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Odolinski, Kristofer
Publications (10 of 26) Show all publications
Johansson, M. & Odolinski, K. (2020). Kinas nya sidenvägar: effekter på svensk handel och svenska transporter. Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Kinas nya sidenvägar: effekter på svensk handel och svenska transporter
2020 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
The Belt and Road Initiative : effects on Swedish trade and Swedish transports
Abstract [sv]

VTI har på uppdrag av Trafikanalys gjort en bedömning av hur startade och aviserade infrastrukturinvesteringar inom det så kallade Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) kan komma att påverka svensk handel och svenska transporter. BRI är en global utvecklingsstrategi som Kina lanserade 2013 och som beräknas fortlöpa till år 2049. I mars 2019 inkluderade initiativet 125 länder och 29 internationella organisationer som i olika konstellationer samarbetade under 173 samverkansavtal1. I föreliggande notat ligger fokus på de infrastrukturinvesteringar som genomförs för att underlätta handeln mellan Asien och Europa.

Utfallet som studeras är endast kopplat till förändringar i transporttider och kostnader för handel. Det görs ingen bedömning av hur BRI kan påverka olika länders tillväxt, vilket ytterligare skulle påverka svensk och internationell handel. Totalt beaktas 93 olika infrastrukturprojekt, 67 kopplade till landtransporter (framförallt järnväg) och 26 till sjötransporter. För järnvägstransporter är det tre huvudsakliga stråk som byggs ut; ett transsibiriskt stråk genom Ryssland som kopplar till Kinas nordliga delar, ett stråk via Kazakstan som kopplar till Kinas nordvästra delar och ett sydligt stråk via Turkiet och Iran som kopplar till sydvästra Kina. Stråket via Kazakstan är det som utnyttjas mest idag, medan det sydliga stråket kräver omfattande investeringar. För sjötransporter är merparten av projekten förstärkningar i hamninfrastrukturen utmed befintliga rutter från östra Kina via Suezkanalen, men det finns också planer på att bygga den så kallade Thaikanalen för att slippa köra runt Malackahalvön samt att öppna farleder genom Norra ishavet och Berings sund.

Effekter på bilateral handel estimeras via en ekonometrisk modell, en så kallad gravitationsmodell, vars parametrar skattas mot handelsflöden och landspecifika variabler för åren 1988 till 2017. Specifikt används modellen för att bedöma effekten av att reducera avståndsfriktionen i handeln med de länder som påverkas av infrastrukturinvesteringarna inom BRI. Förändringar i avståndsfriktioner baseras på beräkningar av de Soyres et al. (2018) som visar hur BRI-projekten potentiellt kan förbättra transporttider och handelskostnader mellan olika länder. I ett andra steg studeras effekter på transporter genom att låta Trafikverkets nationella godstransportmodell estimera transportlösningar, dels med varugruppsspecifika efterfrågematriser enligt Trafikverkets officiella godstransportprognos till 2040, dels med efterfrågematriser som reviderats mot bakgrund av resultaten från handelsmodellen. Genomgående görs också mer övergripande kopplingar mellan handel och transporter via beskrivningar av Sveriges nuvarande handel med de länder som påverkas mest av BRI och tidigare gjorda estimat över transportvolymer och transportmönster för olika varugrupper.

Abstract [en]

VTI has been commissioned by Trafikanalys to assess how initiated and announced infrastructure investments within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can impact Swedish trade and Swedish transports. BRI is a global development strategy launched by China in 2013 and is expected to continue until 2049. By March 2019, the initiative comprised 125 countries and 29 international organizations that cooperated within 173 coordination agreements in various constellations. In this report, the focus is on infrastructure investments that are carried out to facilitate trade between Asia and Europe.

The analyzed outcome is only connected to changes in transport time and trade costs. No assessment is made on how BRI may affect economic growth in different countries, which would further impact Swedish and international trade. In total, 93 infrastructure projects are included in the analysis, of which 67 are related to land transports (railways in particular) and 26 are related to maritime transports. There are three major railway routes that are included; a Trans-Siberian route through Russia that connects to the northern part of China, a route via Kazakhstan that connects to the north western parts of China, and a southern route via Turkey and Iran that connects to south western China. The route via Kazakhstan is the most utilized route today, while the southern route requires major investments. For maritime transports, most of the projects are reinforcements of port infrastructure along current routes from eastern China via the Suez canal, while there are also plans to develop the so called Thai canal to avoid the route around the Malay Peninsula, as well as to open waterways through the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Strait.

Effects on bilateral trade are estimated with an econometric (gravity) model, using trade flows and country specific variables during years 1988 to 2017. Specifically, the model is used to examine the effect of a reduction in trade frictions between countries. Changes in these trade frictions are based on calculations in de Soyres et al. (2018), indicating the potential improvements in transport times and trade costs generated by projects in BRI. In a second stage, the effects on Swedish transports are analyzed using the Swedish national model for freight transportation (Samgods), in which different transport solutions are estimated. In particular, these solutions are estimated with the commodity specific demand matrices in the Swedish Transport Administration’s (Trafikverkets) freight transport forecast for year 2040, as well as with demand matrices that are revised based on the BRI results from the gravity model. In addition, trade and transports are linked together based on descriptions of Sweden’s current trade with countries mostly affected by BRI and based on previous estimates of transport volumes and transport patterns for different commodity groups.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2020. p. 54
Series
VTI notat ; 25-2019
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-14961 (URN)
Available from: 2020-02-24 Created: 2020-02-24 Last updated: 2020-02-24Bibliographically approved
Odolinski, K. (2019). Contract design and performance of railway maintenance: Effects of incentive intensity and performance incentive schemes. Economics of Transportation, 18, 50-59
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Contract design and performance of railway maintenance: Effects of incentive intensity and performance incentive schemes
2019 (English)In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130, Vol. 18, p. 50-59Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper we study the effect of contract design on the performance of railway maintenance in Sweden, using a panel data set over the period 2003-2013. The effect of incentive intensity is estimated, showing that the power of incentive schemes improve performance as measured by the number of infrastructure failures. In addition, we show that the structure of the performance incentive schemes has resulted in a reallocation of effort from failures not causing train delays to failures causing train delays, with a substantial increase in the former type of failures. This signals a deteriorating asset condition, which highlights the need to consider the long-term effects of this incentive structure. Overall, this work shows that the design of the incentive structures has a large impact on the performance of maintenance, and that the estimated effects are important to consider when assessing contract designs within this field.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2019
Keywords
Maintenance (veh), Railway network, Track (railway), Contract, Characteristics, Performance, Incentive (reward), Evaluation (assessment)
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J01 Railway: Railway track
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-14005 (URN)10.1016/j.ecotra.2019.05.001 (DOI)000470120800005 ()2-s2.0-85066439189 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2019-08-19 Created: 2019-08-19 Last updated: 2020-04-03Bibliographically approved
Odolinski, K. (2019). Estimating the Impact of Traffic on Rail Infrastructure Maintenance Costs The Importance of Axle Loads. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 53, 258-274
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimating the Impact of Traffic on Rail Infrastructure Maintenance Costs The Importance of Axle Loads
2019 (English)In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 53, p. 258-274Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we estimate the impact of axle loads on rail infrastructure maintenance costs. The results show that cost elasticities with respect to traffic increase with axle load. Using these elasticities, we calculate marginal costs for traffic that are differentiated with respect to the trains' average tonnage per axle. The results are relevant when setting track access charges in Europe as well as for railway cost studies in general, considering that the empirical evidence in this paper gives support to the engineering perspective - that is, axle loads are important to consider when assessing the damage caused by traffic.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
University of Bath, 2019
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-14066 (URN)000473271800004 ()eid=2-s2.0-85073654261 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2019-09-09 Created: 2019-09-09 Last updated: 2020-01-14Bibliographically approved
Odolinski, K. & Pyddoke, R. (2019). Price elasticities of demand for (garage) parking in Stockholm. Stockholm: VTI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Price elasticities of demand for (garage) parking in Stockholm
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

There is scope for generating welfare effects by changing parking fees, where knowledge on price elasticities are central elements in the implementation of an efficient parking policy. In this paper, we estimate price elasticities of demand for five parking garages in the central business district of Stockholm, using transaction data and a price increase implemented in January 2017. The econometric results for the purchased parking hours show an average elasticity estimate at -0.60, while the effect on the decision to park is -0.45. These elasticities vary for the different parking garages, showing that there is a considerable heterogeneity between garages, even within the central business district, which needs to be considered for an efficient parking policy. Based on our estimated elasticity for garage parking (-0.60) and a willingness to pay a premium for curbside parking in previous research, we calculate a proxy for the elasticity of curbside parking in Stockholm, which is found to be -0.39.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: VTI, 2019. p. 29
Series
CTS Working Paper ; 2019:2
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-14295 (URN)
Available from: 2019-10-28 Created: 2019-10-28 Last updated: 2019-10-30Bibliographically approved
Odolinski, K. (2019). The impact of cumulative tonnes on track failures: an empirical approach. Stockholm: VTI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The impact of cumulative tonnes on track failures: an empirical approach
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Cost-benefit analysis is often used in appraisal of rail infrastructure investments. A corresponding decision support is, however, not available for rail infrastructure maintenance and renewal. To for example decide whether to renew or continue to maintain an infrastructure asset, a relationship between cumulative traffic and infrastructure failures is required. This relationship is established in this paper, using an empirical (top-down) approach on Swedish data for years 2003 to 2016. It is shown that the average elasticity for track failures with respect to cumulative tonnes is 0.32, and that the elasticity varies for different levels of traffic and for different infrastructure characteristics. The results in this paper can for example be used to calculate the impact cumulative tonnes have on train delay costs, which together with a relationship between cumulative traffic and infrastructure maintenance costs are essential in an economic optimization of maintenance and renewal activities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: VTI, 2019. p. 27
Series
CTS Working Paper ; 2019:1
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-13904 (URN)
Available from: 2019-06-20 Created: 2019-06-20 Last updated: 2019-06-20Bibliographically approved
Odolinski, K. & Wheat, P. (2018). Dynamics in rail infrastructure provision: Maintenance and renewal costs in Sweden. Economics of Transportation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Dynamics in rail infrastructure provision: Maintenance and renewal costs in Sweden
2018 (English)In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130Article in journal (Refereed) In press
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we extend to the literature on marginal wear and tear cost estimation in railways, by applying a panel vector autoregressive model to rail infrastructure renewals and maintenance costs, using an extensive dataset from Sweden. This study is significant given the inherent difficulties in modelling the substantial renewals element of infrastructure costs, as well as the need to account for the dynamics in renewals and maintenance. The dynamic model allows us to estimate equilibrium cost elasticities with respect to train usage, which are significantly larger than their static counterparts. Overall, this work highlights that dynamics in rail infrastructure costs are important to consider when setting track access charges with respect to the wear and tear caused by traffic. This is particularly important given several countries, for example France, Sweden and Switzerland, are now setting access charges at marginal costs based on econometric studies.

Keywords
Railway, Maintenance, Cost, Wear, Prediction, Dynamics, Mathematical model
National Category
Economics
Research subject
J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J01 Railway: Railway track; J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J13 Railway: Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-12789 (URN)10.1016/j.ecotra.2018.01.001 (DOI)
Available from: 2018-02-24 Created: 2018-02-24 Last updated: 2018-05-18Bibliographically approved
Odolinski, K. (2018). Marginalkostnader för järnvägsunderhåll: trafikens påverkan på olika anläggningar. Stockholm: VTI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Marginalkostnader för järnvägsunderhåll: trafikens påverkan på olika anläggningar
2018 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

En del av banavgiften för nyttjandet av infrastrukturen består av kostnader för järnvägsunderhåll som uppstår som en direkt följd av tågtrafiken. Då nedbrytning och slitage av vissa järnvägsanläggningar och komponenter inte påverkas av trafik, kan det göras gällande att underhållskostnader för dessa inte bör ingå i en marginalkostnadsbaserad avgift. I denna studie skattar vi kostnadselasticiteter med en ekonometrisk metod för att undersöka om och hur trafik påverkar underhållskostnader för olika grupper av järnvägsanläggningar. Resultaten visar att det finns statistiskt signifikanta samband mellan trafik och underhållskostnader för anläggningsgrupperna Bana, El, Signal och Tele. En förklaring till sambanden för exempelvis signal- och teleanläggningar är att mer förebyggande underhåll genomförs för att upprätthålla en viss tillförlitlighet hos anläggningen när trafiken ökar och därmed undvika en ökad kostnad för inställda och försenade tåg – en kostnad som kan öka oavsett om mer trafik orsakar en ökad nedbrytning eller inte.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: VTI, 2018. p. 42
Series
CTS Working Paper ; 2018:24
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-13712 (URN)
Available from: 2019-04-30 Created: 2019-04-30 Last updated: 2019-04-30Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, J.-E. & Odolinski, K. (2018). Marginalkostnader för reinvesteringar i järnvägsanläggningar: en delrapport inom SAMKOST 3. Stockholm: VTI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Marginalkostnader för reinvesteringar i järnvägsanläggningar: en delrapport inom SAMKOST 3
2018 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Reinvesteringar i järnvägsanläggningar påverkas av trafik och utgör därför en komponent i marginalkostnaden för nyttjandet av infrastrukturen. Tidigare studier har traditionellt fokuserat på reinvesteringskostnader i banöverbyggnad. I denna studie skattas separata marginalkostnader för reinvesteringar i Bana (banöverbyggnad, banunderbyggnad, bangårdar), El, Signal, Tele och Övriga anläggningar. Trots att slitage av exempelvis signal- och teleanläggningar inte torde variera med trafik, finner vi statistiskt signifikanta samband mellan trafik och reinvesteringar i samtliga anläggningar. En förklaring är att trafikökningen innebär en ökad störningskostnad, även i frånvaron av ett trafikberoende slitage, och därmed att reinvesteringen tidigareläggs. Analysen visar även att de skattade effekterna främst kommer från jämförelser mellan bandelar, vilket innebär en risk att de (delvis) är korrelationer och inte kausala samband mellan trafik och reinvesteringar. När marginalkostnaderna för anläggningsgrupperna läggs samman hamnar de på 0,0141 kr per bruttotonkilometer och 4,4520 kr per tågkilometer.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: VTI, 2018. p. 50
Series
CTS Working Paper ; 2018:22
National Category
Economics Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-13714 (URN)
Available from: 2019-04-30 Created: 2019-04-30 Last updated: 2019-04-30Bibliographically approved
Odolinski, K. & Boysen, H. E. E. (2018). Railway line capacity utilisation and its impact on maintenance costs. Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Railway line capacity utilisation and its impact on maintenance costs
2018 (English)In: Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, ISSN 2210-9706, E-ISSN 2210-9714Article in journal (Refereed) In press
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we analyse how railway maintenance costs are affected by different levels of railway line capacity utilisation. Previous studies have focused on the wear and tear of the infrastructure, while this paper shows that it is important to also acknowledge the heterogeneity of the maintenance production environment. Specifically, we estimate marginal maintenance costs for traffic using econometric methods on a panel dataset from Sweden and show that these costs increase with line capacity utilisation. The results are significant considering that current EU regulation (2015/909) states that track access charges can be based on marginal costs, with the aim of achieving an efficient use of available infrastructure capacity.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
Keywords
Railway track, Maintenance, Cost, Capacity (traffic network), Impact study, Use
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J13 Railway: Economics; J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J01 Railway: Railway track
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-13552 (URN)10.1016/j.jrtpm.2018.12.001 (DOI)2-s2.0-85058193099 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2019-01-30 Created: 2019-01-30 Last updated: 2019-03-15Bibliographically approved
Odolinski, K., Yarmukhamedov, S., Nilsson, J.-E. & Haraldsson, M. (2018). The marginal cost of track reinvestments in the Swedish railway network: using data to compare methods. Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The marginal cost of track reinvestments in the Swedish railway network: using data to compare methods
2018 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In this study, we analyze the difference between survival and corner solution models in estimating the marginal cost of reinvestments. Both approaches describe the reinvestment process in rather intuitively similar ways but have several methodological distinctions. We use Swedish railway data on track segment and section levels over the period 1999-2016 and focus on reinvestments in track superstructure. Results suggest the marginal costs from survival and corner solution models are SEK 0.0041 and SEK 0.0103, respectively. The conclusion is that the corner solution model is more appropriate, as this method consider the impact traffic has on the risk of reinvestment as well as on the size of the reinvestment cost. The survival approach does not consider the latter, which is problematic when we have systematic variations in costs due to traffic and infrastructure characteristics.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2018. p. 20
Series
CTS Working Paper ; 2018:20
National Category
Economics Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-13363 (URN)
Available from: 2018-11-09 Created: 2018-11-09 Last updated: 2018-11-09Bibliographically approved
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