Model-based forecasts of future emissions are important tools for finding
strategies to reach the Swedish transport policy objective concerning effect
on climate and air pollution. In order for the calculated emissions to reflect
the actual situation, input data on kilometrage, vehicle types and vehicle
ages must be representative of the region of interest. High-quality forecasts
of these variables are therefore of great importance when estimating future
emissions. This report proposes a forecasting model system for the
compositions and use of the Swedish car fleet, based on experiences from
existing models in the literature. The system operates on two levels, an
aggregated (national or regional) level and a disaggregated (household or
personal) level. Forecasts of the total number of cars and total kilometrage
are provided from the aggregated models whereas the disaggregated models
provide the distribution of cars of different types and ages and the
distribution of kilometrage over the same classification of cars. These
results are then combined to give the final outcomes: the number and
kilometrage of cars of different types and ages.