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  • 1.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    A biofuel mandate and a low carbon fuel standard with ‘double counting’2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

     European Union’s (EU) energy legislation from 2009 is still being implemented in the Member States. We study analytically the Renewable Energy Directive and the Fuel Quality Directive’s provisions for the transport sector. The former Directive imposes a biofuel mandate and allows double counting of some biofuels. The latter Directive imposes a Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). We show that either the biofuel mandate or the LCFS is redundant. Double counting makes the biofuel mandate easier to fulfil but also depresses the price of biofuels. Production of the doubly counted biofuels increases nevertheless and production of the single-counted biofuels falls. Given the type of technical change studied, double counting spurs technical development of the doubly counted biofuels. The LCFS directs support towards those biofuels with lowest life-cycle carbon emissions. The redundant policy instrument, the biofuel mandate or the LCFS, only creates costs but no benefits and should be abolished. Double counting makes the biofuel mandate non-cost-efficient and should be reconsidered.

  • 2.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Biofuels production versus forestry in the presence of lobbies and technological change2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Production and use of biofuels, both for electricity and heat generation and for transportation, has grown over the past years. There are many reasons for this, among other climate change, energy security, high fossil fuel prices and rural development goals. Production of most types of biofuels requires land, however, thus competing for land both with agriculture and with forestry. For instance, Hyytiäinen et al. (2008) find for Finland that the production of biofuels (reed canary grass) is the most profitable use of arable land (compared to growing oats or pine trees), although only in the proximity of (at most 40 km from) a thermal power station. Lankoski and Ollikainen (2008), in turn find that production of reed canary grass in Finland, when the alternative is oats, is socially optimal even 100 km away from the power plant. In the tropics, not only fallow or unused agricultural land is used for biofuel production but also rainforest land has been converted, for instance, to palm oil plantations. This development is largely driven by policy measures, for instance, by the European Union's (EU) 20-20-20 target (a reduction of at least 20% in greenhouse gas emissions, and a 20% share of renewable energies in the EU's energy consumption by 2020), set by the European Council in March 2007.

  • 3.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Civil servants’ education and the representativeness of the bureaucracy in environmental policy-making2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We model and test the representativeness of environmental policy-making, as implied by cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results, in governmental agencies assuming that individual civil servants maximize their personal utility. Education may also influence civil servants’ behavior. The biologists in our sample have the highest valuation of environmental quality. We suspect that their training does not teach them about societal welfare maximization and that they consequently do not adjust their policy recommendation to CBA results, while the economists, who learn about welfare economics, do. The empirical results indicate that the economists adjust their private valuation of the environment by a factor giving a sufficient weight to the CBA results to make their average choice a cost-efficient one. Even the economists in our sample chose on average a policy that is costlier than the cost-efficient one yet clearly less expensive than the policy chosen by the biologists and social scientists.

  • 4.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Environmental concern and the choice of transport infrastructure projects in Sweden2010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    One of the goals of transport policy in Sweden is to minimize the impact from transport on the environment. Using a database consisting of over 800 rail, road and maritime transport infrastructure projects, we estimate whether environmental factors, such as negative environmental effects arising from the project (noise and barrier effects), or emissions of five pollutants (NOx, VOC, CO2, SO2 and PM) affect the choice of which projects will be built. For a broader model including all three transport modes, we find that projects that cause negative environmental effects in fact have a greater probability of being included in the National or a Regional Transport Infrastructure Plan for 2010-2021. For a narrower model including only road investments, we find that if we include a measure for the Net Benefit/Investment Cost Ratio (NBIR), only the negative environmental effects matter and raise the probability of a project being included in a Plan. Excluding the NBIR measure reveals that what matters are the CO emissions and traffic safety measures. Thus, an increase in the emissions of CO lowers the project's probability of being included in a Plan, and traffic safety benefits increase the probability.

  • 5.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Geographical aspects in the political economics of transport infrastructure funding in Sweden2013Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 6.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Kvotplikt för biodrivmedel: högsta vinsten till specialintressen?2014In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 2Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    I mars 2013 lade regeringen fram ett förslag till ett nytt system för att öka användningen av biodrivmedel. Man föreslår en kvot för bensin och två kvoter för dieselbränslen, utan någon koppling mellan kvoterna. Förslaget omfattar inte alla biodrivmedel. Denna artikel visar att regeringens förslag varken är kostnadseffektivt, teknikneutralt eller ekologiskt hållbart och diskuterar vem som är vinnare och förlorare av förslaget.  I artikeln skisseras även ett alternativt kostnadseffektivt system som bland annat möjliggör handel i biodrivmedelscertifikat.

  • 7.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Nya regler för biodrivmedel gynnar mest producenter2014In: Dagens nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Felriktad politik. Regeringen inför en kvotplikt för att öka konsumtionen av biodrivmedel. Men systemet motverkar regeringens egna uppsatta mål. Dessutom kommer särskilda intressegrupper att gynnas medan skattebetalarna och vanliga bilister blir de stora förlorarna, skriver forskaren Johanna Jussila Hammes.

  • 8.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Path dependence: biofuels policy under uncertainty about greenhouse gas emissions2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We study the effect of uncertainty about the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the production of biofuels on trade policy, in the presence of lobby groups and two policy instruments, trade policy and biofuels mandates. We show that in the presence of biofuels mandates it would be optimal from a societal point of view to lower the trade tariff on biofuels when the emissions from their production are shown to be 'high' as compared to when they are believed to be 'low'. If the government is susceptible to lobbying, the tariff may be raised instead. We further show that at subsequent time periods, the biofuels sector's marginal lobbying effort will not fall compared to previous periods, and that consequently, its political contribution also does not fall. Finally we show how policy may be path dependent, i.e., that earlier tariff rates in part determine future tariff rates if the government is susceptible to lobbying and given that the domestic price of biofuels does not fall. The model can, e.g., shed light on why the EU does not lower the tariffs on Brazilian ethanol in the face of new information.

    Older version : http://swopec.hhs.se/vtiwps/abs/vtiwps2011_001.htm

  • 9.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Political economics or Keynesian demand-side policies: What determines transport infrastructure investment in Swedish municipalities?2015In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 51, p. 49-60Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines investment in transport infrastructure in Swedish municipalities according to the three National Transport Infrastructure Plans of 2004, 2010 and 2014. The plans cover 12 years each. The test of a swing voter model, combined with variables relevant to the Keynesian model of demand side policies, supports the proposition that there is less investment in municipalities with highly partisan electorates. The model seems to work better for road than for rail investments. Municipalities with a high density of voters at the ideological cut-point (middle of the ideological distribution) got more investment in the 2010 plan but not in the other plans. The impact of the elasticity of output on public service provision raised investment in road projects in sub-plan period 1 compared to later sub-plan periods. The tax elasticity of output may influence the volume of investment downward. The Plan for 2010–2021 seems to be the most politically determined of the plans considered here.

  • 10.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Styrmedel för självkörande fordon2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Tekniken för självkörande fordon utvecklas snabbt, även om drömmen om helt självkörande fordon fortfarande är relativt osäker. I detta PM görs översikter över flera olika litteraturer. En är en översikt över de effekter som självkörande fordon kan förväntas ha på trängsel, restid, markanvändning och parkering, påverkan på urban sprawl, miljöeffekter och påverkan på energianvändning, trafiksäkerhet samt hälsoeffekter. Självkörande fordon kommer dessutom ha en stor påverkan på självkörande taxi och kollektivtrafiksystem, där flera bedömare anser att det sistnämnda bara kommer kunna existera i sin nuvarande form i tätbebyggda områden. Självkörande fordon kan vidare bidra med ökad och förbättrad mobilitet för grupper så som funktionshindrade, äldre och barn, de påverkar infrastrukturplaneringen, och avslutningsvis har de potential att revolutionera godstransportsystemet. Utifrån en förståelse för hur självkörande fordon påverkar transportsystemet och det omgivande samhället görs sedan en översikt över den litteratur som studerar möjliga styrmedel för att internalisera de externa effekter som självkörande fordon orsakar. Litteraturen omfattar även styrmedel som ska stödja introduktionen av självkörande fordon, även om det inte är klart varför ett sådant stöd skulle behövas, samt vissa styrmedel, framförallt olika typer av vägavgifter, som skulle kunna användas för att internalisera effekter av ökad trängsel. Avslutningsvis relateras både de effekter som självkörande fordon har, och de styrmedel som undersökts till Trafikverkets mål och slutsatser dras gällande behov av framtida forskning.

  • 11.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Styrmedelsinventering: delstudie inom SAMKOST2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report takes stock and describes policy instruments that affect the extent of the various externalities arising from transport; noise, impact on infrastructure (both planning new infrastructure and consumption phase), climate, air pollution, traffic safety, congestion and impact on water. The analysis of policy instruments covers all four transport modes: road, rail, maritime and air transport. The description begins with a review of related international agreements and EU regulations. It then discusses domestic policy measures. The point of departure in this discussion is whether a policy instrument affects the marginal cost of an activity or not.

    It is difficult to link a specific policy instruments to specific external effects, even though there is such a link in the instrument's design. The reason for this is that all policy instruments that affect the volume of traffic also by definition  influence all the externalities that arise. The report is nevertheless arranged so that every policy instrument is coupled to the external effect that it primarily aims at.

    The report also contains an overview of policy instruments in five neighboring countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway, the UK and Germany. The international overview does not include an examination of the links between external effects and policy instruments but lists and describes the policy instruments on the basis of the transport mode they affect.

  • 12.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    The political economy of infrastructure planning in Sweden2013In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 47, no 3, p. 437-452Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study factors affecting the choice of projects to be included in the National Transport Infrastructure Plan for 2010-2021 in Sweden, controlling for the CBA results. The centre-right government tended to favour those counties that voted for it, and favour rail investments over road. We find no discrimination against the large cities of Gothenburg, Malmö and Stockholm. Finally, lobbying also matters; projects with co-financing from the local municipality(ies) have a greater probability of being included in the Plan. Industry lobbying has, at best, a borderline significant effect, and affects the probability of a project being included in the Plan positively.

  • 13.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Utformning av kvotpliktsystem för biodrivmedel2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The EU's renewables directive requires that the consumption of biofuels must increase. In a VTI report Johanna Jussila Hammes studies the design of a biofuels quota system and its cost effectiveness with the help of an analytic model on three different ways to formulate a quota.

    The quota system will be cost effective if trade in biofuels certificates is allowed. It is also possible to use biogas in order to increase the system's cost effectiveness.

    "Double counting" some biofuels will make it easier to reach the quota and lowers the consumer price of fuels, but will not provide any support for the doubly counted biofuels. Fuel quality requirements can reduce the cost effectiveness of the system. This may be helped if biofuels in high concentrations also can be counted towards the quota.

    De Gorter and Just (2009) show how a biofuels quota in conjunction with a tax rebate to biofuels constitutes a subvention to the consumption of all fuels. For this reason, we recommend that no tax rebate will be given to biofuels included in a quota system.

    Given that the number of firms in the fossil fuel and the biofuels sectors are about the same, and that the quota is not very strict, the quota system will reduce eventual market power. The same result applies to the biofuel certificate market, where trade in the certificates increases welfare even in the presence of market power.

    Johanna Jussila Hammes ends with a short literature overview of the direct and the indirect land use change, and of the effect of biofuels on the price of food.

  • 14.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Mandell, Svante
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Local government co-financing of the central government's transport infrastructure investment2019In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130, Vol. 18, p. 40-49Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study two districts’ voluntary co-financing of a centrally provided public good, e.g., transport infrastructure. Outcomes are compared to a surplus-maximizing level of public good provision. We show that both co-financing and lobbying raise the amount of public good provided. Co-financing and lobbying are substitutes. Co-financing (or co-financing combined with lobbying) raises the provision of the public good to a higher level than lobbying alone. Co-financing can thus reduce rent-seeking. Finally, we show that under uncertainty about district type (high or low benefit), co-financing combined with lobbying can be used to find and retain a separating equilibrium.

  • 15.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    Högskolan Dalarna.
    Congdon Fors, Heather
    Göteborgs universitet.
    The influence of individual characteristics and institutional norms on bureaucrats’ use of CBA in environmental policy: a model and a choice experiment2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Social scientists regularly criticize the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), which has led to much focus being placed on investigating the possible biases related to its results. Recent research shows that CBA is not routinely done prior to environmental, energy, and climate policymaking in Sweden, and in countries where a CBA is made, the results have little influence on political decisions. This paper investigates obstacles to using CBA information with a focus on bureaucrats. We use empirical data from Sweden, where the ministries are small by international standards and hence government agencies have a sizeable influence on policymaking. We construct a theoretical model and then test the theoretical predictions with empirical data collected from five Swedish government agencies. The empirical results lend support both for the assertion that risk aversion concerning the environmental outcome, the bureaucrats’ environmental attitudes, and the cost of taking CBA information into account have a considerable impact on the probability of using information from a CBA. Hence risk averse and bureaucrats with strong environmental preferences are less likely and bureaucrats with low cost of doing a CBA more likely than other bureaucrats to use CBA information. Finally, a binding governmental budget constraint may positively influence a bureaucrat’s choice of undertaking a CBA. A tentative conclusion is therefore that it may be possible to increase the use of CBA by making the budgetary consequences of policies much clearer and demanding due consideration of costs.

  • 16.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    The allocation of transport infrastructure in Swedish municipalities: welfare maximization, political economy or both?2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The choice of transport infrastructure projects to include in the National Transport Infrastructure Plans in Sweden is often said to be motivated by the weighing of cost against social benefits. Examining the projects that are included in the Plans, it is clear, however, that not all projects have positive net present values, and are therefore more costly to build than the benefits they create. This paper studies alternative models that might explain the choice of projects. Two political economy models, the district demand and the swing voter with lobbying, are tested, and a model that accounts for the spatial distribution of the projects, as well as the possibility that priorities are based on welfare concerns, is estimated. No support is found for the political economy models. What explains investment volume is the existence of CBA results for a project, which may indicate that welfare benefits have an impact, as do the spatial spillovers from a project’s benefits and lobbying, especially by the municipalities concerned.

  • 17.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    The impact of education on environmental policy decision-making2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Civil servants in governmental agencies regularly both propose environmental policies for the elected politicians and make own decisions. In making these decisions they may be influenced by legal norms, agency policy and culture, professional norms acquired through education as well as personal political preferences. This study tests how students in late stages of professional training in economics, biology and social sciences handle information in order to make a stylized choice of a national nutrient limit for lake water, or choose a program at a municipal level to lower the nutrient level in a local lake. The purpose is to test whether professional norms acquired during academic education and/or the presence of an international standard influences decision-making. We examine three hypotheses. Firstly, students’ political attitudes affect their choice of major, i.e. biology, economics or social sciences, and thereby indirectly their decisions. We find that the distribution of the political values among disciplines is compatible with the hypothesis, which therefore is not rejected. Secondly, a student’s major influences the kind of information they use and consequently the policy choice they will recommend. In plain words we expected biology students to go for environmentally more ambitious (lower) nutrient limits and economics students to prefer economically efficient (higher) levels. The central result is that while economics majors are more likely than biology or social science majors to choose a cost-efficient nutrient limit, the mean and median values of the nutrient levels chosen by the three groups do not differ from one another in a statistically significant way. Economists thus have a higher standard deviation in their answers than the other majors. The third hypothesis is that the presence of an internationally approved standard level for the nutrient content will significantly influence the choice of national nutrient limit. We find that biology students are influenced to set a lower nutrient limit when presented with the standard than otherwise, thereby rejecting the null hypothesis for this group. For students in economics and social sciences, no significant effect is found. Our results have implications for the feasibility of micromanagement in government agencies as recruiting economists to environmental agencies may not be sufficient to ensure economically efficient decisions. The findings also should sound a warning about the skills learned by economics majors at the two largest universities in Sweden: while some students seem familiar with the concepts of optimality and cost efficiency and able to use them, this applies to far from all of them.

  • 18.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    The influence of public transport supply on private car use in 17 mid-sized Swedish cities from 1997 to 20112016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyse the impact of increased public transport supply on private car use using micro data on individuals from 17 mid-sized cities in Sweden. The data is obtained from Swedish administrative registers (tax and odometer), which exists for all Swedish adults and cars, and information of public transport supply, namely bus kilometres supplied.

    In a description of the data we see that that the increase of private Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) per inhabitant stagnate in the sample cities towards the end of the period 1997-2011. Our hypothesis is that changes in the supply of public transport is the main cause for this stagnation. The probability of owning a car and the demand functions for VKT are estimated. The principal finding is that private car use is reduced by increased supply of bus kilometres with an average elasticity ranging from -0.01 to -0.04. This effect is larger in peripheral areas and in larger cities. In small cities the effect is almost nil. We conclude that public transport has an effect on the private VKT of inhabitants but that the impact is relatively small and cannot be the main cause for the stagnating increase of private VKT per inhabitant in the sample cities.

  • 19.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Response to a social dilemma: an analysis of the choice between an economic and an environmental optimum in a policy making context2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Many countries have begun to require benefit-cost analysis as a way of informing key regulatory decisions. However, its actual use seem to be limited, especially in the area of environmental, health, and safety regulation. Reasons for this seem to be lack of knowledge and experience among decision makers and that established quality objectives prevent the use of this type of analysis and deliberation. We present the results from an experiment designed to investigate choice behavior in a public sector context. Students with different academic majors were asked to act as decision makers. There were two choice situations: one in a municipality deciding on an action plan and one in a government agency having to propose a national limit value. In both settings, the outcome that would pass a benefit-cost test would not achieve a natural state of the environment, hence a social dilemma choice situation. We find that a majority of the respondents prefer outcomes that can be considered environmental “optimum” but that there is a difference depending on academic major. The choice context also influences the response behavior and so does the information about an international standard. The latter increases the likelihood to accept alternatives that imply higher costs.

  • 20.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    The allocation of transport infrastructure in Swedish municipalities: Welfare maximization, political economy or both?2016In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130, Vol. 7, p. 53-64Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper compares models for explaining the volume of transport investments in Swedish municipalities: 1 by the planned projects’ welfare consequences, 2. in terms of the district demand (the common pool) model, namely a municipality's share of the cost towards the investment and 3. electoral concerns and/or lobbying, as described by a swing voter model.

    We find that the welfare only hypothesis has little explanatory power. The district demand model explains the investment volume in rail projects, while the swing voter model explains road investment better. Lobbying does not seem to have any impact on the investment volume.

    Finally, we find that including a measure of the welfare in the political economy models greatly enhances the models’ explanatory power. Our main conclusion is that future analyses of what drives the allocation of resources for transport infrastructure should consider aspects related to both political economy, welfare, and the transport mode.

  • 21.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Sowa, Victor
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Översiktlig strukturanalys för sjötransporter2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of the report is to analyze trends and specific events that could affect trade flows, the transport system, the sea transport volumes and the fee revenues of the Swedish Maritime Administration in 2020. In three parts the researchers have described the developments that affect the revenues of the Swedish Maritime Administration. The first part discusses present trade flows and how these are expected to develop, the second part addresses the developments in the transport system and the third part the past development of loaded and unloaded tonnes goods and the number of calls in the Swedish ports and their expected continued development. Loaded and unloaded tonnes and number of calls are the basis for the fairway dues and pilot fees levied by the Swedish Maritime Administration and therefore linked to their revenues. The researchers reviewed the literature, compiled and analyzed historical data, carried out interviews with shippers from different industries and applied a simple statistical approach to forecast the development up to 2020. Both the interviews and the statistical approach suggest that the future of freight volumes in the Swedish ports will be roughly constant with current levels or slightly increasing. The number of calls in the ports is expected to decline to 2020.

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