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Where will self-driving vehicles take us?: Scenarios for the development of automated vehicles with Sweden as a case study
KTH.
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Traffic analysis and logistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3738-9318
2017 (English)Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The development of Self-Driving Vehicles (SDVs) is fast, and new pilots and tests are released every week. Among the positive effects are increased traffic throughput leading to less congestion, improved mobility for people without a driver’s license, decreased need for parking spaces, and SDV as an enabler for shared mobility. On the other hand, SDVs are expected to increase the consumption of transport which leads to an increase in total vehicle kilometers travelled. This effect is further reinforced by empty vehicles driving around. This will increase the number of vehicles on the streets and lead to more congestion and increased energy usage. Since the SDV technology is expensive, segregation may be a consequence of the development. In addition there are several challenges related to for example legislation, standardization, infrastructure investments, privacy and security. The question is not if, but rather when SDVs will be common on our streets and roads, and if they will change our way of living, and if so, how?

To this end a scenario-based future study was performed to derive a common platform for initiation of future research and innovation projects concerning SDVs in Sweden. The work has been performed by an expert group and a smaller analysis team. The expert group has involved nearly 40 persons from 20 transport organizations, including public authorities, lawyers, city planners, researchers, transport service suppliers, and vehicle manufacturers. The expert group met three times, each time focusing on a specific theme: 1) trend analysis, 2) defining scenario axes of uncertainty, and 3) consequence analysis. The analysis team, consisting of the present three authors and two future strategists, has analyzed, refined and condensed the material from the expert group. During the project certain trends and strategic uncertainties were identified by the expert group. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017.
Keywords [en]
Autonomous driving, Forecast, Planning, Impact study, Expert opinion
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
10 Road: Transport, society, policy and planning
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-12549OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-12549DiVA, id: diva2:1161219
Conference
European Transport Conference (ETC)
Available from: 2017-11-29 Created: 2017-11-29 Last updated: 2018-05-18Bibliographically approved

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Kristoffersson, Ida

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf