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Prognosintervall för antal allvarligt skadade i vägtrafikolyckor
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Traffic and road users, Traffic safety, society and road-user.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4680-4795
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Infrastructure maintenance.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5306-2753
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Traffic and road users, Traffic safety, society and road-user.
2016 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)Alternative title
Forecasting intervals for the number of seriously injured in road traffic accidents (English)
Abstract [sv]

Syftet med denna studie har varit att visa hur stor osäkerheten är i prognoserna för antalet allvarligt och mycket allvarligt skadade personer inom olika delpopulationer, med avseende på geografiska områden, trafikantkategorier, ålder och kön. Måttet allvarlig skada används både för att följa den allmänna trafiksäkerhetsutvecklingen i Sverige och i mer specifika studier om till exempel olika trafikantgrupper. Som allvarligt skadad definieras den som i samband med en vägtrafikolycka får skador som leder till minst 1 procents permanent medicinsk invaliditet. Som komplement används också begreppet mycket allvarlig skada som definieras på motsvarande sätt men avser skador som leder till minst 10 procents permanent medicinsk invaliditet. Eftersom invaliditetsgraden inte är känd vid olyckstillfället prognosticerar man istället antal allvarligt och mycket allvarligt skadade. Grunden för prognoserna är Strada, den nationella databasen för vägtrafikolyckor i Sverige, och en metod som tagits fram av Folksam som baseras på risken att en persons skador kommer att leda till permanent medicinsk invaliditet i framtiden. Osäkerheten i prognoserna illustreras med prognosintervall. Det visade sig under arbetets gång att härledningen av prognosintervallen var relativt rättfram för fallet med en skada per person men betydligt svårare när personerna kunde ha en kombination av flera olika skador. Prognosintervallen bestämdes därför med hjälp av simulering istället för teoretiska beräkningar.

Abstract [en]

The number of seriously injured road users is used both as an indicator of traffic safety trends in Sweden and in more specific studies of, for example, different road user groups. A seriously injured person is defined as a person who suffers injuries that lead to permanent medical impairment of at least 1 percent. The term very seriously injured is used as a complement and is defined correspondingly but refers to injuries that lead to permanent medical impairment of at least 10 percent. In practice, the level of impairment is not known at the time of the accident, and therefore the number of seriously and very seriously injured persons are forecasted. The basis for the forecasts are Strada, the national database for road traffic accidents in Sweden, and a method developed by Folksam (a Swedish insurance company) that estimates the risk that a person’s injuries will lead to permanent medical impairment in the future. The aim of this study is to present the size of the uncertainty of the forecasts for different subpopulations such as geographical areas, roads user groups, age and gender. The uncertainty of the forecasts is illustrated as forecasting intervals. It became clear during the study that derivation of the intervals was relatively easy for the case with one injury per person but considerably more difficult when the persons had a combination of several injuries. Therefore, the width of the intervals was determined using simulation instead of theoretical calculations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2016. , 40 p.
Series
VTI notat, 21-2016
Keyword [en]
Accident rate, Injury, Severity (accid, injury), Forecast, Estimation, Calculation, Simulation, Data processing, Man, Woman, Age, Road user, Region
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Research subject
80 Road: Traffic safety and accidents, 812 Road: Collation of accident statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10930OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-10930DiVA: diva2:975018
Available from: 2016-09-28 Created: 2016-09-28 Last updated: 2016-12-16Bibliographically approved

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Forsman, ÅsaEriksson, OlleEriksson, Jenny
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CiteExportLink to record
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