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  • 1.
    Abate, Megersa
    et al.
    World Bank.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    de Jong, Gerard
    University of Leeds.
    Baak, Jaap
    dSignificance.
    A disaggregate stochastic freight transport model for Sweden2018In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, p. 1-26Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents estimation results for models of transport chain and shipment size choice, as well as an implementation of the estimated disaggregate models (for two commodity groups), in the context of the national freight transport model for Sweden. The new model is a disaggregate and stochastic (logit) model, whereas the existing Swedish national model is deterministic. One advantage of the new approach is that it bases the underlying behavior of shippers on a stronger empirical foundation (that is micro-data from the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey, CFS). Another advantage is that it overcomes a well-known disadvantage of deterministic models that lead to implausibly large responses to changes in scenario or policy variables. Although estimation and implementation of aggregate stochastic models were done before, in the context of a national freight transport forecasting model, we think this is the first implementation of disaggregate freight transport chain and shipment size models estimated on choice data for individual shipments, certainly in Europe. We carried out a number of model runs with both versions of the implemented model to compare elasticities and found that transport cost and time elasticities for tonne-km are smaller (in absolute values) in the disaggregate stochastic model than in their deterministic counterparts.

  • 2.
    Björketun, Urban
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Eriksson, Jan R
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    NÄTRA: näringslivets transporter med bil i Stockholms län 19982000Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    The object of this publication is to show by examples what data regarding the road transport of the economy in Stockholm

    County in 1998 can be obtained from the NÄTRA database, and to give a scientific description of how the

    investigation was carried out and how the results were implemented in the database.

    The sample investigation focused on a stratified sample of the 175,000 workplaces in the county. For each workplace

    selected, information was obtained regarding all movements by the selected vehicle (heavy lorry, light lorry or

    car) during one day.

    One important conclusion of the report is that it is better to collect transport information by telephone interviews

    than to do this using only questionnaires. The response rate was considerably higher, and the quality of the collected

    data was also better.

    The importance of a non-response investigation is also emphasised in the report. It was possible to use some of

    the data collected in the non-response investigation for imputation of the data. Imputations consist of attempts to

    make the data from the non-response investigation, which are of sufficiently high quality, reflect corresponding vehicle

    movements in the investigation period. Data in the residue of the non-response were considered in computing the

    expansion factors from the sample to the stratum.

  • 3.
    Eriksson, Jan
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Fors, Tobias
    Fredholm, Olof
    Lång, Anna-Maria
    Svensson, Tomas
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    SAMLIC: pilotförsöket2006Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Growing cities are increasing the demand for goods carrying traffic to function well with other traffic. The number of zones for unloading goods in the centre of Linköping is small compared to the number of delivery addresses and the number of goods distributors. The attendant phenomena are congestion and costs of congestion. Therefore the local network for freight forwarders in Linköping has taken the initiative to the SAMLIC project. SAMLIC stands for Coordinated Retail Distribution in Linköping City. The aim of SAMLIC is to create an economically and logistically efficient system for goods distribution that is persistent and friendly to the environment. Economic profitability is neccessary for a system with a joint venture in coordinated distribution. The savings with coordinated distribution for the freight forwarders must be of such a dimension that they find it profitable to join instead of delivering the goods by themselves. During a trial period of nine weeks in the spring of 2004 there was a coordinated distribution to the centre of Linköping. Three freight forwarders took part in this project. The experience of the trial shows that the needed number of trucks decreased by 33 %, the total time for the distribution decreased by 15-20 % and the total driving kilometers in the centre decreased by at least 50 %.

  • 4.
    Eriksson, Jan R
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Björketun, Urban
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Edwards, Henrik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Sandström, Jessica
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Wiklund, Mats
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Ågren, Bertil
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Dokumentation av NÄTRA-undersökningen: en undersökning av näringslivets transporter med bil i Stockholms län 19982000Report (Other academic)
  • 5.
    Hammarström, Ulf
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Enviroment and traffic analysis.
    Eriksson, Jenny
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Traffic and road users, Traffic safety, society and road-user.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Yahya, Mohammad Reza
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Rolling resistance model, fuel consumption model and the traffic energy saving potential from changed road surface conditions2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to evaluate traffic energy changes due to the improvement of road surface standard one need to describe:

    • • rolling resistance at different road surface conditions
    • • all other driving resistance
    • • fuel consumption (Fc) as a function of driving resistance.

    Based mainly on empirical data from coastdown measurements in Sweden a general rolling resistance model – with roughness (iri), macrotexture (mpd), temperature and speed as explanatory variables – was developed and calibrated for a car; a heavy truck and a heavy truck with trailer.

    This rolling resistance model has been incorporated into a driving resistance based Fc model with a high degree of explanation. The Fc function also includes variables for horizontal curvature (ADC) and the road gradient (RF). If mpd per road link is reduced by up to 0.5 mm, the total Fc in the road network will be reduced by 1.1%. By reducing iri per link by 0.5 m/km, speed will increase in parallel to reduced rolling resistance and there will be approximately no resulting effect on Fc. If rut depth is decreased in parallel to iri there will be a further increase in speed. For individual road links there might be an energy saving potential if the proportion of heavy vehicles is big enough.

  • 6.
    Hammarström, Ulf
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Enviroment and traffic analysis.
    Haider, Manfred
    Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT).
    Conter, Marco
    Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT).
    Goubert, Luc
    Belgian Road Research Centre (BRRC).
    Bergiers, Anneleen
    Belgian Road Research Centre (BRRC).
    Glaeser, Klaus-Peter
    Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt).
    Schwalbe, Gernot
    Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt).
    Zöller, Marek
    Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt).
    Boujard, Olivier
    IFSTTAR.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Ejsmont, Jerzy A.
    Technical University of Gdansk (TUG).
    Wang, T
    University of California, Pavement Research Center, UC Davis and Berkeley, Davis, California.
    Harvey, J.T.
    University of California, Pavement Research Center, UC Davis and Berkeley, Davis, California.
    Rolling resistance: basic information and state-of-the-art on measurement methods. Final version2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    MIRIAM has established a sub-project (SP), designated SP 1, to deal with measurement methods for rolling resistance and related issues. This subject forms the most fundamental basis for the MIRIAM ambition to consider rolling resistance in pavement management or other types of infrastructure systems. Without robust measurement methods and equipment that can use them there will be no reliable data as input to such systems and the end result will be most uncertain, if useful at all.

    In order to develop and study measurement methods, there must be a basic understanding of the influencing parameters as well as what energy losses that should be included in the concept of rolling resistance. These issues are, therefore, important parts of the work in SP 1.

    This report is intended to provide basic knowledge about the part of the tyre and road interaction which relates to rolling resistance; for example, the mechanisms that create rolling resistance, and the influence on rolling resistance of various tyre and road parameters. The intention is also to suggest a definition of rolling resistance for the purposes of this project, as well as to provide some detailed state-of-the-art knowledge about the measurement methods and equipment that are useful for collecting rolling resistance data.

  • 7.
    Hammarström, Ulf
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Enviroment and traffic analysis.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Sörensen, Harry
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Measurement technology and engineering workshop.
    Yahya, Mohammad Reza
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Coastdown measurement with 60-tonne truck and trailer: estimation of transmission, rolling and air resistance2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    By use of coastdown measurements, driving resistance parameters have been estimated for a truck with trailer (60t) and a box vehicle body. At a vehicle speed of 20 m/s, average meteorological wind conditions and a load factor of 50% the following distribution of the driving resistance components has been obtained:

    • transmission resistance (churning losses), 5%
    • rolling resistance (test route surface conditions), 41%
    • air resistance, 54%.

    There are also measurements for the truck without a trailer. Rolling resistance is dependent on road surface conditions, in particular roughness (iri) and macro texture (mpd). The total rolling resistance consists of three parts: a basic, an iri and a mpd part. The road surface effect amounts to approximately 40% of the total rolling resistance. The iri effect seems to be the dominating part of the surface effects on the contrary to light vehicles.

    Driving resistance parameters have been estimated by means of regression analysis. A major problem is how to avoid high correlations between explanatory variables. One objective of the experiment design has been to minimize such dependencies. This study might also be of interest for methodological reasons and in particular for including:

    • the introduction of high accuracy road gradients as well as other road surface properties
    • the estimation of vehicle mass from coastdown to coastdown
    • the equipment (based on Doppler technique) used in order to measure the coastdown driving pattern
    • the method used in order to separate parts of the driving resistance
  • 8.
    Hammarström, Ulf
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Enviroment and traffic analysis.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Enviroment and traffic analysis.
    Yahya, Mohammad-Reza
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Enviroment and traffic analysis.
    A method for estimation of average engine fuel maps: power measurements at drive wheels2010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a need for engine maps in order to simulate fuel consumption for road vehicles after mechanistic principles. In an engine map, fuel consumption (g/kWh or g/s) is expressed as a function of engine speed and engine torque. In general, there is a considerable lack in engine map data. The main purpose of this study is to develop a tool for assigning any segment of the car fleet a representative engine map. Two methods have been developed: a "matrix" method based on interpolation of measured values to a uniform grid of values and a "function" method based on regressions. The function alternative is in focus in this documentation. The estimated functions have a high degree of explanation (>0,97). On commission of the Swedish Road Administration, Rototest AB has measured stationary fuel consumption and exhaust emissions for more than 400 cars of different year models. If this data set could be used in mechanistic simulation models one could expect increased representativity in different applications. Advantages with the Rototest method, where the engine at measurements is mounted in the vehicle, could be increased representativity and lower costs compared to motor test bench, which is the traditional method for engine map measurements. One problem with the Rototest data set is that engine torque or power, which is needed in an engine map, is not available, only the output power from the final gear box. In order to estimate crankshaft torque, transmission losses need to be estimated.

  • 9.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
    Metoder för synkronisering av körförlopps- och emissionsdata2006Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Empirical investigations of the connection between driving patterns and exhaust emissions are an important basis for estimating emissions from road traffic. A well-known and important measurement problem is the non-constant time delay that arises between engine data (e.g fuel consumption) and emission data. In the report, a number of different suggestions for synchronizing these data are discussed. Three of these methods are investigated in more detail and compared to one another. One of the methods involves matching the minima of lambda values and the corresponding maxima of the carbon monoxide or hydrocarbon rates. The other two methods are based on models for the gas flow through the exhaust system. One of these ("quasi-stationary model") is very simple while the other makes use of more sofisticated gasdynamical models. Due to lack of independent validation data the methods have been evaluated by mutual comparison of their results. Our conclusion is that the quasi-stationary method is the most useful one. The gasdynamical approach does not yield any substantial improvement.

  • 10.
    Karlsson, Rune
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Bernhardsson, Viktor
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Calibration report: Samgods version 1.1.12018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Samgods model is used for describing and analyzing the Swedish goods transportation system on an overall national level. The Swedish Transport Administration is responsible for its maintenance and development. The current version 1.1, from 1 April 2016, is planned to be replaced by version 1.1.1 in April 2018.

    In this report, changes made from version 1.1 to 1.1.1 in the model are described, as well as the effects these changes have on the more important output from the model. In version 1.1.1, new cost input data has necessitated a recalibration of the model and new values for the calibration parameters have been produced. In principle, the same types of calibration parameters are used in the new version as in the previous one. Particular focus is on the deviations between model output and the statistical data being used as calibration targets. Comparisons of these deviations between versions 1.1 and 1.1.1 are also presented.

  • 11.
    Karlsson, Rune
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Enviroment and traffic analysis.
    Hammarström, Ulf
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Enviroment and traffic analysis.
    Sörensen, Harry
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Measurement technology and engineering workshop.
    Eriksson, Olle
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Infrastructure maintenance.
    Road surface influence on rolling resistance: coastdown measurements for a car and an HGV2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The influence of road surface properties, such as macrotexture and unevenness, on rolling resistance and fuel consumption is an important factor to consider when deter¬mining the coating of a road surface. Results of a VTI study show that the effect of unevenness is in general significantly smaller than that of macrotexture.

    The relative smallness of this influence makes measurements of it a challenging task. In literature a wide range of results can be found and there is still much confusion and uncertainty about how large the influence actually is. In this study, an attempt is made to obtain more reliable estimates of how macrotexture and unevenness affect rolling resistance. The primary method used here is the coastdown method. It has been applied to a private car and to a heavy goods vehicle (HGV). Concerning the effect of unevenness on rolling resistance, only the coastdown method provides any information. Results show that the effect of unevenness is in general significantly smaller than that of macrotexture.

    The coastdown method provides, besides information about rolling resistance, other useful data for the vehicle, such as air resistance coefficients, temperature coefficients and transmission resistance.

  • 12.
    Karlsson, Rune
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Trafikanalys.
    An outline for a validation database for SAMGODS2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A new Swedish national goods transportation model, SAMGODS, has been developed through collaboration among Swedish transport authorities. As the model recently has begun to be applied to real world problems, the need for a validation database has increased. The purpose of such a database is to facilitate validations of the model. The current paper presents a pilot study to create a validation database for SAMGODS. The study focuses on two areas: available data sources that may provide validation data, and how to carry out the validation in practice. The latter is of particular importance since a large number of practical problems arise when matching SAMGODS output data with the validation data. Worth mentioning among the problems that arise are: the inhomogeneous structure of the data tables, the often differing aggregation levels between model output data and validation data, differing time periods, differing systems for commodity groups and elasticities not being immediately available from the SAMGODS data. Other complicating issues are handling of confidential data and the large quantities of data. In this report, a relatively detailed proposal for the design of a validation database is put forward. However, the proposed design is not limited to SAMGODS output data, but it is hoped to be sufficiently flexible to comprise also other goods transportation data from future regional or local models. One of the main ideas in designing the database has been to develop a uniform and flexible data table format in which all relevant data can be stored. This format greatly facilitates the matching between SAMGODS output data and the validation data. Other problems and associated possible solutions are thoroughly discussed.

  • 13.
    Karlsson, Rune
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Trafikanalys.
    Söderbaum, Fredrik
    Trafikanalys.
    Ado, Abboud
    Trafikanalys.
    Larsson-Wijk, Pia
    SWECO.
    Christian Udin, Udin
    SWECO.
    Valideringsverktyg och valideringsdata till godsmodeller2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report deals with questions concerning validation of the Swedish national goods transportation model, Samgods. To some degree, also more general issues of validation are discussed. When developing transportation models it is essential to have independent data available that can be used for comparison, validation and calibration. The quality and availability of such data are obvious issues. It is a big advantage if these data cover many different aspects of the model results and are collected on a regular basis. In the report, a survey of data sources useful for validation purposes is presented. For each source of data, quality and availability is discussed. For statistical data, the method for collecting the data is described in some detail as well as uncertainties and access to the data that may be restricted due to privacy regulations. A special section in the report is devoted to investigating if present day intelligent transport systems (ITS) can provide data for validation purposes. Once the compilation of validation data is completed, many problems remain concerning the validation. In particular, there is a matching problem between the model output data and validation data. The many different table formats and aggregation levels for the data add to the complexity of this problem. A similar, but easier, problem is to compare output data from different versions of Samgods. Within the project a computer program has been developed that can be used for matching such kinds of datasets. The program, as well as a user manual for it, is included in the report.

  • 14.
    Mellin, Anna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Uppdaterad analys av transporteffekter av IMO:s skärpta emissionskrav: modellberäkningar på uppdrag av Sjöfartsverket2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI has been commissioned by the Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) to analyze the impact of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) more stringent sulfur regulations, which will enter into force in 2015 in the Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA) which includes North Sea, Baltic Sea and the English Channel. A similar analysis was conducted in 2009, but an update has been justified (due to that) since there is new information available and that the implementation is approaching. The current analysis is based on three investigation scenarios, selected by the SMA. These scenarios are simulated in the national freight model Samgods (test version of the new Samgods model), which is a cost minimizing model. An earlier version of Samgods was used in the analysis in 2009.

  • 15.
    Mellin, Anna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Wikberg, Åsa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Internalisation of external effects in European freight corridors2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This project was conducted upon a request from the Swedish Agency for Transport Analysis (Trafikanalys), with a governmental assignment to annually report the rate of internalisation per mode for passenger and freight transports. In its 2013 report, the Agency wishes to show examples of how the marginal costs and the internalising taxes and fees vary within and between European countries. With this background, VTI was given the assignment to analyse ten freight routes in Europe within the Narvik (Norway)–Naples (Italy), and Oslo (Norway)– Rotterdam (the Netherlands) corridors. The corridors were stated in the assignment from the Transport Analysis Agency. During the project, two reference group meetings were held with the following participants: Kenneth Wahlberg (Swedish Transport Administration), Stefan Back (TransportGruppen), Katarina Handel (Swedish Maritime Administration), Gunnar Eriksson (Transport Analysis), Rein Juriado (Vinnova) and Anders Ljungberg (our Transport Analysis contact). Further, Glenn Hakansson (former truck driver) helped out in selecting the routes for the road transports. The authors would like to thank all participants for their helpful comments.

  • 16.
    Mellin, Anna
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Wikberg, Åsa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Internalisation of External Effects in European Freight Corridors2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    External effects or externalities “consist of the costs and benefits felt beyond or ‘external to’ those causing the effect” (Anderson, 2006). In the case of transportation, the negative externalities (costs) can take the form of air pollution, noise and accidents. Since external effects do not have a market price, external effects are a form of market failure.Wear and tear of the infrastructure isexternal to individual drivers andoperators,and thus also includedin the analysis.

    External costs can be internalised in various ways e.g. through regulatory measures, technological development or taxes and charges. Some forms of taxation are more effective than others in internalising costs. For example, fuel tax is effective in reducing CO2emissions as it will tend to promote technological change to reduce emissions per kilometre travelled as well as reducing the kilometres driven. A fixed, undifferentiated annual tax on owning a vehicle will, on the other hand, be ineffective in relation to reducing CO2emissions. While it will have some impact on reducing vehicle ownership (and thus indirectly vehicle use), it will not affect kilometres driven by individual vehicles. In this paper the focus is on the “rate of internalisation”. This term is used to describe to what extent the marginal external costs, based on existing regulations and technology (e.g. the European Emission Trading Scheme and emissions classes for road vehicles), are compensated for through charges or taxes. Internalisation at a certain time is thus expressed as the ratio between average charges and taxes on the one hand, and marginal external costs on the other. In this case, a full rate of internalisation would imply that the transport companies are fully charged for the marginal negative effects caused by their transport. If the ratio is below 1, the taxes and charges levied are lower than the existing marginal external costs to society, i.e. there is an under-internalisation.

    The aim of this project is to study the rate of internalisation of external effects through taxes and charges in two European freight corridors during 2012; for road, rail, and sea transport, respectively.The study is based on two presumed freight corridors, between Norway (Narvik) and Italy(Naples), and between Norway (Oslo) and the Netherlands (Rotterdam).

    The analysis is further differentiated on a national level, where each country constitutes one segment of the transport.

  • 17.
    Myhrberg, Stefan
    et al.
    Sweco.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    ITS-stöd för miljövänlig körning: kartläggning och försök: slutrapport2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna rapport utgör slutrapportering i projektet ”ITS-stöd för miljövänlig körning” som utförts under 2009-2010 med finansiering från Trafikverkets FUD-program. Projektet har utförts av Sweco och VTI. Projektets syfte har varit att öka kunskapen kring hur kända och nya ITS-tillämpningar kan bidra till minskade koldioxidutsläpp i samband med vägtrafik. Fokus ligger särskilt på stödsystem för miljövänlig körning. Målsättningen har varit att kunna värdera existerande produkter och satsningar inom området men även att föreslå framtida lösningar och insatser inom området.

  • 18.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Johansson, Anna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Tidtabelläggning: principer, tumregler och utfall2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Transport Agency (Transportstyrelsen) has commissioned VTI to assist in deepening the understanding of the way in which existing railway infrastructure can be efficiently used. The assignment also includes giving advice to the agency’s regulatory tasks within the railway industry. This includes the oversight of the process from initial applications of train paths submitted by train operators to the The Swedish Traffic Agency’s (Trafikverket) subsequent decision about a train plan for the upcoming year and also the ad hoc process taking place from this time to each day of the timetable.

    The report comprises three separate mimeos. The first details the principles and rules-of-thumb used during the scheduling process. The second memorandum focuses one particular aspect of the conflicts in demand for track access, namely the need for access to the infrastructure for maintenance purposes and the consequent need to close down tracks for train operations during this period of time. The third and final mimeo seeks to assess the outcome of the process. In particular, a comparison is made between applications and final allocation of time table slots. Two measures of excess demand are used; the number of trains completely denied access and the adjustment of departure-arrival times relative to initial demand specification.

  • 19.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Lindgren, Hanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Trängsel på spåren?: fördelning av tåglägen i tågplanerna 2014–20162016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, VTI examined the allocation of Swedish Transport Administration timetables 2014-2016 where we compare rail companies filed applications for train paths – as they were presented at the deadline for applications in spring for the coming timetable – with granted train paths in the annual timetable published in the autumn. The main result is that both freight and passenger companies receive roughly the same number of paths that were requested. VTI also examined what we call time offsets, i.e. adjustments in departure, arrival and driving times in the granted paths compared to the paths that were applied for. The time offsets are calculated for departure time, driving time and the arrival time. The time offsets can thus only be calculated for train paths that were both applied for and granted. This analysis shows that about 97 percent of passenger trains depart according to the original timetable during these years. For freight trains the corresponding data, unfortunately, has not been available and the corresponding analysis was not possible.

  • 20.
    Pyddoke, Roger
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Olstam, Johan
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Yahya, Mohammad-Reza
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Trängsel och knapphet på väg, järnväg och i kollektivtrafik: delstudie inom SAMKOST2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study is to take stock of Swedish data and studies that could form the basis of the estimation of marginal costs for congestion on roads and scarcity of railway capacity. Furthermore, the development of methods to estimate and evaluate the congestion in public transport is discussed. The Transport Administration’s investigation from 2013 indicates that there are persistent congestion problems in Stockholm that would be affected by adjustments to the toll cordon, congestion tax levels and differentiation with respect to time and place. A second part quantifies congestion in the road network outside urban areas by the use of extensive flow and velocity measurements from the E4 south of Stockholm as an example. This choice is justified as an example of a highly trafficked road link where the speed reductions occur regularly. The results show that the flows during May to December 2013 regularly were so high that speed dropped below 60 kilometer per hour for long periods. The marginal cost of congestion can be expressed as the change in the cost of a change in density and is highest at densities close to the road’s capacity. When the density is greatest, the marginal cost of one further car is about 10 SEK per kilometer. Compared to the taxes on petrol which is about 0,34 SEK per kilometer, which is considered to cover the marginal costs of all other externalities including carbon emissions. Thus, congestion costs may therefore be considered significant. For train slots, this study has used the Transport Administration’s electronic record of the operators’ requests for train slots from the National train plan for 2013 and the corresponding documentation of the determined slots. We find that the total of allocated slots for the largest operator of passenger trains in Sweden, SJ, received 99 percent of the slots it had applied for and Green Cargo 97 percent. This is not a strong indication of scarcity. For crowding in public transport there are a number of British studies of the valuation of travel in crowded conditions in passenger trains. These valuations have mostly been calculated as a multiplicative factor on time values when the passengers travel without crowding. The report presents studies that show that the willingness to pay may be substantially higher for a shorter travel time if the trip takes place in crowded conditions.

  • 21.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Näringslivets perspektiv på Europeiska kommissionens förslag om TEN-T och Connecting Europe Facility: regeringsuppdrag2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The suggested guidelines for the proposed Trans European Network – Transport (TENT) comprise two levels: a comprehensive-network and a core network. The purpose of the networks is amongst others to offer infrastructure services that support user needs, are efficient, safe and sustainable, support the introduction of new technologies and bring Europe together.

    The Swedish government has commissioned the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) to analyze to what extent the proposed TEN-T corridors are consistent with the Swedish foreign trade flows and needs of the Swedish industry. VTI has carried out the project by compiling foreign trade statistics and the transport flows generated by the foreign trade as well as transport forecasts that have been carried out for Sweden and the Baltic Sea region. Furthermore, companies with large export and/or import flows have been interviewed about their views on the TEN-T proposal. VTI has also used the referral responses that the Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications received regarding the TEN-T proposal.

  • 22.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Jonsson, Lina
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Abate, Megersa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Konkurrensyta land–sjö för svenska godstransporter2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This project aims to investigate the competition between road and rail transports on one hand and the sea transports on the other. Shippers choose different unimodal or multimodal transport chains to carry various types of goods in, to and from Sweden. Transport prices are a key factor when choosing the transport chain. Sea transport prices are set on the world market and fluctuate more than prices for road and rail transports. Imbalances in transport flows also affect the intermodal competition, in particular for transports to/from mainland Europe. According to the statistics the modal split, measured in tonne-kilometers on Swedish territory (including a stretch along the coast) has been relatively constant since 1990. Nearly 40 percent of the tonne-kilometers are carried out by road, nearly 40 per cent by sea and a bit more than 20 per cent by rail. Sweden had so far by definition not inland waterway transports. Simulations with the national Swedish freight model Samgods with ten percent lower on-route costs for vessels indicate different adaptations for different commodity groups. The tonne-kilometers by sea performed on the Swedish territory are expected to increase by about two per cent if all 33 commodities are included. However, for Cement, lime and building materials and Pulp, paper and paper waste increases of almost ten percent are computed. On the other hand, no significant changes in demand are calculated for i.e. Crude oil, which is carried exclusively by sea today. As expected, more competition between the land-based modes and sea transports is calculated for international transports than for domestic transports. If all commodities are included, the largest increases for sea transports are calculated along the Eastern coast (southern part), the Southern coast and through the Kiel Canal. Sea transports are also calculated to increase along the coast in the North of Sweden and to/from Gothenburg on the Western coast. Reductions are expected to occur for both road and rail. The authors emphasize that the results should be seen as indicative.

  • 23.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Effects of Longer Lorries and Freight Trains in an International Corridor between Sweden and Germany2014In: Transportation Research Procedia, ISSN 2324-9935, E-ISSN 2352-1465, Vol. 1, no 1, p. 188-196Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The effects of enabling the use of longer road vehicle combinations and/or longer trains in an intermodal freight corridor that extends from central Sweden to the Ruhr area in Germany are studied. Transports are designed based on the smallest vehicle dimensions in the transport chain, currently 18.75 m for trucks in Germany and 650 m for trains in Sweden. The question that is investigated is whether/how the transport system can be improved by using longer vehicles for road transports, rail transports or both. Ten scenarios are simulated with the help of the Swedish national freight model, Samgods. In Scenario Road 1 it is assumed that 25.25 m-long trucks are allowed on the entire road corridor (that also includes a ferry link). It is further assumed that the longer trucks can access the road corridor in Germany via terminals. In Scenario Rail 1, 750 m-long freight trains can be operated in the rail corridor that goes via Jutland/Denmark. In the combined Road 1 + Rail 1 scenario it is assumed that both longer trucks and longer trains can be used in the corridor. The effects on the freight flows, modal split, logistics costs and CO2 emissions are studied and rough socioeconomic analyses are carried out.

  • 24.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Effects of longer trucks and freight trains in an international corridor between Sweden and Germany2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The effects of enabling use of longer road vehicle combinations and/or longer trains in an intermodal freight corridor that extends from central Sweden to the Ruhr area in Germany are studied. For the time being the transports are designed based on the smallest vehicle dimensions: 18.75 m for trucks in Germany (compared to 25.25 m in Sweden and Denmark) 650 m for trains in Sweden (compared to at least 750 m in Denmark and Germany). The question is whether/or how the transport system can be enhanced by using longer vehicles for road transports, rail transports or both.

    Ten scenarios are simulated with the help of the national freight model Samgods. The Road 1 scenario allows 25.25 m long trucks in the road corridor (including a ferry link via Travemünde) and assumes that the longer trucks can access the road corridor in Germany via terminals. In Rail 1 scenario it is assumed that 750 m long freight trains can be operated in the rail corridor that goes via the Öresund Bridge and Jutland/Denmark. In the Road 1 + Rail 1 scenario it is assumed that both longer trucks and longer trains can be used in the corridor. The effects on the freight flows (tonnes), tonne kilometres, logistics costs and CO2 emissions inside and outside Sweden are studied. The Road 2 scenario assumes that 25.25 m long trucks can access the road corridor in Germany via terminals and direct.

    As expected, the rail tonne kilometres are reduced when longer trucks are allowed in the corridor and vice versa. The road ferry transports increase when it is possible to use long trucks, the total sea transports are however affected very marginally. The competition between rail and sea becomes clear when the trains are extended to 750 m in Rail 1 scenario (1000 m in Rail 2 scenario and 1500 m in Rail 3 scenario). , the exploitation of economies of scale for trucks and/or trains leads to reduced logistics costs. The benefits resulting from reduced CO2 emissions are estimated to be below one per cent of the benefits due to reduced logistics costs. In Road 1 scenario the decrease of the CO2 emissions due to the fact that the transports are carried out with larger road vehicles, is smaller than the increase of the emissions due to the transfer of goods transports from rail to road. The CO2 emissions from sea transports are expected to decline in all scenarios.

    In the Rail 1 scenario benefits of about SEK 0.155 billion per year are calculated due to the reduction of the logistics costs and CO2 emissions. The infrastructure holder estimates that SEK 0.2 to 1.0 billion are required to upgrade meeting and bypass tracks to be able to operate 750 m long trains on the route between central Sweden and the Danish boarder. This means that the investments would be repaid after a time period estimated to be somewhere in the range of one to five years. Our rough calculations in the Road 1 + Rail 1 scenario indicate that the profitability of rail investments does not decrease if longer trucks and longer trains are simultaneously used in the corridor. Our calculations indicate the need for in-depth analyses of the missing cost-benefit components. On the cost side there are additional costs when heavier trains than today are used.

    The Road 1 scenario, that does not require infrastructure investments in Sweden, is expected to lead to cost savings due to reduced logistics costs and CO2 emissions of about SEK 64 million per year. As for rail it needs to be clarified how different weight restrictions in the corridor affect the social benefits and costs. Thorough investigations should also include a detailed analysis of the sea transports that are complementary or competitive to the land transports.

  • 25.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Effekter av längre lastbilar och godståg i en internationell korridor2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The project studies the effects of enabling the use of longer road vehicle combinations and/or longer trains in an intermodal freight corridor that extends from central Sweden to the Ruhr area in Germany. For the time being the transports are designed based on the smallest vehicle dimensions: 18.75 m for trucks in Germany and 650 m for trains in Sweden. The question is whether/or how the transport system can be enhanced by using larger vehicles for road transports, rail transports or both. Ten scenarios are simulated with the help of the national freight model Samgods which assumes a constant freight demand. In the road scenario V1, 25.25 m long trucks are allowed in the road corridor (that includes a ferry link and goes via Travemünde) and it is further assumed that large trucks can access the road corridor in Germany via terminals. In the rail scenario J1, 750 m long freight trains can be operated in the rail corridor that goes via the Öresund Bridge and Jutland/Denmark. In the combined scenario V1+J1 it is assumed that both longer trucks and longer trains can be used in the corridor. The effects on the freight flows, tonne kilometres, logistics costs and CO2 emissions inside and outside Sweden are studied and very rough socio-economic analyses have been carried out.

  • 26.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Uppdaterad beräkning av transportkostnader för företag i norra Sverige2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The transport grant (Transportbidrag) is designed to compensate companies in the Northern part of Sweden for the higher transport costs that are caused by a disadvantageous geographic location. A total of 44 municipalities in the counties of Västernorrland, Jämtland, Västerbotten and Norrbotten are eligible for the grant. In 2006 the Swedish Institute for Communication Analysis SIKA estimated how the transport costs, for inbound and outbound transports of high-value goods and metal products, differ for firms in the four counties in the upper North from the national average. The transport costs were computed from data for 2001. The results from SIKA’s study have been used as a basis for determining the "grant rates" to reduce firms’ additional costs for long distance transports. The purpose of VTI:s study 2014 is to estimate the corresponding transport cost based on more recent data, from 2006 and 2012. In both studies, calculations have been carried out using the official Swedish national freight transport model, Samgods. The calculations were carried out for the eligible commodity groups: Unprocessed material or semi-finished products of iron or metal, High-value products, Sawn and planed timber, Chemicals other than coal and tar, as well as the sum of these commodity groups. With the weighted approach the computed costs depends heavily on the flows (weights) between sending and receiving municipalities for the different commodities A general pattern is that the transport costs increase with the distance to the south or central Sweden, provided that the weighting is done with respect to Sweden. Estimated transport cost changes between 2006 and 2012 show relatively clear patterns when the weighted approach is used (with respect to domestic transports). According to the calculations the firms in the four Northern counties are estimated to have higher normalized costs in 2012 compared to 2006 when all the eligible commodities are included. This is true both for inbound and outbound transports. However, when considering individual eligible commodity groups, results become less unambiguous.

  • 27.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Lindé, Tobias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Cullinane, Kevin
    Göteborgs Universitet.
    How to achieve less emissions from freight transport in Sweden2019In: Maritime Business Review, ISSN 2397-3757, E-ISSN 1548-1921, Vol. 4, no 1, p. 4-15Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    For the case of Sweden, this paper aims to determine how a range of different infrastructure fees and taxes influences modal split, port throughputs, air emissions, societal costs of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution, as well as logistics costs.

    The Swedish national freight model is used to simulate a range of different proposed infrastructure fees, one by one and in combination. The volume of emissions of CO2-equivalents, NOx, SOx and PM under the different scenarios is calculated in both volume and monetary terms, by applying national emission factors and EU values for external costs.

    Road user fees are calculated to have the largest impact on the modal split, GHG emissions and air pollution. The impact increases slightly when road user fees are combined with higher fees for sea and rail and/or gate fees in all Swedish ports. The imposition of gate fees over €30 per truck in all ports leads to shifts in cargo to land-based modes and to ports outside Sweden. The logistics costs in Sweden are found to be three to ten times higher than the benefits of reduced GHG emissions and air pollution, although other benefits to society need to be considered as well.

    The results can be used as basis for policy-making. They illustrate the environmental impacts of the fees and taxes one by one and in combination and to what extent these reinforce each other and should be co-ordinated.

    The outcomes are relevant to national and international policymakers and authorities, as well as port authorities, shippers and transport companies who need to determine unilateral strategies on how to reduce GHG emissions and air pollution, without undermining their wider business objectives.

  • 28.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Mellin, Anna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK. Havs- och vattenmyndigheten.
    Effects of more stringent sulphur requirements for sea transports2015In: Transportation Research Procedia: Current practices in transport: appraisal methods, policies and models – 42nd European Transport Conference Selected Proceedings, Elsevier, 2015, Vol. 8, p. 125-135Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2008 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided on more stringent requirements from 2015 for airborne emissions of sulphur dioxide from sea transports in the sulphur emission control areas (SECA). The European SECA comprises the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the English Channel. The paper contains an overview of the European studies that have been carried out to investigate the impacts of IMO's more stringent sulphur requirements. All studies were carried out after IMO's decision in 2008 (which means that the decision was taken based on other reasons). The studies focus on different aspects but all of them estimate how IMO's stricter requirements will affect the sea transport costs. The Swedish impact studies are described in particular: in the 2009 study the national transport model Samgods was used and in 2013 both the Samgods model and the agent-based simulation model Tapas. Impacts on the choice of transport chains, routes and ports are calculated. The results indicate that shippers to some extent can reduce the increase in transport cost by transferring flows from the Swedish east coast to the Swedish south and west coast, the Norwegian coast and the land-based route via Denmark. Modal back shifts from sea to rail and road occur. These shifts are modest, especially if higher prices for diesel and higher rail track fees are assumed on top of more stringent sulphur requirements in the SECA. One important question is to what extent the increases in costs that are due to more stringent requirements can be compensated for by improved efficiency of the transports, such as the exploitation of economies of scale.

  • 29.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Westin, Jonas
    CERUM, Umeå universitet.
    Validering av sjötransporter i Samgodsmodellen: version 1.12016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The project analyzes how well sea transports are modelled in the Swedish national freight model system Samgods. This first report comprises a short description of Version 1.1 of the model including calibration, a comparison of model results and statistics in 2012 as well as sensitivity analyses to test how the model reacts to different types of interventions. The second report, VTI notat 31-2016 Modeling of loops in maritime transport Case Study of SCA's RoRo operations in the Baltic Sea, examines how big the problem is that Samgods does not model loops (vessels calling more than two ports during a trip).

    The existing Samgods model is a deterministic cost-minimizing model. It consists of several partially interacting modules: a) base matrices that describe the demand for 32 commodities, b) the logistics model that contains submodules for the choice of consignment size, consolidation of shipments from different senders, choice of transport chains, treatment of empty transports etc. and c) the rail capacity management tools (RCM) addressing capacity constraints in the Swedish rail network.

    The calibration of the model focuses on tonne-km and modal split in Sweden as well as different regional distributions of the tonnes transported, but the distribution over vessels types is not taken into account. Our analyses show that the model calculates about four times as many tonnes transported by container vessels than the statistics. We see a need to check if the input data used for the modelling of container transports (vs conventional transports) is realistic.

    Throughput (loaded/unloaded tonnes goods) was calibrated for 14 coastal sections and twelve aggregated commodities. However, we believe that the throughput per port should be a calibration target. The distribution of the gods on the ports is crucial in analyses of investments in fairways, locks etc.

    Furthermore, the distribution of the port calls vessel categories and -size classes was not a calibration target. We show that Samgods model overestimates the number of calls to all freight vessels with about 50 percent. The number of container vessel calls is about five times higher as in the Swedish Maritime Administration’s database. The number of roro-vessel calls is about two times as high. The conformity for the other vessels is very good.

  • 30.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Mellin, Anna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Hylén, Bertil
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Karlsson, Jenny
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Trafikanalys.
    Kartläggning av godstransporterna i Sverige2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report summarizes VTI’s contribution, assigned by Transport Analysis, to a project commissioned by the Swedish government on freight transport in Sweden. The focus of this report is to generate a knowledge base and an analysis of the present situation of freight transport in Sweden. Furthermore, the project includes how statistics and knowledge in this area can be further developed

  • 31.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Mellin, Anna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Analys av effekter av IMO:s skärpta svavelkrav: modellberäkningar på uppdrag av Trafikanalys2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    On behalf of the governmental agency Transport analysis VTI has analysed the consequences of the stricter sulphur regulations for marine fuel with the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods. The base scenario has been compared with, in total, 18 analysis scenarios developed by Transport analysis. The reason for the large amount of scenarios is the fact that both the technical and the economic development (related to the sulfur directive) is uncertain and needs to be taken into consideration. The results show that the demand for sea transports on the Swedish territory (in tonne-km) is indicated to be rather inelastic. In scenario High 1 the sea tonne-km are calculated to decrease by 0.7 billion (about 2%) due to 40–76 per cent higher sea transport costs (depending on type of ship) all other costs kept unchanged. For rail, the tonne-km are increasing maximum by 0.9 billion (about 4%). This is the case for scenario High 3 with the highest assumed increase for sea and road transports. The results for rail should be interpreted as potential increases since the model does not take into account capacity restrictions. For road, the tonne-km are calculated to decrease in Sweden with a maximum of 0.6 billion (about 2%) in the scenarios Low 3 and Low 3B. In this report changes in freight flows, tonnes per route and mode, are illustrated in maps showing the difference between the base scenario and the different analysis scenarios. For road, the overall pattern is indicating a redirection of the volumes from the ports along the Swedish east coast to ports on the Swedish west coast and to the ferry lines in the south. Finally, the results should be interpreted with caution since they are based on a test version of the Samgods model. However, we still believe that the results on an overall level seem to be reasonable.

  • 32.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Mellin, Anna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Externa kostnader och avgifter för fem svenska, gränsöverskridande godstransporter2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Summary: For five international freight relations with origin or destination in Sweden, a total of fifteen alternative transport chains have been studied:

    - Case 1: Container transport from Hamburg to Eskilstuna

    - Case 2: Trailer transport from Düsseldorf to Smedjebacken

    - Case 3: Transport of sawn timber from Norrköping to Rochefort

    - Case 4: Transport of steel from Borlänge to Benelux

    - Case 5: Container transport from Gävle to Hamburg

    The analysis comprises a) the marginal external costs of the transports, b) the federal infrastructure charges and taxes paid and c) the degree to which external costs are internalized. Road, rail and sea are included separately or in combination in the alternative transport chains. Assumptions are made concerning vehicle and vessel sizes, utilization rates and routes. The description refers to the situation in autumn 2012.

  • 33.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå universitet.
    de Jong, Gerard
    Leeds University.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Trafikanalys.
    Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of the paper is to analyze how sensitive the Swedish national freight model system Samgods is to uncertainties in its production-consumption matrices (PC-matrices). This is done by studying how sensitive outputs from one of its key component, the logistics model, are to changes in the PC-matrices. This paper is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to analyze the sensitivity and economies of scale of a national freight transport model using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that the logistics model is able to find new logistics solutions when larger demand volumes are assumed. Freight volumes are calculated to shift to sea transport. If the transport volume increases with one percent, the logistics cost per tonne is on average reduced by about 0.5 percent. Part of the cost reduction comes from increased consolidation of shipments due to larger transport volumes. There is also a positive correlation between total transport demand and the load factor for heavier lorries, trains and larger ships. Without empirical data and further analysis it is difficult to assess the estimated strength of the effect. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that it might be possible to reduce runtimes by removing small transport flows from the PC-matrices without affecting aggregate results too much.

  • 34.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå Universitet.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    de Jong, Gerard
    Significance, Netherlands .
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Krüger, Niclas A.
    Örebro Universitet.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Trafikanalys.
    Analyzing model uncertainty and economies of scale of the Swedish National Freight model to changes in transport demand2016In: European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, ISSN 1567-7133, E-ISSN 1567-7141, Vol. 16, no 4, p. 619-632Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of the paper is to analyze model uncertainty and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight transport model system Samgods to changes in its zone-to-zone base matrices. Even though economies of scale is important for freight transport, few studies analyze model uncertainty and economies of scale at a national level. Compared to many large scale network-based freight models working on aggregated transport flows, an important feature in Samgods is that it simulates logistics behavior at a disaggregated firm level.

    The paper studies effects on total tonne- and vehicle-kilometre, modal split, consolidation and logistics costs when the base matrices are scaled up and down and estimates economies of scale for Swedish freight transports. The results indicate that the logistics model can find new logistics solutions for larger demand volumes, mainly by shifting freight to sea transport. If transport volume increases with one percent, average logistics cost per tonne is reduced by around 0.5 percent. Part of the cost reduction comes from increased consolidation of shipments due to larger transport volumes.

    The results derived in the paper can serve as a reference for empirical validation and comparisons with other large scale freight models. The paper is a first contribution that tries to fill the knowledge gap on the impact of base matrices on transport model outcomes, such as economies of scale, in the context of a full-fledged real-world freight transport model.

1 - 34 of 34
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