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  • 1.
    Abate, Megersa
    et al.
    World Bank.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    de Jong, Gerard
    University of Leeds.
    Baak, Jaap
    dSignificance.
    A disaggregate stochastic freight transport model for Sweden2018In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, p. 1-26Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents estimation results for models of transport chain and shipment size choice, as well as an implementation of the estimated disaggregate models (for two commodity groups), in the context of the national freight transport model for Sweden. The new model is a disaggregate and stochastic (logit) model, whereas the existing Swedish national model is deterministic. One advantage of the new approach is that it bases the underlying behavior of shippers on a stronger empirical foundation (that is micro-data from the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey, CFS). Another advantage is that it overcomes a well-known disadvantage of deterministic models that lead to implausibly large responses to changes in scenario or policy variables. Although estimation and implementation of aggregate stochastic models were done before, in the context of a national freight transport forecasting model, we think this is the first implementation of disaggregate freight transport chain and shipment size models estimated on choice data for individual shipments, certainly in Europe. We carried out a number of model runs with both versions of the implemented model to compare elasticities and found that transport cost and time elasticities for tonne-km are smaller (in absolute values) in the disaggregate stochastic model than in their deterministic counterparts.

  • 2.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Inter-temporal variation in the travel time and travel cost parameters of transport models2014In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, Vol. 41, no 2, p. 377-396Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The parameters for travel time and travel cost are central in travel demand forecasting models. Since valuation of infrastructure investments requires prediction of travel demand for future evaluation years, inter-temporal variation of the travel time and travel cost parameters is a key issue in forecasting. Using two identical stated choice experiments conducted among Swedish drivers with an interval of 13 years, 1994 and 2007, this paper estimates the inter-temporal variation in travel time and cost parameters (under the assumption that the variance of the error components of the indirect utility function is equal across the two datasets). It is found that the travel time parameter has remained constant over time but that the travel cost parameter has declined in real terms. The trend decline in the cost parameter can be entirely explained by higher average income level in the 2007 sample compared to the 1994 sample. The results support the recommendation to keep the travel time parameter constant over time in forecast models, but to deflate the travel cost parameter with the forecasted income increase among travellers and the relevant income elasticity of the cost parameter. Evidence from this study further suggests that the inter-temporal and the cross-sectional income elasticities of the cost parameter are equal. The average elasticity is found to be -0.8 to -0.9 in the present sample of drivers, and the elasticity is found to increase with the real income level, both in the cross-section and over time.

  • 3.
    de Jong, Gerard
    et al.
    University of Leeds.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Tavasszy, Lori
    Delft University of Technology.
    Ben-Akiva, Moshe
    MIT.
    Recent developments in national and international freight transport models within Europe2013In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, Vol. 40, no 2, p. 347-371Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The past decade has seen many new freight transport models for use in transport planning by public authorities. Some of these models have developed new concepts, such as logistics modules, inclusion of transshipments, storage and sourcing and the determination of shipment size.

    This paper provides a review of the European literature on freight transport models that operate at the national or international level and have been developed since 2004. The introduction of elements of logistics thinking is identified as a common theme in recently developed models, and further worked out. Furthermore, ideas on what might be the next key developments in freight transport modelling are presented.

  • 4.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics. Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Engelson, Leonid
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Estimating preferred departure times of road users in a large urban network2016In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, p. 1-21Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to reliably predict and assess effects of congestion charges and other congestion mitigating measures, a transportation model including dynamic assignment and departure time choice is important.

    This paper presents a transport model that incorporates departure time choice for analysis of road users’ temporal adjustments and uses a mesoscopic traffic simulation model to capture the dynamic nature of congestion.Departure time choice modelling relies heavily on car users’ preferred times of travel and without knowledge of these no meaningful conclusions can be drawn from application of the model.

    This paper shows how preferred times of travel can be consistently derived from field observations and conditional probabilities of departure times using a reverse engineering approach. It is also shown how aggregation of origin–destination pairs with similar preferred departure time profiles can solve the problem of negative solutions resulting from the reverse engineering equation. The method is shown to work well for large-scale applications and results are given for the network of Stockholm.

  • 5.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    et al.
    KTH.
    Liu, Chengxi
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    The changes of activity-travel participation across gender, life-cycle, and generations in Sweden over 30 years2018In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, p. 1-26Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study utilised the Swedish national travel survey covering a period of over 30 years. We investigated the long-term trends in activity-travel patterns of individuals in different life-cycle stages and generations using cohort analysis and a path model. The main findings are summarised as follows. The women, including mothers, in younger generations have become more active in out-of-home non-work activities and their trip chaining has become more complex, compared to their male counterparts. While men are still driving more than women, the gap is decreasing in the younger generations. The gender difference among teenagers in terms of out-of-home time use diminishes in younger generations. Teenagers of younger generations spend more of their leisure time inside their homes, possibly due to the rise of online activities and gaming and more time-consuming school trips, the latter attributed to changes in school choice policy. Older adults travel more, possibly due to better paratransit transport service, supported by better health services.

  • 6.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Algers, Staffan
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Willingness to accept commuting time within the household: stated preference evidence2014In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, Vol. 43, no 2, p. 219-241Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, stated preference data is used to derive estimated values of commuting time (VOCT). Both spouses in two-earner households are individually making trade-offs between commuting time and wage; both with regard to their own commuting time and wage only, as well as when both their own commuting time and wage and their spouse’s commuting time and wage are simultaneously changed. Thus, we are able to compare how male spouses and female spouses value each other’s commuting time.

    When only ones own commuting time and wage are attributes, the empirical results show that the estimated VOCT is plausible with a tendency towards high values compared to other studies, and that VOCT does not differ significantly between men and women. When decisions affecting commuting time and wage of both spouses are analyzed, both spouses value the commuting time of the wife highest. Further analysis show that this result is driven by households where the man has the highest income. If VOCT were to be gender specific in policy implications, the value might be higher for women than for men in two-earner households.

  • 7.
    West, Jens
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. KTH.
    The Gothenburg congestion charges: cost–benefit analysis and distribution effects2018In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, p. 1-30Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper performs an ex-post cost–benefit and distribution analysis of the Gothenburg congestion charges introduced in 2013, based on observed effects and an ex-post evaluated transport model. Although Gothenburg is a small city with congestion limited to the highway junctions, the congestion charge scheme is socially beneficial, generating a net surplus of €20 million per year. From a financial perspective, the investment cost was repaid in slightly more than a year and, from a social surplus perspective, is repaid in < 4 years. Still, the sums that are redistributed in Gothenburg are substantially larger than the net benefit. In the distribution analysis we develop an alternative welfare rule, where the utility is translated to money by dividing the utility by the average marginal utility of money, thereby avoiding putting a higher weight on high-income people. The alternative welfare rule shows larger re-distribution effects, because paying charges is more painful for low-income classes due to the higher marginal utility of money. Low-income citizens pay a larger share of their income because all income classes are highly car dependent in Gothenburg and workers in the highest income class have considerably higher access to company cars for private trips. No correlation was found between voting pattern and gains, losses or net gain.

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