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Different heuristics and same bias: A spectral analysis of biased judgments and individual decision rules
Stockholms Universitet.
Stockholms Universitet.
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Traffic and road users, Driver and vehicle.
2018 (English)In: Judgment and decision making, ISSN 1930-2975, E-ISSN 1930-2975, Vol. 13, no 5, p. 401-412Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We used correlation and spectral analyses to investigate the cognitive structures and processes producing biased judgments. We used 5 different sets of driving problems to exemplify problems that trigger biases, specifically: (1) underestimation of the impact of occasional slow speeds on mean speed judgments, (2) overestimation of braking capacity after a speed increase, (3) the time saving bias (overestimation of the time saved by increasing a high speed further, and underestimation of time saved when increasing a low speed), (4) underestimation of increase of fatal accident risk when speed is increased, and (5) underestimation of the increase of stopping distance when speed is increased. The results verified the predicted biases. A correlation analysis found no strong links between biases; only accident risk and stopping distance biases were correlated significantly. Spectral analysis of judgments was used to identify different decision rules. Most participants were consistent in their use of a single rule within a problem set with the same bias. The participants used difference, average, weighed average and ratio rules, all producing biased judgments. Among the rules, difference rules were used most frequently across the different biases. We found no personal consistency in the rules used across problem sets. The complexity of rules varied across problem sets for most participants.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Society for Judgment and Decision making , 2018. Vol. 13, no 5, p. 401-412
Keywords [en]
Decision process, Judgement (road user), Bias, Analysis (math), Cognition
National Category
Applied Psychology
Research subject
80 Road: Traffic safety and accidents, 841 Road: Road user behaviour
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-13484ISI: 000445918400001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85054310840OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-13484DiVA, id: diva2:1284209
Available from: 2019-01-31 Created: 2019-01-31 Last updated: 2019-03-15Bibliographically approved

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Eriksson, Gabriella

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf