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Estimating Traffic Demand Risk: A Multiscale Analysis
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics Stockholm.
2012 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, Vol. 46, no 10, 1741-1751 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the timescale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950-2005. In general, rail transport shows a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transport. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice between public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2012. Vol. 46, no 10, 1741-1751 p.
Keyword [en]
Transport infrastructure, Investment, Risk, Economics, Growth rate, Fleet of vehicles, Ton kilometer, Mathematical model, Correlation (math, stat), Road transport, Rail bound transport
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, Railway: Economics; Road: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, Road: Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-6623DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2012.07.002ISI: 000312425200019OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-6623DiVA: diva2:687356
Available from: 2014-01-14 Created: 2014-01-14 Last updated: 2014-03-18Bibliographically approved

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