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Modelling Maize Yield and Water Requirements under Different Climate Change Scenarios
Pan African University Institute of Water and Energy Sciences, Algeria; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Italy.
Lund University, Sweden; The Centre for Sustainable Visions, Sweden .ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5358-2217
2020 (English)In: Climate, E-ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 8, no 11, article id cli8110127Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

African countries such as Nigeria are anticipated to be more susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to large dependence on rainfed agriculture and to several uncertainties in the responses of crop production to climate change. The impacts of climate change on crop water requirements (CWR), irrigation water requirements (IWR), yields and crop water productivity (CWP) of rainfed maize in Ogun-Osun River Basin, Nigeria were evaluated for a baseline period (1986-2015) and future projection period (2021-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For the baseline period, there is no significant trend within the variables studied. However, IWR is projected to increase significantly by up to 140% in the future period, while yield might likely decline under both scenarios up to -12%. This study shows that in the future periods, supplemental irrigation has little impact in improving yields, but an increase in soil fertility can improve yields and CWP by up to 80% in 2099. This paper offers useful information on suitable adaptation measures which could be implemented by stakeholders and policymakers to counterbalance the effects of climate change on crop production.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2020. Vol. 8, no 11, article id cli8110127
Keywords [en]
Nigeria, Ogun-Osun river basin, Representative Concentration Pathway, crop water productivity, soil fertility, irrigation water requirements, CROP PRODUCTION, MANN-KENDALL, RIVER-BASIN, PRODUCTIVITY, IRRIGATION, AQUACROP, AGRICULTURE, IMPACT, VARIABILITY, ADAPTATION
National Category
Climate Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-17077DOI: 10.3390/cli8110127ISI: 000592845800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85095983243OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-17077DiVA, id: diva2:1618666
Available from: 2021-12-10 Created: 2021-12-10 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Mourad, Khaldoon A

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