We wanted to determine the impact of a novel preventive care service (PCS) employing home visits by non-physician experts on the incidence of hip fractures among the elderly. We estimated an ARMA model for the time series of hip fractures in the Höganäs municipality in Sweden for the years 1987-2008. By means of intervention analysis and out of sample forecasts, we estimated the short- and long-term impact of the novel preventive care service.

We found that there is a statistically significant short-term impact of the PCS with about 8.27 fewer incidents of hip fracture. This corresponds to a long-term effect of about 3.74 fewer incidents of hip fracture per year. Since we found a statistically highly significant impact, we concluded that there was an effect on the number of hip fractures. Considering the magnitude of the effect, we found that the examined preventive care service is an economically efficient measure.