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Asplund, D. & Pyddoke, R. (2019). Optimal pricing of car use in a small city: a case study of Uppsala. tockholm: VTI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Optimal pricing of car use in a small city: a case study of Uppsala
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Studies of cities which successfully have shifted mode choice from car to more sustainable modes, suggest that coordinated packages of mutually reinforcing policy instruments are needed. Congestion charges and parking fees can be important parts of such packages. This paper aims to examine the introduction of welfare optimal congestion charges and parking fees in a model calibrated to Uppsala, a small city in Sweden. The results suggest that welfare optimal congestion charges in Uppsala are as high as EUR 3.0 in the peak hours and EUR 1.5 in the off-peak. In a rough cost-benefit analysis it is shown that the introduction of congestion charges in Uppsala are welfare improving if operating costs of congestion charges are proportional to city population size (compared to Gothenburg). The model can be used to assess when it is worthwhile to introduce congestion pricing.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
tockholm: VTI, 2019. p. 43
Series
CTS Working Paper ; 2019:2
National Category
Economics Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-14363 (URN)
Available from: 2019-11-21 Created: 2019-11-21 Last updated: 2019-11-21Bibliographically approved
Asplund, D. (2018). Discounting transport infrastructure investments. Stockholm: VTI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Discounting transport infrastructure investments
2018 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The main aim of the study is to advice the Swedish national guidelines on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of transport infrastructure investments, ASEK about the appropriate set of discount-rates (currently 3.5% for all investments). To this end, first a literature review with a theoretical focus along with some new perspectives are provided. Second the conclusions are applied to Swedish infrastructure transport CBA, using the current proposition of a new HSR line as a case. Based on empirical research concerning parameter values new discount rates are estimated, and sensitivity analysis performed. The best estimate of the social discount rate in the present study, for land transport infrastructure investment in Sweden, is about 5.1%.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: VTI, 2018. p. 41
Series
CTS Working Paper ; 2018:23
National Category
Economics Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-13713 (URN)
Available from: 2019-04-30 Created: 2019-04-30 Last updated: 2019-04-30Bibliographically approved
Asplund, D. & Pyddoke, R. (2017). A new model for analyzing differentiated fares and frequencies for urban bus services in small cities: Case study for the city of Uppsala.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A new model for analyzing differentiated fares and frequencies for urban bus services in small cities: Case study for the city of Uppsala
2017 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for welfare evaluation of fare and frequency policies for bus services in smaller or medium-sized cities handling both congestion and crowding in public transport. The model with data for the city of Uppsala. Two scenarios with marginal increases in frequencies and fares are evaluated. Then four main optimal policies are evaluated: fares with unchanged base line frequencies, frequencies with unchanged base line fares, simultaneous optimization of fares and frequencies and finally a scenario called the Pareto scenario where frequencies and fares are optimized subject to the condition that no consumer group (defined by zone, time period, origin-destination pair) should be worse of in terms of generalized cost of trip.

The results indicate that there are large, seemingly robust welfare gains from reducing public transport supply in Uppsala, especially in the outer zone of the city where reductions compared to the current situation are rather drastic. In comparison, welfare gains from adjusting fares are smaller. As there are large distributional effects in the welfare optimum, introduction of such a policy it is likely to be controversial. However, in an additionally examined scenario, almost all of the potential social welfare gains from the welfare optimal scenario is achieved while no consumer in any zone or time period is worse off compared to present policy. In this scenario, the total number of public transport passengers are increased and emissions are reduced compared to the current situation.

Abstract [sv]

Syftet med detta projekt är att utveckla en modell för välfärdsutvärdering av pris- och frekvenspolitik för kollektivtrafik med buss i en mindre eller medelstora städer som hanterar både vägträngsel och trängsel i kollektivtrafiken. Modellen har anpassats till data från Uppsala. Två scenarier med marginella ökningar i frekvenser och biljettpriser utvärderas. Därefter utvärderas fyra huvudscenarier för optimala policys: priser med oförändrad turtäthet, turtätheter med oförändrade priser, priser och frekvenser samtidigt optimerade och slutligen ett scenario kallat Paretoscenariet, där frekvenser och biljettpriser optimeras förutsatt att ingen konsumentgrupp (definierad av zon, tidsperiod, ursprungsdestination par) får det sämre i termer av generaliserad reskostnad. Resultaten tyder på att det finns stora, till synes robusta välfärdseffekter av att minska turtätheten i Uppsala, särskilt stadens yttre zon, där minskningar jämfört med nuvarande situation är ganska drastiska. Jämförelsevis är välfärdsvinsterna av att justera priserna mindre. Eftersom det blir stora fördelningseffekter i optimum scenariot är införandet av en sådan politik sannolikt kontroversiell. I Paretoscenariet uppnås emellertid nästan alla välfärdsvinster som uppnås i det optimala scenariot, medan ingen konsument i någon zon eller tidsperiod är sämre än jämfört med nuvarande policy. I detta scenario ökar det totala antalet kollektivtrafikpassagerare och utsläppen minskas jämfört med nuvarande situation.

Publisher
p. 34
Series
K2 Working Papers ; 2017:8
Keywords
Public transport, Bus, Tariff, Timetable, Frequency, Congestion (traffic), Social cost
National Category
Economics
Research subject
10 Road: Transport, society, policy and planning, 111 Road: Public transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-12472 (URN)
Available from: 2017-10-23 Created: 2017-10-23 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
Asplund, D. (2017). Household Production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption. The B.E. Journals in Economic Analysis & Policy, 17(4), Article ID 20160265.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Household Production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption
2017 (English)In: The B.E. Journals in Economic Analysis & Policy, ISSN 1935-1682, E-ISSN 1935-1682, Vol. 17, no 4, article id 20160265Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The popular approach to estimating the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption (EMUC) (Chetty 2006, "A New Method of Estimating Risk Aversion." American Economic Review 96 (5):1821-1834. doi:10.1257/aer.96.5.1821. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.96.5.1821) is here extended by including household production. It is shown that this generalization of the model is important as omission of household production may lead to bias, as demonstrated in a numerical sensitivity analysis. An extended model with household production is used to derive new EMUC formulas. Empirical estimates based on current evidence of the included parameters suggest a lower bound for EMUC of about 0.9.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
WALTER DE GRUYTER GMBH, 2017
Keywords
Economics, Household, Elasticity, Mathematical model
National Category
Economics
Research subject
SAB, Qa Economics and finance
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-12565 (URN)10.1515/bejeap-2016-0265 (DOI)000415583800002 ()
Available from: 2017-12-07 Created: 2017-12-07 Last updated: 2017-12-07Bibliographically approved
Asplund, D. & Westin, J. (2017). Modellering av slingor inom sjötransporter. Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modellering av slingor inom sjötransporter
2017 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Modelling sea transport loops
Abstract [sv]

Den svenska nationella godstransportmodellen Samgods simulerar logistikbeslut på en disaggregerad företagsnivå. En för sjöfarten viktig modellbegränsning är att all linjetrafik modelleras med endast två noder, det vill säga varje fartyg antas enbart köra fram och tillbaka mellan en start- och en målpunkt. I verkligheten kör ofta godsfartyg i slingor mellan olika hamnar för att på ett bättre sätt utnyttja sjöfartens skalfördelar. Syftet med denna rapport är att analysera effekten av att i en transportmodell av Samgodstyp tillåta fartygsoperatörer att utöver direkta rutter mellan två hamnar, även utnyttja mer komplexa transportslingor till sjöss och genom detta samlasta varor mellan flera olika hamnar på samma fartyg. Detta görs genom att utveckla en ny (fristående) modell för godstransporter med linjefartyg, kallad LIFREM (Loops Including FREight Model). Denna modell kalibreras för en fallstudie som utgår ifrån export av vissa skogsprodukter från Norrland via Östersjön och Nordsjön. Resultaten visar att då vi inför fördefinierade slingor så minskar totala logistikkostnader med ca 10 % och då vi tillåter fartygsoperatören att fritt välja slingor så minskar de med hela 21 %, och då har vi inte inkluderat möjliga vinster av att utnyttja kapaciteten på tillbakaresan för returtransporter (som i verkligheten är betydande). Detta visar att modellering av slingor är betydelsefullt för att kunna spegla sjöfartens konkurrenskraft gentemot de andra trafikslagen på ett verklighetstroget vis. Detta bekräftas också av det faktum att andelen sjöfart går upp med 2–4 % i LIFREM då slingor tillåts.

Abstract [en]

The Swedish national freight transport model system Samgods is a freight model that simulates logistics decision at a disaggregated firm-to-firm level. The model calculates total annual transport demand in Sweden for all transport modes based on a deterministic cost minimization approach. The model cannot consolidate commodities of different commodity types in the same vessel, train or truck and can only simulate vessels using direct routes between two ports. This implies that many of the features of sea transport such as utilizing larger vessels and building loops to consolidate goods from different ports is not possible in the current Samgods version. In this paper, we analyze the effect of removing restrictions in sea transportation especially by allowing the ship operators to construct and utilize loops. In the new model, LIFREM (Loops Including FREight Model), the shippers’ choice of sea transport routes is modelled as a mixed integer linear programming optimization problem. In doing so, we make use of a case study on sea transport of forest products from Northern Sweden to Western Europe. The results show that allowing predefined loops decreases total logistic cost by 10% and allowing the shipper to freely select loops decreases the cost by 21%. These results show that modelling of loops is important in order to realistically represent the attractiveness of the sea transport mode. This is also confirmed by the fact that the sea mode share increases by 2–4% in LIFREM when loops are allowed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2017. p. 36
Series
VTI notat ; 31-2016
Keywords
Freight transport, Forecast, Model (not math), Calculation, Estimation, Method, Maritime transport, Route (itinerary), Trip chain
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
SAB, Prc Ships and shipping
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-11752 (URN)
Available from: 2017-04-21 Created: 2017-04-10 Last updated: 2019-05-16Bibliographically approved
Asplund, D. (2016). Cost-Benefit Analysis of climate policy and long term public investments. (Doctoral dissertation). Örebro: Örebro university
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Cost-Benefit Analysis of climate policy and long term public investments
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This compilation dissertation consists of four essays with the common theme of welfare analysis of long-term public investments. The first two essays focus on analysis of climate change mitigation, i.e., the social cost of carbon dioxide. The third essay focuses on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of transport investment projects, while the last essay takes a broader perspective on welfare analysis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Örebro: Örebro university, 2016. p. 33
Series
Örebro Studies in Economics, ISSN 1651-8896 ; 32
Keywords
Cost benefit analysis, Investment, Climate change, Transport infrastructure
National Category
Economics
Research subject
SAB, Qa Economics and finance
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10843 (URN)978-91-7529-127-7 (ISBN)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2016-08-19 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
Asplund, D. & Eliasson, J. (2016). Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 92, 195-205
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?
2016 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, p. 195-205Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty.

Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Provided that decisions are based on CBA outcomes, reducing uncertainty is still worthwhile, however, because of the huge sums at stake. Even moderate reductions of uncertainties about unit values, investment costs, future demand and project effects may increase the realized benefits infrastructure investment plans by tens or hundreds of million euros. We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

Keywords
Cost benefit analysis, Priority (gen), Investment, Transport infrastructure, Simulation, Sensitivity, Calculation
National Category
Economics Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
00 Road: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, 02 Road: Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10995 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2016.08.002 (DOI)2-s2.0-84989866931 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2016-11-17 Created: 2016-11-03 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
Asplund, D. (2016). Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?. Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?
2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Reducing uncertainty can still be worthwhile, however, because of the huge amounts of money at stake: a 10% reduction in general uncertainty can increase the realized benefits of a national infrastructure investment plan by nearly 100 million euro (assuming that decisions are based on the CBAs). We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2016. p. 18
Keywords
Cost benefit analysis, Transport infrastructure, Investment, Decision process
National Category
Economics
Research subject
SAB, Qa Economics and finance
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10841 (URN)
Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
Asplund, D. (2016). Household production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption. Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Household production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption
2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Chetty (2006) developed a new method of estimating the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption (EMUC) from observed work time responses to wage changes and derived an upper bound of 2 for this parameter. Here I show that the omission of household production in Chetty’s model may lead to bias, and perform a numerical sensitivity analysis of Chetty’s results in this respect. I develop a new model that includes household production from which I derive new, unbiased EMUC formulas. I offer empirical estimates based on current evidence of the included parameters, suggesting a lower bound for EMUC of about 0.9.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2016. p. 38
Series
CTS Working Paper ; 2016:10
Keywords
Economics, Household, Production, Mathematical model
National Category
Economics
Research subject
SAB, Qa Economics and finance
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10842 (URN)
Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
Asplund, D. (2012). Avoiding path dependence of distributional weights: Lessons from climate change economic assessment. Örebro
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Avoiding path dependence of distributional weights: Lessons from climate change economic assessment
2012 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

 In some cost benefit analysis (CBA) applications, such as those used for the valuation of climate change damage, distributional weights are used to account for diminishing utility of marginal income. This is usually done by means of intra-temporal distributional weights, which are combined with discounting to account for inter-temporal equity and efficiency. Here, I show that this approach might introduce some inconsistencies in terms of path dependence. In short, this inconsistency means that regional economic growth is double counted. This is because income weighting is performed both through the discount rate and through the distributional weights such that growth shows up twice in the weighting process. Using the PAGE2002 model, it is found that the inconsistency problem in the original model erases the influence of distributional weights on the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2) compared to a standard CBA approach. The alternative approaches proposed here yield about 20 %–40 % higher values of SCCO2 than the old approach. While this has been briefly commented on in previous work, it has not yet been more thoroughly analyzed nor communicated to the broader community of climate policy and economic analysts who are not deeply interested in the specifications of the climate impact assessment models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Örebro: , 2012. p. 20
Series
CTS Working Paper
Keywords
Economics, Climate change, Cost benefit analysis, Distribution (gen)
National Category
Economics
Research subject
SAB, Qb Managerial economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10840 (URN)
Note

Revised 2016

Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-12 Last updated: 2017-11-06Bibliographically approved
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Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-4209-1997

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