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A network disaggregate model for road risk indicators: An explanatory and predictive approach
2001 (English)Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Abstract [sv]

The risk modelling research presented in this paper uses time series

constructed on monthly data and over a long period, is designed to further

the analysis of the development of road risk, by bringing together all the

explanatory factors of risk and risk exposure that appear at an infra annual

rate. The choice of monthly periodicity, which is the product of a compromise

between the variability and availability of existing data and that of the

determinants - weather and time of year conditions, traffic flow or its

substitutes (economic activity, prices, and network development), behavioural

variables and road safety measures - position this approach midway between

the modelling of daily fluctuations and the modelling of long-term trends.

We will present a version of the model limited to two types of network, main

roads and toll motorways and then also extend to the whole network. We will

first describe the structure of the model as a whole, and then go on to

outline the main results: the outcome of tests of hypothesis related to

econometric specification, the values for the indicators' elasticity to their

determinants, showing their development over the period, and the simulations

carried out in the short term. Lastly, we will discuss these findings and

suggest avenues of enquiry for continuing this research.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut., VTI konferens , 2001.
Series
VTI konferens, ISSN 1104-7267
Keyword [en]
English, Sweden, Conference, South Africa, Risk, Accident, Road network, Mathematical model, Month, Input data, Elasticity, Economics
Research subject
Road: Traffic safety and accidents, Road: Accident risk
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-4967OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-4967DiVA: diva2:673796
Available from: 2013-12-03 Created: 2013-12-03 Last updated: 2013-12-03

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf