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Prediction models for international roughness index and rut depth
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Infrastructure maintenance.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5306-2753
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Infrastructure maintenance.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9893-0067
2019 (English)In: Pavement and Asset Management - Proceedings of the World Conference on Pavement and Asset Management, WCPAM 2017, CRC Press/Balkema , 2019, p. 225-230Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In Sweden, road surface conditions have been assessed with laser-based profilographs since 1987. The Swedish Transport Administration needs a complete description and prediction but not all roads are assessed every year. Therefore, models are needed to forecast and complete the data. We propose a linear regression model of International Roughness Index (IRI) and rut depth against pavement age on individual 100-meter segments, with a random component pooled for all segments within the same pavement category and county. This method depends heavily on the rate at individual segments. A model that uses explanatory variables like Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), road with etc. has not showed better results. Also, the analysis does not show that the rate of change is higher the first year. We describe available data and corrections for outliers, unregistered maintenance activities and sudden changes. We also show the widths of confidence and prediction intervals for new observations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
CRC Press/Balkema , 2019. p. 225-230
Keywords [en]
Surfacing, Evenness, Index (coefficient), Rutting (wheel), Linear, Regression analysis, Mathematical model, Pavement, Age, Forecast
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Research subject
30 Road: Highway design, 33 Road: Surfacing
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-13726Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85063613022ISBN: 9780367209896 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-13726DiVA, id: diva2:1313184
Conference
World Conference on Pavement and Asset Management, WCPAM 2017, 12 June 2017 through 16 June 2017
Available from: 2019-05-02 Created: 2019-05-02 Last updated: 2019-06-28Bibliographically approved

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Eriksson, OlleLundberg, Thomas

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Total: 27 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf