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Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices
Umeå universitet.
Leeds University.
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
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2015 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of the paper is to analyze how sensitive the Swedish national freight model system Samgods is to uncertainties in its production-consumption matrices (PC-matrices). This is done by studying how sensitive outputs from one of its key component, the logistics model, are to changes in the PC-matrices. This paper is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to analyze the sensitivity and economies of scale of a national freight transport model using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that the logistics model is able to find new logistics solutions when larger demand volumes are assumed. Freight volumes are calculated to shift to sea transport. If the transport volume increases with one percent, the logistics cost per tonne is on average reduced by about 0.5 percent. Part of the cost reduction comes from increased consolidation of shipments due to larger transport volumes. There is also a positive correlation between total transport demand and the load factor for heavier lorries, trains and larger ships. Without empirical data and further analysis it is difficult to assess the estimated strength of the effect. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that it might be possible to reduce runtimes by removing small transport flows from the PC-matrices without affecting aggregate results too much.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Centre for Transport Studies , 2015. , 23 p.
Series
CTS Working Paper, 2015:10
Keyword [en]
Freight transport, Model (not math), Sensitivity, Calculation
National Category
Economics
Research subject
10 Road: Transport, society, policy and planning, 12 Road: Freight transport
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-7844OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-7844DiVA: diva2:811934
Available from: 2015-05-13 Created: 2015-05-13 Last updated: 2016-02-02Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1170 kB)190 downloads
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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf