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  • 1.
    Alexandersson, Gunnar
    et al.
    Stockholm school of economics.
    Hultén, Staffan
    Stockholm school of economics.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    The liberalization of railway passenger transport in Sweden: outstanding regulatory challenges2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to describe Sweden’s recent reforms to open the railway passenger markets to entry, and to addresses four critical issues for the success of the reforms; the allocation of infrastructure capacity, the provision of maintenance and terminal facilities, the access to rolling stock and the provision of information and ticketing to travelers. The analysis shows that the legislation and regulatory tools that are needed to handle these challenges to a large extent remain to be developed.

  • 2.
    Anderstig, Christer
    et al.
    WSP Analysis & Strategy.
    Berglund, Svante
    WSP Analysis & Strategy.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Andersson, Matts
    WSP Analysis & Strategy.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Congestion charges and labour market imperfections: “wider economic benefits” or “losses”?2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The presence of distortive taxation and agglomeration benefits in the labour market means that there are benefits and losses not captured by standard cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures. Recent theoretical analyses have raised concerns that the labour market effects of congestion charges may constitute considerable losses in the form of reduced aggregate labour income, over and above what is captured by the consumer surplus in the standard analysis of congestion charges – possibly to the extent that congestion charges may reduce aggregate social welfare, contrary to conventional wisdom in transport economics. The sign and size of these effects are an empirical question, however. We investigate this issue by estimating the labour income effects of the Stockholm congestion charges, using an estimated relationship between workplace accessibility and labour income. Results show positive effects on labour income, meaning that the “wider economic benefits” of this system are in fact benefits, not losses. It turns out to be crucial that the model accounts for value-of-time heterogeneity in the income/accessibility relationship and in the calculation of generalized travel costs.

  • 3.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. K2.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. K2.
    A new model for analyzing differentiated fares and frequencies for urban bus services in small cities: Case study for the city of Uppsala2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for welfare evaluation of fare and frequency policies for bus services in smaller or medium-sized cities handling both congestion and crowding in public transport. The model with data for the city of Uppsala. Two scenarios with marginal increases in frequencies and fares are evaluated. Then four main optimal policies are evaluated: fares with unchanged base line frequencies, frequencies with unchanged base line fares, simultaneous optimization of fares and frequencies and finally a scenario called the Pareto scenario where frequencies and fares are optimized subject to the condition that no consumer group (defined by zone, time period, origin-destination pair) should be worse of in terms of generalized cost of trip.

    The results indicate that there are large, seemingly robust welfare gains from reducing public transport supply in Uppsala, especially in the outer zone of the city where reductions compared to the current situation are rather drastic. In comparison, welfare gains from adjusting fares are smaller. As there are large distributional effects in the welfare optimum, introduction of such a policy it is likely to be controversial. However, in an additionally examined scenario, almost all of the potential social welfare gains from the welfare optimal scenario is achieved while no consumer in any zone or time period is worse off compared to present policy. In this scenario, the total number of public transport passengers are increased and emissions are reduced compared to the current situation.

  • 4.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Optimal pricing of car use in a small city: a case study of Uppsala2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Studies of cities which successfully have shifted mode choice from car to more sustainable modes, suggest that coordinated packages of mutually reinforcing policy instruments are needed. Congestion charges and parking fees can be important parts of such packages. This paper aims to examine the introduction of welfare optimal congestion charges and parking fees in a model calibrated to Uppsala, a small city in Sweden. The results suggest that welfare optimal congestion charges in Uppsala are as high as EUR 3.0 in the peak hours and EUR 1.5 in the off-peak. In a rough cost-benefit analysis it is shown that the introduction of congestion charges in Uppsala are welfare improving if operating costs of congestion charges are proportional to city population size (compared to Gothenburg). The model can be used to assess when it is worthwhile to introduce congestion pricing.

  • 5. Carlén, Björn
    et al.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro universitet.
    Liu, Xing
    Örebro universitet.
    Lunander, Anders
    Örebro universitet.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Mellin, Anna
    Havs- och vattenmyndigheten.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Sorkina, Edith
    Göteborgs universitet.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Landbaserade godstransporter, klimat och styrmedel: underlagsrapporter 1-102014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI notat 28-2014 contains the ten underlying reports which is the base for VTI report 831: “Land based freight transports, climate and policy – Summary report”. In VTI report 831, the researchers discuss greenhouse gas emissions from freight transport and how they could be reduced. They address these questions from several different angles. For example, they discuss the introduction of so-called green corridors and propose tools to solve the complex coordination problems that are associated with these corridors. Furthermore, there is a discussion on how to view the climate change impact from shifting road to rail or electrified vehicles on road.

  • 6.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Distributional effects of taxes on car fuel, use, ownership and purchases2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyse distributional effects of four car-related tax instruments: an increase of the fuel tax, a new kilometre tax, an increased CO2-differentiated vehicle ownership tax, and a CO2-differentiated purchase tax on new cars. Distributional effects are analysed with respect to income, lifecycle category and several spatial dimensions.

    All the analysed taxes are progressive over most of the income distribution, but just barely regressive if the absolutely highest and lowest incomes are included. However, the variation within income groups is substantial; the fraction of the population who suffer substantial welfare losses relative to income is much higher in lower income groups.

    The two most important geographical distinctions are between rural and urban areas (including even small towns), and between central cities and satellites/suburbs; these spatial dimensions matter much more for distributional effects than for example whether an area is remote or sparsely populated.

  • 7.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Distributional effects of taxes on car fuel, use, ownership and purchases2018In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130, Vol. 15, p. 1-15Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyse distributional effects of four car-related tax instruments: an increase of the fuel tax, a new kilometre tax, an increased CO2-differentiated vehicle ownership tax, and a CO2-differentiated purchase tax on new cars. Distributional effects are analysed with respect to income, lifecycle category, and spatial dimensions. The analysed taxes are progressive over most of the income distribution, but barely regressive if the highest and lowest incomes are included. However, the fraction of the population who suffer substantial welfare losses relative to income is much higher in lower income groups. We also study revenue recycling schemes; when these are included, the combined effect of tax and recycling is progressive. Considering geographical differences; rural areas carry a larger burden of fuel and vehicle taxes than urban areas, and satellites/suburbs carry a larger burden than central cities. However, rural areas are affected remarkably similar regardless of where in the country they are located.

  • 8.
    Jansson, Kjell
    et al.
    KJ Samhällsekonomi.
    Lang, Harald
    KTH.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Halldin, Chris
    ÅF.
    Bör kollektivtrafik subventioneras?2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report examines motives for subsidisation of local and regional public transport, based on economic theory and numerical calculations, with the main conclusion that it is economically efficient to subsidise public transport and to increase service frequency where demand is high.

    Local and regional public transport in most industrialised countries is subsidised in the range of 40–60 per cent. In Sweden today regional authorities in charge of public transport are subsidising, between 44 and 80 per cent of the costs.

    What we regard as the main economic motive for subsidisation is that public transport is characterised by a positive external effect, which commercial operators ignore (is external) due to their need of a financial surplus. This positive external effect, often called the Mohring-effect, is that the passengers waiting times decrease when frequencies are increased which requires the operations to be subsidised. With the optimal level of price and frequency the variable operating costs cannot be covered with ticket revenue, requiring some external form of supplementary financing.

    The numerical calculations seek welfare optima for price, service frequency and subsidy with regard to invehicle congestion and waiting times. In order to find the optima a combination of a simulation model and an optimisation model has been applied, where the optimisation model was developed within this project.

    Price, frequency and subsidy have been optimised for seven lines with different characteristics in the county of Stockholm, from a bus route low demanded in a rural area to routes with high capacity use: bus line 4 in Stockholm inner city as well as one underground line and one commuter rail line. The methods used are generally useful. They can, however, be expected to yield different results depending on local demand levels, time values and operating costs.

    Compared with the initial situation today the welfare optima suggest lower prices for all seven lines, and higher frequency for most, except for bus lines in areas with less population density and low demand.

    Sensitivity analyses show that assumptions on waiting time valuations and cost of public funds have large effects on optimal subsidy, price and frequency and for welfare change. With lower valuations of wait time and/or with a higher cost of public funds optimal subsidy is lower, optimal price is higher and optimal frequency is lower.

  • 9.
    Jansson, Kjell
    et al.
    Royal Institute of Technology.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Quality incentives and quality outcomes in procured public transport: Case study Stockholm2010In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 29, no 1, p. 11-18Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Gross contracts appear to be the most common contract form for procured public transport in Sweden and elsewhere. This contract form, it has been argued, gives weak incentives for operators to deliver the desired quality level. Therefore many procuring public transport authorities amend contracts with quality incentives. This paper examines how such quality incentives influence quality outcomes with focus on cancelled departures and delays. The main findings are that the introduction of quality incentives are correlated with both increases and decreases of measured quality outcomes. We hypothesise that the results are driven by underlying cost changes for achieving desired quality objectives that exceed the possible revenues from the incentives. In interviews with the Stockholm public transport authority (SL) and some operators, two central observations surface. The first is that there are causes for quality failures that are not solely the responsibility of operators and that these are therefore not fully reached by the incentives, and the second is that the operators believe that they have exhausted what they can do under the current contracts.

  • 10.
    Jansson, Kjell
    et al.
    KTH.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Quality incentives versus quality outcome in procured public transport: case study Stockholm2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Gross contracts appear to be the most common contract form for procured public transport in Sweden and elsewhere. This contract form, it has been argued, gives weak incentives for operators to deliver the desired quality level. Therefore many procuring public transport authorities amend contracts with quality incentives. This paper is probably one of the first studies to examine how such quality incentives influence quality outcomes with focus on cancelled departures and delays. The main findings are that the introduction of quality incentives are correlated with both increases and decreases in measured quality outcomes. We do not think, however, that the incentives in themselves have negative effects but hypothesize that the results are driven by underlying cost changes for achieving desired quality objectives that exceed the possible revenues from the incentives. In interviews with the Stockholm public transport authority (SL) and some operators, two central observations surface. The first is that there are causes for quality failures that are not solely the responsibility of operators and that these are therefore not fully reached by the incentives, and the second is that the operators believe that they have exhausted what they can do under the current contracts.

  • 11.
    Jansson, Kjell
    et al.
    K2.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. K2.
    Variationer i beläggning i tid och rum för tre tåglinjer norr om Mälaren2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Syftet med denna studie är att redovisa beläggningsvariationer i tid och rum för att bedöma om det finns potential för att omfördela vardagsresor från de högst belagda tiderna och delsträckorna till mindre belagda, utan respektive med förändrad prissättning. Därför har särskild vikt lagts på att identifiera beläggningsmönster under vardagar.

    Vi har fått data från SJ om antal resenärer på delsträckor och utbud i form av antal sittplatser, för tre månader under 2015 och 2016. Data beskriver antal resande per avgång i båda riktningar under alla dagar, för tåglinjerna Hallsberg - Stockholm C och Västerås - Stockholm C, samt för linjen Göteborg - Stockholm C, via Hallsberg. Såvitt vi vet har en så här detaljerad redovisning av beläggningsvariationer i tågtrafik inte tidigare gjorts för Sverige.

    Medelbeläggningar för alla avgångstider på varje delsträcka redovisas i form av tabeller och diagram.

    Resultaten är att beläggningarna varierar starkt mellan avgångar under vardagar och måttligt mellan dagar. Resandet är dessutom större i riktning från Västerås mot Stockholm på morgonen än i motsatt riktning och omvänt på eftermiddagen. Detta stämmer väl med statistik över pendling i Mälardalen enligt Mälardalsrådet och ÅF 2016.

    De betydande och regelbundet återkommande beläggnings- och efterfrågevariationerna torde kunna användas för att bedöma om det redan med dagens prisstruktur, utan prisförändringar, finns förbättringspotential genom förändringar av avgångstider och utbud per avgång. En sådan differentiering skulle kunna innebära kapacitetsbesparingar och förbättrad företags- och samhällsekonomiskt resultat, inklusive hänsyn till resenärernas upplevelse av resans standard. Resultaten torde också kunna användas för att analysera det samhällsekonomiska värdet, för resenärernas standard och för finansiellt utfall av ökad prisdifferentiering, för olika tider och för olika delsträckor. Då bör variation av beläggningsgrad och av antal resor över dagen beaktas simultant. Skälet är att kapaciteten för en avgång ofta behöver dimensioneras med tanke på sammanhängande omlopp. I en prissättningsstudie måste såväl utbud per avgång, som variation av beläggningsgrad och av antal resor över dagen beaktas simultant.

    Dessa resultat kan ha stor betydelse i beräkningar av vilken kapacitet som är optimal och vilken prissättning som bör tillämpas på olika avgångar.

     

  • 12.
    Jansson, Kjell
    et al.
    KJ Samhällsekonomi.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Halldin, Chris
    ÅF.
    Samhällsekonomisk analys av förändrad frekvens och taxa för regionaltågstrafik i Mälardalen2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Over the past two decades, both the supply of and the travel by regional trains increased significantly in Sweden. The impact of these increases has so far only to a limited extent been analysed with cost-benefit analysis. The purpose of this study is to use demand simulations to analyse the consequences of hypothetical changes in the frequencies and the tariffs, downwards and upwards, for two regional lines in Mälardalen: Västerås to Stockholm and Hallsberg to Stockholm. The impacts are described in terms of projected changes in demand, travelers 'benefit, income and costs of various modes of public transport, externalities, operators' finances (net revenue), government finance (government revenues minus costs) and the social net. The calculations show that it is financially worthwhile to reduce frequencies, but that an increase would lead to financial losses (of net revenue), and that both higher and lower tariffs would mean financial loss. The cost-benefit calculations show that, as for finances, it is beneficial to reduce frequencies but negative to increase them. Tariff increases lead to losses both financially and socially. The only policy for which the direction of the financial and cost-benefit outcomes are different is a tariff reduction. A tariff reduction is assessed to financially unprofitable, but is calculated to be socially beneficial.

  • 13.
    Johansson, Anna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Carlén, Björn
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Mellin, Anna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Förslag till Nationell plan för transportsystemet 2014–2025: kvalitetsgranskning av underlaget med fokus på samhällsekonomi2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In June 2013, the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) presented a proposal for a new plan for the development of the transport system between 2014 and 2025. This new national transport plan (NTP) was a result of a government commission received in December 2012. The agency Transport Analysis (Trafikanalys) has been commissioned by the government to review the proposal and the associated documents that form the basis for decision about the plan. VTI has assisted Trafikanalys in their review. VTI has mainly focused on the documents describing the so called overall impact assessment, including results from cost benefit analyses, for individual investments. VTI has also studied how the overall impact assessments for individual investments have been considered in the construction of the proposal for a new NTP. One important observation concerning the proposal for a new NTP is that descriptions and motivations for the overall priorities being made are absent. As a result, it is not possible to state whether or not the construction of the proposed NTP follows the given directions from the government. Further, VTI comes to the conclusion that the analyzed impact assessments for individual investments have had a small effect on the composition of the NTP. This is implied by the fact that the number of new investment measures that has been prioritized is extremely low. When it comes to the impact assessments and the cost benefit analyses for individual investments, VTI can see a development towards more comparable analyses by clearly stating used parameters, calculation values, etcetera, and by providing instructions on how to carry out the analyses and how to present the results, a development that is positive. However, despite these standardization efforts, VTI notes that the documentation varies between projects. Steps of the assessment are handled differently, for example there is a variation in how non-priced effects are handled in the analyses, and requested information is missing, for example requested information about which measures are not qualified for the analysis and if there exists any interdependence between the analyzed measure and other proposed measures in the NTP.

  • 14.
    Johansson, Fredrik
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Interaction delay and marginal cost in Swedish bicycle traffic2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We apply the method presented by Johansson (2018) to estimate a volume delay function and marginal cost for bicycle traffic on cycling paths separated from motorized traffic based on point measurements of speed and lateral positions from seven sites in Sweden. The results indicate that a quadratic volume – delay function fits the data well in the observed range of volumes, and that there are significant delays already at volumes far below the capacity due to the heterogeneity of the desired speed over the population. The total marginal cost of delay per unit flow is estimated to €9×10-5 h/km.

  • 15.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    The impact of education on environmental policy decision-making2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Civil servants in governmental agencies regularly both propose environmental policies for the elected politicians and make own decisions. In making these decisions they may be influenced by legal norms, agency policy and culture, professional norms acquired through education as well as personal political preferences. This study tests how students in late stages of professional training in economics, biology and social sciences handle information in order to make a stylized choice of a national nutrient limit for lake water, or choose a program at a municipal level to lower the nutrient level in a local lake. The purpose is to test whether professional norms acquired during academic education and/or the presence of an international standard influences decision-making. We examine three hypotheses. Firstly, students’ political attitudes affect their choice of major, i.e. biology, economics or social sciences, and thereby indirectly their decisions. We find that the distribution of the political values among disciplines is compatible with the hypothesis, which therefore is not rejected. Secondly, a student’s major influences the kind of information they use and consequently the policy choice they will recommend. In plain words we expected biology students to go for environmentally more ambitious (lower) nutrient limits and economics students to prefer economically efficient (higher) levels. The central result is that while economics majors are more likely than biology or social science majors to choose a cost-efficient nutrient limit, the mean and median values of the nutrient levels chosen by the three groups do not differ from one another in a statistically significant way. Economists thus have a higher standard deviation in their answers than the other majors. The third hypothesis is that the presence of an internationally approved standard level for the nutrient content will significantly influence the choice of national nutrient limit. We find that biology students are influenced to set a lower nutrient limit when presented with the standard than otherwise, thereby rejecting the null hypothesis for this group. For students in economics and social sciences, no significant effect is found. Our results have implications for the feasibility of micromanagement in government agencies as recruiting economists to environmental agencies may not be sufficient to ensure economically efficient decisions. The findings also should sound a warning about the skills learned by economics majors at the two largest universities in Sweden: while some students seem familiar with the concepts of optimality and cost efficiency and able to use them, this applies to far from all of them.

  • 16.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    The influence of public transport supply on private car use in 17 mid-sized Swedish cities from 1997 to 20112016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyse the impact of increased public transport supply on private car use using micro data on individuals from 17 mid-sized cities in Sweden. The data is obtained from Swedish administrative registers (tax and odometer), which exists for all Swedish adults and cars, and information of public transport supply, namely bus kilometres supplied.

    In a description of the data we see that that the increase of private Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) per inhabitant stagnate in the sample cities towards the end of the period 1997-2011. Our hypothesis is that changes in the supply of public transport is the main cause for this stagnation. The probability of owning a car and the demand functions for VKT are estimated. The principal finding is that private car use is reduced by increased supply of bus kilometres with an average elasticity ranging from -0.01 to -0.04. This effect is larger in peripheral areas and in larger cities. In small cities the effect is almost nil. We conclude that public transport has an effect on the private VKT of inhabitants but that the impact is relatively small and cannot be the main cause for the stagnating increase of private VKT per inhabitant in the sample cities.

  • 17.
    Lundberg, Mattias
    et al.
    KTH.
    Jenpanitsub, Anchalee
    Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Cost overruns in Swedish transport projects2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost overrun of transport projects is one of the most important problems in transport planning. It also makes the result of the cost-benefit analyses uncertain, thus decreasing their usefulness for decision making. In recent years more emphasis has been put on improving cost calculations and reducing cost overruns, in Sweden and internationally. Still cost overruns have not decreased. We find that the average cost overrun in Swedish road projects is similar to other countries, while it is lower than in other countries for rail. Small projects (< 100 million SEK) have much higher cost overruns than large projects and constitute a large share of total overruns. A project type with large overruns, both in absolute and relative terms, is new rail tracks on existing lines. To improve cost estimates in Sweden, the Successive Calculation method has recently been applied. We find that the variance is significantly lower in these than in actual outcomes, and that the difference is surprisingly small between projects in different planning stages. Another method, Reference Class Forecasting, is demonstrated in two case studies. It results in higher required uplifts. An interesting way forward would be to develop risk-based estimating, based on principal component analysis. To do that, a database needs to be collected, which in turn demands better follow-up procedures.

  • 18.
    Mellin, Anna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Medfinansiering av transportinfrastruktur: blev det mer och bättre?2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    One objective during work with Sweden’s 2010–2021 investment program was to induce local and regional, both public and private, contribution to the financing of investment projects. In this way, it would be feasible to enhance the total volume of spending on new roads, railways and waterways.

    The present report demonstrates that the government has met this objective. It is, however, not straightforward to establish how much extra resources that have been made available. In this report the problems with using different sources and different definitions are highlighted.

  • 19.
    Mellin, Anna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Frivilliga klimatåtgärder på den svenska godstransportmarknaden: en intervjustudie2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This interview study asks both buyers and providers of road freight transport about measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, their costs and effects. The interviewed companies have been selected among companies with explicit climate strategies. The results show that the companies are implementing several voluntary climate measures, but that the companies' own data are insufficient to assess whether they take on significant costs to achieve emission reductions. Further, the information is not enough to assess if the measures result in significant reductions of emissions compared to companies without explicit strategies. We conclude that more credible communication might be able to increase transport buyers' willingness to pay more for less climate impact of transportation.

  • 20.
    Muren, Astri
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Collusion without communication2006In: Information Economics and Policy, ISSN 0167-6245, E-ISSN 1873-5975, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 43-54Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study tacit collusion by investigating experimentally the effect of explicit instructions on how to coordinate prices. We find:

    1. no tacit collusion in triopoly markets even with explicit instructions on how to coordinate
    2. increased tacit collusion with explicit instructions in duopoly markets.

    The results suggest that there are additional factors than the difficulty of finding a collusive pricing scheme, that effectively limit tacit collusion.

  • 21.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Fors, Heather Congdon
    Göteborgs universitet.
    Hansson, Lisa
    Högskolen i Molde, Norge.
    Hammes, Johanna Jussila
    Konjunkturinstitutet.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Politiska krav och tjänstemäns roll för analys av och beslut om styrmedel: Sammanfattande slutrapport2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Sustainable development implies that society’s limited resources should be used efficiently, taking into account the various impacts on society – social, economic and environmental. To achieve established societal goals efficiently, various aspects have to be accounted for in the design of policy measures. Within the EU a Regulatory Impact Assessment, where a cost-benefit analysis is included, needs to accompany all major regulatory initiatives. According to research and different policy assessment, Sweden lacks an established praxis regarding this type of analysis in the area of environmental policy but also in the field of energy and transport. The purpose of this project is to investigate how Sweden uses this type of information in the negotiations that take place within the EU regarding policy proposals but also investigate the reasons for use or non-use. The focus is on what role the organization and the bureaucrats play for the collection of this type of information.

    The overall conclusion that can be drawn from the three sub-studies included in the project, as well as the discussion at the closing seminar, is that this is not an established way of working in the Swedish government system. This can be explained by lack of competence, an established mistrust, management by objectives and lack of an institutional framework for when and how this type of broader impact assessment is to be conducted. At the closing seminar, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency presented that it is now working on a guide to help officials to analyze at an early stage whether there is a need for regulation by society, to initiate the work by asking the question “What is the problem?”. We think that this is a step in the right direction, but we also see that the economists working out in government are often alone or very few and may therefore need different forms of support to develop the work on this kind of, often complex, analysis.

  • 22.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Response to a social dilemma: an analysis of the choice between an economic and an environmental optimum in a policy making context2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Many countries have begun to require benefit-cost analysis as a way of informing key regulatory decisions. However, its actual use seem to be limited, especially in the area of environmental, health, and safety regulation. Reasons for this seem to be lack of knowledge and experience among decision makers and that established quality objectives prevent the use of this type of analysis and deliberation. We present the results from an experiment designed to investigate choice behavior in a public sector context. Students with different academic majors were asked to act as decision makers. There were two choice situations: one in a municipality deciding on an action plan and one in a government agency having to propose a national limit value. In both settings, the outcome that would pass a benefit-cost test would not achieve a natural state of the environment, hence a social dilemma choice situation. We find that a majority of the respondents prefer outcomes that can be considered environmental “optimum” but that there is a difference depending on academic major. The choice context also influences the response behavior and so does the information about an international standard. The latter increases the likelihood to accept alternatives that imply higher costs.

  • 23.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Implementing Optimal Supply of Public Transport: The Choice between Tendering and Targeted Subsidies2016In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 50, no 1, p. 21-38Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper compares two approaches for providing public transport: competitive tendering and targeted subsidies. The subsidy option means that commercial operators charge a fare, and are paid by the public sector principal both per passenger and per bus in service. This is the case since quality (the number of buses) would otherwise be sub-optimal. Under full information, the tendering and targeted subsidies would establish the same welfare-maximising outcome, while subsidies typically are more expensive for taxpayers. The case for targeted subsidies is stronger under an asymmetric information framework.

  • 24.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Optimal supply of public transport: subsidising production or consumption or both?2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper compares two approaches for providing public transport: competitive tendering and vouchers. The functioning of tendering is well known. The voucher alternative means that commercial operators charge passengers a fare and are also paid by the public sector principal for each. The paper establishes that it is also necessary to subsidize quality, here referring to the number of busses. Under full information, the two approaches would result in the same welfare maximizing outcome. Vouchers may be more expensive for taxpayers. The case for vouchers is shown to be stronger under an asymmetric information framework.

  • 25.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Bergman, Mats
    Södertörns Högskola.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    På spaning efter den innovativa myndigheten2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report makes suggestions for how the government can improve on the monitoring of its agencies and the productivity of its activities. The instrument for doing so is to ascertain a regular review of costs in the contract signed between commercial firms which provide services for the public sector, and the final cost for service delivery. By increasing the focus to understand what drives costs and productivity at the micro level, it will become gradually more straightforward for the agencies to start looking for new and cost reducing means for implementation of road construction projects, of subsidised public transport, of child care etc. This is in line with the government’s ambitions to push for more innovations in the public sector.

  • 26.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Bergman, Mats
    Södertörns högskola.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Vart tar pengarna vägen?: om behovet av bättre uppföljning för ökad effektivitet i offentlig sektor2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    It is possible to enhance the cost effectiveness of infrastructure investments in the public sector. In this VTI report it is also stated that the costs for implementing a system which would facilitate the identification of successes and failures are very small. The paper is based on experiences from a research project sponsored by the Swedish Competition Authority. The focus is on cost comparisons throughout investment projects’ life cycle. The cycle starts with the government’s long-term investment program; then follows the (annual) decision by the parliament to allocate appropriations for projects, based on this program; in the next step, and after having tendered construction, a contract is signed with an entrepreneur; and finally the cost realization as registered in the accounting system provides the bottom line cost. It is demonstrated that it is not feasible to track costs through this life cycle, i.e. to compare costs in the early phases with the final costs. Alternative hypotheses which would explain the logic behind the impossibility of follow-ups are suggested. Irrespective of motive, the situation means that the government’s possibility to control the agencies with responsibility for implementing major projects is jeopardized.

  • 27.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Bergman, Mats
    Södertörns Högskola.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm. KTH.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Vart tar pengarna vägen?: Om behovet av bättre uppföljning för ökad effektivitet i offentlig sektor2012In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, no 1, p. 44-56Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Det är inte möjligt att följa kostnaderna för infrastrukturinvesteringar från regeringens investeringsplan och riksdagens budgetbeslut till kostnaden vid upphandlingstillfället och till slutlig resursförbrukning. I uppsatsen diskuteras tänkbara förklaringar. Oavsett anledning är bristen på uppföljning problematisk eftersom både den interna styrningen och regeringskansliets styrning av myndigheten försvåras. Det mesta talar för att det till mycket begränsade kostnader går att utforma system som gör det möjligt att dra lärdomar av både goda och mindre goda erfarenheter och därmed förbättra kostnadseffektiviteten i offentlig sektor.

  • 28.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Regress - en god idé i järnvägssektorn?2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI has been commissioned to analyze the preconditions for, and possible consequences of introducing the possibility of regress in the railway industry. Regress refers to the possibility of anyone that is stricken by financial consequences of train delays caused by someone else, to reclaim these costs. Introducing a system of this nature would not increase costs to the industry but would transfer costs to the culpable party. To the extent that operators and the infrastructure holder adjusts the way in which activities are implemented, the risk for delays may shrink which in the long run may reduce prices and tariffs. A substantial part of the report is spent on the systems currently in place for registering delays and their consequences. It is demonstrated that the infrastructure holder runs a sophisticated system of this nature. The shortcomings of this system, which includes quality problems with registering the cause of delays and in particular shortcomings with respect to the possibility to register trains that are cancelled an/or rerouted, will most probably have to be rectified irrespective of the presence of a system with regress. The data collection system would then be appropriate also for handling regress. Most delays are small, resulting in limited consequences only for affected parties. The consequences of few major disturbances may however, be substantial, but it has not been feasible to make cost estimates of these costs.

  • 29.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Före och efter: uppföljning av en järnvägsinvestering i Oslo2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI has been commissioned to make an ex post evaluation of a new double track between Asker and Sandvika to the southwest of Oslo. This is one out of three parcels in a package of railway investments in this area. The decision to implement the project was taken by the Norwegian parliament, Stortinget, in 2001 and the 9,5 km long section, most of which comprises tunnels, was opened for traffic in 2005. The objective of the investment package was to increase capacity and to reduce travel time with the purpose of attracting new passengers, thereby increasing the market share of public transport. A complementary objective was to improve the local environment by attracting road users to change transport mode. By definition, the project has met the capacity enhancement target. It is also obvious that this has been achieved by a cost overrun of about five percent. This seems to be close to target when comparing with experiences of other projects. The line was also opened for traffic on time. The major challenge for the ex post assessment has been to aquire information about patronage, both before the project initiation and after the operations have started. The report concludes that the type of information necessary to perform ex ante assessments of the welfare properties of a project is of the same nature as required for any follow up. This should be used as a point of departure for formulating a strategy for future information collection. It is thus reason to consider the sequence of initial information gathering, the subsequent production of an estimate of the social welfare of a project, the political decision to build, the construction phase and a subsequent follow up as parts of a continuous process of decision making and learning in order to increase the probability for that future decisions are based on the best possible material.

  • 30.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Pettersson, Stefan
    Railrex.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Strategi för Transportstyrelsens marknadstillsyn över järnvägssektorn2010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this report is to analyse Transportstyrelsen's (the Swedish Transport Agency´s) remit in it's capacity as rail market regulator and the distribution of responsibilities between the government, Transportstyrelsen and infrastructure managers (in particular Banverket (the Swedish Rail Administration)) against the background of the forthcoming liberalisation of railway passenger transport. The most important observation is that the forthcoming liberalisation may lead to a need for expanded powers for Transportstyrelsen to oversee and intervene in parts of the railway markets in addition to railway undertakings and infrastructure managers. Furthermore the report observes that the procedures of establishing time tables will require a substantial development which in turn will require a developed competence in Transportstyrelsen oversight as well. It is also important to consider the connection between pricing of time table slots and the general pricing of track use. Concerning the management of the regulation we emphasise that it should aim at being predictable for the interested parties and to be transparent to a high degree. For this purpose we point to the importance of a clear policy and an open three year plan for the regulatory tasks.

  • 31.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Höghastighetsjärnvägar - ett klimatpolitiskt stickspår2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Through all shades of political opinion there seems to be a perception that large-scale investments in high-speed railways is a climate policy necessity. Against this background this report studies whether "Götalandsbanan" - a high-speed railway between Stockholm and Göteborg via Skavsta, Jönköping and Landvetter - is a cost-effective way of reducing emissions of carbon dioxide. Our work is based on a report that the Swedish National Rail Administration commissioned from the WSP consultancy. Our examination of the supporting material that has been prepared leads to three main conclusions: - Investment in Götalandsbanan in the form studied is not socially cost-effective. This does not rule out that implementing other and less costly project forms could be justified. - Rail investments are not cost-effective climate policy instruments. The reason is that despite great investment costs it is only possible to affect a very small part of carbon dioxide emissions from the transport market. One way of illustrating this conclusion is that the benefit must be SEK 8 per kilo carbon dioxide that the project would contribute to eliminating, for the project's cost-effectiveness to be changed from minus to plus. This corresponds to a petrol price of more than SEK 30. - The economic analysis of Götalandsbanan that has been presented by the Swedish National Rail Administration is of a high standard in many respects. Nonetheless, some shortcomings remain. We have pointed out deficiencies in statistical reporting of rail transport, calculations of initial capital expenditure and calculations of the costs of accidents, environmental impact and wear as well as corresponding taxes. It is not a good state of affairs to approve investments in the region of SEK 100 billion on the basis of analyses that are unclear on these points. Consequently, results reporting must be developed to make the decision-making data more transparent. This applies to both analyses of Götalandsbanan and infrastructure projects in general.

  • 32.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Offentlig-privat samverkan kring infrastruktur: en forskningsöversikt2007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    The Parliament's Standing Committee on Transport and Communication decided in Februry 2007 to procure a state-of-the-art report with respect to Public Private Partnerships (PPP). The purpose was to let committee members share experiences and research results from PPP projects that have been implemented elsewhere in Europe and overseas, well before that the Parliament is to take a decision on the future use of such contracts in spring 2008. VTI was commissioned to do this job, and the present report provides the conclusion from the mission. The document demonstrates that a transfer from today's model for paying for infrastructure - i.e. that the public sector budget is paying all costs during the year(s) that an investment is built - to a PPP model and thereby making down-payments from the budget over a contract period to pay for the costs, creates some scope for increased spending in this or other sectors during a transition period. The possibility to spend extra will, however, gradually shrink once the volume of down-payments grows. PPP is therefore not a new instrument for infrastructure financing. Provided that the contract between the public sector procurer and the private sector agent (the entrepreneur) is appropriately crafted, PPP may however improve cost efficiency in the construction industry. This is particularly pertinent in view of the industry's weak productivity performance, with virtually zero growth of output per hour of labour input during the last ten years. The few ex post studies that have been made of the outcome of PPP indicate that such projects are built on time or even opened before schedule, and that cost overruns are fewer than for standard projects. It has however been difficult to document actual cost savings. The report identifies a number of aspects that should be accounted for when the contract between the public and private sector is designed.

  • 33.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Ahlberg, Joakim
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Marknadsöppning – och sen?: Samhällsekonomisk analys av förutsättningarna för en stärkt kollektivtrafik2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Swedens market for public transport, both bus and rail, was opened for entry in January 2012. Any fit, willing and able operator is entitled to provide services on a commercial basis. During the first year after market opening, little has happened. The report concludes that it is not reasonable to expect much further entry. The reason is that a commercial entrant has to compete with the existing service provider who only charges the customers half the costs for running buses or trains. The rigidity of the current tendered system and the gross cost contracts used makes it relevant to consider alternatives to tendering. A comprehensive voucher approach – which inter alia is used in Sweden’s schooling system as well as in primary health care – would be one option. In this system, operators are given complete freedom to design routing, frequency, charges etc. The public sector intervenes by way of a subsidy per passenger, meaning that the (value of) demand from the perspective of an operator is higher than from the users’ point of view. The report makes a first analysis of this system in order to understand the incentives that this system design would create. The overall conclusion is that a broader study which in more detail is able to address issues which have not been handled in this very preliminary analysis should be commissioned. The natural next step, if a second desk study would point to a welfare enhancing potential of the system, would be to test the approach under controlled circumstances, for instance in one of the regions.

  • 34.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Andersson, Mats
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Hansen, Fredrik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Isacsson, Gunnar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Infrastrukturpolitik på samhällsekonomisk grund2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A government committee, Trafikverksutredningen, has commissioned VTI to review the national infrastructure policy regarding construction and maintenance of roads and railways as well as concerning policies to ascertain its appropriate use. Based on our review, recommendations are given relative to the appropriate organisation of a future infrastructure agency and the ways in which responsibilities for different types of decisions can be split between the political and administrative/agency level in order to enhance efficiency in the use of scarce resources. The report has also been published as Appendix 2 to the official committee report (SOU 2009:31).

  • 35.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Andersson, Matts
    WSP.
    Kollektivtrafikens roll för regeringens mål om fossiloberoende fordonsflotta2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish government has an ambition to make its vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels by 2030. As a platform for a strategy, the government has appointed a committee which is instructed to consider which policy instruments may be used to achieve this target at lowest social costs. Using the domestic acronym, this is the FFF committee. One option for this end is to make public transport attractive to a wider community. In that way, more people would be induced to switch from private cars, thereby reducing the emissions of fossil fuels. VTI has been appointed to make an assessment of this possibility, and the present report is our final report.

  • 36.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Hultén, Staffan
    Handelshögskolan.
    Alexandersson, Gunnar
    Handelshögskolan.
    The Liberalisation of Railway Passenger Transport in Sweden2013In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 47, no 2, p. 307-312Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to describe Sweden’s recent reforms to open the railway passenger markets to entry, and to address how the reforms have handled four critical issues for the success of the reforms: the allocation of infrastructure capacity; the provision of maintenance and terminal facilities; the access to rolling stock; and the provision of information and ticketing to travellers.

  • 37.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Johansson, Anna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Tidtabelläggning: principer, tumregler och utfall2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Transport Agency (Transportstyrelsen) has commissioned VTI to assist in deepening the understanding of the way in which existing railway infrastructure can be efficiently used. The assignment also includes giving advice to the agency’s regulatory tasks within the railway industry. This includes the oversight of the process from initial applications of train paths submitted by train operators to the The Swedish Traffic Agency’s (Trafikverket) subsequent decision about a train plan for the upcoming year and also the ad hoc process taking place from this time to each day of the timetable.

    The report comprises three separate mimeos. The first details the principles and rules-of-thumb used during the scheduling process. The second memorandum focuses one particular aspect of the conflicts in demand for track access, namely the need for access to the infrastructure for maintenance purposes and the consequent need to close down tracks for train operations during this period of time. The third and final mimeo seeks to assess the outcome of the process. In particular, a comparison is made between applications and final allocation of time table slots. Two measures of excess demand are used; the number of trains completely denied access and the adjustment of departure-arrival times relative to initial demand specification.

  • 38.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Fyrstegsprincipen i praktiken: tre underlagsrapporter för Riksrevisionens granskning av transportpolitiken2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Sweden’s parliament and its government have access to a number of means for implementing overarching policies, inter alia in the transport sector. There is a broad consensus that the four step principle should provide the basic logic for choice of appropriate means for implementation of a policy which is supposed to achieve political objectives at lowest costs to society at large.

  • 39.
    Odolinski, Kristofer
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Price elasticities of demand for (garage) parking in Stockholm2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    There is scope for generating welfare effects by changing parking fees, where knowledge on price elasticities are central elements in the implementation of an efficient parking policy. In this paper, we estimate price elasticities of demand for five parking garages in the central business district of Stockholm, using transaction data and a price increase implemented in January 2017. The econometric results for the purchased parking hours show an average elasticity estimate at -0.60, while the effect on the decision to park is -0.45. These elasticities vary for the different parking garages, showing that there is a considerable heterogeneity between garages, even within the central business district, which needs to be considered for an efficient parking policy. Based on our estimated elasticity for garage parking (-0.60) and a willingness to pay a premium for curbside parking in previous research, we calculate a proxy for the elasticity of curbside parking in Stockholm, which is found to be -0.39.

  • 40.
    Olsson, Nils O. E.
    et al.
    Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    Nyström, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Governance regimes for large transport infrastructure investment projects: Comparative analysis of Norway and Sweden2019In: Case Studies on Transport Policy, ISSN 2213-624X, E-ISSN 2213-6258Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The two Nordic countries Norway and Sweden have launched governance regimes for the early phases of transport infrastructure investments after experiencing frequent cost overruns and low cost-benefit ratios. This study seeks to find out if these governance regimes have reduced the escalation of costs from early estimates to finalized projects and influenced the choice of projects away from those with lower benefit to cost ratios. We have compared governance regimes for major transport infrastructure investments in the two countries and examined the development and content of quality assurance activities, the involvement of internal and external parties, their duties and responsibilities, their stage gate models, and how decisions are made. The findings are that both countries have introduced formalizations of their governance regimes that mandate project reviews during the planning process and quality assurance, both of which have increased early cost estimates. One difference was that in Norway, the Ministry of Finance manages the quality assurance scheme and imposes external quality assurance requirements, while Sweden has no corresponding ministerial oversight. Therefore, on the one hand, the process is more strictly formalized in Norway, but on the other hand, cost-benefit ratios appear to have more weight in Sweden. Furthermore, although both countries have done several ex post evaluations, neither country has introduced a formalized ex post evaluation process allowing for systematic examination of the causes of cost overruns and low benefit to cost ratios. Even so, politicians may manoeuvre projects with lower benefit to cost ratios around the governance systems in both countries. Finally, some projects in both countries still have experienced significant cost escalations despite these processes.

  • 41.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Cykelflödesvariationer i Stockholm och Göteborg: delrapport inom SAMKOST 32018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this project is to clarify the possibilities and the need for a pilot study aimed at measuring the marginal cost of congestion on bicycle paths. The goal of the measurements are exclusively to quantify the value of the delay caused by one further cyclist being present on the bicycle path. Ultimately, the goal is to be able to evaluate measures to broaden or otherwise improve the bicycle infrastructure.

    This memorandum describes variations in cycle flow over a longer period of time, over one year and over a day (during months and days with high flows) in Stockholm and Gothenburg, with the aim to estimate when measurements should be made of the extent and intensity of significant congestion on bicycle paths.

    Cycle flows vary by approximately a factor of 4 in Stockholm during the year in places with large flows and slightly less in Gothenburg, about a factor of 3. During peak hours, cycling flows show large variation during a day with shorter periods of high flows in the morning and afternoon.

    The presence of costly congestion can therefore be expected to be quite short in Sweden's two largest cities. An example indicates that at 20 percent of all bicycle passages across the Liljeholmen bridge in Stockholm, the cyclist experiences high levels of presence of other cyclists. However, this example is not claimed to be representative either this or other locations in the inner city of Stockholm.

  • 42.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Empiriska analyser av bilanvändning och bilägande i Sverige / Empirical analyses of car ownership and car use in Sweden2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    The purpose of this report is to describe and analyse how individual car ownership and car use in Sweden are affected by costs, income, sex and the place of residence of the individual and further to investigate whether inhabitants of rural areas close to urban areas or sparsely populated areas are more sensitive to costs and income with regard to car ownership and car use than other individuals in Sweden. The report uses register data for the whole of the Swedish population, meter readings from the vehicle inspection, and the area categorisation of the National Rural Development Agency: urban area, rural area close to an urban area and sparsely populated area. Some of the new descriptive results are that: inhabitants of urban areas own and use cars to a lesser extent than inhabitants of rural areas. The difference in driven distances, however, is small. The difference between rural areas close to urban areas and sparsely populated areas is less. In the model analyses we find small differences between the area types in the sensitivity of the use of privately-owned cars due to changes in disposable income and costs. In the analysis of the model for individual car ownership the most important result is that car ownership in Sweden is slow to change. The most important factor to explain car ownership in a particular year is whether the individual owned or did not own a car the previous year. Inhabitants of rural areas are slightly less inclined to cease car ownership and more inclined to increase car ownership to several cars compared with comparable individuals in urban areas. Men are also considerably more inclined to acquire a car when they do not own one than women, and this probability is greater in rural areas for both sexes. Changes in income are estimated to have negligible effects on car ownership. Changes in cost have both expected and unexpected effects on the likelihood of car ownership levels.

  • 43.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Inträdeshinder och flaskhalsar för en öppen marknad för persontransporter på järnväg2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this report is to assess the likelihood of expansion of supply from established or new operators in the Swedish passenger rail market, what may be hindrances to such developments and to analyze possible alternative measures to remove entry barriers or at least reduce their influence. Three major obstacles for expanded supply are identified. Firstly, the only a few passenger railway services Swedish are profitable. Secondly, all potential challengers emphasize the general uncertainties and high cost of acquiring rolling stock for the purpose of servicing new lines. Thirdly, several operators that have tried entering suggest that the process of allocating track capacity is time consuming and bureaucratic. For these hinders the report suggests that increased track charges are motivated and that this measure can alleviate some of the pressure on capacity. For the availability of rolling stock several measures are suggested, the most important perhaps being, the state giving guarantees for value loss.

  • 44.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Lärande kostnadskalkylering och efterfrågeprognosering: kvantifiering av kostnads- och prognosrisk2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Syftet med detta projekt är att sammanställa och jämföra de kostnadskalkyler och prognoser avseende trafikflöden som ligger till grund för samhällsekonomiska kalkyler i planer med utfall, samt att föreslå metoder och peka ut behov av data för fortsatt arbete.

    I denna studie har de efterkalkyler som redovisats i Vägverkets och Banverkets årsredovisning för åren 1996 till 2009 använts. Dessa har blivit föremål för granskning och kritik från Riksrevisionen (2010 och 2011), vilket vi återkommer till. Med denna reservation har efterkalkylerna använts för att bedöma förkalkylernas träffsäkerhet. De förkalkyler som använts är de kostnader som redovisats i planbeslut.

  • 45.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Modelling effects of policy instruments for sustainable urban transport in Scandinavia2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to review the modelling used for the planning of infrastructure and design of policy instruments for transport in cities in Scandinavia, and to survey elasticities of transport demand with respect to policy instruments and important background variables. There are a number important objectives governing policy, maximizing welfare, reducing CO2and other emissions, curbing congestion on roads and crowding in public transport in cities and improving the conditions for walking and cycling.

    The current transport demand models in Sweden and Norway were originally built to serve the purpose of forecasting for national infrastructure planning, primarily outside cities. They were not designed to represent the adaption of car use, congestion on roads or crowding in public transport or the effects of improving of conditions for walking and cycling. Therefore, recent discussions on the needs to develop planning for cities has raised these issues. The central results from the survey of effects are that, car use is shown to be more price sensitive in urban than in rural areas, and larger the larger the city. Although the benefits of a given congestion charging system are considerably and non-linearly dependent on initial congestion levels, traffic effects and adaptationcosts are surprisingly stable across transport system modifications.

    The demand for car travel is largely insensitive to supply of public transport and on baseline congestion, and therefore on the total benefit of the charges. For public transport both population size and population density appear to independently influence public transport use. The estimated elasticities being 0,48 and 0,17 respectively. What is not obvious is when supply could improve net welfare. Both an increase in the population and the following crowding can motivate an increase in frequency by the increased net welfare. Large dense cities with more public transport are found to have less car use. The form of the city and its long time use of strategies to facilitate public transport use also decreases the market share of car travel and increases the share of public transport. In large cities density is also found to be correlated with less car and energy use in many cross-sectional studies. The idea that density could induce less car use and CO2-emissions is however challenged by a smaller number of longitudinal studies showing smaller effects from density to car use and CO2-emissions.

  • 46.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    The role of ticket retailing in railway regulation2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    European railway regulation proceeds on the assumption that increased competition among railway operating companies will yield lower prices and better services for passengers. At the same time legislators are aware that insufficient provision of information on the supply of services and time consuming procedures for through ticket reservations may erect a substantial obstacle and reduce the demand for services. This paper compares how the regulatory regimes in Sweden, Great Britain and Germany handle the provision of through ticketing and how the different approaches have been justified. The analysis proceeds from official policy documents and examines law texts and the policies of organisations in charge of providing tickets to passengers. The main findings are that not only do the regulations of ticket provision have different forms in these three countries; they also differ on how important a common neutral system for ticketing is professed to be for a well-functioning market. Therefore the emphasis on a common and neutral system for ticket provision is also very different in the three countries. Great Britain has a compulsory system for neutral provision of tickets, Germany has a system provided by the incumbent and Sweden has a formally neutral system which is owned and organised primarily by the incumbent with voluntary association for entrants. The degree to which common ticketing has been justified also varies. So far we have found no more elaborate analyses on the welfare consequences of operating common ticketing systems or the lack of such systems.

  • 47.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Vilken grad av prisdifferentiering?: En översikt av analyser av optimala taxor i kollektivtrafiken2016Report (Other academic)
  • 48.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Andersson, Matts
    WSP group.
    Increased patronage for urban bus transport with net-cost contracts2010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Simulations of net cost contracts augmented with a subsidy per passenger for public transport bus operators in Sweden indicate that such contracts may shift the operators profit maximising price and frequency combination in a direction that yields an increased patronage. The calculations suggest that a subsidised increase in patronage is welfare improving. The simulations unfortunately also indicate that such contracts may become very costly for the public transport authority. In a system with franchised contracts we however suggest that a large part of these costs may be recovered as a bid for the contract. In this study we can not calculate all the potential adaptations that the operator may undertake to optimise the supply. We therefore conjecture that a net cost contract augmented with a subsidy may well be a reasonable policy to achieve increased patronage.

  • 49.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Creutzer, Christopher
    Swedish Competition Authority / Konkurrensverket.
    Household car ownership in urban and rural areas in Sweden 1999–20082014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies household car ownership in urban and rural areas in Sweden using register data for all adult Swedes from 1999 to 2008. Data for individuals are linked to members of the same household, allowing us to estimate models of households. Multinomial ordered probit models for households’ private car ownership in Sweden are estimated and used to compare urban and rural households with respect to sensitivity of car ownership. The central result from comparing urban and rural households is that rural households are less likely to exit from car ownership and more likely to increase car ownership than comparable urban households. This supports the notion that rural households are more dependent on their cars than urban households. Rural car ownership is also more sensitive to fuel price changes and the number of adults in the household. Compared with other countries, our results indicate that Swedish households’ car ownership is very resistant to change. The status of the previous year’s car ownership as well as car ownership status in 1999 is dominant factors for household car ownership in 2008. Households with young adults are more likely to cease their car ownership and households with senior members are only slightly more likely to cease car ownership than middle-aged households. Households with higher income are less likely to cease car ownership then lower income households and more likely to increase their car ownership. Permanent income, defined as the average income over the period, has a larger positive impact on car ownership than current income.

  • 50.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Utvecklingen på telemarknaderna efter regelreformerna2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In 1993, the Telecommunications Act formally opened the market for telecommunications in Sweden for entry. After 10 years, it was replaced by the Electronic Communications Act (LEK) both to implement a set of EU Directives, and to adapt to technological developments and changing market conditions. The purpose of this study of the telecommunications market in Sweden is to follow up the political objectives for the regulatory reforms in 2003 formulated in the relevant bills and also present an account of the impact of the reform from a consumer perspective. In our synopsis we emphasized that an important part of an assessment of a regulatory reform is to assess the counterfactual technology and market developments that could have taken place without the regulatory reform. This basically means to assess the extent to which an observed sequence of events depends on the regulatory reform and to what extent it depends on other circumstances. This memorandum examines how prices, demand, market shares and investment in telephony and broadband developed after 2003. It also, to some extent, describes how the regulation changed and evolved. Today, the regulations to be analyzed are applied in seven producer markets where telecom companies trade with each other, while the impact of the regulatory framework is observed at user markets i.e. the end customer.

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