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  • 1.
    Bergström, Anna
    et al.
    Karlstads universitet.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Modeling passenger train delay distributions: evidence and implications2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper addresses the lack of reliability within the Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time in the network.

    Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size, but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and expected delay over different time scales.

  • 2.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Estimating Traffic Demand Risk: A Multiscale Analysis2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 10, p. 1741-1751Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the timescale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950-2005. In general, rail transport shows a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transport. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice between public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.

  • 3.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm. Örebro University.
    Fatal Connections: Socioeconomic Determinants of Road Accident Risk and Drunk Driving in Sweden2013In: Journal of Safety Research, ISSN 0022-4375, E-ISSN 1879-1247, Vol. 46, p. 49-65Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Problem: In recent years a considerable number of papers have examined socioeconomic factors influencing the number and the outcome of traffic accidents. There is however more research needed to confirm the previous results in order to generalize them and a need to examine additional factors that might have an impact.

    Method: This paper uses both regional panel data and national time series data combined with filtering techniques to determine what factors influence the number of accidents, the accident outcome and detected drunk driving.

    Results: Using time series data, it is found that the number of traffic fatalities increases for both per capita and per person kilometer travelled during economic booms. This indicates that the death risk rises not only because of increased mileage or motorization during booms. Using panel data, it is found that traffic fatalities decrease with unemployment, whereas personal injuries increase on a per capita basis with youth and the number of cars. In contrast to property crimes and other types of crime, drunk driving in Sweden decreases during economic contractions. Discussion: The main policy conclusion from our results is that resources for safety measures should not be spend uniformly across time and space. Instead, safety measures should be concentrated to areas with a high share of young people and to periods with low unemployment. The results of the time series analysis suggest that factors other than increased mileage during booms contribute to the higher rate of fatalities during good times. Increased risk taking, such as drunk driving, might be an explanatory factor.

    Impact on Industry: The results might be interesting for safety-oriented car and truck producers as well for developers of traffic safety products, since the results indicate in what regional markets and under what market conditions their products are most needed.

  • 4.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    The Impact of a Novel Preventive Care Service on the Incidence of Hip Fractures Among the Elderly2010In: Journal of Public Health, ISSN 2198-1833, E-ISSN 1613-2238, Vol. 18, no 5, p. 467-471Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We wanted to determine the impact of a novel preventive care service (PCS) employing home visits by non-physician experts on the incidence of hip fractures among the elderly. We estimated an ARMA model for the time series of hip fractures in the Höganäs municipality in Sweden for the years 1987-2008. By means of intervention analysis and out of sample forecasts, we estimated the short- and long-term impact of the novel preventive care service.

    We found that there is a statistically significant short-term impact of the PCS with about 8.27 fewer incidents of hip fracture. This corresponds to a long-term effect of about 3.74 fewer incidents of hip fracture per year. Since we found a statistically highly significant impact, we concluded that there was an effect on the number of hip fractures. Considering the magnitude of the effect, we found that the examined preventive care service is an economically efficient measure.

  • 5.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Karlstad University, Department of Economics.
    The Impact of Economic Fluctuations on Crime: A Multiscale Analysis2011In: Applied Economics Letters, ISSN 1350-4851, E-ISSN 1466-4291, Vol. 18, no 2, p. 179-182Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article we use a wavelet-based approach in order to analyse the periodicity in the relationship between economic fluctuations and different types of crime. All examined types of crime share seasonal behaviour with variations of real economic activity. Removing the intrayear dynamics, we find that the effect of real economic activity is different between different types of crime. We conclude that property crimes, violence crimes and sex crimes are countercyclical. The reverse is true for both alcohol/drug-related crimes and economic crimes, because there is a highly significant increase of these types of crime during economic expansions.

  • 6.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    To Kill a Real Option: Incomplete contracts, real options and PPP2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 8, p. 1359-1371Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper is concerned with the implications of public-private partnership agreements for the execution of expansion options in road infrastructure. More specifically, it analyzes the expansion of an existing two-lane road in Sweden, and examines the real options created by an intermediate type of road with three lanes. Interpreting the results from real option analysis in the light of incomplete contract theory, this paper finds that external congestion costs might necessitate public ownership to ensure a social optimal outcome in public-private partnerships.

  • 7.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Haglund, Alexander
    Karlstad University, Department of Economics.
    Consumer Value of Fuel Choice Flexibility: A Case Study of the Flex-Fuel Car in Sweden2013In: European Transport Research Review, ISSN 1867-0717, E-ISSN 1866-8887, Vol. 5, no 4, p. 207-215Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Purpose

    This paper examines the value of fuel choice flexibility derived from a flex-fuel engine.

    Method

    Based on the stochastic properties of fuel prices, we use Monte-Carlo simulation in order to value the option to switch fuel.

    Results

    Our findings indicate a considerable value of fuel choice flexibility, ranging between 7,500 and 37,800 SEK, depending on the underlying stochastic process we assume that fuel prices follow. This can be compared to the state subsidy of 10,000 SEK provided until recently for buying a flex-fuel car.

    Conclusion

    Compared to an environmentally friendly pure ethanol strategy, the switching strategy is considerably less costly, about 2,000–19,000 SEK depending on the assumed underlying stochastic process, a fact that is important to take into consideration with environmental policy.

  • 8.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    et al.
    Örebro Universitet.
    Svensson, Mikael
    Karlstad Universitet, Örebro Universitet.
    Good Times are Drinking Times: Empirical Evidence on Business Cycles and Alcohol Sales in Sweden 1861-20002010In: Applied Economics Letters, ISSN 1350-4851, E-ISSN 1466-4291, Vol. 17, no 6, p. 543-546Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article studies the relationship between the business cycle and alcohol sales in Sweden using a data set for the years 1861-2000. Using wavelet-based band-pass filtering, it is found that there is a pro-cyclical relationship, i.e. alcohol sales increases in short-term economic upturns. Using moving window techniques, we see that the pro-cyclical relationship holds over the entire time period. We also find that alcohol sales are a long-memory process with nonstationary behaviour, i.e. a shock in alcohol sales has persistent effects.

  • 9.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    et al.
    Örebro Universitet, Karlstads Universitet.
    Svensson, Mikael
    Örebro Universitet, Karlstads Universitet.
    The Impact of Real Options on Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions2009In: Journal of Health Economics, ISSN 0167-6296, E-ISSN 1879-1646, Vol. 28, no 3, p. 563-569Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Public investments are dynamic in nature, and decision making must account for the uncertainty, irreversibility and potential for future learning. In this paper we adapt the theory for investment under uncertainty for a public referendum setting and perform the first empirical test to show that estimates of the value of a statistical lite (VSL) from stated preference surveys are highly dependent on the inclusion of the option value. Our results indicate an option value of a major economic magnitude. This implies that previously reported VSL estimates, used in societal benefit-cost analysis of health investments, are exaggerated.

  • 10.
    Krüger, Niclas A.
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Precautionary and operative costs of freight train delays: a case study of a Swedish grocery company2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    There is limited knowledge about the valuation of reduced transport time variability for freight transports. This paper analyses a Swedish grocery company’s transports by shuttle train, as a case study. The distribution of the train arrival time is analyzed; it is shown that the 10 per cent worst delays contribute to more than half of the total train delays. Type and amount of the firm’s precautionary and operative costs are identified and calculated. It is shown that it is possible to get estimates for the cargo component of the VTTV (Value of Transport Time Variability) valid for the specific company based on the precautionary costs, the operative costs for delays and for the costs for cancellations separately or in combination. Further case studies are advocated in order to cover the whole freight transport market and study the differences between different segments of the market.    

  • 11.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Fakhraei Roudsari, Farzad
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
    Spatial, Temporal and Size Distribution of Freight Train Delays: Evidence from Sweden2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyzes how freight train delays are distributed with respect to size, location and time of their occurrence. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data covering all freight train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009 in Sweden. Moreover, the link between capacity usage and expected delay is analyzed using the fact that demand fluctuates on different time scales, especially due to the economic chock in 2009. Since the distribution of delays on different scales describe reliability and vulnerability in the rail transport system, the results have potentially important policy implications for rail investment appraisal

  • 12.
    Krüger, Niclas
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Jong, Gerard de
    Significance, Den Haag.
    Halse, Askill
    Transportøkonomisk Institutt, TØI.
    Killi, Marit
    Transportøkonomisk Institutt, TØI.
    Value of freight time variability reductions: results from a pilot study performed on behalf of the Swedish Transport Administration2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Unreliable rail transports are the main contributor to the transport time variability. The Swedish Transport Administration registered around 40 000 delay hours in 2012, which corresponds roughly to 20 million tonne-delay-hours, given that 500 tonnes per train is assumed to be the average load. This figure is 10 times higher than the corresponding figure for road transports. Information about the reliability of the rail transports and how different policy measures influence i.e. the number and length of delays and or the risks for delays has been limited. The former has been improved in recent years but the latter is still a problem. The lack of underlying data is one reason why the recommended Value of reduced transport time variability (VTTV) have only been applied in a few rail infrastructure projects. Nevertheless, the industry complains about the extensive problems caused by train delays or cancellations and that the reduction of these problems is not taken into account in a proper way in the cost benefit analyses (CBA). Another question that is debated is how much more high value products would be transported by rail if the rail transports would be more reliable. The value of the outgoing goods transported by road (SEK 9.5 per kg) is about three times the value of the outgoing goods transported by rail or rail in combination with other modes (SEK 3.7 per kg). The Transport Administration are aware of the shortcomings and has among others funded this pilot study that studies different approaches to calculate the VTTV for the cargo transported. The following parts were carried out in the pilot study: • Part One presents the Stated preference studies (SP-studies) to calculate VTTS (Value of Transport Time Savings) and VTTV that have been carried out recently in The Netherlands and Norway. Part One also discusses to what extent the VTTV calculated in the Dutch and Norwegian SP-studies can be transferred to Sweden. It is shown that the VTTV calculated in the Dutch and Norwegian SP-studies in principle can be transferred to Sweden. However, empirical studies that are adjust with respect to the commodity mix, the transport distances, level of congestion etc. in Sweden are needed. • In Part Two three alternative approaches to calculate VTTV for Swedish rail freight transports are demonstrated, that to the best of our knowledge have not been implemented before o Precautionary costs approach, o COOP case study, o Stock market approach. The report includes a table that summarizes VTTV for goods carried by rail, calculated using the different approaches.

  • 13.
    Svensson, Mikael
    et al.
    Örebro University, Karlstad University.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Mortality and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis for Sweden 1800-20002012In: Journal of Population Economics, ISSN 0933-1433, E-ISSN 1432-1475, Vol. 25, no 4, p. 1215-1235Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using wavelet methods, this paper analyzes the relationship between the age-adjusted, infant, and cause-specific mortality rates and the business cycle in Sweden over the period 1800-2000 (1911-1996 for cause-specific mortality). For the period 1800-2000, an increase in GDP by 1% decreased mortality by 0.7%. This overall relationship is due to a strong counter-cyclical relationship in the nineteenth century, which disappeared in the twentieth century. In contrast, in the twentieth century higher mortality in economic upturns is found for mortality caused by circulatory diseases (including stroke) and accidents.

  • 14.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå universitet.
    de Jong, Gerard
    Leeds University.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Trafikanalys.
    Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of the paper is to analyze how sensitive the Swedish national freight model system Samgods is to uncertainties in its production-consumption matrices (PC-matrices). This is done by studying how sensitive outputs from one of its key component, the logistics model, are to changes in the PC-matrices. This paper is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to analyze the sensitivity and economies of scale of a national freight transport model using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that the logistics model is able to find new logistics solutions when larger demand volumes are assumed. Freight volumes are calculated to shift to sea transport. If the transport volume increases with one percent, the logistics cost per tonne is on average reduced by about 0.5 percent. Part of the cost reduction comes from increased consolidation of shipments due to larger transport volumes. There is also a positive correlation between total transport demand and the load factor for heavier lorries, trains and larger ships. Without empirical data and further analysis it is difficult to assess the estimated strength of the effect. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that it might be possible to reduce runtimes by removing small transport flows from the PC-matrices without affecting aggregate results too much.

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