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Järnvägstransportsystemets sårbarhet: struktur för modellformulering och metodutveckling
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
2002 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)Alternative title
The vulnerability of the railway transport system : a structure for formulation of models and development of methods (English)
Abstract [sv]

Under juni och juli sommaren 2000 drabbades mellersta Norrland av flera regnoväder som orsakade översvämningar på många håll. I mitten på juli bedömdes att rasriskerna var så stora att flera järnvägssträckor stängdes för trafik. I december år 2001 drabbades Stockholmstrakten av snöoväder. Det fick svåra konsekvenser för tågtrafiken med många inställda avgångar. Detta är två indikationer på järnvägstransportsystemets sårbarhet.

Syftet med denna rapport är att utveckla en ram för att kunna analysera järnvägstransportsystemets sårbarhet. En formell definition av sårbarheten för ett järnvägstransportsystem är sannolikheten för att systemets kapacitet sjunker till en nivå där trafik ställs in eller blir så försenad att resenärers eller godskunders nytta av transporten uteblir.

En modell för järnvägstransportsystemets sårbarhet ska redovisa hur ofta kapaciteten reducerats så att kraftiga störningar uppstår, t.ex. att fordonsomlopp inte längre kan upprätthållas, eller att trafik måste ställas in och vad som är orsaken.

Modellstrukturen består av två delar. Den första delen beskriver kapacitetens tillförlitlighet och den andra möjligheten att upprätthålla trafik med accepterad kvalitet vid förändringar i kapaciteten.

Abstract [en]

During the months of June and July in the summer of 2000, central Norrland was hit by several storms that caused flooding in many areas. In the middle of July, the risk of land slippage was considered so great that several stretches of railway line were closed to traffic. In December 2001 Stockholm suffered a severe snowstorm that had serious consequences for railway traffic, with many departures being cancelled. These are just two indications of the vulnerability of the railway transport system.

The aim of this paper is to develop a framework to be able to analyse the vulnerability of the railway transport system. A formal definition of a railway transport system's vulnerability is the probability of the system's capacity falling to such a level that traffic is cancelled or is so delayed that the benefit of the transport to travellers or goods customers is not realised.

A model of the vulnerability of the railway transport system must show how often capacity is so reduced that severe disruptions occur, e.g. that traffic flow can no longer be maintained, or that traffic must be cancelled, and what the reason is.

The model's structure consists of two parts. The first part describes the reliability of the capacity and the second how the ability to maintain traffic of acceptable quality is affected by changes in capacity.  

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut , 2002.
Series
VTI meddelande, ISSN 0347-6049 ; 932
Keyword [en]
Swedish, Sweden, Railway, Risk, Transport network, Systems analysis, Capacity, Error, Cause, Model, Planning, Accident
Research subject
J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J06 Railway: Safety; J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-4888OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-4888DiVA: diva2:673717
Available from: 2013-12-03 Created: 2013-12-03 Last updated: 2017-03-16Bibliographically approved

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fulltext(696 kB)168 downloads
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Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

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Wiklund, Mats
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CiteExportLink to record
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