In freight transportation, decisions regarding the choice of transport mode (or chains of modes) and shipment size are closely linked. Building on this basic insight, in this paper we estimate and review various joint econometric models using the Swedish National Commodity Flow surveys. Robust parameter estimates from this exercise will be used to update the current deterministic Swedish national freight model system (the SAMGODS model) to a stochastic one.

This paper presents estimation results for models of transport chain and shipment size choice, as well as an implementation of the estimated disaggregate models (for two commodity groups), in the context of the national freight transport model for Sweden. The new model is a disaggregate and stochastic (logit) model, whereas the existing Swedish national model is deterministic. One advantage of the new approach is that it bases the underlying behavior of shippers on a stronger empirical foundation (that is micro-data from the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey, CFS). Another advantage is that it overcomes a well-known disadvantage of deterministic models that lead to implausibly large responses to changes in scenario or policy variables. Although estimation and implementation of aggregate stochastic models were done before, in the context of a national freight transport forecasting model, we think this is the first implementation of disaggregate freight transport chain and shipment size models estimated on choice data for individual shipments, certainly in Europe. We carried out a number of model runs with both versions of the implemented model to compare elasticities and found that transport cost and time elasticities for tonne-km are smaller (in absolute values) in the disaggregate stochastic model than in their deterministic counterparts.

Modal shift within the freight transport sector has been promoted by policy makers as one of the means to achieving climate and environmental targets for several decades. The European Union has also had modal split objectives in place since 2011. In the Green Deal the ambition of shifting freight away from road transports is repeated. Even though the literature on mode choice is well established, there is less consensus about the volume of freight with potential to shift and, more importantly, the actual contribution of modal shift to achieving environmental and climate objectives. Based on a literature review to determine the potential of freight modal shifts within different segments in Sweden, this paper discuss the underlying assumptions explaining how freight modal shift is interpreted both as a political means to achieving overarching policy objectives and as a policy objective in itself.

Överflyttning av gods från väg till järnväg och sjöfart är ett av tre övergripande mål i Sveriges nationella godstransportstrategi (NGTS) som antogs 2018. Syftet med detta PM är att sammanställa ett kunskapsunderlag om överflyttning av godstransporter från väg till järnväg och sjöfart. Underlaget ska kunna användas av Trafikanalys i arbetet med slututvärderingen av NGTS. Godsarbetets fördelning över olika trafikslag har legat relativt stabilt över tid under de senaste 20 åren. Den officiella statistiken presenteras som årligt aggregerade godsrörelser på svenskt territorium i godstransportarbete (ton-km) och godsmängd (ton). Det gör det svårt att uttala sig om förändringar i godsarbetets fördelning över olika trafikslag. Att godsets fördelning ligger stabilt kan vara ett resultat av att ingen överflyttning har skett alls, att överflyttning skett men i så liten omfattning att den inte syns i aggregerade siffror, eller att överflyttning har skett mellan alla trafikslag och i olika riktningar men med en liten resulterande nettoeffekt. För att närma oss vilka konkreta faktorer som kan påverka överflyttning av gods från väg har vi i denna rapport valt att kombinera en litteraturgenomgång och fallstudier genom intervjuer med svenska aktörer. Aktörerna representerar transportköpare, transportföretag, hamnar och terminaler. Genomgången visar att olika typer av generella styrmedel har möjliggjort och underlättat överflyttning, till exempel offentliga upphandlingar respektive avreglering av marknaden för godstransporter på järnvägen. Andra styrmedel har försvårat överflyttning, till exempel avgifter inom sjöfart. Företagen framhåller att det i första hand har varit möjligheten till att sänka kostnader som påverkat beslutet att transportera gods med järnväg eller sjöfart.

For several decades, modal shift within the freight transport sector has been promoted by policy makers as an important basis for achieving lower transport emission targets. Even though the literature on mode choice is well established, there is less consensus about the volume of freight with the potential to shift and, more importantly, the actual contribution of freight modal shift to achieving less climate and air pollution impacts. The climate contribution of freight modal shift can be increasingly questioned, as decarbonization is taking place at increasing rates within road freight transport. In this paper, the role of modal shift policies in realizing climate objectives is scrutinized by focusing on the case of Sweden, which serves to illustrate some general insights. We highlight how modal shift is often analyzed and discussed in isolation, even though it forms an important part of a policy mix in which it may contribute to achieving climate objectives. Treating modal shift as an objective in its own right may render less effective and cost-efficient policy instruments.

Denna slutrapport redogör för resultatet av projektet: AutoMon Del I—Automatisk trafikövervakning genom AI i svenska farvatten (TRV2019/95873). Projektägare är Linköpings universitet och genomförts tillsammans med Sjöfartsverket, SAAB, VTI, och Luftfartsverket. Vi kommer i denna rapport redogöra för resultaten samt diskutera framtida utmaningar med konceptet AutoMon. Syftet med AutoMon är att undersöka och belysa problemområdet automatiserad trafikövervakning genom att implementera en AI-demonstrator för svenska farvatten, initialt med fokus på att detektera anomalier i trafiken, och där hanteringen (dvs. granskning och lösning) av problemsituationer lämnas över till en mänsklig operatör. Förekomsten av fartygsolyckor och -incidenter, med potentiellt stora konsekvenser för individ och miljö - utanför etablerade VTS-områden - visar på behovet av utökad övervakning av sjötrafiken i svenska farvatten för att möjliggöra proaktiva åtgärder för att minimera olycksrisker till sjöss. Forskningsprojektet undersöker hur en hög nivå av automation kan användas för att upptäcka och hantera trafikavvikelser på svenskt vatten samt ge möjlighet till s.k. situational awareness (lägesbild) över hela dess yta, samtidigt som stöd för centralt eller distribuerat beslutsfattande ges. Runt om i världen förekommer även manipulation av AIS-systemet och dess positionsangivelser; ett problem som sannolikt kommer att öka även i Sverige. Båda problemställningarna är globala, vilket ger hög relevans. Lösningar har högt värde där digitalisering och artificiell intelligens kan användas som medel för ökad sjösäkerhet (safety och cyber security). 

The second sub-project of ELVIS demonstration project for longer and heavier freight trains aims to analyze the actual conditions for the use of longer trains and to evaluate the trial where a 730 metres long demonstration train (instead of a maximum of 630 metres) was operating between Gävle and Malmö 6–7 October 2012. One conclusion is that it is technically possible to operate trains that are longer than 630 metres but there are organizational barriers. To use the infrastructure more efficient, the project proposes the use of dedicated channels for longer freight trains in specific corridors as a temporary solution. The comparison of the demonstration train with up to 630 metres reference trains was hampered of that the central data describing the reference trains were difficult to access and partially uncertain. An important conclusion is that a better mapping of the current situation is needed in order to make reliable quantitative analysis. It was possible to compile information about the electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer of the demonstration train and the reference trains. However, it is difficult to quantify how the length of the train, the weight of the train, the speed, the number of stops etc. influence the electricity consumption one by one – both due to the quality of the data set and the fact that there is a quite large variation in electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer regardless which of the factors is studied. The impact of the topography and the length and weight of the train on the electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer can however be shown. The electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer of the demonstration train is generally lower than the consumption of the reference trains. It is possible, however, to conclude that electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer is generally not higher for longer trains, but it is impossible to say that consumption is generally lower. The literature and discussions with firms indicate that industry can reduce transport costs by using longer freight trains. However, economies of scale can only be exploited if locomotives traction capacity is not fully utilized today. It is obvious that the access to the rail infrastructure determine which train lengths and weights are commercially interesting. The electricity consumption per gross tonne-kilometer can possibly also reduced by using longer trains, but this cannot be stated without further notice. Running longer freight trains on a larger scale requires investments in tracks, terminals etc. The rough socio-economic calculations for the 750 metre long trains that have been carried out so far indicate that the investment costs are relatively modest. Though there is a need for analyzes for various train lengths as it is not obvious that the minimum length of 750 metres that is required for the TEN-T core network from 2030 is optimal.

VTI notat 28-2014 contains the ten underlying reports which is the base for VTI report 831: “Land based freight transports, climate and policy – Summary report”. In VTI report 831, the researchers discuss greenhouse gas emissions from freight transport and how they could be reduced. They address these questions from several different angles. For example, they discuss the introduction of so-called green corridors and propose tools to solve the complex coordination problems that are associated with these corridors. Furthermore, there is a discussion on how to view the climate change impact from shifting road to rail or electrified vehicles on road.

The purpose of this paper is to identify and classify the various initiatives developed and implemented across the globe for the abatement of maritime air emissions.

In this paper, an extensive survey of various sources was conducted, including the official reports of international and regional institutions, government policy documents, port authority websites, classification society pages, private firms’ sites and the academic literature. The initiatives were then categorized in accordance with the classification of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and analyzed using the SPSS Statistics software to give some insight into their frequencies and the interrelationships between them.

This exploratory review resulted in the establishment of a comprehensive global database of initiatives encouraged by the whole range of shipping stakeholders and decision-makers for the reduction of shipping air emissions. According to the findings, economic incentives that provide motivation for the adoption of less environmentally damaging practices are the most commonly used initiative, followed by infrastructure investments and informative policies.

The results provide implications for further research that include an in-depth analysis of ports’ policies, as well as an evaluation of initiatives applied on a large scale to map their emissions reduction potential for shipping.

The main contribution of this paper is the identification and analysis of all the diverse initiatives implemented globally in a comprehensive way and its dealing with air pollution from shipping as a whole.

The past decade has seen many new freight transport models for use in transport planning by public authorities. Some of these models have developed new concepts, such as logistics modules, inclusion of transshipments, storage and sourcing and the determination of shipment size.

This paper provides a review of the European literature on freight transport models that operate at the national or international level and have been developed since 2004. The introduction of elements of logistics thinking is identified as a common theme in recently developed models, and further worked out. Furthermore, ideas on what might be the next key developments in freight transport modelling are presented.

Despite the recognition of the role that biofuels play in achieving climate objectives in Sweden and the EU, there exists a gap in our understanding of how the production and distribution of biofuels impact Swedish greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, recent geopolitical events have highlighted the vulnerabilities stemming from the nation's reliance on imported fuel, elevating energy supply concerns to the realm of national security. These concerns underscore the need for a better comprehension of the evolution of fossil-free transportation systems. The objective of this study is to examine and map the production, distribution, and fuel demand in Sweden today to set the stage for future analyses that seek to explore how changes in logistics, transportation, and fuel production locations may affect greenhouse gas emissions in the country, particularly from an increased self-sufficiency in biofuel production in Sweden.

Another goal of this study is the establishment of a reference group, aimed at providing an accurate assessment and bridging potential knowledge gaps. To this end, we have collaborated with key organizations, including the Swedish Energy Agency and Drivkraft Sverige, a Swedish trade association for fuel industry. Additionally, we have initiated a partnership with Skogforsk, a forestry research institute with extensive knowledge in biofuel production from woody biomass – the resource with the greatest potential for large-scale biofuel production in Sweden. Through this study, we have laid a solid foundation for subsequent analyses, the outcomes of which will contribute improve biofuel distribution and provide recommendations for national policy measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

This study analyses how port governance systems in Europe have influenced the implementation of port initiatives focused on promoting modal shifts in freight transportation. Through a comprehensive review of port strategies, this research identified 49 individual modal shift initiatives among 21 port authorities in Europe. The results show that ports located in the Northern regions and managed by local governments, particularly in Belgium and the Netherlands, are leaders in executing strategies for modal shifts in freight transportation. Technological solutions and promoting intermodal transportation were found to be the most popular initiatives used to promote hinterland movements of freight by rail and waterborne transportation.

The purpose of this report is to make a cost benefit analysis, showing how costs for truck transports of round wood would change if vehicles with a total weight of 90 tonnes were used instead of the 60-tonne vehicles that are currently in use. The analysis has two parts. First, costs per vehicle kilometre are presented for both vehicle sizes. This gives a good general view but does not take into account the various conditions with regard to road type, etcetera, that affect costs. Neither does it take into account that the amount of vehicle kilometres associated with round wood transports changes if larger vehicles are allowed. Therefore a scenario analysis is also performed. The basis for this analysis is simulations using the Swedish transport and logistics system Samgods. Flow estimates from Samgods are combined with road attribute data from the national road database (NVDB) to compute the total transport cost, including externalities. In these computations road type and other situation specific factors are taken into account. The scenario analysis is summarized by the total annual cost for road transports of round wood in Sweden. Due to the simulations the amount of vehicle kilometres are reduced by 21 percent if 60-tonne vehicles are replace by 90-tonne vehicles, given that the capacity of bridges is left without regard. In socioeconomic terms this equals cost reduction of 4 per cent of 163 million Swedish crowns annually. It should be kept in mind, though, that costs for improving bridge capacity, which is required for this scenario to be realized, are not included in the analysis. When 90-tonne vehicles are not allowed to pass bridges with limited bearing capacity, larger vehicles do not generally improve efficiency. There are however some important round wood transport routes where larger vehicles are possible to use without any measures to improve bridges.

Användningen av förnybar energi i transportsektorn behöver öka för att vi ska nå de svenska klimatmålen om minskade växthusgasutsläpp från inrikes transporterna med 70 procent till 2030, och nettonollutsläpp från samtliga sektorer till 2045. Ökningen av förnybara drivmedel behöver ske i alla segment och över hela fordonsflottan.

Idag används främst diesel som drivmedel för tunga långväga godstransporter på väg men det finns alternativ för fossilfri framdrift.

 Denna studie har kvantifierat kostnadsstrukturer och analyserat riskfördelning mellan olika aktörer för fossilfria framdriftstekniker för tunga långväga godstransporter på väg och jämfört dem med alternativet att fortsätta använda diesel som drivmedel.

 Följande tekniker är inkluderade i studien: biobränslen (flytande och gasformiga), batterielektriska fordon (BEV), elvägar (tre olika tekniker), vätgasdrivna bränslecellsfordon (H2-FCEV) samt elektrobränslen. Beräkningar görs för år 2030 och 2045.

 Från de fem huvudkategorierna för fossilfri framdrift har ett antal representativa motortekniker, bränsleproduktionstekniker och råvaror valts ut för att analyseras i detalj. Detta har resulterat i ett trettiotal olika fossilfria alternativ till dagens användning av fossil diesel

För att nå de svenska klimatmålen om att minska växthusgasutsläppen från inrikes transporter (undantaget flyget) med 70 % till 2030 och om att nå nettonollutsläpp för samtliga sektorer till 2045 behöver användningen av förnybar energi i transportsektorn öka. Denna studie kvantifierar kostnadsstrukturer och analyserar riskfördelning mellan olika aktörer för fossilfria framdriftstekniker för tunga långväga godstransporter på väg. Följande tekniker är inkluderade i studien: biobränslen (flytande och gasformiga), elfordon med batterier (BEV), elvägar (tre olika tekniker), vätgasdrivna bränslecellsfordon samt elektrobränslen.

I denna studie görs också en jämförelse avseende de olika framdrivningsteknikernas växthusgasutsläpp där bränsle/energianvändning, batteriproduktion (för tekniker med elektrisk framdrivning) och elvägsinfrastruktur inkluderas.

 Analyserna görs för två typer av lastbilar: HGV40 och HGV60. HGV40 är en tung lastbil med en tillåten bruttovikt om max 40 ton som används inom hela Europa. HGV60 är en lastbil med en tillåten bruttovikt om max 60 ton som står för merparten av transportarbetet med lastbil i Sverige, men som bara är tillåten i ett fåtal andra europeiska länder. Beräkningar görs för år 2030 och 2045.

 Kostnader för de olika teknikalternativen redovisas i vad vi i denna studie har valt att kalla relativ mobilitetskostnad. Den relativa mobilitetskostnaden inkluderar: fordonens investeringskostnader, service och reparationer av fordon samt drivmedelskostnader. Drivmedelskostnaderna består av produktions- och distributionskostnader för drivmedel, där distributionskostnaderna inkluderar både direkta kostnader för distribution av drivmedel från produktionsanläggning till pump, samt investeringskostnader och underhåll för distributionsinfrastruktur (d.v.s. underhåll för elväg, ladd-infrastruktur eller tankstation). Genom att tydligt presentera de olika delarnas bidrag till den relativa mobilitetskostnaden erhålls en bild av hur kostnaderna för de olika framdrivningsteknikerna fördelar sig mellan fordonsinvestering, service och reparation av fordon, drivmedelsproduktionskostnader och distributionsinfrastruktur. Alla kostnader beräknas utan skatter och avgifter. En analys som visar påverkan på den relativa mobilitetskostnaden då man belastar alternativen med en CO2e-kostnad för bränsle/energianvändningen inkluderas också i studien. Studiens sammanställning av hinder och risker för de olika alternativen baseras på kostnadsanalysen, växthusgasjämförelsen och en litteraturgenomgång med fokus på ekonomiska, tekniska, infrastrukturrelaterade risker men också miljöpåverkan och tillgång på råvaror.

För att nå de svenska klimatmålen om att minska växthusgasutsläppen från inrikes transporter (undantaget flyget) med 70% till 2030 och om att nå nettonollutsläpp för samtliga sektorer till 2045behöver användningen av förnybar energi i transportsektorn öka. Denna studie kvantifierar kostnadsstrukturer och analyserar riskfördelning mellan olika aktörer förfossilfria framdriftstekniker för tunga långväga godstransporter på väg. Följande tekniker är inkluderade i studien: biobränslen (flytande och gasformiga), elfordon med batterier (BEV), elvägar (tre olika tekniker), vätgasdrivna bränslecellsfordon samt elektrobränslen.

I denna studie görs också en jämförelse avseende de olika framdrivningsteknikernas växthusgasutsläpp där bränsle/energianvändning, batteriproduktion (för tekniker med elektrisk framdrivning) och elvägsinfrastruktur inkluderas.

Analyserna görs för två typer av lastbilar: HGV40 och HGV60. HGV40 är en tung lastbil med en tillåten bruttovikt om max 40 ton som används inom hela Europa. HGV60 är en lastbil med en tillåten bruttovikt om max 60 ton som står för merparten av transportarbetet med lastbil i Sverige, men som bara är tillåten i ett fåtal andra europeiska länder. Beräkningar görs för år 2030 och 2045.

Kostnader för de olika teknikalternativen redovisas i vad vi i denna studie har valt att kalla relativ mobilitetskostnad. Den relativa mobilitetskostnaden inkluderar: fordonens investeringskostnader, service och reparationer av fordon samt drivmedelskostnader. Drivmedelskostnaderna består av produktions-och distributionskostnader för drivmedel, där distributionskostnaderna inkluderar bådedirekta kostnader för distribution av drivmedel från produktionsanläggning till pump, samt investeringskostnader och underhåll för distributionsinfrastruktur (d.v.s. underhåll för elväg, ladd-infrastruktur eller tankstation). Genom att tydligt presentera de olika delarnas bidrag till den relativa mobilitetskostnaden erhålls en bild av hur kostnaderna för de olika framdrivningsteknikerna fördelar sig mellan fordonsinvestering, service och reparation av fordon, drivmedelsproduktions-kostnader och distributionsinfrastruktur. Alla kostnader beräknas utan skatter och avgifter. En analys som visar påverkan på den relativa mobilitetskostnaden då man belastar alternativen med en CO2-kostnad för bränsle/energianvändningen inkluderas också i studien 

The Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth has assigned VTI to investigate the degree to which freight transport costs to and from the 44 municipalities in Sweden’s four northernmost counties are higher than for the rest of the country. The calculations undertaken in this report have mainly been done using the Swedish national freight model Samgods. The results of this report are to be used as an input to the Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth in its government assignment of analyzing additional costs of transport for companies in the transport subsidy area (Sweden’s four northernmost counties). 

The cost calculations made using the Samgods model and the calculated cost disparities, expressed in SEK per ton, show that there is an overall, support for the notion that transport costs are higher in the subsidized areas than outside subsidized areas. The clearest transport cost differential between companies inside/outside the subsidized area are found when transport costs are calculated for a hypothetical scenario where municipalities have identical industry structure. For a majority of the calculation methods, results show that one or more of the municipalities within the subsidized area do not exhibit additional transport costs. 

For all calculation methods, it is found that additional transport costs are higher for incoming transport than for outgoing transport; this finding is valid for the majority of municipalities. The calculated additional transport costs in some instances vary greatly between municipalities with a shared administrative border. A municipality with negative additional cost (i.e. with lower transport costs than the reference median) may neighbor a municipality with a very high level of additional transport cost; this has also been noted in previous studies. Regardless of calculation method, there are municipalities outside the subsidized area whose additional costs are found to be higher than for certain municipalities within the subsidized area.

Based on an assignment by the Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA), this report analyzes the sensitivity of freight transport on Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren regarding changes in fees and dues. The background for this study is that the SMA in 2018 introduced a new way of charging for fairway dues and pilot fees, and that the SMA in order to support a possible future revision of the charging system, needs more comprehensive knowledge regarding the development of traffic on Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren over time. This report studies the period 2016 to 2019. In this assignment, the SMA also requested answers to a series of specific questions. The answers to the following questions are given in the report: a) How much of the total transport cost for vessel trips calling at ports in Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren are made up of fees and dues levied by the SMA?, b) How are the charges distributed between fairway dues and pilot fees?, c) How has vessel traffic on Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren changed between 2016 and 2019?, d) Based on the changed system of charging for dues and fees during the period, has there been a modal shift from sea to land-based transport?, e) What does the composition of cargoes transported by sea look like, and has it changed over time?, f) What is the price elasticity with regard to shifting various types of goods to other modes of transport?, g) How have transport costs changed during the period for land-based transport compared to maritime transport? The following methods are applied: analysis of SMA’s revenues from fairway dues and pilot fees and Transport Analysis statistics Shipping goods, a literature review and cost calculations for some cases.

VTI has been assigned by the Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) to analyze the effects of the structural changes made to the charging system for fairway and pilot fees between 2017 and 2018. To study the effects of the changed system, the sum of fees extracted in 2018 with the sum of fees extracted in 2017 are compared, but the latter figure is scaled up to generate the same amount of total income as in 2018. This is in order to simulate a scenario where the SMA would have raised its fees but kept its previous charging system. Comparing the two outcomes illustrates how the fees extracted from different vessel segments and sizes were affected by the changes made to the charging system. When the total value of extracted fairway fees before and after the change according to the description above are analyzed, the total value of extracted fees was lowered for the tanker and bulk segments in 2018. This indicates that these segments benefited from the changed charging structure. The segments that were adversely impacted were container vessels, RoRo vessels and general cargo vessels. On average, the system in place since 2018 has led to lower environmental incentives per vessel than the system in place until 2017. However, the value of environmental incentives increased in 2019. The change in pilot fees had the largest effect on the RoRo and general cargo segments. For the general cargo segment, the change led to an increase in the value of pilot fees charged per service of around 1 500 SEK and for RoRo vessels, the change is calculated to have led to a reduced average pilotage fee of around 2 600 SEK per service. In order to provide an overall view of how sensitive maritime transport is regarding changes in fairway dues and pilot fees, an analysis has been undertaken in which transport costs for a few trade links have been calculated. Simple cost comparisons like this can primarily be of use in highlighting the economies of scale inherent in shipping and rail transport operations. In order to study the extent of competition between modes, other logistical factors such as inventory holding, frequency of service, flexibility etc. need to be considered.

The purpose of this report is to study how policy instruments for a modal shift of long-haul freight transport movements with a point of origin and/or destination in Sweden, from road to rail or sea, affects the distribution of freight tonne-kilometres across the different modes of transport and their direct emissions of greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxides, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter to air. The report also analyses whether the Swedish climate objective for domestic transport in 2030 can be expected to be fulfilled. The analysis is conducted in two steps. First, possible developments of freight tonne-kilometres and emission levels until 2030 and 2040 are compared to current figures reflecting 2017. This is done by developing a set of alternative prognoses and analyzing these using the national freight transport model Samgods. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments are analyzed with respect to modal split and emissions to air. The effects of policy instruments are evaluated for the present (reflecting 2017) and for the 2030 and 2040 prognoses. To conduct the analysis, emission factors per tonne-kilometre have been developed for each of the Samgods model’s six road freight vehicles, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types.

Given the conditions that are assumed in the prognoses, the amount of freight tonne-kilometres is calculated to increase by between 31 and 53 percent between 2017 and 2040. The increase is generally largest for maritime transport, followed by road transport and smallest for rail transport. Despite the large increase of freight tonne-kilometres, emissions of greenhouse gases are calculated to decrease by 50 to 60 percent. The assumed technological development is thus calculated to be able to carry the prognosticated growth in tonne-kilometres, given a high rate of biofuel blending. According to the calculated results, greenhouse gas emissions from domestic freight transport can be reduced by 57 percent at most between 2010 and 2030. This means that the freight transport segment cannot achieve its share of emissions reductions to reach the objective of a 70 percent reduction over the period. Emissions of nitrogen oxides are expected to reduce by between 60 and 75 percent, emissions of sulphur dioxides to reduce by between 41 and 50 percent, emissions of volatile organic compounds to increase by 8 to 30 percent and emissions of particulate matter (from exhaust and tyre/road wear) are calculated to increase by between 13 and 33 percent.

The objective of this paper is to determine how policy instruments targeting a modal shift of long-haul freight transport from road to rail or shipping might affect the distribution of freight tonne-kilometers across the different modes of transport in Sweden. The analysis is conducted in two steps. First, possible developments of freight tonne-kilometers until 2030 and 2040 are compared to base figures for 2017. This is done by developing a set of alternative forecast models where different assumptions and scenarios prevail and analyzing these using Sweden’s national freight transport model SAMGODS. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments – a wear and tear tax for road traffic and an ecobonus scheme to promote shipping by rail and sea – are analysed with respect to modal split in the base year of 2017 and for the forecast year 2040. The analysis involves the aggregation of calculated modal shares across each of the SAMGODS model's vehicle/ship types – i.e., six road freight vehicles, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types. Given the conditions that are assumed in the forecasts, the amount of freight tonne- kilometers is calculated to increase by between 31% and 53 % between 2017 and 2040. The increase is generally largest for maritime transport, followed by road transport and smallest for rail transport. The concept developed in this paper can be useful in studying impacts of different types of technology shifts and policy packages.

The objective of this paper is to determine how policy instruments which aim to achieve a modal shift of long-haul freight transport from road to rail or sea affect the direct emissions to air of greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxides, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. The analysis is conducted in two stages. First, a range of forecasts reflecting different assumptions are applied using the Swedish national freight transport model (SAMGODS) to derive a range of possible future developments of emissions levels up to 2030 and 2040. This has involved determining emission factors per tonne-km for each of the SAMGODS model's six road freight vehicle types, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types. The model outcomes are then compared to those of the base year of 2017. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments are analyzed with respect to their potential impact on emissions to air. The effects of these two policy instruments are evaluated for the base-year of 2017 and for the 2030 and 2040 forecasts. The paper also analyzes whether the Swedish climate objective for domestic transport in 2030 can be expected to be fulfilled given different forecasts and policy instruments. Within the context of a predicted large increase in total freight tonne-km (between 31 and 53%), emissions of greenhouse gases are calculated to decrease by 50 to 60% by 2040. This means that the Swedish freight transport sector will not achieve its share of greenhouse gas emissions reductions necessary to attain the national climate objective of a 70% reduction by 2030. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are forecast to reduce by between 60 and 75%, emissions of sulfur dioxides to reduce by between 41 and 50%, emissions of volatile organic compounds to increase by 8 to 30% and emissions of particulate matter (from exhaust and tyre/road wear) are calculated to increase by between 13 and 33%. Using modal shift policy instruments to achieve greenhouse gas reductions is calculated to attain worse results over time, by 2040 it might even be counterproductive

The objective of this paper is to determine how policy instruments which aim to achieve a modal shift of long-haul freight transport from road to rail or sea affect the direct emissions to air of greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxides, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter. The analysis is conducted in two stages. First, a range of forecasts reflecting different assumptions are applied using the Swedish national freight transport model (SAMGODS) to derive a range of possible future developments of emissions levels up to 2030 and 2040. This has involved determining emission factors per tonne-km for each of the SAMGODS model's six road freight vehicle types, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types. The model outcomes are then compared to those of the base year of 2017. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments are analyzed with respect to their potential impact on emissions to air. The effects of these two policy instruments are evaluated for the base-year of 2017 and for the 2030 and 2040 forecasts. The paper also analyzes whether the Swedish climate objective for domestic transport in 2030 can be expected to be fulfilled given different forecasts and policy instruments. Within the context of a predicted large increase in total freight tonne-km (between 31 and 53%), emissions of greenhouse gases are calculated to decrease by 50 to 60% by 2040. This means that the Swedish freight transport sector will not achieve its share of greenhouse gas emissions reductions necessary to attain the national climate objective of a 70% reduction by 2030. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are forecast to reduce by between 60 and 75%, emissions of sulfur dioxides to reduce by between 41 and 50%, emissions of volatile organic compounds to increase by 8 to 30% and emissions of particulate matter (from exhaust and tyre/road wear) are calculated to increase by between 13 and 33%. Using modal shift policy instruments to achieve greenhouse gas reductions is calculated to attain worse results over time, by 2040 it might even be counterproductive. 

A new Swedish national goods transportation model, SAMGODS, has been developed through collaboration among Swedish transport authorities. As the model recently has begun to be applied to real world problems, the need for a validation database has increased. The purpose of such a database is to facilitate validations of the model. The current paper presents a pilot study to create a validation database for SAMGODS. The study focuses on two areas: available data sources that may provide validation data, and how to carry out the validation in practice. The latter is of particular importance since a large number of practical problems arise when matching SAMGODS output data with the validation data. Worth mentioning among the problems that arise are: the inhomogeneous structure of the data tables, the often differing aggregation levels between model output data and validation data, differing time periods, differing systems for commodity groups and elasticities not being immediately available from the SAMGODS data. Other complicating issues are handling of confidential data and the large quantities of data. In this report, a relatively detailed proposal for the design of a validation database is put forward. However, the proposed design is not limited to SAMGODS output data, but it is hoped to be sufficiently flexible to comprise also other goods transportation data from future regional or local models. One of the main ideas in designing the database has been to develop a uniform and flexible data table format in which all relevant data can be stored. This format greatly facilitates the matching between SAMGODS output data and the validation data. Other problems and associated possible solutions are thoroughly discussed.

This report deals with questions concerning validation of the Swedish national goods transportation model, Samgods. To some degree, also more general issues of validation are discussed. When developing transportation models it is essential to have independent data available that can be used for comparison, validation and calibration. The quality and availability of such data are obvious issues. It is a big advantage if these data cover many different aspects of the model results and are collected on a regular basis. In the report, a survey of data sources useful for validation purposes is presented. For each source of data, quality and availability is discussed. For statistical data, the method for collecting the data is described in some detail as well as uncertainties and access to the data that may be restricted due to privacy regulations. A special section in the report is devoted to investigating if present day intelligent transport systems (ITS) can provide data for validation purposes. Once the compilation of validation data is completed, many problems remain concerning the validation. In particular, there is a matching problem between the model output data and validation data. The many different table formats and aggregation levels for the data add to the complexity of this problem. A similar, but easier, problem is to compare output data from different versions of Samgods. Within the project a computer program has been developed that can be used for matching such kinds of datasets. The program, as well as a user manual for it, is included in the report.

There is limited knowledge about the valuation of reduced transport time variability for freight transports. This paper analyses a Swedish grocery company’s transports by shuttle train, as a case study. The distribution of the train arrival time is analyzed; it is shown that the 10 per cent worst delays contribute to more than half of the total train delays. Type and amount of the firm’s precautionary and operative costs are identified and calculated. It is shown that it is possible to get estimates for the cargo component of the VTTV (Value of Transport Time Variability) valid for the specific company based on the precautionary costs, the operative costs for delays and for the costs for cancellations separately or in combination. Further case studies are advocated in order to cover the whole freight transport market and study the differences between different segments of the market.    

This paper analyzes how freight train delays are distributed with respect to size, location and time of their occurrence. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data covering all freight train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009 in Sweden. Moreover, the link between capacity usage and expected delay is analyzed using the fact that demand fluctuates on different time scales, especially due to the economic chock in 2009. Since the distribution of delays on different scales describe reliability and vulnerability in the rail transport system, the results have potentially important policy implications for rail investment appraisal

Unreliable rail transports are the main contributor to the transport time variability. The Swedish Transport Administration registered around 40 000 delay hours in 2012, which corresponds roughly to 20 million tonne-delay-hours, given that 500 tonnes per train is assumed to be the average load. This figure is 10 times higher than the corresponding figure for road transports. Information about the reliability of the rail transports and how different policy measures influence i.e. the number and length of delays and or the risks for delays has been limited. The former has been improved in recent years but the latter is still a problem. The lack of underlying data is one reason why the recommended Value of reduced transport time variability (VTTV) have only been applied in a few rail infrastructure projects. Nevertheless, the industry complains about the extensive problems caused by train delays or cancellations and that the reduction of these problems is not taken into account in a proper way in the cost benefit analyses (CBA). Another question that is debated is how much more high value products would be transported by rail if the rail transports would be more reliable. The value of the outgoing goods transported by road (SEK 9.5 per kg) is about three times the value of the outgoing goods transported by rail or rail in combination with other modes (SEK 3.7 per kg). The Transport Administration are aware of the shortcomings and has among others funded this pilot study that studies different approaches to calculate the VTTV for the cargo transported. The following parts were carried out in the pilot study: • Part One presents the Stated preference studies (SP-studies) to calculate VTTS (Value of Transport Time Savings) and VTTV that have been carried out recently in The Netherlands and Norway. Part One also discusses to what extent the VTTV calculated in the Dutch and Norwegian SP-studies can be transferred to Sweden. It is shown that the VTTV calculated in the Dutch and Norwegian SP-studies in principle can be transferred to Sweden. However, empirical studies that are adjust with respect to the commodity mix, the transport distances, level of congestion etc. in Sweden are needed. • In Part Two three alternative approaches to calculate VTTV for Swedish rail freight transports are demonstrated, that to the best of our knowledge have not been implemented before o Precautionary costs approach, o COOP case study, o Stock market approach. The report includes a table that summarizes VTTV for goods carried by rail, calculated using the different approaches.

Transporttidsvinster (TTS) och minskad transporttidsvariation (TTV) för gods-och passagerartrafik är viktiga nyttoposter i de samhällsekonomiska kalkylerna inom transportsektorn. Ett av antagandena som behöver göras är den monetära värderingen av TTS och TTV – VTTS och VTTV. Resenärers värderingar av dessa mått baseras oftastpå SP-studier (Stated Preference). VTTS för godstrafik baseras på kostnaden för kapitalbindningen i, och därmed värdet av, godset. I nuläget antas VTTV vara lika med det dubbla VTTS. Transportörers nyttor av minskad transporttid och transporttidsvariation beräknas som en del av transportkostnaderna (i andra poster i kalkylen). Detta projekt fokuserar på VTTV för godstransporter.

Den här rapporten består av två delar. Kapitel 2, som är skrivet av WSP, Handelshögskolan vid Göteborgs Universitet och Logistics Landscapers, beskriver WP 4 som handlar om vilket mått som ska användas för transporttidens variation, vilka delar VTTV består av samt härleder en matematisk modell för att beräkna VTTV.

Syftet med WP 4 var ursprungligen att kartlägga och utvärdera olika mått för transporttidsvariationen (TTV). Med mått menas enheten som används för att kvantifiera variationen, som exempelvis standardavvikelsen eller den genomsnittliga förseningen. En litteraturstudie har genomförts där använda mått i 22 tidigare samhällsekonomiska studier i Sverige ochutomlands listas. En slutsats av litteraturstudien är att många olika mått använts, vilka kan kategoriseras under

• Standardavvikelse
• Spridning (ofta i form av skillnad mellan percentiler)
• Andel av sändningar som är försenade
• Genomsnittlig försening (om försenad)

Fördelar och nackdelar med de olika måtten diskuteras. En annan slutsats är att valet av mått sällan diskuteras i de genomgångna studierna, utan man verkar ha valt ett mått som passar undersökningsmetoden. Vidare har det undersökts om det används mått inom logistikbranschen som skulle kunna passa TTV inom samhällsekonomin. Slutsatsen är att dessa mått (eller indikatorer) är framtagna med andra syften och för användning på mikronivå (företag eller enskilda transportkedjor) vilket gör det svårt att tillämpa dem på makronivå. Dock finns ett behov av mått på en mesonivå som gör det möjligt att analysera förändringar i transportsystemet ur båda perspektiv – samhällets och enskilda aktörers.

The purpose of this report is to compile and assess the research and knowledge base with regards to what determines the choice of mode from a business perspective. The literature review is based on grey research and scientific articles within transport economics and logistics.

The literature identifies a range of factors that can potentially affect the decision-makers in their choice of transport mode. The factors that are reviewed in this survey are those that commonly occur within the literature and often deemed the most relevant.

First, the influence of shipment attributes (value, damage sensitivity, time sensitivity, weight, density and volume) and transport distance are discussed. Surveys and behavioural studies show how the competitiveness of the transport modes depend on shipment attributes and transport distance. For certain shipments, the distance class and commodity type are such that it is only realistic to use a specific mode. Other factors that usually matter for the choice of mode will have little impact on the choice. The exact size of the contestable market is hard to measure, but it is likely that for a significant part of the goods flows on the freight transport market it is only realistic to use one specific transport mode.

Second, the review analyses how the choice of mode is influenced by modal characteristics (transport cost, transport time, reliability, shipment frequency and damage risk). The importance of these characteristics vary across decision-makers, partly according to transport distance and commodity class, but is generally relatively low. In other words, the propensity to switch transport mode as modal characteristics change is relatively low. This may be due to the effects only measuring the impact in the short and medium term, that they are based on changes in a single factor holding other determinants constant or that the analysis miss how decision-makers actually weigh in modal characteristics in their choice of transport mode.

Third, the review discusses how the firms’ choice of distribution and production strategies entails possibilities and limits for its choice of transport mode. This analysis identifies multiple factors that tend to facilitate the choice of multimodal transport chains and direct rail or sea transports. These factors mitigate the effect of multimodal transports’ disadvantages or facilitate the utilization of its advantages. Generally, this entails promoting shipments of larger volumes and economies of scale that can be utilized by rail and sea transports.

Fourth, the transport contract and the relationship between buyers and sellers of transport services are investigated. The contract can facilitate or limit the choice of transport mode by distributing risk and limit the way the firms can perform their operations. A close cooperation between transport buyers and transport companies can make the parties more aware of this possibilities and problems that the transport solution entails.

The report aims to present and analyze the development of the environmentally differentiated fairway dues in Sweden and the impacts of the system. A system differentiated for sulphur oxides (SOx) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) was introduced in 1998. The implementation of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) stricter SOx requirements in the Baltic and North Sea areas in 2015 made the SOx differentiation obsolete. In 2018 the system was replaced by a new fee system with different differentiation.

The Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) is responsible for determining and collecting the fairway dues and is also dependent on this income as an important source of funding for its activities. The amounts to be paid and the emission levels that are necessary to be eligible for a certificate that entitles discounts are stated in the SMA’s regulations on fairway dues. These regulations have changed over the years and to give an overview of these changes a presentation of regulations and found amendments is provided.

Except for some early studies evaluating the first few years of the environmentally differentiated fairway dues, little has been done to evaluate the impact of the policy instrument that was in place for 20 years. The information found in previous studies, annual reports and available data provided by the SMA is compiled and analyzed to present the impacts of the fairway dues from 1998 to 2017.

The numbers and characteristics of vessels with SOx and NOx reduction certificates are compiled from several sources. Abatement techniques and costs are discussed. Available estimates of reduced emissions from certified vessels are presented and analyzed. As far as possible, the costs and benefits for society of reduced emissions are compared and the contribution to fulfillment of environmental objectives is discussed. More emphasis is placed on the NOx differentiation since problems with high levels of NOx emissions remain whereas SOx emissions have declined substantially in the Baltic Sea, especially since the implementation of stricter IMO requirements.

• Evaluation of a globally unique system of environmentally differentiated fairway dues.
• The evolution of the system and its effects are analyzed.
• Emissions reductions achieved and associated abatement costs are estimated.
• Costs and benefits for society are compared.
• Abatement costs for both SOx and NOx substantially lower than value to society.

The impact of policy instruments supposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from road freight transports may seem smaller than expected. Using insights from economics and contract theory, the paper sorts out the (possible) instances of market failure in the freight transport market; operator market power, asymmetric information split incentives, and public goods. The primary limitations of standard policy instruments are demonstrated to be linked to unobservable information. Some of these may be reduced but not eliminated as information technologies develop, making it possible to observe, verify and provide contract-relevant information to the uninformed parties. There is little reason to believe that possible market failures present major limitations to the efficiency of economic instruments geared toward protecting the climate, other than possibly in the short run.

The advanced internationalisation of markets and production processes continuously adds to the complexity of supply chains. At the same time improving the sustainability of the related international freight transport processes and optimising their efficiency is becoming a topic of central relevance. International freight transport models are an important tool to simulate impacts of measures taken to achieve such improvements of transport processes. Yet, the requirements towards international freight transport models are complex: they need to include various modes of transport, they need to cover different industries and their dynamics, they need to consider seasonality of supply and demand of goods, demographic parameters, economic developments, technological developments including their impact on production processes and structures, and many other aspects. Furthermore, international freight transport models need to include freight flows within countries as well as freight flows between the considered countries.

This paper discusses the challenges which need to be confronted when developing international freight transport models which are able to correspond to the described complexity of international freight transport. Furthermore, it maps out the most important research gaps which need to be addressed by international freight transport modelling research in order to ensure that the challenges identified are captured within the models developed to improve international freight transport.

VTI has been commissioned by the Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) to analyze the impact of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) more stringent sulfur regulations, which will enter into force in 2015 in the Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA) which includes North Sea, Baltic Sea and the English Channel. A similar analysis was conducted in 2009, but an update has been justified (due to that) since there is new information available and that the implementation is approaching. The current analysis is based on three investigation scenarios, selected by the SMA. These scenarios are simulated in the national freight model Samgods (test version of the new Samgods model), which is a cost minimizing model. An earlier version of Samgods was used in the analysis in 2009.

This project was conducted upon a request from the Swedish Agency for Transport Analysis (Trafikanalys), with a governmental assignment to annually report the rate of internalisation per mode for passenger and freight transports. In its 2013 report, the Agency wishes to show examples of how the marginal costs and the internalising taxes and fees vary within and between European countries. With this background, VTI was given the assignment to analyse ten freight routes in Europe within the Narvik (Norway)–Naples (Italy), and Oslo (Norway)– Rotterdam (the Netherlands) corridors. The corridors were stated in the assignment from the Transport Analysis Agency. During the project, two reference group meetings were held with the following participants: Kenneth Wahlberg (Swedish Transport Administration), Stefan Back (TransportGruppen), Katarina Handel (Swedish Maritime Administration), Gunnar Eriksson (Transport Analysis), Rein Juriado (Vinnova) and Anders Ljungberg (our Transport Analysis contact). Further, Glenn Hakansson (former truck driver) helped out in selecting the routes for the road transports. The authors would like to thank all participants for their helpful comments.

The aim of this project is to analyse when, if and how a transport cost reduction, following an infrastructure investment affecting international freight transports, should be allocated between countries in a cost-benefit analysis (CBA). In order to analyse this question, the project has been split into two stages. This first stage aims at presenting a more general picture of how the user benefits could be allocated according to the scientific literature, how recommendations on this issue are designed in other countries CBA guidelines, and whether this issue is treated in the planning process of transnational infrastructure projects. The available, but scarce, scientific literature indicates that the allocation of user benefits can have substantial effects on the profitability of infrastructure measures. Having studied CBA guidelines and CBAs of transnational infrastructure projects, the conclusion from our study is that to our knowledge, no other country has a well-founded allocation method that could be implemented in Sweden. Finally, the literature does not offer any strong recommendations or straightforward theoretical methods, with the exception of a first suggestion by Fosgerau and Buus Kristensen (2005).

External effects or externalities “consist of the costs and benefits felt beyond or ‘external to’ those causing the effect” (Anderson, 2006). In the case of transportation, the negative externalities (costs) can take the form of air pollution, noise and accidents. Since external effects do not have a market price, external effects are a form of market failure.Wear and tear of the infrastructure isexternal to individual drivers andoperators,and thus also includedin the analysis.

External costs can be internalised in various ways e.g. through regulatory measures, technological development or taxes and charges. Some forms of taxation are more effective than others in internalising costs. For example, fuel tax is effective in reducing CO2emissions as it will tend to promote technological change to reduce emissions per kilometre travelled as well as reducing the kilometres driven. A fixed, undifferentiated annual tax on owning a vehicle will, on the other hand, be ineffective in relation to reducing CO2emissions. While it will have some impact on reducing vehicle ownership (and thus indirectly vehicle use), it will not affect kilometres driven by individual vehicles. In this paper the focus is on the “rate of internalisation”. This term is used to describe to what extent the marginal external costs, based on existing regulations and technology (e.g. the European Emission Trading Scheme and emissions classes for road vehicles), are compensated for through charges or taxes. Internalisation at a certain time is thus expressed as the ratio between average charges and taxes on the one hand, and marginal external costs on the other. In this case, a full rate of internalisation would imply that the transport companies are fully charged for the marginal negative effects caused by their transport. If the ratio is below 1, the taxes and charges levied are lower than the existing marginal external costs to society, i.e. there is an under-internalisation.

The aim of this project is to study the rate of internalisation of external effects through taxes and charges in two European freight corridors during 2012; for road, rail, and sea transport, respectively.The study is based on two presumed freight corridors, between Norway (Narvik) and Italy(Naples), and between Norway (Oslo) and the Netherlands (Rotterdam).

The analysis is further differentiated on a national level, where each country constitutes one segment of the transport.

Despite high ambitions, policies for a modal shift in Europe have largely been unsuccessful. Part of the explanation relates to the inelasticity of freight transport demand. Understanding the demand elasticity of freight transport is important to design and appraise policies for external cost reductions in the transport sector. There have been many studies focused on estimating the elasticity of demand for short-sea shipping, a mode which policy makers have often aimed to strengthen to facilitate a modal shift from road freight. The objective of this review is to build upon the available literature by presenting and comparing estimated elasticities and to demonstrate the state of evidence through the application of two methodological approaches. Our review shows that there is a surprising degree of variation in elasticity estimates, part of which can likely be explained by differing methodological approaches. Applying a deterministic cost-minimising freight transport model and a stochastic multinomial logit approach based on responses from the Swedish Cargo Flow Survey, we demonstrate the inelasticity of Swedish maritime freight flows and provide suggestions for future research and policy discussions. For future studies of maritime transport demand elasticities to arrive at reliable and policy-relevant results, we highlight the need for combined and pluralistic methodological approaches and an increased use of real-world data.

The Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) charges commercial shipping fairway dues and pilot fees. The revenues from these charges account for over 70 percent of the SMA’s total revenues. Every five years, the SMA reviews its charging model. The next upcoming review is due in 2023, at which point a revised charging model is expected to be implemented. Long-term changes to the charging model are expected to be implemented in 2028. VTI, in cooperation with the SMA and the Ports of Sweden, is undertaking the research project “Fairway dues and pilot fees 2028: How to foster competitive and sustainable shipping?”. The purpose of the project is to deliver analyses and results relevant to the decision making regarding short-term changes to the charging model in 2023 and long-term changes in 2028. This report is a partial delivery of the project. 

The purpose of the report is twofold. Firstly, the purpose is to analyze and account for the effects of fairway dues and pilot fees on maritime traffic in Sweden, using previous literature and original empirical analyses of previous fee changes. Secondly, the purpose is to describe the likely consequences of a spectrum of possible future changes to the charging model. This report therefore estimates and presents the likely impacts on different vessel segments following a series of hypothetical fee changes.

Sjöfartsverket har gett VTI i uppdrag att granska ett förslag till ny modell för uttag av farledsavgifter, ett förslag som Sjöfartsverket tagit fram och som ska gälla från den 1 januari 2023. Förslaget förutsätts vara intäktsneutralt, det vill säga att tarifferna i det nya förslaget ska generera lika stora intäkter som de totala intäkterna ur det nuvarande systemet. I uppdraget ingår inte att studera några effekter av förändrade lotsavgifter. Uppdraget består av två delmål: 

1) VTI ska genomföra en oberoende konsekvensanalys av förslaget till reviderade farledsavgifter. Mot bakgrund av resultaten i Merkel m.fl. (2021) ska de samlade förändringar som Sjöfartsverket föreslår testas, med betoning på Sjöfartsverkets intäktsmassa och farledsavgifternas fördelning mellan handelssjöfartens olika segment. 

2) VTI ska analysera förslaget ur ett samhällsekonomiskt perspektiv. Mot bakgrund av de studier som VTI genomfört rörande effekter av avgiftsförändringar på sjöfartens trafikering i svenska hamnar ska eventuella effekter på anlöp (trafikeringseffekter) och trafikslagsval för godstransporter (överflyttningseffekter) redovisas. Därtill ska VTI analysera vilka övriga fördelningseffekter som väntas orsakas av förslaget, inklusive effekter på inlandshamnar och olika näringsgrenar. 

Tillvägagångssättet för konsekvensanalysen beskriven i delmål 1 bygger vidare på det arbete med konsekvensanalyser som tidigare gjorts av VTI, där en beräkningsmodell konstruerats för att följa upp förväntade effekter av avgiftsförändringar. Tillvägagångssättet för att analysera effekter på trafikering, eventuella överflyttningseffekter och fördelningseffekter i delmål 2 är att sammanställa relevanta resultat från tidigare studier och tillämpa dessa på Sjöfartsverkets förslag till reviderad avgiftsmodell.

In moving towards a sustainable transport system, the Swedish government has stated that policy actions related to electrification and increasing the share of renewable fuels must be complemented with a modal shift of freight transport from road to rail and sea. The question addressed in this report is whether policies aimed specifically at improving the attractiveness of small ports in Sweden can contribute to an increased use of maritime transport by enabling more competitive services. Small ports are typically considered to be at a disadvantage due to not being able to achieve economies of scale and their lack of connectivity to large trade routes. There are significant economies of scale in port operations but increasing the competitiveness of small and peripheral ports may be key to achieving a modal shift. This study sets out to investigate broadly what would be required for maritime transport services utilizing small ports to be competitive vis-à-vis competing land-based services.

Swedish small ports are at a structural disadvantage in several respects. For several small ports, users face higher costs of pilotage due to long and time-consuming navigational approaches. The current structure of fairway dues is not set up to incentivize maritime services consolidating/de-consolidating cargo at several small ports. The sum of port-related costs is high in general, which incentivizes a reduction in the number of port calls and favours a rationalization of avoidable visits at small ports.

In order to investigate the potential for small ports to contribute to a modal shift, we simulate the effect of four policy scenarios aimed to improve the competitiveness of maritime freight transport as a modal alternative or to improve the competitiveness of small ports specifically. These scenarios are 1) reducing maritime transport costs, 2) increasing road transport costs, 3) reducing the costs of cargo handling at small Swedish ports and 4) reducing cargo handling times at small Swedish ports.

The results show that all simulated scenarios would lead to an increase in the modal share of maritime freight transport. However, the effect of the policies that either reduce maritime transport costs overall or increase road transport costs have a greater effect on the modal split than the policies aimed specifically at small ports. The interesting finding is made that most of the increased maritime tonnage that would follow as a result of more competitive maritime freight services would be absorbed by small ports in the system. The study shows that in order to enact a successful modal shift strategy, small and peripheral ports need be considered as part of the solution. If extending the sea legs of intermodal freight trips is an objective, it is crucial to maintain a geographically diverse and highly functioning port system in order to serve the needs of shippers and cargo owners. We highlight the need for future research to more comprehensively assess how underutilized potential in the entire port system can be used to promote competitive short-sea services as a modal alternative to road.

Syftet med denna PM är att kartlägga huruvida och på vilket sätt allmänna hamnar i Sverige miljödifferentierar sina avgifter. Detta görs för att bättre förstå dagens situation samt att undersöka vilken eller vilka delar av avgiften som är differentierad och vilken innebörd detta kan ha för redare som uppfyller respektive inte uppfyller ställda krav på fartygs miljöprestanda. 

Kartläggningen visar att majoriteten av de allmänna hamnarna i Sverige tillämpar någon form av miljödifferentiering i bestämmandet av avgifter och taxor för anlöpande trafik. Miljödifferentieringen hamnarna emellan är dock inte samordnad. Som bas för miljödifferentieringen används en rad olika index och kriterier kopplade till fartygs miljöprestanda. Även rabattnivåerna som kan erhållas skiljer sig åt, även om många hamnar har valt att ha liknande nivåer. På grund av den bristande samordningen är det svårt att jämföra de olika hamnarna med varandra. 

Genomgången visar att drygt hälften av de allmänna hamnar som tillämpar miljödifferentierade avgifter använder sig av indexen Clean Shipping Index (CSI) eller Environmental Ship Index (ESI). Andra förekommande varianter är att hamnar utgår från äldre certifikatsystem för kväveoxid- och svaveloxidreduktion. Vissa hamnar ger rabatt om fartygen använder LNG för framdrift och/eller tillhandahåller miljödifferentierade fartygsavgifter och gör det billigare för redare om de kopplar upp fartyg till landansluten el. Det förekommer även investeringsstöd som åtgärd för att ge incitament för fartygen att ställa om, förutsatt att fartyget fortsätter att trafikera hamnen. 

Sammanfattningsvis pekar kartläggningen på att viss likriktning råder i hur avgifter miljödifferentieras, framför allt i de stora allmänna hamnarna. Det råder dock fortfarande en brist på koordinering, vilket visas av att många av de hamnar som tillämpar miljödifferentiering gör detta med olika baser för beräkning av rabatter. Dessutom tillämpar långt ifrån alla hamnar ett system som är kompatibelt med rabattsystemet för de statliga farledsavgifterna.

VTI has been commissioned to analyze the preconditions for, and possible consequences of introducing the possibility of regress in the railway industry. Regress refers to the possibility of anyone that is stricken by financial consequences of train delays caused by someone else, to reclaim these costs. Introducing a system of this nature would not increase costs to the industry but would transfer costs to the culpable party. To the extent that operators and the infrastructure holder adjusts the way in which activities are implemented, the risk for delays may shrink which in the long run may reduce prices and tariffs. A substantial part of the report is spent on the systems currently in place for registering delays and their consequences. It is demonstrated that the infrastructure holder runs a sophisticated system of this nature. The shortcomings of this system, which includes quality problems with registering the cause of delays and in particular shortcomings with respect to the possibility to register trains that are cancelled an/or rerouted, will most probably have to be rectified irrespective of the presence of a system with regress. The data collection system would then be appropriate also for handling regress. Most delays are small, resulting in limited consequences only for affected parties. The consequences of few major disturbances may however, be substantial, but it has not been feasible to make cost estimates of these costs.

A large share of Sweden’s aggregate use of energy is used in the transport sector, a third of which is used for freight transport purposes. Excluding the recent downturn in the business cycle, traffic and therefore also the use of energy, increases year by year. Against this background the present report provides a qualitative discussion of three aspects of the market for freight transport which may indicate that this development is not compatible with an efficient use of resources. A first possible reason for the increase in traffic, and thereby the increasing use of energy and other resources, can be related to the external effects of heavy traffic. It is well known that heavy vehicles wear the roads down, that they generate accident risks noise and congestion and also that the use of fossil fuel results in emissions. There are no guarantees that the transport industry automatically takes these effects into account in their decision making. The use of economic instruments is one possibility for internalising these effects. The review however demonstrates that current charges on users of railway infrastructure as well as taxes on fuel are insufficient for representing these costs. Even with conservative assumption the fuel tax should be doubled while track user charges on freight should increase with even more. The report also comprises a discussion about whether other (potential) market failures may affect the growth of transport volumes. To the extent that a (transport) corporation is able to control the price on some part of the market, there may be reason to break up this (local) monopoly. But even if a monopoly would not be eliminated, there are few indications that a welfare enhancing policy – should it be implemented – would not reduce the use of energy. The risk is rather that an unrestricted monopoly would lead to too small transport volumes. The industry is characterised by specific contracts between buyers and sellers of transport services.

The purpose of this report is to contribute to a better understanding of inland waterway transport (IWT) in Sweden, and to shed light on how public procurement can be designed to make better use of the potential of IWT. The aim is also to calculate benefits and costs that arise when IWT instead of road transport is procured. 

IWT makes up a very small portion of the total transport activity in Sweden compared with several other European countries. According to literature, this is explained by Sweden’s absence of waivers with respect to fees, staffing, qualifications, or pilot services. However, studies suggest that the potential for IWT in Sweden is limited, and the benefits of waivers targeted at IWT can be questioned.

Detta är en delrapport i Projektet Hållbar inlandssjöfart – offentlig upphandling som katalysator. En utgångspunkt för projektet är regeringens nationella godstransportstrategi där det framgår att en överflyttning av godstransporter från väg till järnväg och sjöfart ska främjas. Syftet med delrapporten är att utgöra ett kunskapsunderlag för att bättre förstå förutsättningarna för att bedriva inlandssjöfart i Sverige. Vi beskriver hur arbetet med inlandssjöfarten organiseras i Sverige och vilken roll offentlig upphandling och regelverk spelar för inlandssjöfartens konkurrenssituation. Praktiska erfarenheter vid offentliga upphandlingar i Stockholmsområdet med koppling till inlandssjöfart redovisas också. Jämförelser görs med Nederländerna, Tyskland, Belgien och Frankrike, länder med en betydligt högre andel inlandssjöfart av det totala transportarbetet jämfört med Sverige. I den huvudrapport som kommer publiceras under våren 2021 studeras även samhällsekonomiska effekter av att använda inre vattenvägar istället för vägar vid godstransporter i olika relevanta transportscenarier. Huvudrapporten kommer också innehålla förslag på riktlinjer för hur offentlig upphandling kan ta hänsyn till inlandssjöfarten som ett transportalternativ.

Förekomsten av sjöolyckor med potentiellt stora konsekvenser utanför VTS-områden (Vessel Traffic Service) men på svenskt vatten kan tyda på att det är lönsamt för samhället att utöka övervakningen av sjötrafiken. En fråga är hur en AI-baserad trafikövervakning kan användas för att upptäcka och hantera trafikavvikelser och att ge stöd till beslutsfattande och om en sådan lösning skulle vara samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt. De viktigaste datakällor, riktlinjer för samhällsekonomiska analyser och effektsamband analyseras ur ett svenskt perspektiv. Följande utvecklingsbehov identifieras: • Analysmetoder för nya/förändrade regelverk och tekniska lösningar behöver utvecklas. Det finns behov av att hantera sjöolyckornas skador på fartyg, last, infrastruktur och natur, som är av större betydelse än för vägtransporter (där personskador har störst betydelse). • Robusta effektsamband för sjösäkerhet saknas. Den befintliga olycksstatistiken och data som tas fram i forskningsprojekt, t ex om vilka farliga trafiksituationer som kan undvikas med hjälp av AI baserad trafikövervakning, bör utnyttjas för att ta fram effektsamband. • Det bör undersökas på vilket sätt FSA-metoden (Formal Safety Assessment) som rekommenderas av IMO (International Maritime Organization) för att utvärdera regleringar som påverkar sjösäkerheten och marina miljöer kan/bör användas i Sverige.