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Mode Choice Latent Class Estimation on Mobile Network Data
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4926-1434
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Transport economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9235-0232
Linköpings universitet.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0353-6284
University of Leeds.
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In this paper we use a nested latent class logit specification to define and estimate a large-scale mode choice demand forecasting model. We estimate this model based on mobile phone network data translated to roughly 100 000 long-distance trips within Sweden, achieving convergence of the model and credible parameter estimates. We develop methods to address two problems stemming from the nature of this data: the difficulties of distinguishing bus trips from car trips (since they share the same infrastructure) and distinguishing business from private trips (since trip purpose is unknown). To address the first issue, we estimate a nested logit model with an artificial nest that accounts for the differences in utility between bus and car. To address the latter issue, we estimate a latent class model, identifying classes of trips interpreted as private and business trips. Addressing these two issues substantially improves model fit. 

National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19097DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4246865OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-19097DiVA, id: diva2:1706976
Available from: 2022-10-28 Created: 2022-10-28 Last updated: 2022-10-28Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Mode choice modelling of long-distance passenger transport based on mobile phone network data
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mode choice modelling of long-distance passenger transport based on mobile phone network data
2022 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Reliable forecasting models are needed to achieve the climate related goals in the face of increasing transport demand. Such models can predict the long-term behavioural response to policy interventions, including infrastructure investments, and thus provide valuable pre-dictions for decision makers. Contemporary forecasting models are mainly based on national travel surveys. Unfortunately, the response rates of such surveys have steadily declined, implying that the respondents become less representative of the whole population. A particular weakness is that it is likely that respondents with a high valuation of time are less willing to respond to surveys (because they have less time available for such), and therefore there is a high chance that they are underrepresented among the respondents. The valuation of time plays an important role for the cost benefit analyses of public policies including transport investments, and there is no reliable way of controlling for this uneven sampling of time preferences. Fortunately, there is simultaneously an increase in the number of signals sent between mobile phones and network antennae, and research has now reached the point where it is possible to determine not only the travel destination but also the travel mode based on mobile phone network antennae connections. The aim of this thesis is to investigate if and how mobile phone network data can be used to estimate transportation mode choice demand models that can be used for forecasting and planning. Key challenges with using this data source in the context of mode choice models are identified and met. The identified challenges include uncertainty in the choice variable, the difficulty to distinguish car and bus trips, and the lack of information about the trip purpose. In the first paper we propose three possible model formulations and analyse how the uncertainty in the choice outcome variable would play a role in the different model formulations. We also conclude that it is indeed possible to estimate mode choice demand models based on mobile phone network data, with good results in terms of behavioural interpretability and significance. In the second paper we estimate models using a nested logit structure to account for the difficulty in separating bus and car, and a latent class model specification to meet the challenge of having an unknown trip purpose. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2022. p. 31
Keywords
Demand model, Mode choice, Latent class, Mobile phone network data, Travel behaviour, Long-distance travel
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-18796 (URN)10.3384/9789179293604 (DOI)9789179293598 (ISBN)9789179293604 (ISBN)
Presentation
2022-06-10, K3, Kåkenhus, Campus Norrköping, 10:15 (Swedish)
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Note

Funding agencies: The research in this thesis has mainly been funded by the research projects DEMOPAN and DEMOPAN-2 within the research program Transportekonomi at The Swedish Transport Administration.

Available from: 2022-07-01 Created: 2022-07-01 Last updated: 2024-02-14Bibliographically approved

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Andersson, AngelicaBörjesson, MariaKristoffersson, Ida

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