of freight transport is studied using different methods. Previous elasticity calculations with the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods are updated. The elasticity calculations made with the latest model version indicate slightly lower elasticities for shipping compared to the elasticities that were calculated earlier.

The elasticity estimates from an econometric approach using data from the Swedish commodity flow survey from 2016 indicates somewhat higher own-price elasticities.

A systematic review of studies which estimate own-price, cross-price or time elasticities of demand for maritime transport shows that this report’s modelled elasticities are on low in comparison to the international literature. The evaluation of how much freight could potentially be shifted focuses primarily on shifting volumes from road to sea. Decomposing the growth in freight transport work over the past years using a shift-share analysis technique shows that maritime transport lost market shares, primarily to road transport.

EU’s roadmap “Fit for 55” comprises four parts that affect maritime transport 1) Extension of the Trading System (EU ETS) to shipping, 2) changed Energy Tax Directive (ETD) which means an end to tax exemption for marine fuel, 3) FuelEU Maritime which involves a greenhouse gas intensity standard for marine fuel and 4) requirements for provision of infrastructure for bunkering of alternative fuels and electricity. The effects of 1) and 2) on costs for Swedish freight transport are calculated for the main scenario (EU Commission's proposal) and three alternative scenarios. The scenarios are based on a static time perspective. Effects of 3) and 4) are presented based on existing analyses. 

The Commission's proposal to include ships with a gross tonnage of at least 5 000 in the EU ETS covers only 78 percent of the CO2 emissions. The problem increases if actors are given incentives to make greater use of ships that are not covered by the EU ETS. A recommendation is therefore that, at least in the long term, also ships with a lower gross tonnage than 5 000 should be included in the EU ETS. The estimated fuel cost increases due to EU ETS differ between segments (11–42 percent in European Economic Area EEA) while the cost increase due to the ETD is six percent in all segments. 

Modeling with the Swedish national freight model indicates that the calculated fuel cost increases for sea transports do not lead to a major modal shift. EU ETS thresholds of at least 5 000 respectively 400 gross tonnage lead to different adaptations in terms of choice of ships. The higher fuel costs for maritime transport are not calculated to affect the total logistics costs to a large extent because these cost increases are small relative to other costs and the adaptations to the higher fuel costs lead to a dampening of the cost effect.

The use of maritime transport is associated with external costs such as those related to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. If corrective taxes, fees or regulations are levied on the production of maritime transport services, these costs become internal and decision-makers will take into account the full social cost of transport. Shipping is subject to less incentive-based regulation than e.g. road transport, but Sweden represents a relatively unique regulatory case with its national system of fairway dues, which are differentiated according the environmental performance of ships. The central question posed in this paper is whether Sweden's internalizing national transport policy measures are in proportion to the societal costs generated by maritime traffic in Swedish waters. Using a dataset comprising all vessel movements in Swedish territorial waters during a year, we estimate the marginal external and infrastructure costs of maritime traffic and find that, depending on the set of unit values applied, the degree of internalization ranges between around 53% and 90%. We also evaluate the effects of a recent re-appraisal of CO2 in the Swedish official guidelines for cost benefit analysis and show that under the new recommendation the degree of internalization is significantly lower: 23–28%. Because the degree of internalization varies significantly between different shipping segments, a uniform increase of the charges currently in place is not recommended. Instead, we highlight that other, more appropriate instruments for internalization may be needed. © 2020 The Authors