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  • 1.
    Abate, Megersa
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Economic effects of air transport market liberalization in Africa2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, p. 326-337Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the aviation industry is increasingly becoming important for Africa's economic development and integration, the ability of airlines to access foreign markets remains hindered by restrictive regulatory policies. Attempts have been made to fully liberalize the intra-African air transport market. Except for general assertions about the merits/demerits of liberalization, our empirical understanding of the welfare effects of such polices in Africa remains rudimentary. This study empirically measures the economic effects of air transport liberalization, mainly on two supply side variables: fare and service quality, measured as departure frequency. The empirical models evaluate how air fares and departure frequency respond to measures of openness in air services agreements, while controlling for other determinants. The results show up to 40% increase in departure frequency in routes that experienced some type of liberalization compared to those governed by restrictive bilateral air service agreements. Furthermore, there is a relatively larger increase in departure frequency in routes which experienced partial liberalization compared to fully liberalized ones. This can be explained by the diminishing marginal effect of progressive liberalization on departure frequency. While the effect of liberalization is substantial in improving service quality, there is no evidence of its fare reducing effect.

  • 2.
    Abate, Megersa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    De Jong, Gerard
    University of Leeds.
    The optimal shipment size and truck size choice: The allocation of trucks across hauls2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 59, p. 262-277Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There has been a growing interest in understanding how firms allocate their trucks across hauls, and how this allocation changes under various economic environments. This study investigates how variations in route/haul, carrier and vehicle characteristics affect the optimal vehicle size choice and the associated choice of shipment size. We show that the two choices are derived from the same optimization problem. There can be a continuum of shipment sizes, but decision-makers in freight transport have to choose from a limited number of vehicle alternatives. Therefore, we use a discrete-continuous econometric model where shipment size is modeled as a continuous variable, and vehicle size/type choice as a discrete variable. The results indicate that when faced with higher demand, and during longer trips firms are more likely to use heavier vehicles and ship in larger quantities which suggest that firms are realizing economies of scale and economies of distance. The study also discusses the effect of vehicle operating cost on the vehicle selection process and its policy implications.

  • 3.
    Abenoza, Roberto F.
    et al.
    KTH.
    Liu, Chengxi
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    Cats, Oded
    KTH.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH.
    What is the role of weather, built-environment and accessibility geographical characteristics in influencing travelers’ experience?2019In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 122, p. 34-50Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We examine the effect of weather, accessibility and built-environment characteristics on overall travel experience as well as the experience with the latest trips. These are factors that are often disregarded in the travel satisfaction literature even though they are believed to largely influence the first mile of the door-to-door trip. This study fills a research gap in investigating all these factors by using, amongst other, a relatively large travel satisfaction survey from years 2009 to 2015 and by focusing on urban and peri-urban geographical contexts, the city and county of Stockholm (Sweden), respectively. The ordered logit model results show that county dwellers living close to a metro station and in well linked-to-all areas report higher overall travel satisfaction evaluations. In addition, precipitation and ground covered with snow have a negative influence on travel satisfaction. Our findings indicate that built-environment characteristics exert a rather weak influence on the travel experience, especially in the peri-urban context. However, some aspects such as living in areas with medium densities, low income and with high safety perceptions around public transport stations are associated with higher satisfaction levels. In turn, areas with single land uses are found to have lower travel satisfactions. These results are important for public transport planners and designers in devising measures to prevent and mitigate the negative outcome of some weather conditions and to conceive better designed transit oriented developments.

  • 4.
    Andersson, Mats
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
    Marginal railway track renewal costs: A survival data approach2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 87, p. 68-77Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, renewal costs for railway tracks are investigated using survival analysis. The purpose is to derive the effect from increased traffic volumes on rail renewal cycle lengths and to calculate associated marginal costs. A flow sample of censored data containing almost 1300 observations on the Swedish main railway network is used. We specify Weibull regression models, and estimate deterioration elasticities for total tonnage as well as for passenger and freight tonnages separately. Marginal costs are calculated as a change in present values of renewal costs from premature renewal following increased traffic volumes. The marginal cost for total tonnage is estimated to approximately SEK 0.002 per gross ton kilometre.

  • 5.
    Antonson, Hans
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Public participation and written submissions: A transport infrastructure planning case study2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, p. 59-66Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Written submissions or comments as a response on an EIS (Environmental Impact Statement) rank as one of the most common forms of public participation. Within public participation research there appears to be an international dearth of knowledge concerning such written submissions. The possible impact of such responses on an EIS is - with few exceptions - seldom put in focus. The aim in the present brief communication is to study one aspect of public participation within transport infrastructure planning, namely the role of written submissions sent to the applicant by individuals, Non-governmental organisations, companies and authorities. By comparing 34 written submissions with road planning documents (including EIS) the impact of the public views has been analysed in a south Swedish case study. At a time when the new Environmental Code only had been in force for less than one year, it does not appear as if the Road Administration's regional office accepted most of the written submissions just to show that the new regulation concerning participation had a direct impact on the planning. Sweden's long tradition of public access to official documents may explain why written submissions as one aspect of public participation worked well in the E18 highway planning process, because civil servants have long been taught to promptly furnish information and guidance, as well as to giving advice and other assistance to individuals in matters concerning an authority's activity. This study shows, then, that - if properly managed by the developer's street-level staff - the use of written submissions may improve the EIS from a stakeholder perspective and also make the stakeholders feel they are being taken seriously.

  • 6.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. Örebro Universitet.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, p. 195-205Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty.

    Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Provided that decisions are based on CBA outcomes, reducing uncertainty is still worthwhile, however, because of the huge sums at stake. Even moderate reductions of uncertainties about unit values, investment costs, future demand and project effects may increase the realized benefits infrastructure investment plans by tens or hundreds of million euros. We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

  • 7.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Explaining “peak car” with economic variables2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 2016, no 88, p. 236-250Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many western countries have seen a plateau and subsequent decrease of car travel during the 21st century. What has generated particular interest and debate is the statement that the development cannot be explained by changes in traditional explanatory factors such as GDP and fuel prices. Instead, it has been argued, the observed trends are indications of substantial changes in lifestyles, preferences and attitudes to car travel; what we are experiencing is not just a temporary plateau, but a true “peak car”. However, this study shows that the traditional variables GDP and fuel price are in fact sufficient to explain the observed trends in car traffic in all the countries included in our study: the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and (to a large extent) Australia and Germany. We argue that the importance of the fuel price increases in the early 2000s has been underappreciated in the studies that shaped the later debate. Results also indicate that GDP elasticities tend to decrease with rising GDP, and that fuel price elasticities tend to increase at high price levels and during periods of rapid price increases.

  • 8.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Estimating policy values for in-vehicle comfort and crowding reduction in local public transport2017In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 106, p. 453-472Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study estimates policy values for comfort, defined as getting a seat, and crowding reduction on board local public transport in Sweden. We use stated-preference (SP) data and present crowding as a mode-neutral crowding level among the standing travelers depicted in images presented to the respondents. We analyze whether there are differences in the willingness to pay (WTP) for comfort and crowding reduction among the three largest urban areas in Sweden. In general, we find no significantly different preferences for sitting and crowding reduction among the three urban areas. Still, the point estimates differ in some cases, indicating that there may be differences across the three urban areas, but the estimates have large confidence intervals that overlap each other. Also, these differences are likely to have resulted from mode-share differences and not from differences in preferences across the urban areas. Some significant differences are found among the modes, for example, a higher disutility of standing on a bus versus on a tram. These mode-specific estimates can be used as policy values for a given tram line or metro line. Nevertheless, we also pooled the data suggesting average WTP estimates for sitting and crowding reductions that can be used for national cost–benefit analysis policy in all large urban areas in Sweden where crowding on local public transport occurs. Importantly, analysis of heterogeneity and SP-design differences shows that the results are in line with empirical knowledge of the value of travel time savings.

  • 9.
    Broman, Emanuel
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköpings Universitet.
    Welfare effects of open access competition on railway markets2019In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 129, p. 72-91Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In recent years, several countries have deregulated passenger railway markets to allow open access. The aim is for competition to lower fares and increase quality of service, thereby increasing demand, economic efficiency and overall social welfare. We use a stylised simulation model to study how open access competition affects fares, demand, supply, consumer surplus and operator profits compared to a profit maximising monopoly and to a welfare maximising benchmark situation. We conclude that aggregate social welfare increases substantially when going from profit maximising monopoly to duopoly competition, as consumers make large gains while operators’ profits fall. It matters how the infrastructure manager sets the timetable based on operators’ capacity requests: the infrastructure manager should strive to increase competition by mixing competing operators’ departures as much as possible. According to simulations, there generally exists a stable competitive Nash equilibrium with two or more profitable operators. Although operators are identical in the model setup, the Nash equilibrium outcome is asymmetric: one operator has more departures and higher average fares than the other does. If operators are allowed to cooperate, however, for example by trading or selling departure slots, the equilibrium situation tends to revert to monopoly. The regulatory framework must therefore prevent collusion and facilitate market entry. Even the potential for competitive entry tends to increase social welfare, as the monopolist has incentives to increase supply as an entry deterrence strategy.

  • 10.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, Trafik och logistik.
    Forecasting demand for high speed rail2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, p. 81-92Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit-based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing the literature on travel time elasticities for long distance rail travel and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish long distance model, Sampers, and its forecast demand for a proposed new HSR, using aggregate data revealing how the air-rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The Sampers long distance model is also compared to a newly developed model applying Box-Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long distance travel, long distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Sampers model is indeed able to predict the demand for HSR reasonably well. The new non-linear model has even better model fit and also slightly higher elasticities.

  • 11.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Experiences from the Swedish Value of Time study2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 59, p. 144-158Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We provide a synthesis of results and insights from the Swedish Value of Time study, with focus on what is relevant for transport appraisal and understanding travel behavior. We summarize recent econometric advances, and show how these enable a better understanding and identification of the value of time distribution. The influence of the sign and size of changes is estimated and discussed, including the problems of loss aversion and the value of small time savings. Further, we show how the value of time depends on trip and traveler characteristics, discuss in what dimensions the value of time should be differentiated in appraisal, and provide recommended values for use in applied transport appraisal.

  • 12.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability2011In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 45, no 3, p. 171-184Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate how passengers on long-distance trains value unexpected delays relative to scheduled travel time and travel cost. For scheduled services with high reliability and long headways, the value of delays is most commonly assumed to be proportional to the average delay. By exploring how the valuation of train delays depends on delay risk and delay length, using three different stated choice data sets, we find that the "average delay" approach does not hold: the disutility increases slower than linearly in the delay risk. This means that using the average delay as a performance indicator, a guide for operations planning or for investment appraisal will underestimate the value of small risks of long delays relative to large risks for short delays. It also means that estimated valuations of "average delay" will depend on the delay risk level: valuations will be higher the lower the risk levels in the study are.

  • 13.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    The value of time and external benefits in bicycle appraisal2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 4, p. 673-683Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We estimate the value of time savings, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost-benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists' value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle lanes. As to additional benefits of cycling improvements in the form of health and reduced car traffic, our results do not support the notion that these will be a significant part in a cost-benefit analysis. Bicyclists seem to take health largely into account when making their travel choices, implying that it would be double-counting to add total health benefits to the analysis once the consumer surplus has been correctly calculated. As to reductions in car traffic, our results indicate that the cross-elasticity between car and cycle is low, and hence benefits from traffic reductions will be small. However, the valuations of improved cycling speeds and comfort are so high that it seems likely that improvements for cyclists are cost-effective compared to many other types of investments, without having to invoke second-order, indirect effects. In other words, our results suggest that bicycle should be viewed as a competitive mode of travel and not primarily as a means to achieve improved health or reduced car traffic.

  • 14.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Johnsson Hamilton, Carl
    KTH.
    Why experience changes attitudes to congestion pricing: The case of Gothenburg2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 85, p. 1-16Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many cities have seen public support for congestion charges increase substantially after charges have been introduced. Several alternative explanations of this phenomenon have been suggested, but so far little evidence has been available to assess the relative importance of these explanations. We study attitudes to congestion pricing in Gothenburg before and after congestion charges were introduced in January 2013. Attitudes to the charges did indeed become more positive after the introduction, just as in previous cities. Using a two-wave postal survey, we separate contributions to the attitude change from a number of sources: benefits and costs being different than anticipated, use of hypothecated revenues, reframing processes, and changes in related attitudes such as attitudes to environment, equity, taxation and pricing measures in general. We conclude that the dominant reason for the attitude change is status quo bias, rather than any substantial changes in beliefs or related attitudes, although some of these factors also contribute. Contrary to a common belief, nothing of the attitude change is due to benefits being larger than anticipated.

  • 15.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH.
    Catching the tail: Empirical identification of the distribution of the value of travel time2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 2, p. 378-391Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent methodological advances in discrete choice analysis in combination with certain stated choice experiments have allowed researchers to check empirically the identification of the distribution of latent variables such as the value of travel time (VTT). Lack of identification is likely to be common and the consequences are severe. E.g., the Danish value of time study found the 15% right tail of the VTT distribution to be unidentified, making it impossible to estimate the mean VTT without resorting to strong assumptions with equally strong impact on the resulting estimate. This paper analyses data generated from a similar choice experiment undertaken in Sweden during 2007–2008 in which the range of trade-off values between time and money was significantly increased relative to the Danish experiment. The results show that this change allowed empirical identification of effectively the entire VTT distribution. In addition to informing the design of future choice experiments, the results are also of interest as a validity test of the stated choice methodology. Failure in identifying the right tail of the VTT would have made it difficult to maintain that respondents’ behaviour is consistent with utility maximisation in the sense intended by the experimenter.

  • 16.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH.
    On the income elasticity of the value of travel time2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 2, p. 368-377Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel time savings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional income elasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based on two identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13. year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticity of the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, the income elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time. 

  • 17.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. KTH .
    Fung, Chau Man
    Katholieke Univ Leuven, Leuven, Belgium..
    Proost, Stef
    Katholieke Univ Leuven, Leuven, Belgium..
    Yan, Zifei
    KTH.
    Do buses hinder cyclists or is it the other way around?: Optimal bus fares, bus stops and cycling tolls2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 111, p. 326-346Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper optimises the number of bus stops, and prices for car, bus and cycling in the busiest inner city corridor in Stockholm. We adopt the representative consumer approach and calibrate the current equilibrium using the quasi-linear utility function. We find that the number of bus stops is already close to optimal. Welfare would increase if the peak frequency was increased, if the bus fares were lowered and differentiated between long trips and short trips and, and that the toll for longer car trips was increased. The optimal toll for cyclists, and the welfare benefit from it, is small and does not compensate the transaction costs. The distributional effects of bus fare changes and higher car tolls are small because on one hand, high income groups place more value on travel time gains, but on the other hand, low income groups travel less frequently by car. Surprisingly, we find that in the welfare optimum, the bus service only requires a small subsidy due to congestion in the bus lane, crowding in the buses, and extra boarding and alighting time per passenger. The Mohring effect is limited because the demand, and thereby the baseline frequency, is already high.

  • 18.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Hamilton, Carl J.
    KTH.
    Näsman, Per
    KTH.
    Papaix, Claire
    French Institute of Science and Technology for Transport, Development and Networks (IFSTTAR).
    Factors driving public support for road congestion reduction policies: Congestion charging, free public transport and more roads in Stockholm, Helsinki and Lyon2015In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 78, p. 452-462Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Based on an across-the-board survey conducted among residents of Stockholm, Helsinki and Lyon, we explore the opinions on three policy measures to combat road congestion: congestion charging, free public transport and building more roads. The support for the two latter policies is substantially higher than the support for congestion charging, which is only supported by a majority in Stockholm. Self-interest is important for the formation of the opinion to all three policies. However, fundamental values and general political views, indicated by four attitudinal factors, are even more important in forming opinions towards the three transport policies. Of all attitudinal factors, the one indicating environmental concern most influences the support for all policies. Equity concerns, however, increase the support for free public transport and opposition to taxation increases the support for building more roads. Our results further suggest that the opinions towards free public transport and building more roads can be mapped along the left right political axis, where Environment and Equity are to the left and Pricing and Taxation are to the right. However, the opinion towards congestion charging cuts right through the political spectrum. The impact of the fundamental values and self-interest variables are similar for Stockholm and Helsinki, indicating that even if experience increases the overall support for charging, it does not change the relative strength of different political arguments to any major extent.

  • 19.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Jonsson, R. Daniel
    KTH.
    Lundberg, Mattias
    KTH.
    An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, p. 135-148Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper performs an ex-post cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the Metro system in Stockholm built in the 1950s. We find that the Metro was socially beneficial and that the largest benefit of the Metro is its capacity, making it possible for many people to travel to and from the city center. We also assess the significance of the wider economic impacts due to labor market distortions and the land-use effects in the case of the Stockholm Metro. The wider economic impacts increase the consumer surplus with 48%, and the yearly income in the county with 1.5%. A land-use model is used to simulate how the land-use has been influenced by the Metro over the years 1956-2006. This simulation indicates that the historical centralized planning of housing along transit corridors has developed the region into a more dispersed region than if the market forces had ruled. The simulation also suggests that the land-use impact from the investment itself is small, but that the land-use impact from the planning accompanying the decision to build the Metro has been substantial.

  • 20.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    Sweco.
    The Gothenburg congestion charge: Effects, design and politics2015In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 75, p. 134-146Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper summarizes the traffic effects of the Gothenburg congestion charges introduced in 2013. The system is similar to the system introduced in Stockholm in 2006; both are designed as time-of-day dependent cordon pricing systems. We find that many effects and adaptation strategies are similar to those found in Stockholm, indicating a high transferability between smaller and larger cities with substantial differences in public transport use. However, there are also important differences regarding some of the effects, the accuracy of the model forecasts and public support arising from different topologies, public transport use, congestion levels and main objectives communicated to the public. Finally, the Gothenburg case suggests that whether congestion charges are introduced or not depends on the support among the political parties, and that this is determined primarily by the prevailing institutional setting and power over revenues, and to a lower extent by the public support, and benefits from congestion reduction.

  • 21.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. KTH.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.
    The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 107, p. 35-51Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Time-of-day dependent cordon-based congestion charging systems were introduced in Stockholm in 2006, and in Gothenburg in 2013. The Stockholm system was significantly extended in 2016, and the peak charge has been increased in the two cities. This paper analyses the effects of the first decade with the Swedish congestion charges, specifically effects of the system updates, and draws policy lessons for the years to come. Should we introduce congestion charges in more cities? Should we extend the systems that we have? We synthesize previous research findings and focus on the long-term effects that have varied over time including the recent years: the price elasticities on the traffic volume across the cordon, the revenue and system operating cost, the public and political support, and consequences for the transport planning process. We also explore the effects on peak and off-peak, and different types of traffic (trucks, company cars and private passenger cars), because of access to novel data that make this analysis possible. We find that the price elasticities have increased over time in Stockholm, but decreased in Gothenburg. We find that the public support increased in the two cities after their introduction until the systems were revised; since then, the public support has declined in both cities. We find that the price elasticity was substantially lower when the charging levels were increased, and when the Stockholm system was extended, than when the charges were first introduced, a likely reason being that the most price-sensitive traffic was already priced off-the road at the introduction.

  • 22.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    van Amelsfort, Dirk
    WSP Analysis & Strategy.
    Brundell-Freij, Karin
    WSP Analysis & Strategy.
    Engelson, Leonid
    KTH.
    Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts2013In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 52, p. 34-46Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper compares forecast effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. The most important concerns during the design of the congestion charging scheme were the traffic reduction in bottlenecks, the increase in public transport ridership, the decrease of vehicle kilometres in the city centre, and potential traffic effects on circumferential roads. Comparisons of forecasts and actual outcomes show that the transport model predicted all of these factors well enough to allow planners to draw correct conclusions regarding the design and preparations for the scheme. The one major shortcoming was that the static assignment network model was unable to predict the substantial reductions of queuing times. We conclude that the transport model worked well enough to be useful as decision support, performing considerably better than unaided "experts' judgments", but that results must be interpreted taking the model's limitations into account. The positive experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges hence seem to be transferable to other cities in the sense that if a charging system is forecast to have beneficial effects on congestion, then this is most likely true.

  • 23.
    Grahn-Voorneveld, Sofia
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Sharing costs in Swedish road ownership associations2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 4, p. 645-651Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Usually transport systems, and roads in particular, are viewed as public goods. However, this is not always the case. In Sweden a large part of the road system is privately owned. Most of these privately owned roads are rural roads used by farmers and summer cottage owners, or used for forest transport. These roads are mainly provided by ownership associations. An important difference between public roads and these privately owned roads is that all investments- and maintenance decisions are made by the users themselves, who also have to pay the costs, whereas the usual case is that the owners/providers of a road-system are different agents than the users. Here the question is not how to charge the roads but how to split the costs of the roads among the users in an efficient and "fair" way. The motivation of this paper is the practical problem of how such an ownership association can divide the costs for the road network among the members in an efficient and "fair" way. The problem is treated from a game theoretical point of view, making use of the Shapley value. This means that the problem is associated with a game - a mathematical representation of the conflict situation. The Shapley value is a very important solution concept for cooperative games, like the game in this case. For games corresponding to this specific type of problems, it is shown that the Shapley value has excellent properties, such as beeing an element of the core, and beeing very easy to compute

  • 24.
    Grahn-Voorneveld, Sofia
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    The effects of  decentralized capacity decisions for congested self-financed roads2013In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 56, p. 49-60Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies the differences between centralized and decentralized decisions for capacity and road user charges on a congested self-financed road with local, national and international traffic. Road user charges are allowed only to cover the costs for providing the road with a specific capacity, and to cover external costs caused by traffic.

    The road is either provided by the nation, or else this responsibility is decentralized to the community.The results of this paper show that it can matter significantly on what level such a decision is made. A decentralized decision leads to a total wellfare loss, and there is both a national and international interest for not decentralizing such decisions

  • 25.
    Hansson, Lars
    et al.
    Lund University.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Stockholm University.
    A new Swedish Railroad Policy: Separation of Infrastructure and Traffic Production1991In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 25, no 4, p. 153-159Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 1988 the Swedish nationalized railway company was separated into two separate entities, the Swedish State Railways in charge of running rail transport and the National Rail Administration, responsible for investment in and maintenance of rail infrastructure. This paper describes institutional aspects of this new railway policy. It also specifies methodological and practical problems in the computation of social marginal costs for using rail as well as road infrastructure. It is furthermore made likely that present fuel charges on road vehicles, but not the new rail use charges, are insufficient to cover costs for infrastructure use.

  • 26.
    Hedegaard Sørensen, Claus
    et al.
    DTU - Technical University of Denmark.
    Isaksson, Karolina
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Macmillen, James
    University of Oxford.
    Åkerman, Jonas
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Kressler, Florian
    AustriaTech.
    Strategies to manage barriers in policy formation and implementation of road pricing packages2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 60, p. 40-52Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the transport policy domain, as in other highly-contested spheres of public policy, it is commonplace for certain policy measures to emerge as promising only to then remain unimplemented. Road pricing is one example of a theoretically well-developed transport policy measure that has proven notoriously difficult to decide and implement. There are however lessons to learn from practice on how to manage barriers to policy formation and implementation also within this field. Drawing on the congestion charging schemes implemented in London in 2003 and Stockholm in 2006, and the Swiss Heavy Vehicle Fee scheme implemented in 2001, this paper identifies a selection of strategies which appear to have supported the policymakers' capacity to implement effective road pricing schemes. Together, these three examples offer a sound empirical basis from which to infer a set of strategies for the formulation and implementation of politically-contentious road pricing packages-addressing issues of measure combination, flexibility, legitimacy, communication, timing and organisational dynamics. While acknowledging the primacy of broader external and contextual issues, the conclusion is that taking inspiration from the strategies identified in this paper may increase the likelihood of successful policy package processes.

  • 27.
    Hirschhorn, Fabio
    et al.
    Delft University of Technology.
    Paulsson, Alexander
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Hedegaard Sørensen, Claus
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Veeneman, Wijnand
    Delft University of Technology.
    Public transport regimes and mobility as a service: Governance approaches in Amsterdam, Birmingham, and Helsinki2019In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 130, p. 178-191Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines governance responses to Mobility as a Service (MaaS). The analysis focuses on the interactions between public transport systems and MaaS developments in Amsterdam, Birmingham, and Helsinki. Case comparison is informed by the multilevel perspective on socio-technical transitions and literature on meta-governance of networks. Drawing on these frameworks and empirical findings, the paper identifies six governance approaches to MaaS across cases: analyser, architect, convener, experimenter, lawmaker, and provider. These basic models encompass strategies ranging from hands-on strong intervention to information collection efforts. Consistent with the transitions literature, these six approaches indicate that public transport regimes seek to control the apparent disruptive potential of MaaS by incrementally absorbing innovations; to this end, regime actors adopt governance responses that tend to reproduce existing institutionalised ways of doing and prevailing logics. Furthermore, the six approaches reveal intense interaction between regime and niche, suggesting that a niche-regime space might have emerged in the cases; actors travel and operate across niche, regime, and niche-regimes, mainly driven by concerns with market share and revenue streams in the mobility system.

  • 28.
    Hrelja, Robert
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Integrating transport and land-use planning?: How steering cultures in local authorities affect implementation of integrated public transport and land-use planning2015In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 74, p. 1-13Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous research has shown integrated planning to be important for achieving aims concerning more environmentally friendly transport operations, but less good at explaining prerequisites of implementation. This paper analyses how management and working practises in local authorities, here understood as steering cultures, affect implementation of integrated land-use and public transport planning approaches. The analysis builds on case studies of planning in two Swedish municipalities. These have developed two antithetical steering cultures, namely one that can be described as deliberative and one that can be described as sectorised. The paper describes the advantages and disadvantages of these steering cultures. The findings show the deliberative model to facilitate integration through advanced mechanisms of consensus and co-ordination between policy-makers and officials. The sectorised model has no such mechanisms, but this need not result in poor prospects of integrated planning. It is important for integrated planning approaches, whatever the steering culture, to be in line with the institutionalised norms and objectives by which planning practices are governed. Integration therefore needs a normative component, so as to ensure implementation. The important normative component in this context can be construed as discourses and rationales concerning transport and the urban development of which public transport forms part.

  • 29.
    Hrelja, Robert
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Isaksson, Karolina
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Richardson, Tim
    Aalborg University, Department of Development and Planning.
    Choosing conflict on the road to sustainable mobility: A risky strategy for breaking path dependency in urban policy making2013In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 49, p. 195-205Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous studies have identified implementation problems connected to sustainable mobility. These difficulties raise the question of which strategies can be successfully pursued to break path dependencies in urban policy making. This article is focused on corporate mobility management as one specific example of sustainable mobility initiatives, and analyses the formation and implementation of a travel policy for employees at the city administration of Örebro, Sweden. The analysis reveals how controversies can evolve into major implementation barriers for sustainable mobility initiatives. The analysis centres on the playing out of power relations between politicians and groups of officers in the development of interventions to break path dependencies. The strategy pursued in Örebro turned out to be very challenging within the municipality, since it required significant transformation of the officials’ personal travel behaviour, and so led to open conflicts within the city administration. The case demonstrates that radical and confrontational attempts to break path dependencies may result in the same watering down as less controversial, more consensual strategies. When handling controversial sustainable mobility measures there may be more benefit in deliberative strategies of raising awareness, creating new consciousness or institutionalising desired discursive shifts.

  • 30.
    Hrelja, Robert
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Mobility, actors and planning processes.
    Rye, Tom
    Edinburgh Napier University .
    Partnerships between operators and public transport authorities.: Working practices in relational contracting and collaborative partnerships2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 116, p. 327-338Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent research on public transport has seen increasing focus on issues like coordination, collaboration and steering in complex governance settings. One of the themes in this field of research is related to partnership approaches, as one way of stimulating functioning collaboration between formally independent private and public organisations. The aim of this paper is to explore the role and function of partnerships as a way of supporting well-functioning public transport networks and services in fragmented institutional settings. The empirical focus is on partnerships between operators and public (transport) authorities in two different legal settings: England and Sweden. The analysis is based on interviews with operators and public transport authorities in two metropolitan regions in each country where innovative partnership working has been developed to deal with various types of barriers to delivering better public transport. The results show the key qualities of these partnerships that are required for them to function. Although the regulatory contexts are very different, the partnership qualities are very similar in both cases.

  • 31.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Estimating Traffic Demand Risk: A Multiscale Analysis2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 10, p. 1741-1751Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the timescale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950-2005. In general, rail transport shows a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transport. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice between public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.

  • 32.
    Krüger, Niclas A
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    To Kill a Real Option: Incomplete contracts, real options and PPP2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 8, p. 1359-1371Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper is concerned with the implications of public-private partnership agreements for the execution of expansion options in road infrastructure. More specifically, it analyzes the expansion of an existing two-lane road in Sweden, and examines the real options created by an intermediate type of road with three lanes. Interpreting the results from real option analysis in the light of incomplete contract theory, this paper finds that external congestion costs might necessitate public ownership to ensure a social optimal outcome in public-private partnerships.

  • 33.
    Lorenzo Varela, Juan Manuel
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.
    Daly, Andrew
    ITS Leeds.
    Public transport: One mode or several?2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 113, p. 137-156Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper develops a methodology for testing and implementing differences in preferences for a set of public transport modes, relating to observed and unobserved attributes, in state-of-practice large-scale travel demand models. Results of a case study for commuters in the Stockholm public transport system suggest that there are preference differences among public transport modes. We found that the value of time for train is lower than for bus and metro, and that it is higher for auxiliary modes than for the main mode. Surprisingly, we found no evidence for differences proportional to the in-vehicle time between bus and metro, suggesting that characteristics of in-vehicle time in these two modes are valued equally by the travellers. Nevertheless, unobserved preference for metro is higher than the preference for bus. Regarding the existence of a rail factor, we find evidence to support the hypothesis that rail-based modes have in fact a smaller time parameter (train) or higher alternative specific constant (metro), indicating that rail modes are preferable to bus, ceteris paribus.

  • 34.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Towards a Welfare Enhancing Process to Manage Railway Infrastructure Access2002In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 36, no 5, p. 419-436Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The European Commission has suggested that the use of scarce railway track capacity should be charged for on a marginal cost basis and that a welfare enhancing procedure to allocate capacity between competing operators is to be implemented. The present paper presents a practicable way to deal with these challenges. Two issues are at the analytical core of the problem.

    First, in order to prioritise, accurate information is required about the operators' willingness-to-pay for track access; to this end, an auctioning procedure has been developed. Secondly, an approach to handle the technically complex optimisatton problem is needed so that 'reasonably' optimal allocations, given the 'accurate' information, can be established; dual optimisation is suggested as the remedy. Recent experiences from the US auctioning of radio-wave frequencies are cited as supporting evidence for the rationale of the approach.

  • 35.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
    Arvidsson, Sara
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Borlänge.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro Universitet.
    Voluntary Internalization of Speeding Externalities2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 6, p. 926-937Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    High speed is an important determinant of accidents for speeders as well as for other motorists. This paper develops a framework for analyzing instruments that encourage drivers to internalize the full consequences of their behavior with respect to choice of speed using Pay-As-You-Speed (PAYS) insurance, possibly as an extension of Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) insurance. We demonstrate how the combination of a Pigovian taxation scheme and PAYS can be designed in a setting involving two principals (the state and an insurance company) that affect the incentives of commuters to choose between driving and other modes of transport and for those that use the car mode to drive carefully. While the government is assumed to maximize overall social efficiency and therefore wants to implement marginal cost pricing, insurance companies do actuarial pricing, i.e. average cost pricing within risk classes that are homogeneous to the degree that the insurers have information about actual behavior. PAYS insurance improves the insurance industry's possibility to differentiate premiums according to behavior and therefore to target risk classes in a better way than today. Moreover, since our framework is designed to accomplish differentiation by self-selection, compulsory regulation is not necessary, although there may be reason for the government to facilitate the implementation of the new technology.

  • 36.
    Peer, Stefanie
    et al.
    Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics. KTH.
    Temporal framing of stated preference experiments: does it affect valuations?2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 117, p. 319-333Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we explore how valuations of trip attributes by train commuters differ between a short-run (departure time choice) and a long-run (travel routine choice) context using a unique SP experiment explicitly designed for this purpose. In the short-run version of the SP experiment, the respondents receive information about available travel options shortly before they had planned to travel. In the long-run version, the respondents receive information about available travel options one month ahead of the planned travel. The short-run context concerns temporary changes in available travel options, while the long-run context concerns permanent changes. We find significantly higher valuations of trip attributes in the long-run context. Moreover, our results indicate that the usual arrival time at work as well as the intrinsically preferred arrival time at work serve as reference points in the short-run as well as the long-run choice context, with the former dominating in the short-run context and the latter in the long-run context.

  • 37.
    West, Jens
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Engelson, Leonid
    KTH.
    Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 94, p. 266-277Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper explores the accuracy of the transport model forecast of the Gothenburg congestion charges, implemented in 2013. The design of the charging system implies that the path disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, applying a continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution was estimated from stated choice (SC) data. However, based on experience of impact forecasting with a similar model and of impact outcome of congestion charges in Stockholm, the estimated VTT distribution had to be stretched to the right. We find that the forecast traffic reductions across the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak. However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was underpredicted off-peak. The necessity to make the adjustment indicates that the VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal the travellers’ preferences, or that there are factors determining route choice other than those included in the model: travel distance, travel time and congestion charge.

1 - 37 of 37
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