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Modeling passenger train delay distributions: evidence and implications
Karlstads universitet.
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics, TEK.
2013 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper addresses the lack of reliability within the Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time in the network.

Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size, but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and expected delay over different time scales.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, S-WoPEc, Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics , 2013.
Series
CTS Working Paper, 2013:3
Series
Karlstad University working paper in economics, 2013:10
Keyword [en]
Railway network, Passenger train, Delay, Reliability (stat), Distribution (stat), Statistics, Calculation
National Category
Economics
Research subject
J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J04 Railway: Passenger transport; J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J15 Railway: Networks
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-7464OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-7464DiVA: diva2:774278
Note

Published in: The 5th International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability (INSTR2012), Hong Kong, China, December 18-19, 2012

Available from: 2014-12-22 Created: 2014-12-22 Last updated: 2016-08-30Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(624 kB)334 downloads
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Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

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Krüger, Niclas A
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Total: 334 downloads
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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf