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Estimation of the severity of safety critical events
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Traffic and road users, Human-vehicle-transport system interaction.
2012 (English)In: Accident Analysis and Prevention, ISSN 0001-4575, E-ISSN 1879-2057, Vol. 50, 6 p.167-174 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Today, various measures are used to estimate the severity of a traffic conflict. However, these measures are all limited to estimating the crash risk and do not include any estimates of the possible consequences of a potential crash. In accident analysis the estimated severity of the event is related to the outcome of the crash, such as injury levels. This article proposes a new method for estimating the severity of safety critical events based on both an estimate of crash risk and an estimate of possible consequence that, in addition to a measure of safety margins, takes vehicle mass as well as the relative speed of the involved road users into consideration. The article compares the estimated severity of 61 conflicts and 9 accidents of the proposed method with the traffic conflict technique.

The results from the severity estimates of our proposed method show a significant difference in the severity levels of events involving vehicles with similar mass compared to critical events involving vehicles with dissimilar mass and events involving pedestrians. The proposed method gives the possibility to compare different conflicts, with regard to severity, with each other regardless of what type of conflict it is, e.g. intersection or rural road, or what kind of road users that are involved.

In addition, an event classification, i.e. serious or very serious event, based on the severity estimate of the proposed method, shows promising results indicating that the severities are estimated in a homogenous way. The article concludes that our proposed method of estimating the severity of critical event seems to be able to reflect the dangerousness in a more realistic way than the traffic conflict technique and should facilitate the development of traffic safety analysis methods.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2012. Vol. 50, 6 p.167-174 p.
Keyword [en]
Near miss, Severity, Method, Estimation, Mass, Accident, Analysis
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Research subject
Road: Traffic safety and accidents, Road: Road user behaviour
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-5326DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.04.007ISI: 000314191600021OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-5326DiVA: diva2:674159
Available from: 2013-12-03 Created: 2013-12-03 Last updated: 2014-09-30Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. The development of methods for detection and assessment of safety critical events in car driving
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The development of methods for detection and assessment of safety critical events in car driving
2012 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Improving our knowledge of drivers’ behaviour, especially in hazardous situations is a key to understanding why accidents occur and how to improve safety on our roads. Crash surrogate measures have proven to be very useful in traffic safety analysis. As a valid crash surrogate measure shares the same logical chain of events as actual crashes, studying those events increases the opportunities to analyze external circumstances as well as events and driver behaviour preceding the crash. A new definition of crash surrogate measures is proposed, i.e. safety critical braking events: Situations (including crashes) that require a sudden, evasive manoeuvre to avoid a crash or to correct for unsafe acts performed by the driver himself/herself or by other road users. This thesis develops a method for detecting Safety CRItical Braking Events (SCRIBE) and evaluates against other methods mostly used in large naturalistic driving studies. The evaluation shows promising results in the success rates of detecting safety critical events. Further, a Method for estimating the SEverity of safety Critical events (M-SEC) involving more than one road user, is developed and evaluated. The method combines a measure of closeness-to-collision, or safety margins, with a measure of possible consequences based on the speed and mass of the involved road users. Besides, a comparison is made with the Traffic Conflict Technique. Evaluation of the method shows that the estimated severity using M-SEC enables comparison of safety critical events involving different types of road users and is not limited to comparisons between similar types of events. In addition, the estimations when using M-SEC seem to reflect the seriousness of the safety critical events.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Lund: Lunds universitet. Tekniska högskolan. Teknik och samhälle. Trafik och väg, 2012. 72 p.
Series
Bulletin, ISSN 1653-1930 ; 277
Keyword
Near miss, Braking, Driving (veh), Driver, Behaviour, Tillbud, Bromsning, Fordonskörning, Förare, Beteende
National Category
Vehicle Engineering Applied Psychology
Research subject
Road: Traffic safety and accidents, Road: Road user behaviour
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-5310 (URN)978-91-7473-368-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2012-10-16, 16:54 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2013-12-03 Created: 2013-12-03 Last updated: 2014-09-30Bibliographically approved

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Publisher's full texthttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2012.04.007

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