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  • 1. Almström, Peter
    et al.
    Berglund, Svante
    KTH, Transport- och lokaliseringsanalys.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Jonsson, Daniel
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Land use planning and transport investment appraisal2011Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 2. Almström, Peter
    et al.
    Berglund, Svante
    KTH, Transport- och lokaliseringsanalys.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Jonsson, Daniel
    KTH, Transport- och lokaliseringsanalys.
    The impact of land use planning on Cost-Benefit Analysis rankings2011In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2011Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 3.
    Almström, Peter
    et al.
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Berglund, Svante
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Jonsson, Daniel
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    The impact of travel costs and economic growth on cost-benefit analysis rankings2012Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The use of Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) as a tool for selecting transport investments is often questioned. It is not unusual that politicians or others in the public debate argue that the outcome of a CBA completely rely on assumptions concerning a particular input factor, such as valuation of CO2 emissions or future fuel price. This paper explores whether the relative ranking of CBA outcomes are robust with respect to some key inputs in transport demand analysis driving cost, public transport fare and economic growth. We study six different infrastructure objects (three road and three rail objects) and four alternative assumptions on input factors compared to a reference scenario.

    The findings suggest that single input factors in a CBA, individually have a small impact on the ranking of the studied investments. In our model calculations we observe no change in rank between a road and a rail object.

  • 4.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Peak car?: Drivers of the recent decline in Swedish car use2015In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 42, 94-102 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It has long been well-known that economic variables such as GDP and fuel price as well as socio-demographic characteristics and spatial distribution are key factors explaining car use trends. However, due. to the recently observed plateau of total car travel in many high income countries, it has been argued that other factors, such as changes in preferences, attitudes and life-styles, have become more important drivers of car use. This paper shows that the two variables, GDP per capita and fuel price, explain most of the aggregate trends in car distances driven per adult in Sweden: as much as 80% over the years 2002 to 2012. The estimated elasticities are well in line with previous literature and can reasonably well reproduce the trend in car distances driven per adult back to 1980. We find, however, a substantial variation in elasticities between municipalities depending on public transport supply, population density, share of foreign-born inhabitants and the average income level.

  • 5.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Peak Car?: Drivers of  the recent decline in Swedish car use2014Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It has long been well-known that economic variables such as GDP and fuel price as well as socio-demographic characteristics and spatial distribution are key factors explaining car use trends. However, due to the recently observed plateau of total car travel in many high income countries, it has been argued that other factors, such as changes in preferences, attitudes and life-styles, have become more important drivers of car use.  This paper shows that the two variables GDP per capita and fuel price explain most of the aggregate trends in car distances driven per adult in Sweden: as much as 80% over the years 2002 to 2012. The estimated elasticities are well in line with previous literature and can reasonably well reproduce the trend in car distances driven per adult back to 1980. We find, however, a substantial variation in elasticities between municipalities depending on public transport supply, population density, share of foreign-born inhabitants and the average income level.

  • 6.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Peak Car for urban Swedish men?2014In: Proceedings of Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation (hEART),September 10, 2014 – September 12, 2014, Leeds, UK, 2014Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study long-term trends in regional car travel demand within and across socio-demographic groups in Sweden, using cross-sectional data from National Travel Surveys, spanning the period from 1978 to 2011. We find that the reduction in per-adult driving in Sweden mainly occurs among urban men. Urban men of all income groups reduced their driving for both commuting and non-commuting trips in conjunction with rising gasoline prices, which may have contributed to this development. We find that driving among those socio-demographic groups, who have better opportunities to reduce their driving, and driving for discretionary rather than commute purposes is being reduced over time. Sweden is ranked among the most gender-equal countries in the world; yet we find a substantial remaining gender gap in the share of adults driving a car on an average day, even when controlling for other socio-economic differences.

     

  • 7.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Explaining “peak car” with economic variables2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 2016, no 88, 236-250 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many western countries have seen a plateau and subsequent decrease of car travel during the 21st century. What has generated particular interest and debate is the statement that the development cannot be explained by changes in traditional explanatory factors such as GDP and fuel prices. Instead, it has been argued, the observed trends are indications of substantial changes in lifestyles, preferences and attitudes to car travel; what we are experiencing is not just a temporary plateau, but a true “peak car”. However, this study shows that the traditional variables GDP and fuel price are in fact sufficient to explain the observed trends in car traffic in all the countries included in our study: the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and (to a large extent) Australia and Germany. We argue that the importance of the fuel price increases in the early 2000s has been underappreciated in the studies that shaped the later debate. Results also indicate that GDP elasticities tend to decrease with rising GDP, and that fuel price elasticities tend to increase at high price levels and during periods of rapid price increases.

  • 8.
    Bratt-Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Flam, Harry
    Stockholms universitet.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Kågeson, Per
    KTH.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Jättestor nytta, men ännu större kostnad2016In: Dagens NyheterArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 9.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    A Communication Choice Model2003In: Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 10.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Diskussionsunderlag till ASEK: tolkningen av det transportpolitiska delmålet om jämställdhet2011Report (Other academic)
  • 11.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, Trafik och logistik.
    Forecasting demand for high speed rail2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, 81-92 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit-based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing the literature on travel time elasticities for long distance rail travel and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish long distance model, Sampers, and its forecast demand for a proposed new HSR, using aggregate data revealing how the air-rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The Sampers long distance model is also compared to a newly developed model applying Box-Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long distance travel, long distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Sampers model is indeed able to predict the demand for HSR reasonably well. The new non-linear model has even better model fit and also slightly higher elasticities.

  • 12.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Forecasting demand for high-speed rail2010In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2010Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Gender-related differences and similarities in travel behaviour: a life-cycle perspective. Evidence from Stockholm2011Report (Other academic)
  • 14.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Inter-temporal variation in the marginal utility of travel time and travel cost2010In: Proceedings of the 2010 World Conference on Transport Research, 2010Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 15.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Inter-temporal variation in the travel time and travel cost parameters of transport models2014In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, Vol. 41, no 2, 377-396 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The parameters for travel time and travel cost are central in travel demand forecasting models. Since valuation of infrastructure investments requires prediction of travel demand for future evaluation years, inter-temporal variation of the travel time and travel cost parameters is a key issue in forecasting. Using two identical stated choice experiments conducted among Swedish drivers with an interval of 13 years, 1994 and 2007, this paper estimates the inter-temporal variation in travel time and cost parameters (under the assumption that the variance of the error components of the indirect utility function is equal across the two datasets). It is found that the travel time parameter has remained constant over time but that the travel cost parameter has declined in real terms. The trend decline in the cost parameter can be entirely explained by higher average income level in the 2007 sample compared to the 1994 sample. The results support the recommendation to keep the travel time parameter constant over time in forecast models, but to deflate the travel cost parameter with the forecasted income increase among travellers and the relevant income elasticity of the cost parameter. Evidence from this study further suggests that the inter-temporal and the cross-sectional income elasticities of the cost parameter are equal. The average elasticity is found to be -0.8 to -0.9 in the present sample of drivers, and the elasticity is found to increase with the real income level, both in the cross-section and over time.

  • 16.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, Transporter och samhällsekonomi (stängd 20110301).
    Issues in Urban Travel Demand Modelling: ICT Implications and Trip timing choice2006Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Travel demand forecasting is essential for many decisions, such as infrastructure investments and policy measures. Traditionally travel demand modelling has considered trip frequency, mode, destination and route choice. This thesis considers two other choice dimensions, hypothesised to have implications for travel demand forecasting. The first part investigates how the increased possibilities to overcome space that ICT (information and communication technology) provides, can be integrated in travel demand forecasting models. We find that possibilities of modelling substitution effects are limited, irrespective of data source and modelling approach. Telecommuting explains, however, a very small part of variation in work trip frequency. It is therefore not urgent to include effects from telecommuting in travel demand forecasting. The results indicate that telecommuting is a privilege for certain groups of employees, and we therefore expect that negative attitudes from management, job suitability and lack of equipment are important obstacles. We find also that company benefits can be obtained from telecommuting. No evidences that telecommuting gives rise to urban sprawl is, however, found. Hence, there is ground for promoting telecommuting from a societal, individual and company perspective.

    The second part develops a departure time choice model in a mixed logit framework. This model explains how travellers trade-off travel time, travel time variability, monetary and scheduling costs, when choosing departure time. We explicitly account for correlation in unobserved heterogeneity over repeated SP choices, which was fundamental for accurate estimation of the substitution pattern. Temporal constraints at destination are found to mainly restrict late arrival. Constraints at origin mainly restrict early departure. Sensitivity to travel time uncertainty depends on trip type and intended arrival time. Given appropriate input data and a calibrated dynamic assignment model, the model can be applied to forecast peak-spreading effects in congested networks. Combined stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) data is used, which has provided an opportunity to compare observed and stated behaviour. Such analysis has previously not been carried out and indicates that there are systematic differences in RP and SP data.

  • 17.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Joint RP-SP data in a mixed logit analysis of trip timing decisions2008In: Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, ISSN 1366-5545, E-ISSN 1878-5794, Vol. 44, no 6, 1025-1038 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the current paper, a departure time choice model including travel time variability is estimated, combining stated preference and revealed preference data. We account for response scale differences between RP and SP data and, applying the mixed logit model, test for correlation of scheduling sensitivity across RP and SP choices within individuals. The analysis implies systematic differences in the RP and SP data. With support of the evaluation from the Stockholm trial, this indicates that SP is less trustworthy for trip timing analysis and forecasting, presumably because there are temporal differences in RP and SP choice situations.

  • 18.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Ministern har fel om infrastrukturen: Debattartikel2016In: Land, ISSN 0023-7531Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 19.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Modelling the preference for scheduled and unexpected delays2009In: Journal of Choice Modelling, ISSN 1755-5345, E-ISSN 1755-5345, Vol. 2, no 1, 29-50 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper describes a study undertaken to estimate a departure-time and mode-choice model for Stockholm. The model is segmented according to trip purpose, and a mixed - or error component - logit model is estimated. Estimation draws on stated preference data collected from drivers travelling toward the city centre during morning peak hours. The study uncovers drivers' preferences for scheduled delay, unexpected delay, travel time and cost as well the patterns of substitution between mode and time of day alternatives. The result indicates that disutility of unexpected delay depends on the scheduled deviation from preferred arrival time. The preference for scheduled delay is roughly proportional to the time shift and varies in the population, but is much more consistent within an individual. Another finding is that constraints at the destination mainly restrict late arrival, whereas constraints at the origin mainly restrict early departure.

  • 20.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Statliga pengar till infrastruktur slösas bort: Debattartikel2016In: Land, ISSN 0023-7531, no 23 februari 2016Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 21.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Telecommuting and work travel demand modelling in Sweden2003In: Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 22.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    The national value of time study 2007/08 (Vinnova/ Swedish Road Administration/Swedish Rail Administration2010Report (Other academic)
  • 23.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Travel time evaluation using camera data from Stockholm2010Report (Other academic)
  • 24.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Valuating perceived insecurity associated with use of and access to public transport2010In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2010, 2010Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study uses a stated choice experiment and drawings of four different type-environments to assess how various security-promoting factors in the built physical environment influence valuation of walking time when accessing public transport. Valuations that can be applied for evaluating policies to improve perceived security are obtained. Consistent results are achieved, indicating that the method is promising for incorporating aspects in the physical environment in the welfare analysis. The results indicate a systematic variation in value of walk time in different physical environments and it is more dependent of the physical environment for women than for men. This paper thereby contributes to the literature by showing that results by social sciences can be verified using methods and theories traditionally used in transport and welfare analysis and may therefore be incorporated in standard CBA. A contribution of this study is the insight that the perception of insecurity involved in accessing the public transport system is a welfare loss that can be quantified.

  • 25.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Valuing perceived insecurity associated with use of and access to public transport2012In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 22, 1-10 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study uses a stated choice experiment and drawings of four different type-environments to assess how various security-promoting factors in the built physical environment influence valuation of walking time when accessing public transport. Valuations that can be applied for evaluating policies to improve perceived security are obtained. Consistent results are achieved, indicating that the method is promising for incorporating aspects in the physical environment in the welfare analysis. The results indicate a systematic variation in value of walk time in different physical environments and it is more dependent of the physical environment for women than for men. This paper thereby contributes to the literature by showing that results by social sciences can be verified using methods and theories traditionally used in transport and welfare analysis and may therefore be incorporated in standard CBA. A contribution of this study is the insight that the perception of insecurity involved in accessing the public transport system is a welfare loss that can be quantified.

  • 26.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH.
    Properties of Internet and Telephone Data Collection Methods in a Stated Choice Value of Time Study Context2011In: Journal of Choice Modelling, ISSN 1755-5345, E-ISSN 1755-5345, Vol. 4, no 2Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyze Internet and telephone Stated Choice (SC) survey methods in the context of the Swedish value of time study 2008. In this study, extensive piloting and follow up surveys was undertaken to assure high quality data. We use these data and data from the main survey to analyse properties of the different data collection methods. One conclusion is that Internet gives less random error in the SC data. On the other hand, the response rate drops when Internet is the only response and recruiting mode. A mixed mode survey, where Internet is the primary method but where respondents are knowingly subject to a telephone follow up survey, is found to give substantially higher Internet response rates. If the telephone follow up does not include SC questions, the value of time result will still be biased. A large part of this bias seems to be explained by socio-economic data, such as income and age, which are cheaper to collect.

  • 27.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Brundell-Freij, Karin
    WSP Analysis & Strategy.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Not invented here: Transferability of congestion charges effects2014In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 36, 263-271 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to explore to what extent the effects of congestion charges rely on specific features of a city and its transport system. We use Stockholm, and its current congestion charging scheme, as a case study by making various modifications in the transport system influencing the availability and attractiveness of public transport, bypasses and bottleneck capacities. We use a transport model to forecast the effects of the Stockholm charges given each transport system modification. Our main conclusion is that although the social benefit of a given charging system is considerably and non-linearly dependent on initial congestion levels, traffic effects and adaptations costs are surprisingly stable across transport system modifications. Specifically, the level of public transport provision has only small effects on baseline congestion, and therefore on the total benefit of the charges. Contrary to expectation, the charges' effect on traffic volumes remains virtually unchanged regardless of the changes in public transport supply. All results are compared to and consistent with the one-market standard model. We interpret our results with respect to common arguments against the transferability of experiences from cities having introduced congestion charges.

  • 28.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Brundell-Freij, Karin
    WSP Analysis & Strategy.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    KTH.
    The Stockholm congestion charges – 4 years on: Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt2010In: Proceedings of the 2010 World Conference on Transport Research, 2010Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm in 2006, first as a trial followed by a referendum, then permanently from 2007. This paper discusses what conclusions can be drawn from the first four years of operation. We show that the traffic reduction caused by the charges’ has increased over time, once external factors are controlled for. Alternative-fuel vehicles are exempt from the charges, and this has substantially increased the sales of such vehicles. We discuss public and political acceptability, synthesizing recent research and Swedish experience, and conclude that objective and subjective effects as well as general environmental and political attitude played a role for the high levels of public support, while institutional reform and resolving power issues were necessary to gain political support. Finally, we briefly discuss implications for the transport planning process in general.

  • 29.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Brundell-Freij, Karin
    WSP Analysis & Strategy.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    KTH.
    The Stockholm congestion charges – 4 years on: Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt2010In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2010Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 30.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Cherchi, Elisabetta
    Technical University of Denmark.
    Bierlaire, Michel
    École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne.
    Between and within individual variation in values of time and mode choice: application to equity effects of congestion charge2012In: Proceedings of 1st European Symposium on Quantitative Methods in Transportation Systems, 2012Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 31.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Cherchi, Elisabetta
    Technical University of Denmark.
    Bierlaire, Michel
    École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne.
    Within-Individual Variation in Preferences Equity Effects of Congestion Charges2013In: Transportation Research Record, ISSN 0361-1981, E-ISSN 2169-4052, no 2382, 92-101 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this research was to explore how the values of travel time (VTT) and preferences for different modes vary within individuals compared with the variation between observed trips. With 6-week revealed preference panel data and stated preference data from a mode choice context, both collected in Switzerland, a revealed stated preference logit mode choice model was estimated. The model was applied to simulate how VTT and change in consumer surplus vary across trips within and between individuals over the 6 weeks in response to a hypothetical congestion-charging scheme. The variation in VTT arising from income differences was found to be substantially smaller than the variation in VTT between trips. Moreover, the variability in VTT averaged over all trips within each individual was considerably smaller than the variability in VTT for all observed trips. Therefore, the assumption that variation in VTT between observed trips reflects the variation in the average VTT between individuals, which is usually made in equity analyses, will over-state the between-individual variation. The results suggest that if intraindividual variation in preferences is not taken into account, the negative equity effects of congestion charges are likely to be overestimated.

  • 32.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Experiences from the Swedish Value of Time study2011In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2011Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 33.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Experiences from the Swedish Value of Time study2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 59, 144-158 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We provide a synthesis of results and insights from the Swedish Value of Time study, with focus on what is relevant for transport appraisal and understanding travel behavior. We summarize recent econometric advances, and show how these enable a better understanding and identification of the value of time distribution. The influence of the sign and size of changes is estimated and discussed, including the problems of loss aversion and the value of small time savings. Further, we show how the value of time depends on trip and traveler characteristics, discuss in what dimensions the value of time should be differentiated in appraisal, and provide recommended values for use in applied transport appraisal.

  • 34.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Hur mycket kan förbättringar för cyklister bidra till att minska vägträngseln och förbättra miljön? PM till TV42010Report (Other academic)
  • 35.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Kostnadseffektivitet i valet av infrastrukturinvesteringar2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Rapporten är upplagd på följande sätt. I kapitel 2 beskrivs vad som ingår i en samhällsekonomisk kalkyl och hur den tas fram. Kapitel 3 redovisar våra slutsatser om hur samhällsekonomiska kalkyler påverkar beslut om infrastrukturinvesteringar. I kapitel 4 diskuteras vanliga invändningar mot kalkyler, till exempel att inte alla effekter finns med eller att den är att resultatet påverkas starkt av antagande om förutsättningar, till exempel framtida bränslepriser etc. Kapitel 5 diskuterar mer utförligt vad det svaga sambandet mellan samhällsekonomisk effektivitet och beslut kan bero på, vilka problem det kan leda till och vad man skulle kunna göra åt det för att få en effektivare resursanvändning i transportsektorn.

  • 36.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    New Values of time and their application in appraisal2012In: Proceedings of the Transportation Research Board (TRB) 91st Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., USA: Transportation Research Board , 2012Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 37.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    New Values of time and their application in appraisal2011In: Proceedings of the 2011 Conference and the Summer School, 2011Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 38.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Nolltaxa är orealistiskt, oekonomiskt och orättvist: DN Debatt2015In: Dagens nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447, no 2015-05-20Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 39.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability2011In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 45, no 3, 171-184 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate how passengers on long-distance trains value unexpected delays relative to scheduled travel time and travel cost. For scheduled services with high reliability and long headways, the value of delays is most commonly assumed to be proportional to the average delay. By exploring how the valuation of train delays depends on delay risk and delay length, using three different stated choice data sets, we find that the "average delay" approach does not hold: the disutility increases slower than linearly in the delay risk. This means that using the average delay as a performance indicator, a guide for operations planning or for investment appraisal will underestimate the value of small risks of long delays relative to large risks for short delays. It also means that estimated valuations of "average delay" will depend on the delay risk level: valuations will be higher the lower the risk levels in the study are.

  • 40.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    The benefits of cycling: Viewing cyclists as travellers rather than non-motorists2012In: Cycling and sustainability / [ed] John Parkin, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2012, 247-268 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Purpose – This chapter provides a think piece on economic evaluation and policy for cycling. Bicycle investments are often motivated by a desire to improve health, the environment and congestion conditions. However, we argue that since the bicycle is a part of the transport system, it should be evaluated as such. Focusing on implications for cycling appraisal in general, we also discuss two conflicting trends in Stockholm: a sharp decrease in cycling in the outer areas, and a sharp increase in the inner parts.

    Methodology – We use (i) travel survey data to analyse the potential to reduce congestion through improvements for cyclists, (ii) travel survey data from 1986 to 1987 and 2004 and bicycle counts over 25 years and (iii) a value of time survey of Stockholm cyclists including questions of exercise habits.

    Findings – Additional benefits in appraisal from reduced car traffic and improved health seem to be small. Given bicyclists’ high values of time and low investment costs, bicycling investments are still likely to be socially beneficial. The conflicting bicycling trends can be explained by (i) increased road congestion and improved bicycle infrastructure, (ii) increased visibility of bicyclists generating a ‘positive spiral’, (iii) increased interest in physical fitness and changes in the relative prices of cars versus central residences turn cycling into a high-status mode and (iv) in peripheral areas, increasing distances and less dense land use patterns decrease cycling levels.

    Practical implications – The results underscore the need for dense, mixeduse spatial planning and ‘smart’ marketing using the effects of cyclist visibility to reinforce the ‘status’ of cycling.

  • 41.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    The value of time and external benefits in bicycle appraisal2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 4, 673-683 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We estimate the value of time savings, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost-benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists' value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle lanes. As to additional benefits of cycling improvements in the form of health and reduced car traffic, our results do not support the notion that these will be a significant part in a cost-benefit analysis. Bicyclists seem to take health largely into account when making their travel choices, implying that it would be double-counting to add total health benefits to the analysis once the consumer surplus has been correctly calculated. As to reductions in car traffic, our results indicate that the cross-elasticity between car and cycle is low, and hence benefits from traffic reductions will be small. However, the valuations of improved cycling speeds and comfort are so high that it seems likely that improvements for cyclists are cost-effective compared to many other types of investments, without having to invoke second-order, indirect effects. In other words, our results suggest that bicycle should be viewed as a competitive mode of travel and not primarily as a means to achieve improved health or reduced car traffic.

  • 42.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH,.
    The value of time and external benefits in bicycle cost-benefit analyses2010In: Proceedings of the 2010 World Conference on Transport Research, Lisbon, Portugal, 2010Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We estimate the value of time gains, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost-benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists’ value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle lanes. As to additional benefits of cycling improvements in the form of health and reduced car traffic, our results do not support the notion that these will be a significant part in a cost-benefit analysis, contrary to some earlier studies and beliefs. As to health effects, cyclists seem to take these largely into account when making their travel choices, so it would be double-counting to add total health benefits to the analysis once the consumer surplus has been correctly calculated. As to reductions in car traffic, our results indicate that the cross-elasticity between car and cycle is low, and hence benefits from traffic reductions will be small. However, the valuations of improved cycling speeds and comfort are so high that it seems likely that improvements for cyclists are cost-effective compared to many other types of investments, without having to invoke second-order, indirect effects. In other words, the bicycle is perfectly able to be viewed as a competitive mode of travel, rather than primarily a means to achieve improved health or reduced car traffic.

  • 43.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    The value of time and external benefits in bicycle cost-benefit analyses2010In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2010Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 44.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    The value of time of car drivers choosing route: evidence from the Stockholm congestion charging trial2008Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 45.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Transporter och samhällsekonomi (stängd 20110301).
    Train passengers' valuation of travel time unreliability2008Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    For scheduled services with relatively high reliability and long headways, most common approach is the “expected delay” approach, where passengers are assumed to value a possible delay proportional to its expected value. Common measures of travellers’ valuations are the “value of [expected] delay time”, or the “reliability multiplier”, i.e. the ratio of the value of delay time to the value of (scheduled) travel time.

    Using three different data sets, we investigate whether the expected delay approach holds empirically. In particular, we study how the valuation of apossible delay with probability p and length L depends on p and L.

    The main result is that this valuation is not proportional to the expected delay pL, but increases slower than linear in the delay probability. This is particularly pronounced for small risks.

    This means that estimated “values of delay time” will depend on the delay risk level p; “delay time values” will be higher the lower the risk level p is. One implication is that estimated values of delay times which does not take the non-linearity in delay risk into account will result in valuations that cannot be transferred between contexts with different delay risks. We also give a theoretical reason why this should be an expected phenomenon, as long asheadways are large.

    Regarding the dependence on delay length L, results are ambiguous: in one study, the valuation is linear in delay length L, whereas in another it increases slower than linearly.

  • 46.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    KTH.
    Brundell-Freij, Karin
    WSP Analysis and Strategy.
    The Stockholm congestion charges - 5 years on: Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt2012In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 20, no SI, 1-12 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm in 2006, first as a trial followed by a referendum, then permanently from 2007. This paper discusses what conclusions can be drawn from the first five years of operation, until mid-2011. We show that the traffic reduction caused by the charges has increased slightly over time, once external factors are controlled for. Alternative fuel vehicles were exempt from the charges through 2008, and we show that this substantially increased the sales of such vehicles. We discuss public and political acceptability, synthesising recent research and Swedish experience. We conclude that objective and subjective effects on the traffic system, as well as general environmental and political attitudes, formed the basis of the strong public support, while institutional reforms and resolution of power issues were necessary to gain political support. Finally, we briefly discuss implications for the transport planning process in general.

  • 47.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH.
    Valuations of travel time variability in scheduling versus mean-variance models2012In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 46, no 7, 855-873 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The standard method of estimating the value of travel time variability for use in policy appraisal is to estimate the parameters of a reduced-form utility function, where some measure of travel time variability (such as the standard deviation) is included. A problem with this approach is that the obtained valuation will in general depend on the standardized travel time distribution, and hence cannot be transferred from one context to another. A recently suggested remedy for this problem has been to estimate a scheduling model, which in theory is transferrable, and use the implied reduced-form to derive valuations for use in appraisal.

    In this paper we estimate both a scheduling model and the implied reduced-form model, using stated choice data. The valuation of travel time variability implied by the scheduling model turns out to be substantially smaller than what is obtained from a reduced-form model estimated on the same sample. The results suggest that the scheduling model does not capture all of the disutility arising from travel time variability. Hence, although it can be shown that scheduling and reduced-form models are theoretically equivalent, that hypothesized equivalence is not reflected in the empirical evidence. We speculate that the derivation of reduced-form models from an underlying scheduling model omits two essential features: first, the notion of an exogenously fixed "preferred arrival time" neglects the fact that most activities can be rescheduled given full information about the travel times in advance, and second, disutility may be derived from uncertainty as such, in the form of anxiety, decisions costs or costs for having contingency plans. We also report our estimates of the valuation of travel time variability for public transit trips, for use in applied appraisal.

  • 48.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    KTH.
    Wieweg, Lena
    ASEKs uppgifter och arbetsuppläggning2010Report (Other academic)
  • 49.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Isacsson, Gunnar
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Infrastrukturens påverkan på ekonomisk tillväxt2013Book (Other academic)
  • 50.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Johnsson Hamilton, Carl
    KTH.
    Why experience changes attitudes to congestion pricing: The case of Gothenburg2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 85, 1-16 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many cities have seen public support for congestion charges increase substantially after charges have been introduced. Several alternative explanations of this phenomenon have been suggested, but so far little evidence has been available to assess the relative importance of these explanations. We study attitudes to congestion pricing in Gothenburg before and after congestion charges were introduced in January 2013. Attitudes to the charges did indeed become more positive after the introduction, just as in previous cities. Using a two-wave postal survey, we separate contributions to the attitude change from a number of sources: benefits and costs being different than anticipated, use of hypothecated revenues, reframing processes, and changes in related attitudes such as attitudes to environment, equity, taxation and pricing measures in general. We conclude that the dominant reason for the attitude change is status quo bias, rather than any substantial changes in beliefs or related attitudes, although some of these factors also contribute. Contrary to a common belief, nothing of the attitude change is due to benefits being larger than anticipated.

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