Today, there is no defined national target level regarding increase in bicycling in Sweden. VTI received a governmental assignment to define that. The assignment includes a definition of a target structure and suggestion of indicators as well as a system for monitoring. We have gathered information through literature studies, a workshop, a survey as well as through own analyses of data from national travel surveys. We have limited the definition of cycling to include pedal cycle with or without electric assistance. Simply speaking, the rate of bicycling should double by 2035 and, more specifically, we suggest the following targets: 

• Overall objectives: Cycling in Sweden should increase to improve accessibility, strengthen public health, and decrease the climate and environmental impact. 

• Intermediate target 1: The bicycle share of the total number of travellers in Sweden should increase to 20 percent by 2030 and to 26 percent by 2035, without reducing the share of pedestrians or public passenger transports. 

• Intermediate target 2: The bicycle share of the total transport system work in Sweden should increase to 3 percent by 2035, without reducing pedestrians or public passenger transports. 

• Milestone 1: The total share of bicycle travel in Sweden, shorter than 10 km, should increase to 30 percent by 2030 and to 45 percent by 2035, without reducing the share of pedestrians or public passenger transports. 

• Milestone 2: The total share of bicycle travel for primary school children in Sweden should increase to 40 percent by 2030 and to 50 percent by 2035, without reducing the share of pedestrians.

 In addition, we have suggested seven indicators with associated measures linked to the targets suggested above. The national travel survey could be used to monitor the targets and the annual report by the National Council of Bicycling could preferably be used for monitoring the indicators.

This study investigates the health effects of a nationwide program that provided noise mitigation to dwellings. The analysis uses hospitalization records and a difference-in- differences model that compares residents in treated homes to those with similar at- tributes in untreated homes. Results show that noise mitigation measures lower the risk of cardiovascular diseases by 10% after seven years, with effects driven by reduced risk of hypertension. Health effects are larger among the population exposed to higher baseline noise levels. These findings suggest that implementing similar noise mitigation measures will produce meaningful health benefits.

Traffic noise is a widespread problem that adversely affects health and well-being. A key policy question is how the benefit of noise mitigation compares with the cost. This study estimates the benefits of noise mitigation by its capitalization into property values. Using a dataset on properties considered for a noise mitigation programme, I estimate a difference-in-differences model that compares prices of properties receiving a measure to properties ineligible for the programme. Results show that noise mitigation raised property prices by 10–12 percent. The property price benefits exceed programme investment cost with each $1 spent on noise mitigation generating up to $1.7 in benefits.

Trafikbuller räknas idag som ett av de största miljöproblemen som påverkar hälsa. Vägverket och sedermera Trafikverket har under flera decennier genomfört åtgärder som minskar befolkningens exponering för vägtrafikbuller. Åtgärderna har omfattat både riktade åtgärder i de mest bullerutsatta befintliga miljöerna och åtgärder som genomförts i samband med större väginvesteringsprojekt. VTI har på uppdrag av Trafikverket analyserat hälsoeffekterna av dessa bullerskyddsåtgärder. I studien analyseras effekterna genom att jämföra utvecklingen av sjukdomsrisken för boende som får bullerskydd med riskutvecklingen bland boende som saknar bullerskydd. Resultaten visar att bullerskydd minskar risken för hjärt-kärlsjukdomar. Riskreduktionen uppstår först 5–10 år efter genomförd bullerskyddsåtgärd och beror huvudsakligen på en minskad risk för högt blodtryck. Baserat på dessa resultat sammanställs effektsamband som visar hur risken för olika hjärt-kärlsjukdomar påverkas av bullerskydd och av inomhusbuller. Resultaten baseras på långtidsboende i bullerutsatta bostäder och bör därmed generaliseras till liknande populationer.

This study analyzes how information about noise pollution affects neighborhood composition and households' choice of housing quality. I find that the announcement of a renewal of an airport operating contract induced high-income households to shift away from the zone exposed to airport noise. High-income households who still located in the airport noise zone after the announcement selected homes of better quality. These results help reconcile mixed findings on residential sorting in the literature.

The objective of the thesis is to estimate the health and housing market effects of environmental policies and estimate how these effects are distributed among individuals.

The first essay estimates the health effects of a noise mitigation program that provided dwelling insulation and noise barriers. The analysis is based on hospitalization records and an event study model that compares disease rates for residents in treated homes to residents with similar attributes in untreated homes. Results show that noise mitigation reduced the risk of a cardiovascular disease by 12–14 percent after ten years. Effects are driven by a reduced risk of hypertension and stroke and occur primarily among those with lower income and education levels.

The second essay investigates the impact of the same noise mitigation program on property prices. Using records on sales prices and property attributes in a difference-in-difference model, I estimate the price effect to be 10–12 percent, with larger price effects for homes with poor initial exterior quality. Price gains are smaller for top earners, since they sort to high-quality properties that benefit less from noise mitigation.

The third essay examines how information about pollution affects neighborhood composition and households' choice of housing quality. Combining data on sales prices, property attributes and household demographics, I find that the announcement of an airport concession renewal induced higher-income households to sort away from the area exposed to airport pollution. Higher-income households that located to the area selected homes with better quality. These results help reconcile mixed findings on residential sorting behavior in the literature.

The fourth essay estimates the effect of shipping emission standards on air quality and health. The tightening of the sulfur emission standard reduced concentrations of sulfur dioxide by 22 percent and fine particles by 6 percent. In the subsample with air quality readings, the risk of low birthweight dropped by 7 percent.

This study explores the stricter cap on the sulfur content in marine fuel implemented in seas in north-western Europe in 2015. The analysis is built on a difference-in-differences design that compares outcomes in coastal areas before and after the tightening of the sulfur cap, to the outcomes in control areas over the same period. The results show that the new sulfur cap reduced annual average ambient concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in coastal areas by 22 percent and levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 6 percent, compared to control areas. In the subsample with available air quality readings, the sulfur cap led to a 7 percent reduction in the risk of low birthweight in coastal areas. The estimated improvements provide a benchmark for assessing the benefits of tightening sulfur standards in other settings. © 2021 The Author(s)

Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka i vilken utsträckning flygbolag väljer att ekonomitanka vid olika nivåer av prispåslag på fossilt flygbränsle i Sverige relativt andra länder. Med ekonomitankning avses att en operatör väljer att tanka extra mycket bränsle i det land där bränslet är billigast för att därmed reducera den bränslemängd som behövs till returresan. Vi beräknar graden av ekonomi-tankning vid olika nivåer av prispåslag i en modell som beaktar flygbolagens olika kostnader per flygning, kapacitetsbegränsningar och flygplanens bränsleförbrukning. Studien begränsas till den struktur på marknaden för flyg till och från svenska flygplatser, som förelåg 2019.

The purpose of this report is to compile and assess the research and knowledge base with regards to what determines the choice of mode from a business perspective. The literature review is based on grey research and scientific articles within transport economics and logistics.

The literature identifies a range of factors that can potentially affect the decision-makers in their choice of transport mode. The factors that are reviewed in this survey are those that commonly occur within the literature and often deemed the most relevant.

First, the influence of shipment attributes (value, damage sensitivity, time sensitivity, weight, density and volume) and transport distance are discussed. Surveys and behavioural studies show how the competitiveness of the transport modes depend on shipment attributes and transport distance. For certain shipments, the distance class and commodity type are such that it is only realistic to use a specific mode. Other factors that usually matter for the choice of mode will have little impact on the choice. The exact size of the contestable market is hard to measure, but it is likely that for a significant part of the goods flows on the freight transport market it is only realistic to use one specific transport mode.

Second, the review analyses how the choice of mode is influenced by modal characteristics (transport cost, transport time, reliability, shipment frequency and damage risk). The importance of these characteristics vary across decision-makers, partly according to transport distance and commodity class, but is generally relatively low. In other words, the propensity to switch transport mode as modal characteristics change is relatively low. This may be due to the effects only measuring the impact in the short and medium term, that they are based on changes in a single factor holding other determinants constant or that the analysis miss how decision-makers actually weigh in modal characteristics in their choice of transport mode.

Third, the review discusses how the firms’ choice of distribution and production strategies entails possibilities and limits for its choice of transport mode. This analysis identifies multiple factors that tend to facilitate the choice of multimodal transport chains and direct rail or sea transports. These factors mitigate the effect of multimodal transports’ disadvantages or facilitate the utilization of its advantages. Generally, this entails promoting shipments of larger volumes and economies of scale that can be utilized by rail and sea transports.

Fourth, the transport contract and the relationship between buyers and sellers of transport services are investigated. The contract can facilitate or limit the choice of transport mode by distributing risk and limit the way the firms can perform their operations. A close cooperation between transport buyers and transport companies can make the parties more aware of this possibilities and problems that the transport solution entails.

Despite high ambitions, policies for a modal shift in Europe have largely been unsuccessful. Part of the explanation relates to the inelasticity of freight transport demand. Understanding the demand elasticity of freight transport is important to design and appraise policies for external cost reductions in the transport sector. There have been many studies focused on estimating the elasticity of demand for short-sea shipping, a mode which policy makers have often aimed to strengthen to facilitate a modal shift from road freight. The objective of this review is to build upon the available literature by presenting and comparing estimated elasticities and to demonstrate the state of evidence through the application of two methodological approaches. Our review shows that there is a surprising degree of variation in elasticity estimates, part of which can likely be explained by differing methodological approaches. Applying a deterministic cost-minimising freight transport model and a stochastic multinomial logit approach based on responses from the Swedish Cargo Flow Survey, we demonstrate the inelasticity of Swedish maritime freight flows and provide suggestions for future research and policy discussions. For future studies of maritime transport demand elasticities to arrive at reliable and policy-relevant results, we highlight the need for combined and pluralistic methodological approaches and an increased use of real-world data.

The Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) charges commercial shipping fairway dues and pilot fees. The revenues from these charges account for over 70 percent of the SMA’s total revenues. Every five years, the SMA reviews its charging model. The next upcoming review is due in 2023, at which point a revised charging model is expected to be implemented. Long-term changes to the charging model are expected to be implemented in 2028. VTI, in cooperation with the SMA and the Ports of Sweden, is undertaking the research project “Fairway dues and pilot fees 2028: How to foster competitive and sustainable shipping?”. The purpose of the project is to deliver analyses and results relevant to the decision making regarding short-term changes to the charging model in 2023 and long-term changes in 2028. This report is a partial delivery of the project. 

The purpose of the report is twofold. Firstly, the purpose is to analyze and account for the effects of fairway dues and pilot fees on maritime traffic in Sweden, using previous literature and original empirical analyses of previous fee changes. Secondly, the purpose is to describe the likely consequences of a spectrum of possible future changes to the charging model. This report therefore estimates and presents the likely impacts on different vessel segments following a series of hypothetical fee changes.

The objective of this paper is to provide empirical insights into how shipowners’ fleet deployment decisions are affected by changes in vessel-specific voyage costs. Voyage cost components which are fixed with respect to sailed distance, e.g., port charges or other infrastructure fees, may significantly influence the competitiveness of a maritime transport service, for instance if the level of such costs necessitate a very high degree of capacity utilization. We investigate empirically the effect of charges on the deployment and utilization of vessels in short-sea shipping by using the most recent reform of the Swedish fairway dues system as a natural experiment. Exploiting a stepwise differentiation of fees with respect to size, we utilize a regression discontinuity approach to elicit plausibly causal effects of increased fees on the deployment and utilization of vessels. The results show that increased voyage costs in the form of raised charges lead to affected vessels being deployed on fewer calls but with a slightly higher degree of capacity utilization. Heterogeneity analyses reveal estimates for port calls are larger for small shipowners and for vessels in high-frequency traffic. Overall, the results of the study highlight that charges levied on ships affect the supply structure of short-sea shipping by inducing shipowners to mitigate increased costs through adjusted deployment strategies.

The objective of this paper is to provide empirical insights into how shipowners’ fleet deployment decisions are affected by changes in vessel-specific voyage costs. Voyage cost components which are fixed with respect to sailed distance, e.g., port charges or other infrastructure fees, may significantly influence the competitiveness of a maritime transport service, for instance if the level of such costs necessitate a very high degree of capacity utilization. We investigate empirically the effect of charges on the deployment and utilization of vessels in short-sea shipping by using the most recent reform of the Swedish fairway dues system as a natural experiment. Exploiting a stepwise differentiation of fees with respect to size, we utilize a regression discontinuity approach to elicit plausibly causal effects of increased fees on the deployment and utilization of vessels. The results show that increased voyage costs in the form of raised charges lead to affected vessels being deployed on fewer calls but with a slightly higher degree of capacity utilization. Heterogeneity analyses reveal estimates for port calls are larger for small shipowners and for vessels in high-frequency traffic. Overall, the results of the study highlight that charges levied on ships affect the supply structure of short-sea shipping by inducing shipowners to mitigate increased costs through adjusted deployment strategies.

The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) has been commissioned by the Government of Sweden to “contribute to the creation of knowledge regarding a fast, smart and socioeconomically efficient electrification of the transport sector”. This report describes the current state of electrification of shipping and also policy instruments in Sweden, at the international level and in other countries that have been introduced to accelerate the electrification of shipping. VTI produces additional reports that correspond to the other subjects and reporting dates specified in the Government’s commission.

Shipping is electrified to a very small extent, as only about 340 of more than 98 000 ships in December 2021 had some sort of electric propulsion. Since hydrogen and battery propulsion are associated with higher costs, lower energy density (and large energy losses in the case of hydrogen propulsion) as well as requiring more space compared to conventional propulsion, electrification is best suited for ferries and other vessels operating on shorter, fixed routes with many stops.

The majority of the policy instruments at the international level and in Sweden identified in the report are intended to promote investments in both Onshore Power Supply (OPS) as well as battery and hydrogen propulsion. This applies, for example, to environmentally differentiated port and fairway fees, environmental legislation and support for investments and research. The policy instruments in other countries identified in the report in many cases promote the electrification of individual vessels, for example through targeted investment support for retrofitting of and construction of new ships, and through requirements for electric propulsion in the procurement of publicly owned vessels and public transport. Norway is investing significant amounts in a green transition of shipping, combined with future requirements for low- and zero-emission vessels in Norwegian waters.

With the implementation of the European Commission’s ‘Fit for 55’ legislative proposal, the internalization of emission costs may increase, incentivizing investments in the electrification of shipping. The proposal includes taxation of shipping fuel, an emissions trading system for shipping and carbon dioxide-based fuel requirements.

The extent of competition between maritime freight transport and land-based modes of freight transport is studied using different methods. Previous elasticity calculations with the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods are updated. The elasticity calculations made with the latest model version indicate slightly lower elasticities for shipping compared to the elasticities that were calculated earlier.

The elasticity estimates from an econometric approach using data from the Swedish commodity flow survey from 2016 indicates somewhat higher own-price elasticities.

A systematic review of studies which estimate own-price, cross-price or time elasticities of demand for maritime transport shows that this report’s modelled elasticities are on low in comparison to the international literature. The evaluation of how much freight could potentially be shifted focuses primarily on shifting volumes from road to sea. Decomposing the growth in freight transport work over the past years using a shift-share analysis technique shows that maritime transport lost market shares, primarily to road transport.

Road freight transport is responsible for a considerable amount of congestion, noise and various forms of air pollution and policy instruments that reduce these negative external effects are therefore on top of many policy-makers’ lists. One of the discussed initiatives to reduce these externalities is to increase the maximum permissible weight and length of vehicle combinations. There are however concerns that higher vehicle dimensions will reduce road transport cost per tonne-kilometre and therefore lead both to a modal shift and to induced demand for road transportation.

The extent to which the introduction of longer and heavier road vehicles attracts freight from competing modes is therefore a crucial question. The purpose of this study is to provide empirical evidence on this matter, by analyzing how the modal split in Sweden has developed following the adoption of increases in the maximum permissible vehicle dimensions.

In this study, we utilize official statistics on freight transport by road, rail and water covering the period 1985 to 2013. We first investigate the extent to which LHVs were adopted following the increases in vehicle dimensions in 1990 and 1993. We then construct time-series for the modal split both on the aggregate level and the commodity group-level and analyze the short- and long-run development. 

We show that the share of tonne-kilometres and vehicle-kilometres performed by trucks with a load capacity above 40 tonnes increased substantially in the 1990s, which mainly came at the expense of the vehicles with the lowest capacity. This shows the high degree of incorporation of LHVs in the Swedish vehicle fleet. 

Our analysis of the aggregate modal split shows that both the rail and water shares were decreasing from 1985 up until 1995, when the trend reversed for rail transportation. In 2000, rail had regained the market share it had in 1990 and continued to increase in the 2000. Water transportation kept on losing market shares throughout the period of study. The modal share for road transportation developed much in the opposite way. The road share increased steadily between 1985–1990 and continued this way during most of the 1990s, until it stabilized around 60–65 percent. We also show that road and rail have experienced increases in the level of tonne-kilometres since 1990, which implies that the falling rail share between 1990 and 1995 was driven by higher tonne-kilometer growth rates for road transportation than for rail transportation.

Our aggregated freight statistics do not allow us to attribute the development of the modal split during this period of study to a particular event such as the increase in maximum weights in 1990 and 1993. In particular, it is not possible to trace out substitution patterns between the transport modes. The weight reforms are likely to have mattered for the modal development, but so are the economic recession in the early 1990s, the railway sector reforms of 1996 and other structural changes in the transport market. What we do document is the lack of breaks in modal split trends at the weight reforms in 1990 and 1993. On the contrary, the share of each mode is continuing its long-term development.   

This study combines official statistics on freight transportation and emissions to present the long-run development of the use of longer and heavier road vehicles (LHVs), modal split, road freight efficiency, and GHG emissions and air pollution following the increase in the maximum permissible vehicle weight in Sweden in 1990 and 1993. We find that LHVs were quickly incorporated in the vehicle fleet and that road freight efficiency of the largest vehicles increased after the reforms. There was no discernable break in modal split trends as the modal share for road continued its long-run development. We show that road transportation contributes by far the most to emission costs. The composition of the emissions from road freight changed after the weight reforms, with an increasing share of GHG-emissions.

This study combines official statistics on freight transportation and emissions to present the long-run development of the use of longer and heavier road vehicles (LHVs), modal split, road freight efficiency, and GHG emissions and air pollution following the increase in the maximum permissible vehicle weight in Sweden in 1990 and 1993. We find that LHVs were quickly incorporated in the vehicle fleet and that road freight efficiency of the largest vehicles increased after the reforms. There was no discernable break in modal split trends as the modal share for road continued its long-run development. We show that road transportation contributes by far the most to emission costs. The composition of the emissions from road freight changed after the weight reforms, with an increasing share of GHG-emissions.

Freight transport with all modes plays a crucial role for the functioning of economies while simultaneously being responsible for negative external effects such as congestion, noise and various forms of pollution. The transport system consists of the firms that provide logistics and transport services, their personnel, the different vehicles and energies used and the transport- and ITS-infrastructure.

The challenge is to achieve a sustainable transport system that can cope with increasing freight transport volumes. Total freight transport activity (in tonne-km) is projected to increase by about 58% (1.2% annually) between 2010 and 2050 (European Commission, 2016). Another challenge is to contribute to the goals of the European Union regarding energy efficiency, green-house gas emissions and air pollution/clean air1, as well as fulfilling the 30% improvement of end-to-end logistics performance by 2030 set out by the European Technology Platform Alice (ETP-Alice 2017)2.

A key input for striving towards such a system is policy-makers’ and transport authorities’ solid understanding of the freight transport sector in general, and the influences on the choice of transport solutions and modes in particular. In the light of this, the objective of this handbook is to provide a detailed review of the factors influencing modal choice, describe developments in the transport sector and the data and tools needed to analyse the impacts of trends and policy measures.

The handbook is aimed towards authorities responsible for transport and infrastructure in Europe. Focus is on national road administrations (NRAs), which are organized in different ways in different countries.