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  • 1.
    Björk, Lisa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Nyberg, Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Scania.
    Regeringsuppdrag om elektrifieringen av transporter: kostnader, finansiering och affärsmodeller2022Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In September 2021, the Swedish Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) was commissioned by the government to "contribute to the knowledge building regarding a fast, smart and socio-economically efficient electrification of the transport sector". VTI produces separate reports that correspond to different issues in the government commission. This report describes the costs for different actors and the socio-economic effects of electrification with different technologies, as well as existing financing issues and possible business models.

    Sweden has the ambition to be a pioneering country that can show the potential of electrification of the transport sector, as well as spread innovation and technological development that can accelerate electrification globally. The transition to an electrified transport system requires behavioral change, innovation, and infrastructure investments on a large scale.

    The road sector accounts for almost 95 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions generated by domestic transport in Sweden. The potential to electrify large parts of the road transports already exists today. Electrification of the road sector can make renewable liquid and gaseous fuels available to segments where electrification is more difficult to implement, such as work machines, shipping, and aviation. Availability of low emission fuels for these segments is crucial to achieve net zero emissions by 2045. It may therefore be cost-effective to accelerate electrification of the road sector. In 2021, 45 percent of the registered passenger cars in Sweden that year were fully electric or plug in hybrids. The growth in demand is predicted to increase rapidly.

    A rapid increase in electric vehicles places high demands on the availability of sufficient charging infrastructure and capacity in the electricity networks to meet the demand for energy supply. Electric vehicles and charging infrastructure are associated with large network effects that justify policy instruments to enable a high, and socio-economically efficient, transitioning towards an electrified transport sector. The report discusses several of the instruments within the EU and in Sweden that contribute to accelerating electrification. The increase in ambition presented by the European Commission in the climate legislation package Fit for 55 can greatly impact on the incentives for companies and consumers to switch to electrified vehicles. The package contains various proposals that signal a long-term price of greenhouse gas emissions that increases over time. How the proposals affect the effectiveness of Sweden's national instruments, and how they should be adjusted or complemented, needs to be further analyzed. 

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  • 2.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Kågeson, Per
    Nature Associates.
    The economics of electric roads2021In: Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, ISSN 0968-090X, E-ISSN 1879-2359, Vol. 125, article id 102990Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we present a method for evaluating social benefits of electric roads and apply it to the Swedish highway network. Together with estimated investments costs this can be used to produce a cost benefit analysis. An electric road is characterized by high economies of scale (high investment cost and low marginal cost) and considerable economies of scope (the benefit per kilometre electric road depends on the size of the network), implying that the market will produce a smaller network of electric roads, or charge higher prices for its use, than what is welfare optimal. For this reason, it is relevant for governments to consider investing in electric roads, making the cost-benefit analysis a key decision support. We model the behaviour of the carriers using the Swedish national freight model system, SAMGODS, determining the optimal shipment sizes and optimal transport chains, including mode and vehicle type. We find that if the user charge is set as to optimize social welfare, the revenue will not fully cover the investment cost of the electric road. If they are instead set to optimize profit, we find that the revenue will cover the costs if the electric road network is large enough. Electric roads appear to provide a cost-effective means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from heavy trucks. In a scenario where the expansion connects the three biggest cities in Sweden, emissions will be cut by one-third of the overall emissions from heavy trucks in Sweden. The main argument against a commitment to electric roads is that investment and maintenance costs are uncertain and that, in the long run, battery development or hydrogen fuel cells can reduce the benefit of such roads. © 2021 The Author(s)

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  • 3.
    Fukushima, Nanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Fossilt till bio: Klimatpåverkan av drivmedelsdistribution2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Despite the recognition of the role that biofuels play in achieving climate objectives in Sweden and the EU, there exists a gap in our understanding of how the production and distribution of biofuels impact Swedish greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, recent geopolitical events have highlighted the vulnerabilities stemming from the nation's reliance on imported fuel, elevating energy supply concerns to the realm of national security. These concerns underscore the need for a better comprehension of the evolution of fossil-free transportation systems. The objective of this study is to examine and map the production, distribution, and fuel demand in Sweden today to set the stage for future analyses that seek to explore how changes in logistics, transportation, and fuel production locations may affect greenhouse gas emissions in the country, particularly from an increased self-sufficiency in biofuel production in Sweden.

    Another goal of this study is the establishment of a reference group, aimed at providing an accurate assessment and bridging potential knowledge gaps. To this end, we have collaborated with key organizations, including the Swedish Energy Agency and Drivkraft Sverige, a Swedish trade association for fuel industry. Additionally, we have initiated a partnership with Skogforsk, a forestry research institute with extensive knowledge in biofuel production from woody biomass – the resource with the greatest potential for large-scale biofuel production in Sweden. Through this study, we have laid a solid foundation for subsequent analyses, the outcomes of which will contribute improve biofuel distribution and provide recommendations for national policy measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

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  • 4.
    Holmgren, Kristina
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment. RISE.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Polukarova, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Sjöfartens användning av alternativa bränslen: trender och förutsättningar2021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This study assesses information of the utilisation of alternative fuels within shipping. Alternative fuels for shipping, refers to fuels not conventionally used for maritime purposes and include biofuels, as well as electricity, LNG, and methanol. Alternative fuels are today (to varying degree) fossil-based but could, in the future, be produced from fossil free feedstocks and contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants from shipping. This study includes Swedish domestic shipping and international (departing or arriving in Swedish ports) liner shipping.

    In addition to describing the utilisation of alternative fuels and the trends in the fuel utilisation the objective is also to describe properties of the shipping, including patterns of ship movement, distances and frequency for routes, velocities etc, to be used in future studies to analyse the potential for transition to fossil free propulsion. The established datasets have also been used for making a rough estimate of the potential to replace fuel consumption by electricity within the ship categories with the highest estimated share of liner shipping.

    The study includes the following data collection:

    • Literature and other information from researchers, authorities and the shipping industry concerning the use of alternative fuels.
    • Questionnaires to shipping companies conducting domestic shipping and international liner shipping.
    • Two datasets based on ship-movement data (AIS-data) during 2019 for ships within the Baltic Sea, including Skagerrak and Kattegat, and the Shipair-model, assessed by SMHI.
    • Information on how the shipping industry works with the transition towards fossil free conditions based on the summary of a digital workshop organized within the project.

    The results show that for domestic and international shipping it is ropax, tanker and general cargo ships that stands for the largest shares of the fuel consumption.

    According to our analysis ropaxes and passenger ferries have the highest share of liner shipping. Also, passenger cruises and vehicle carriers’ categories have a certain amount of such liner shipping.

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  • 5.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Luftfartens klimatpåverkande utsläpp  – differentierade marginalkostnader: En delrapport inom Samkost 32018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Air travel has increased sharply over the past 30 years, and forecasts indicate that the rate of growth may last for decades to come. Estimates of how air traffic affects the climate and methods used to calculate marginal costs are therefore of importance. The methods should also allow for the study of different parts of the airline market since results may vary extensively depending on aircraft and engine type used.

    In this report, data from the Swedish Transport Agency comprising all air traffic movements to/from Swedish airports 2016 have been used to provide estimates of social costs for carbon dioxide emissions and costs related to non-CO2 emissions at high altitude. A method has been developed that makes it possible to calculate results for passenger traffic, freight flights and postal flights separately and to study differences between, for example, regular traffic, chartered flights and air taxi. The report incorporates results for domestic flights and flights from Sweden to airports within or outside the EU emissions trading system. Results for different Swedish airports and for a couple of routes are presented. Climate effects from flight movements with empty planes are also considered.

    The report presents results related to the vehicles, i.e. emissions per vehicle kilometre and per flight, and results related to passengers and cargo, i.e. per passenger- and tonne-kilometres and per passenger and loaded weight. The latter has not been analysed at same level of detail earlier.  

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  • 6.
    Johansson, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Oskar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Internalisering av godstrafikens externa effekter – konsekvensanalyser med Samgodsmodellen: en delrapport inom SAMKOST 32018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI has been commissioned to review the current knowledge of social marginal costs for using the country’s national infrastructure, Government Decision N2017/01023/TS. As a part of this commission VTI is asked to assess the effects of a full internalisation of external costs within the transport sector.

    In this report the effects on freight transports of gods being traded within and to/from Sweden is assessed using the Swedish national freight flow model Samgods. The analysis includes calculating the appropriate levels of tax and/or fees needed for decisionmakers in the freight transport market to fully take in to account the external effects of traffic with different types of vehicles. In a second step the freight flow model is used to estimate effects on ton-kilometers transported on road, rail and sea respectively.

    Results show that the resulting change in relative costs for transporting with different modes of transport will increase ton-kilometers transported by sea. A full internalization of external cost will decrease ton-kilometer transported by rail and on road. The largest decrease being calculated for rail. To fully take account for external effects track fees in Sweden will have to be four times higher. In total we estimate a small but positive effect on the climate.

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  • 7.
    Johansson, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Westin, Jonas
    CERUM, Umeå universitet.
    Sjöfart mot svensk hamn 2007 till 2019: förändringar i volym, struktur och rörelsemönster2021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Using ship positional data to study maritime traffic calling at Swedish ports from has long been an underutilized potential. In this project, the possibilities of using information from the automatic identification system (AIS) are investigated, including how this information can be used to complement the official statistics covering maritime traffic calling at Swedish ports. 

    Using AIS, it is possible to track and compile the movements of individual vessels in the Baltic Sea, Kattegatt and the eastern parts of Skagerack through the geographic positioning signals sent by ships approximately every ten seconds. In order to use this information, some sort of method is needed to handle the generated amounts of data. In this project, a method has been developed which can be briefly described as consisting of two steps. In the first step, the amount of AIS data is limited by filtering out the datapoints wherein ships pass in and out of ports. For every passage in and out of a port there is a corresponding date and time. In the second step, the port calls are sequenced chronologically so that a vessel’s pattern of movement through the Baltic Sea area can be tracked. Finally, these datapoints can be matched against the information regarding dates, which is available in the official statistics. This matching process allows the resulting database of voyages and port calls to be complemented with loaded and unloaded cargo volumes in Swedish ports. Using the created database, the development of maritime traffic calling at Swedish ports can be studied during the period 2007 to 2018.

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  • 8.
    Johansson, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lind, Joar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Regionala skillnader i transportkostnader för gods2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth has assigned VTI to investigate the degree to which freight transport costs to and from the 44 municipalities in Sweden’s four northernmost counties are higher than for the rest of the country. The calculations undertaken in this report have mainly been done using the Swedish national freight model Samgods. The results of this report are to be used as an input to the Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth in its government assignment of analyzing additional costs of transport for companies in the transport subsidy area (Sweden’s four northernmost counties). 

    The cost calculations made using the Samgods model and the calculated cost disparities, expressed in SEK per ton, show that there is an overall, support for the notion that transport costs are higher in the subsidized areas than outside subsidized areas. The clearest transport cost differential between companies inside/outside the subsidized area are found when transport costs are calculated for a hypothetical scenario where municipalities have identical industry structure. For a majority of the calculation methods, results show that one or more of the municipalities within the subsidized area do not exhibit additional transport costs. 

    For all calculation methods, it is found that additional transport costs are higher for incoming transport than for outgoing transport; this finding is valid for the majority of municipalities. The calculated additional transport costs in some instances vary greatly between municipalities with a shared administrative border. A municipality with negative additional cost (i.e. with lower transport costs than the reference median) may neighbor a municipality with a very high level of additional transport cost; this has also been noted in previous studies. Regardless of calculation method, there are municipalities outside the subsidized area whose additional costs are found to be higher than for certain municipalities within the subsidized area.

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  • 9.
    Johansson, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Merkel, Axel
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. VTI.
    Sjötrafik i Vänern och Mälaren: transportkostnader, avgifter och transportmönster2020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Based on an assignment by the Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA), this report analyzes the sensitivity of freight transport on Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren regarding changes in fees and dues. The background for this study is that the SMA in 2018 introduced a new way of charging for fairway dues and pilot fees, and that the SMA in order to support a possible future revision of the charging system, needs more comprehensive knowledge regarding the development of traffic on Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren over time. This report studies the period 2016 to 2019. In this assignment, the SMA also requested answers to a series of specific questions. The answers to the following questions are given in the report: a) How much of the total transport cost for vessel trips calling at ports in Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren are made up of fees and dues levied by the SMA?, b) How are the charges distributed between fairway dues and pilot fees?, c) How has vessel traffic on Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren changed between 2016 and 2019?, d) Based on the changed system of charging for dues and fees during the period, has there been a modal shift from sea to land-based transport?, e) What does the composition of cargoes transported by sea look like, and has it changed over time?, f) What is the price elasticity with regard to shifting various types of goods to other modes of transport?, g) How have transport costs changed during the period for land-based transport compared to maritime transport? The following methods are applied: analysis of SMA’s revenues from fairway dues and pilot fees and Transport Analysis statistics Shipping goods, a literature review and cost calculations for some cases.

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  • 10.
    Johansson, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. VTI.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Kinas nya sidenvägar: effekter på svensk handel och svenska transporter2020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI has been commissioned by Trafikanalys to assess how initiated and announced infrastructure investments within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can impact Swedish trade and Swedish transports. BRI is a global development strategy launched by China in 2013 and is expected to continue until 2049. By March 2019, the initiative comprised 125 countries and 29 international organizations that cooperated within 173 coordination agreements in various constellations. In this report, the focus is on infrastructure investments that are carried out to facilitate trade between Asia and Europe.

    The analyzed outcome is only connected to changes in transport time and trade costs. No assessment is made on how BRI may affect economic growth in different countries, which would further impact Swedish and international trade. In total, 93 infrastructure projects are included in the analysis, of which 67 are related to land transports (railways in particular) and 26 are related to maritime transports. There are three major railway routes that are included; a Trans-Siberian route through Russia that connects to the northern part of China, a route via Kazakhstan that connects to the north western parts of China, and a southern route via Turkey and Iran that connects to south western China. The route via Kazakhstan is the most utilized route today, while the southern route requires major investments. For maritime transports, most of the projects are reinforcements of port infrastructure along current routes from eastern China via the Suez canal, while there are also plans to develop the so called Thai canal to avoid the route around the Malay Peninsula, as well as to open waterways through the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Strait.

    Effects on bilateral trade are estimated with an econometric (gravity) model, using trade flows and country specific variables during years 1988 to 2017. Specifically, the model is used to examine the effect of a reduction in trade frictions between countries. Changes in these trade frictions are based on calculations in de Soyres et al. (2018), indicating the potential improvements in transport times and trade costs generated by projects in BRI. In a second stage, the effects on Swedish transports are analyzed using the Swedish national model for freight transportation (Samgods), in which different transport solutions are estimated. In particular, these solutions are estimated with the commodity specific demand matrices in the Swedish Transport Administration’s (Trafikverkets) freight transport forecast for year 2040, as well as with demand matrices that are revised based on the BRI results from the gravity model. In addition, trade and transports are linked together based on descriptions of Sweden’s current trade with countries mostly affected by BRI and based on previous estimates of transport volumes and transport patterns for different commodity groups.

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  • 11.
    Johansson, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Bondemark, Anders
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. VTI.
    Utvärdering av Sjöfartsverkets nya avgiftsmodell 2018: en modelljämförelse för perioden 2017 till 20192020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI has been assigned by the Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) to analyze the effects of the structural changes made to the charging system for fairway and pilot fees between 2017 and 2018. To study the effects of the changed system, the sum of fees extracted in 2018 with the sum of fees extracted in 2017 are compared, but the latter figure is scaled up to generate the same amount of total income as in 2018. This is in order to simulate a scenario where the SMA would have raised its fees but kept its previous charging system. Comparing the two outcomes illustrates how the fees extracted from different vessel segments and sizes were affected by the changes made to the charging system. When the total value of extracted fairway fees before and after the change according to the description above are analyzed, the total value of extracted fees was lowered for the tanker and bulk segments in 2018. This indicates that these segments benefited from the changed charging structure. The segments that were adversely impacted were container vessels, RoRo vessels and general cargo vessels. On average, the system in place since 2018 has led to lower environmental incentives per vessel than the system in place until 2017. However, the value of environmental incentives increased in 2019. The change in pilot fees had the largest effect on the RoRo and general cargo segments. For the general cargo segment, the change led to an increase in the value of pilot fees charged per service of around 1 500 SEK and for RoRo vessels, the change is calculated to have led to a reduced average pilotage fee of around 2 600 SEK per service. In order to provide an overall view of how sensitive maritime transport is regarding changes in fairway dues and pilot fees, an analysis has been undertaken in which transport costs for a few trade links have been calculated. Simple cost comparisons like this can primarily be of use in highlighting the economies of scale inherent in shipping and rail transport operations. In order to study the extent of competition between modes, other logistical factors such as inventory holding, frequency of service, flexibility etc. need to be considered.

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  • 12.
    Johansson, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Holmgren, Kristina
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Klimat- och miljöeffekter av att flytta godstransporter från väg: beräkningar för år 2017, 2030 och 20402021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this report is to study how policy instruments for a modal shift of long-haul freight transport movements with a point of origin and/or destination in Sweden, from road to rail or sea, affects the distribution of freight tonne-kilometres across the different modes of transport and their direct emissions of greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxides, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter to air. The report also analyses whether the Swedish climate objective for domestic transport in 2030 can be expected to be fulfilled. The analysis is conducted in two steps. First, possible developments of freight tonne-kilometres and emission levels until 2030 and 2040 are compared to current figures reflecting 2017. This is done by developing a set of alternative prognoses and analyzing these using the national freight transport model Samgods. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments are analyzed with respect to modal split and emissions to air. The effects of policy instruments are evaluated for the present (reflecting 2017) and for the 2030 and 2040 prognoses. To conduct the analysis, emission factors per tonne-kilometre have been developed for each of the Samgods model’s six road freight vehicles, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types.

    Given the conditions that are assumed in the prognoses, the amount of freight tonne-kilometres is calculated to increase by between 31 and 53 percent between 2017 and 2040. The increase is generally largest for maritime transport, followed by road transport and smallest for rail transport. Despite the large increase of freight tonne-kilometres, emissions of greenhouse gases are calculated to decrease by 50 to 60 percent. The assumed technological development is thus calculated to be able to carry the prognosticated growth in tonne-kilometres, given a high rate of biofuel blending. According to the calculated results, greenhouse gas emissions from domestic freight transport can be reduced by 57 percent at most between 2010 and 2030. This means that the freight transport segment cannot achieve its share of emissions reductions to reach the objective of a 70 percent reduction over the period. Emissions of nitrogen oxides are expected to reduce by between 60 and 75 percent, emissions of sulphur dioxides to reduce by between 41 and 50 percent, emissions of volatile organic compounds to increase by 8 to 30 percent and emissions of particulate matter (from exhaust and tyre/road wear) are calculated to increase by between 13 and 33 percent.

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  • 13.
    Johansson, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Holmgren, Kristina
    RISE.
    Cullinane, Kevin
    Göteborgs universitet.
    How will electrification and increased use of new fuels affect the effectiveness of freight modal shift policies?2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to determine how policy instruments targeting a modal shift of long-haul freight transport from road to rail or shipping might affect the distribution of freight tonne-kilometers across the different modes of transport in Sweden. The analysis is conducted in two steps. First, possible developments of freight tonne-kilometers until 2030 and 2040 are compared to base figures for 2017. This is done by developing a set of alternative forecast models where different assumptions and scenarios prevail and analyzing these using Sweden’s national freight transport model SAMGODS. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments – a wear and tear tax for road traffic and an ecobonus scheme to promote shipping by rail and sea – are analysed with respect to modal split in the base year of 2017 and for the forecast year 2040. The analysis involves the aggregation of calculated modal shares across each of the SAMGODS model's vehicle/ship types – i.e., six road freight vehicles, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types. Given the conditions that are assumed in the forecasts, the amount of freight tonne- kilometers is calculated to increase by between 31% and 53 % between 2017 and 2040. The increase is generally largest for maritime transport, followed by road transport and smallest for rail transport. The concept developed in this paper can be useful in studying impacts of different types of technology shifts and policy packages.

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  • 14.
    Johansson, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Holmgren, Kristina
    RISE.
    Cullinane, Kevin
    Göteborgs universitet.
    The climate and environmental effects of policies for moving freight transport from road to other modes: the case of Sweden2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to determine how policy instruments which aim to achieve a modal shift of long-haul freight transport from road to rail or sea affect the direct emissions to air of greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxides, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. The analysis is conducted in two stages. First, a range of forecasts reflecting different assumptions are applied using the Swedish national freight transport model (SAMGODS) to derive a range of possible future developments of emissions levels up to 2030 and 2040. This has involved determining emission factors per tonne-km for each of the SAMGODS model's six road freight vehicle types, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types. The model outcomes are then compared to those of the base year of 2017. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments are analyzed with respect to their potential impact on emissions to air. The effects of these two policy instruments are evaluated for the base-year of 2017 and for the 2030 and 2040 forecasts. The paper also analyzes whether the Swedish climate objective for domestic transport in 2030 can be expected to be fulfilled given different forecasts and policy instruments. Within the context of a predicted large increase in total freight tonne-km (between 31 and 53%), emissions of greenhouse gases are calculated to decrease by 50 to 60% by 2040. This means that the Swedish freight transport sector will not achieve its share of greenhouse gas emissions reductions necessary to attain the national climate objective of a 70% reduction by 2030. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are forecast to reduce by between 60 and 75%, emissions of sulfur dioxides to reduce by between 41 and 50%, emissions of volatile organic compounds to increase by 8 to 30% and emissions of particulate matter (from exhaust and tyre/road wear) are calculated to increase by between 13 and 33%. Using modal shift policy instruments to achieve greenhouse gas reductions is calculated to attain worse results over time, by 2040 it might even be counterproductive

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  • 15.
    Johansson, Magnus
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Holmgren, Kristina
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Sweden.
    Cullinane, Kevin
    University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    The climate and environmental effects of policies for moving freight transport from road to other modes: The case of Sweden2024In: Case Studies on Transport Policy, ISSN 2213-624X, E-ISSN 2213-6258, Vol. 15, article id 101151Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to determine how policy instruments which aim to achieve a modal shift of long-haul freight transport from road to rail or sea affect the direct emissions to air of greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxides, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter. The analysis is conducted in two stages. First, a range of forecasts reflecting different assumptions are applied using the Swedish national freight transport model (SAMGODS) to derive a range of possible future developments of emissions levels up to 2030 and 2040. This has involved determining emission factors per tonne-km for each of the SAMGODS model's six road freight vehicle types, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types. The model outcomes are then compared to those of the base year of 2017. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments are analyzed with respect to their potential impact on emissions to air. The effects of these two policy instruments are evaluated for the base-year of 2017 and for the 2030 and 2040 forecasts. The paper also analyzes whether the Swedish climate objective for domestic transport in 2030 can be expected to be fulfilled given different forecasts and policy instruments. Within the context of a predicted large increase in total freight tonne-km (between 31 and 53%), emissions of greenhouse gases are calculated to decrease by 50 to 60% by 2040. This means that the Swedish freight transport sector will not achieve its share of greenhouse gas emissions reductions necessary to attain the national climate objective of a 70% reduction by 2030. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are forecast to reduce by between 60 and 75%, emissions of sulfur dioxides to reduce by between 41 and 50%, emissions of volatile organic compounds to increase by 8 to 30% and emissions of particulate matter (from exhaust and tyre/road wear) are calculated to increase by between 13 and 33%. Using modal shift policy instruments to achieve greenhouse gas reductions is calculated to attain worse results over time, by 2040 it might even be counterproductive. 

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  • 16.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    A cost-benefit analysis of all-electric flight: how to do a CBA for a non-existing technology?2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Increasing climate ambitions mean that emissions of greenhouse gases, even from the aviation sector, must fall. The purpose of this study has been to contribute to this development by doing a benefit-cost analysis of all-electric aviation (AEA). We define AEA as battery-driven aviation without a combustion engine or fuel cell on board. Since the technology only exists in very small scale today, much of the work has been to find guestimates of the costs. However, we have been able to build on very good data on all take-offs and landings in Sweden year 2019. On the other hand, the data we have had on ticket prices is very poor. Based on the available data, we have estimated supply and demand functions for conventional flight in 2019. These estimates have been used to calculate the producer and consumer surpluses from flight, both in 2019, in the business-as-usual using sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and for AEAs, the latter two in 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. The results indicate that at least from 2040 onwards, with the introduction of larger aircraft with the capacity of up to 100 passengers and a range of 650 km, AEAs will be commercially viable on many, if not all routes studied. AEAs seem to have a higher producer surplus than conventional, SAF-driven aircraft. Since AEAs, at least in 2030 and 2040 are slower than conventional aircraft, the consumer surplus falls given fixed ticket prices. We also calculate the benefits from reduced high-altitude effects, which gives a measure of the societal benefits from AEA and thus an indication of how much public funds that could be invested in airport infrastructure for AEAs. We recommend that investments for AEA infrastructure start from a few airports and are expanded over time. The only further policy we recommend is R&D subsidies for AEA and battery technology development. No other policy instruments seem to be necessary to get AEAs to fly.

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  • 17.
    Lindgren, Samuel
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. VTI.
    Ekonomitankning vid flygplatser: beräkningsunderlag2021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka i vilken utsträckning flygbolag väljer att ekonomitanka vid olika nivåer av prispåslag på fossilt flygbränsle i Sverige relativt andra länder. Med ekonomitankning avses att en operatör väljer att tanka extra mycket bränsle i det land där bränslet är billigast för att därmed reducera den bränslemängd som behövs till returresan. Vi beräknar graden av ekonomi-tankning vid olika nivåer av prispåslag i en modell som beaktar flygbolagens olika kostnader per flygning, kapacitetsbegränsningar och flygplanens bränsleförbrukning. Studien begränsas till den struktur på marknaden för flyg till och från svenska flygplatser, som förelåg 2019.

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  • 18.
    Merkel, Axel
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lindgren, Samuel
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Stockholm, Sweden.
    How (in)elastic is the demand for short-sea shipping?: A review of elasticities and application of different models to Swedish freight flows2021In: Transport reviews, ISSN 0144-1647, E-ISSN 1464-5327, p. 1-21Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Despite high ambitions, policies for a modal shift in Europe have largely been unsuccessful. Part of the explanation relates to the inelasticity of freight transport demand. Understanding the demand elasticity of freight transport is important to design and appraise policies for external cost reductions in the transport sector. There have been many studies focused on estimating the elasticity of demand for short-sea shipping, a mode which policy makers have often aimed to strengthen to facilitate a modal shift from road freight. The objective of this review is to build upon the available literature by presenting and comparing estimated elasticities and to demonstrate the state of evidence through the application of two methodological approaches. Our review shows that there is a surprising degree of variation in elasticity estimates, part of which can likely be explained by differing methodological approaches. Applying a deterministic cost-minimising freight transport model and a stochastic multinomial logit approach based on responses from the Swedish Cargo Flow Survey, we demonstrate the inelasticity of Swedish maritime freight flows and provide suggestions for future research and policy discussions. For future studies of maritime transport demand elasticities to arrive at reliable and policy-relevant results, we highlight the need for combined and pluralistic methodological approaches and an increased use of real-world data.

  • 19.
    Merkel, Axel
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lindgren, Samuel
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Björk, Lisa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. VTI.
    Konsekvensanalyser av justerade farleds- och lotsavgifter: kunskapsunderlag till avgiftsförändringar från 20232021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) charges commercial shipping fairway dues and pilot fees. The revenues from these charges account for over 70 percent of the SMA’s total revenues. Every five years, the SMA reviews its charging model. The next upcoming review is due in 2023, at which point a revised charging model is expected to be implemented. Long-term changes to the charging model are expected to be implemented in 2028. VTI, in cooperation with the SMA and the Ports of Sweden, is undertaking the research project “Fairway dues and pilot fees 2028: How to foster competitive and sustainable shipping?”. The purpose of the project is to deliver analyses and results relevant to the decision making regarding short-term changes to the charging model in 2023 and long-term changes in 2028. This report is a partial delivery of the project. 

    The purpose of the report is twofold. Firstly, the purpose is to analyze and account for the effects of fairway dues and pilot fees on maritime traffic in Sweden, using previous literature and original empirical analyses of previous fee changes. Secondly, the purpose is to describe the likely consequences of a spectrum of possible future changes to the charging model. This report therefore estimates and presents the likely impacts on different vessel segments following a series of hypothetical fee changes.

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  • 20.
    Merkel, Axel
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Gonzales-Aregall, Marta
    University of Gothenburg.
    Christodoulou, Anastasia
    University of Gothenburg.
    Cullinane, Kevin
    University of Gothenburg.
    Size, specialization and flexibility: the role of ports in a sustainable transport system2020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In moving towards a sustainable transport system, the Swedish government has stated that policy actions related to electrification and increasing the share of renewable fuels must be complemented with a modal shift of freight transport from road to rail and sea. The question addressed in this report is whether policies aimed specifically at improving the attractiveness of small ports in Sweden can contribute to an increased use of maritime transport by enabling more competitive services. Small ports are typically considered to be at a disadvantage due to not being able to achieve economies of scale and their lack of connectivity to large trade routes. There are significant economies of scale in port operations but increasing the competitiveness of small and peripheral ports may be key to achieving a modal shift. This study sets out to investigate broadly what would be required for maritime transport services utilizing small ports to be competitive vis-à-vis competing land-based services.

    Swedish small ports are at a structural disadvantage in several respects. For several small ports, users face higher costs of pilotage due to long and time-consuming navigational approaches. The current structure of fairway dues is not set up to incentivize maritime services consolidating/de-consolidating cargo at several small ports. The sum of port-related costs is high in general, which incentivizes a reduction in the number of port calls and favours a rationalization of avoidable visits at small ports.

    In order to investigate the potential for small ports to contribute to a modal shift, we simulate the effect of four policy scenarios aimed to improve the competitiveness of maritime freight transport as a modal alternative or to improve the competitiveness of small ports specifically. These scenarios are 1) reducing maritime transport costs, 2) increasing road transport costs, 3) reducing the costs of cargo handling at small Swedish ports and 4) reducing cargo handling times at small Swedish ports.

    The results show that all simulated scenarios would lead to an increase in the modal share of maritime freight transport. However, the effect of the policies that either reduce maritime transport costs overall or increase road transport costs have a greater effect on the modal split than the policies aimed specifically at small ports. The interesting finding is made that most of the increased maritime tonnage that would follow as a result of more competitive maritime freight services would be absorbed by small ports in the system. The study shows that in order to enact a successful modal shift strategy, small and peripheral ports need be considered as part of the solution. If extending the sea legs of intermodal freight trips is an objective, it is crucial to maintain a geographically diverse and highly functioning port system in order to serve the needs of shippers and cargo owners. We highlight the need for future research to more comprehensively assess how underutilized potential in the entire port system can be used to promote competitive short-sea services as a modal alternative to road.

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  • 21.
    Takman, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Andersson-Sköld, Yvonne
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Johansson, Jessica
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Hannele
    Energikontor Sydost.
    Uhlin, Lovisa
    Regional utveckling Örebro län.
    Kantelius, Åslög
    Region Jönköpings län.
    Biogas för tunga lastbilstransporter: barriärer och möjligheter2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report presents an in-depth study of barriers and opportunities regarding the commercialization of biogas, and particularly liquified biogas (LBG), for heavy trucks on a larger scale and how these challenges can be overcome. In the study we also identify key actors and other stakeholders in Sweden as well as under what circumstances they dare to invest in the biogas technology. To study the research questions a literature review as well as interviews and workshops with important actors were conducted. The results indicate that biogas is a fuel option that can contribute to reduced carbon dioxide emissions. Energy security and a circular economy are mentioned as important driving forces. The fact that new LBG trucks are now available on the market and that new policy instruments have come into force are also seen as opportunities. The absence of long-term, stable policy instruments and regulations, as well as high prices and costs for production, vehicles and gas are considered to be the main obstacles. Other barriers are lack of knowledge in the area, and that today’s renewable fuels are competing instead of complementing each other.

    There is a need for increased long-term regulatory frameworks that will benefit the most sustainable renewable fuels available today. It is also necessary to make sure that Swedish policies are harmonized with other policies in EU in a better way than the policies that have existed until today. There is also a need for more support systems, for example systems that favor the production of biogas, investment support for the vehicles that best fulfil climate and other environmental objectives, as well as support that includes the secondary market for the LBG vehicles to develop the market towards a more environmentally sustainable transport sector. Information efforts are also needed to inform about biogas in relation to other fuel options for heavy trucks, as well as information about that, and where, LBG fuel stations exist. Furthermore, demonstration projects that show vehicles on the roads as well as contribute to infrastructure development could help spread knowledge and demonstrate that the technology works and by doing so contributing to the development of the LBG market.

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  • 22.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    From, Emma
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Ek, Karin
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lind, Joar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Nya utgångspunkter för Sjöfartsverkets avgifter: Avgiftsmodell 20282024Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of the report is to estimate the costs of a fee model that

    • provides the Swedish Maritime Administration with revenues that correspond to the costs incurred in the provision of various services used by the merchant shipping industry
    • internalizes the vessels’ external costs and provides increased incentives to reduce the external costs.

    The fees should contribute to the fulfilment of the Swedish transport policy objectives.

    The current model comprises pilot fees and fairway dues and is criticized as

    • there is no direct link between the fees and costs for the services and the external costs
    • the frequency discount is inappropriate from an efficiency- and environmental point of view
    • the environmental discount has small effects
    • lack of transparency.

    The costs are as far as possible calculated per vessel, based data from 2019. The time perspective for the new model is 2028 and parts of EUs climate package “Fit for 55” are assumed to be implemented. The service-related costs are calculated in detail for pilotage and icebreaking and broadly for the other services; the external costs of the pilot boats’ and icebreakers’ emissions are included. The merchant vessels’ external costs of air emissions and accidents in Swedish waters are calculated. The volume of emissions is calculated using AIS-data (Automatic Identification System). The CO2-emissions are valuated based on the European Union Allowance (EUA) price and air pollution and accidents based on EU:s handbook for external costs of transport. The costs are calculated based on ("first-best") marginal cost pricing, for some of the service-related costs "second-best" is used to make sure that the costs are covered.

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  • 23.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    From, Emma
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lind, Joar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Ek, Karin
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Alternativ avgiftsmodell för Sjöfartsverket2024In: Sammanställning av referat från Transportforum 2024 / [ed] Fredrik Hellman; Mattias Haraldsson, Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2024, p. 51-52Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Sjöfartsverket belägger handelssjöfarten med lots- och farledsavgifter. Intäkterna från dessa avgifter utgör en viktig del av verkets finansiering samtidigt som avgifternas används för att uppnå olika politiska mål. Projektet har tagit fram rekommendationer till en justerad intäktsneutral avgiftsmodell och tar till december 2023 fram en ny avgiftsmodell som är förankrad i ekonomisk teori avseende styrmedel och prissättning och kräver inte intäktsneutralitet för Sjöfartsverket. Abstractet avser den sistnämnda modellen. Utgångspunkten är att de föreslagna lots- och farledsavgifterna ska täcka de operativa och externa kostnader som handelssjöfarten ger upphov till och att det inte finns ytterligare avgifter, frekvensrabatter eller miljöindex. Projektet undersöker i vilken grad olika modellutformningar kan bygga på principerna ”användaren betalar” och ”förorenaren betalar”.

    För att förstå vilka konsekvenser olika modeller skulle få på trafik, beteende, miljö och intäkter analyseras effekterna på trafikmängder, fartygstyper och miljöåtgärder. Samtliga kostnader och nyttor anges per år. Vidare studeras fördelningseffekter på de berörda aktörerna handelssjöfarten, Sjöfartsverket, staten, EU, övrigt samhälle. Borttagningen av beredskaps-, gods- och passageraravgifterna samt frekvensrabatterna i dagens avgiftsmodell leder till lägre avgifter for samtliga fartyg förutom kryssningsfartyg och färjor. Borttagningen av Clean Shipping index innebär högre avgifter för runt 100 fartyg i olika segment. 

    Handelssjöfarten täcker via lotsavgifter 93 % av kostnaderna för att tillhandahålla lotstjänster; en stor del av underskottet förklaras av rabatterna i Mälaren och Vänern. Handelssjöfarten i hela landet betalar via farledsavgifter för kostnaderna för att tillhandahålla isbrytarassistanser. I säsongen 2018/2019 mottag endast 118 fartyg assistanser. En konsekvent tillämpning av ”användaren betalar”- principen skulle i princip höja avgifterna norr om Gävle och sänka avgifterna i övriga landet. Alternativa modellutformningar analyseras där staten konsekvent täcker delar av kostnaderna för isbrytning, vilket regeringen tidigare planerat för. Enligt ”förorenaren betalar”-principen ska handelssjöfarten betala för sina icke internaliserade externa kostnader. 

  • 24.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    The impact of alternative environmentally differentiated fairway dues systems in Sweden2020In: Journal of Shipping and Trade, E-ISSN 2364-4575, Vol. 5, article id 25Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish system for determining fairway dues at the national level is acknowledged as being unique in attempting to consider the environmental performance of vessels. Between 1998 and 2014, vessels could get a SOX discount and between 1998 and 2017 a NOx discount, both based on certificates. In 2018, the Swedish government initiated a new system comprising more environmental impacts requiring operators that want to benefit from it, to register their vessels for a score in the Clean Shipping Index (CSI). The CSI covers performance in five categories: NOX, CO2, SOX/PM, Chemicals and Waste. Based on received scores, vessels can get 10%, 30% or 90% discount. In this paper, the short-term outcome of the new system is analysed and compared to the old NOX-based system. The comparison is based on revealed preferences of the involved vessel operators. Vessel specific data about the discounts and scores are analysed as well as the regional distribution of discounts and impacts on different vessel types. The paper shows that the Swedish Maritime Administration has succeeded in creating a system that attracts more vessel types and encompasses more environmental categories, but that the incentives to reduce NOX emissions have been reduced. Ex-post cost-benefit analyses of the earlier certificate-based systems have proven them beneficial to society. However, it is unclear how the outcome of the new system will be. The paper suggests that there are efficiency gains in harmonising the system SMA has introduced with the different systems for environmentally differentiated port fees in Sweden.

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  • 25.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Merkel, Axel
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Lindgren, Samuel
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Sjöstrand, Henrik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. VTI.
    Konkurrensyta land - sjö: vilken potential finns för överflyttning till sjöfart?2020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The extent of competition between maritime freight transport and land-based modes of freight transport is studied using different methods. Previous elasticity calculations with the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods are updated. The elasticity calculations made with the latest model version indicate slightly lower elasticities for shipping compared to the elasticities that were calculated earlier.

    The elasticity estimates from an econometric approach using data from the Swedish commodity flow survey from 2016 indicates somewhat higher own-price elasticities.

    A systematic review of studies which estimate own-price, cross-price or time elasticities of demand for maritime transport shows that this report’s modelled elasticities are on low in comparison to the international literature. The evaluation of how much freight could potentially be shifted focuses primarily on shifting volumes from road to sea. Decomposing the growth in freight transport work over the past years using a shift-share analysis technique shows that maritime transport lost market shares, primarily to road transport.

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  • 26.
    Wehner, Jessica
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Osman, Mary Catherine
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Coronapandemins effekter på det svenska godstransportsystemet: analys av åren 2020 och 20212023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The corona pandemic that took off in Sweden in March 2020 had a profound impact on Swedish society. Restrictions and closures, in Sweden and abroad, changed consumers' purchasing and travel patterns and thus also the actions of companies. The question that the report focuses on is how the Swedish freight transport system was affected by the pandemic in the years 2020 and 2021. More specifically, it is analysed how vehicle movements and freight flows changed during the pandemic, investigated which effects of the corona pandemic had the greatest impact on the Swedish freight transport system and how they affected the system, and studied what significance the pandemic has had for the freight transport system in comparison with previous crises. 

    The study was conducted with both quantitative and qualitative data analysis. The quantitative data analysis is based on five different data sources, two of which are based on GPS data from individual vehicles and ships, respectively, and which only capture their positions and movements. Two sources consist of micro data from Trafikanalys surveys on sea traffic and truck transport, which also contain data on the goods being transported, and one source is annual average daily traffic from the Swedish Transport Administration. The qualitative data analysis includes an interview study with ten actors from the transport industry as well as a literature study. 

    The results of aggregated data show that the differences between 2020 and 2021 and the three previous years are generally comparatively small. In this sense, it can be said that the Swedish freight transport system on a macro level has proven to be robust for the type of disruptions that the corona pandemic entailed. High-resolution data of individual vehicles has made it possible to study rapid or short-term responses for truck transport during the pandemic. For example, in many cases, a rapid initial reduction in trucking has occurred during the initial stage of the pandemic (late March and early April 2020). The interviews indicate that on a micro level, the Swedish freight transport system has proven to be resilient and to have a good ability to adapt to changes, including through automation of processes, digitization, and smart delivery methods. However, drawing lessons for future crises is more difficult because each external, disruptive event is unique, but the freight transport system seems to be well positioned to handle such events.

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