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Valuation of Travel Time Variability in Scheduling versus Mean-Variance Models
2010 (English)In: Proceedings of the 2010 World Conference on Transport Research, 2010Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The standard method to estimate valuations of travel timevariability for use in appraisal is to estimate the parametersof a reduced-form utility function, where some measure oftravel time variability (such as the standard deviation) isincluded. A recently discovered problem with this approachis that the obtained valuation will in general depend on thestandardized travel time distribution, and hence cannot betransferred from one context to another. Instead, we testanother recently suggested approach: estimating ascheduling model and then deriving an implied reducedformexpression, which can be used for appraisal. Thevaluations implied by the scheduling model turn out todeviate substantially from a reduced-form model estimatedon the same sample. We conclude that the schedulingmodel – in the way it is usually interpreted and estimated –is not able to capture the entire disutility of travel timevariability. Hence, although it can be shown that schedulingand reduced-form models are ‖theoretically equivalent‖,they are apparently not ‖empirically equivalent‖. Wehypothesize that the derivation of reduced-form modelsfrom an underlying scheduling model omits two essentialfeatures: first, the notion of an exogenously fixed ―preferredarrival time‖ neglects the fact that most activities can berescheduled given full information about the travel times inadvance, and second, disutility may be derived fromuncertainty as such, in the form of anxiety, decisions costsor costs for having contingency plans. Finally, we report our best estimates of the valuation of travel time variability forpublic transit trips, for use in applied appraisal.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010.
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-12349OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-12349DiVA: diva2:1139062
Conference
12th World Conference on Transport Research Society, WCTRS 2010. Lisbon, Portugal. July 11-15, 2010
Available from: 2017-09-06 Created: 2017-09-06 Last updated: 2017-09-15Bibliographically approved

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Eliasson, JonasFranklin, JoelBörjesson, Maria
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Citation style
  • apa
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Language
  • de-DE
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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