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Odolinski, K., Nilsson, J.-E., Sjöstrand, H., Ait Ali, A. & Lidén, T. (2023). Att följa upp och utvärdera järnvägsunderhåll: Delrapport inom projektet Metod för jämförelsestudier av järnvägsunderhåll. Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Att följa upp och utvärdera järnvägsunderhåll: Delrapport inom projektet Metod för jämförelsestudier av järnvägsunderhåll
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2023 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Monitoring and evaluating railway maintenance : Interim report of the projectMethodology for comparative studies of railway maintenance
Abstract [sv]

Med start 2025 avser Trafikverket förändra formerna för upphandling av basunderhåll i tre geografiska områden. Förändringarna innebär att en större mängd planering och produktionsledning sker i Trafikverkets regi. Syftet är att utveckla den egna beställarförmågan och att stärka leverantörsmarknaden.

VTI har fått Trafikverkets uppdrag att föreslå metoder för att kunna följa upp konsekvenserna av den förändrade organisationen. I rapporten redovisas uppdragets första del med fokus på konsekvenserna av ett förändrat ansvar för basunderhåll av Södra Malmbanan. Syftet med delstudien är att identifiera den information som krävs och de metoder som kommer att användas för att fördjupa förståelsen av hur den nya ansvarsfördelningen förändrar kostnader och förutsättningarna för trafik jämfört med dagens förfarande. Förutom att skapa goda förutsättningar att utvärdera de förändringar som genomförs kommer detta arbete också att kunna ge stöd för övergången till nya verksamhetsupplägg i de ytterligare två områden som står på tur att förändras, Ostkustbanan (2026) och Mälarbanan (2027). Information har inhämtats från personal inom Trafikverket och från aktörer på leverantörsmarknaden, samt via analyser av dokumentationen av underhållsverksamheten liksom en genomgång av relevant litteratur.

De betydande förändringar av verksamheten som förestår kan få konsekvenser i flera avseenden. För att kunna följa upp och jämföra kostnader och andra utfall i hela landet krävs uppgifter från samtliga kontraktsområden med avseende på verksamhetens kostnader, omfattning (antal kilometer bana, installationer av växlar och konstbyggnader), trafik, väder etcetera. Tack vare att Trafikverket sedan länge byggt upp databaser som innehåller den aktuella informationen är en viktig del av det fortsatta arbetet att etablera ett smidigt tillvägagångssätt för att årligen kunna komplettera informationen och göra nya observationer av förändringar som kan ha inträffat. Ett antal frågeställningar föreslås som kan besvaras med stöd av en analys av det föreslagna materialet. Svaret på dessa frågor gör det möjligt att stärka förståelsen av den verksamhet som bedrivs och att ta fram kunskap som kan omsättas i praktiken.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2023. p. 57
Series
VTI PM ; 2023:13
Keywords
Underhåll, järnväg, egen regi, upphandling, effektivitet, beställarkunskap
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-20081 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration, 2023/4028
Available from: 2023-12-20 Created: 2023-12-20 Last updated: 2023-12-22Bibliographically approved
Odolinski, K., Smith, A., Wheat, P., Nilsson, J.-E. & Dheilly, C. (2023). Damage or no damage from traffic: Re-examining marginal cost pricing for rail signalling maintenance. Transport Policy, 131, 13-21
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Damage or no damage from traffic: Re-examining marginal cost pricing for rail signalling maintenance
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2023 (English)In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 131, p. 13-21Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper re-examines the implementation of the short run marginal cost (SRMC) pricing principle with respect to rail infrastructure usage and empirically tests if there are rail infrastructure maintenance costs triggered by traffic but not caused by asset damage from traffic. This is important because current EU legislation stipulates that only costs related to infrastructure wear and tear from traffic are eligible for the direct cost-based element of track access charges. An econometric approach is applied to French panel data on signalling maintenance costs. The results show that the SRMC for infrastructure provision of these assets is not only related to asset damage costs caused by traffic, but can also be due to economic factors linked to increased line capacity utilisation: 1) higher cost per maintenance activity, and/or 2) increased preventative maintenance to curb delays. Our work offers an explanation as to why econometric and engineering approaches give different views of rail infrastructure cost variability and suggests that EU legislation on track access pricing may need to be revised. © 2022 The Author(s)

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2023
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19422 (URN)10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.11.013 (DOI)2-s2.0-85145565486 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-01-17 Created: 2023-01-17 Last updated: 2023-01-17Bibliographically approved
Ridderstedt, I. & Nilsson, J.-E. (2023). Economies of scale versus the costs of bundling: Evidence from procurements of highway pavement replacement. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 173(July), Article ID 103701.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Economies of scale versus the costs of bundling: Evidence from procurements of highway pavement replacement
2023 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 173, no July, article id 103701Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Although most public procurements involve decisions concerning bundling, only a limited body of empirical research guides policy on this matter. In this paper, we examine the cost effects of bundling in the competitive tendering of highway pavement replacement with hot-mix asphalt. For this we use linear regression on data from a comprehensive sample of such contracts procured by the Swedish infrastructure manager (IM) during the 2012–2015 period. We find that bundling affects the procurer's cost in multiple and partly counteracting ways. Our results show that economies of scale are strong but diminishing and counteracted by the costs of bundling and bundling-related factors. Overall, the findings support the Swedish IM's current bundle design but also suggest that most of the contracts are still inefficiently small. While not perfectly generalizable to other markets, the findings provide some support for the increased promotion and use of the bundling of small-scale road rehabilitation projects in the USA. Two main implications of the results are that bundling policy should emphasize proximity and similarity rather than whether the work is small in scale and that the scope for efficient bundling should be accounted for when optimizing the timing of pavement replacement.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2023
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19751 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2023.103701 (DOI)001017169900001 ()2-s2.0-85159571164 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-06-02 Created: 2023-06-02 Last updated: 2023-10-10Bibliographically approved
Smith, A. S. J., Nilsson, J.-E., Ridderstedt, I. & Johansson, O. (2023). Efficiency measurement in the tendering of road surface renewal contracts. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 60(2), 189-202
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Efficiency measurement in the tendering of road surface renewal contracts
2023 (English)In: Journal of Productivity Analysis, ISSN 0895-562X, E-ISSN 1573-0441, Vol. 60, no 2, p. 189-202Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The problem of slow productivity growth in the road construction (and wider construction) industry is well known. The present paper suggests a means for efficiency analysis in one part of this industry, namely road surface renewal in Sweden, built upon the application of Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) techniques. The paper is novel in that it focuses on project level rather than firm or contractor level performance and takes the perspective of the inefficiency that may result from the way the contracts are specified by the highway agency’s pavement engineers (client side). We compare 233 renewal contracts tendered over a four-year period via the estimation of a cost frontier, with controls for heterogeneity between projects. Our results produce first estimates that expose substantive differences in the relative efficiency performance of different engineers within the Swedish highways procurement organisation (Trafikverket); with indicative savings of around €40 m out of a total road renewals budget in Sweden of €200 m. We also find substantial economies of scale that could, in principle, point to further cost savings if road renewal projects can be packaged up as larger projects. These client-side savings represent potentially important sources of savings in addition to those that can be achieved through the pressure of competitive tendering on the supplier side. The paper therefore illustrates how disaggregate analysis of project level information can readily be used for revealing important information about how best to frame the procurement process and thus deliver productivity and unit cost improvements over time. © 2023, The Author(s).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2023
Keywords
Construction, D25, Efficiency, Highways, L25, Procurement, Productivity, R42, Tendering
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19786 (URN)10.1007/s11123-023-00678-z (DOI)001008448800001 ()2-s2.0-85161886230 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-06-29 Created: 2023-06-29 Last updated: 2023-10-10Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, J.-E., Lindberg, P. O., Gallner, C. & Asplund, D. (2023). Railway timetabling for the future?: A pilot study on a single track line. Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, 27(September), Article ID 100402.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Railway timetabling for the future?: A pilot study on a single track line
2023 (English)In: Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, ISSN 2210-9706, E-ISSN 2210-9714, Vol. 27, no September, article id 100402Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

No country uses optimisation methods to establish a value maximising allocation of operators’ demand for scarce railway infrastructure. Using the same input as was used in the year 2020 (T20), when the official timetable for one specific line in Sweden was developed by the infrastructure manager, this paper presents the outcome of the combined use of dual optimisation and rapid branching to produce a solution to an actual optimisation problem. These methods generate a timetable with the same number of trains as in T20 and some qualities that are better than those of the official timetable. The pilot study therefore confirms that it is worthwhile to further develop formal optimisation mechanisms towards larger-scale applications. Being able to handle conflicts-of-interest on a single-track line means that the problem on a double track line has fewer restrictions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2023
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19821 (URN)10.1016/j.jrtpm.2023.100402 (DOI)001047000100001 ()2-s2.0-85165717964 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Vinnova
Available from: 2023-08-04 Created: 2023-08-04 Last updated: 2023-08-28Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, J.-E., Odolinski, K. & Nyström, J. (2023). Using a self-selection mechanism for tendering in the construction industry: a case study of railway renewal contracts. Stockholm: VTI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using a self-selection mechanism for tendering in the construction industry: a case study of railway renewal contracts
2023 (English)Report (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

One of the consequences of the institutional separation of railway infrastructure from train operations in Europe is a misalignment of incentives in which the actions of one party may create costs for the other. To internalise otherwise external costs of track-works experienced by train operators and customers, it is essential to reform the way in which project contracts are tendered. This study suggests a self-selection mechanism for tendering rail infrastructure activities. Bidders may therefore submit bids based on the industry’s standard Unit Price Contract or a Fixed-Price Contract. The mechanism is designed to increase the possibility for a welfare maximising trade-off between construction and user costs. Using standard Benefit-Cost principles and parameter values, a case study where five switches are replaced provides substance to the discussion. The study provides a starting point for addressing risk in the construction industry and a blueprint for further development by professionals to fill in gaps and to test the approach under a controlled format before full-scale implementation. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: VTI, 2023. p. 27
Series
Working Papers, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute ; 2023:10
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19869 (URN)
Available from: 2023-09-05 Created: 2023-09-05 Last updated: 2023-09-05Bibliographically approved
Ridderstedt, I. & Nilsson, J.-E. (2022). Economies of scale versus the costs of bundling in the procurement of highway pavement replacement. Stockholm: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Economies of scale versus the costs of bundling in the procurement of highway pavement replacement
2022 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Although most public procurements involve decisions concerning bundling there is only a limited body of empirical research guiding policy on this matter. In this paper, we examine the cost effects of pure bundling in the competitive tendering of highway pavement replacement with hot-mix asphalt. For this we use linear regression on data from a comprehensive sample of such contracts procured by the Swedish infrastructure manager (IM) during the period 2012–2015. We find that bundling affects the procurer’s cost in multiple and partly counteracting ways. Our results show that economies of scale are strong but diminishing and counteracted by costs of bundling and bundling related factors. Overall, the findings support Swedish IM’s current design of bundles but also suggest that most of the contracts are still inefficiently small. Whilst not perfectly generalizable to other markets, the findings provide some support the increased promotion and use of bundling of small-scaled road rehabilitation projects in the US. Two main implications of the results are that bundling policy should emphasize proximity and similarity rather than whether work is small-scale and that the scope for efficient bundling should be accounted for when optimizing the timing of pavement replacement.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2022. p. 40
Series
Working Papers, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute ; 2022:4
National Category
Economics Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-19029 (URN)
Available from: 2022-10-07 Created: 2022-10-07 Last updated: 2024-02-21Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, J.-E. (2022). The Weak Spot of Infrastructure BCA: Cost Overruns in Seven Road and Railway Construction Projects. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Article ID PII S2194588822000100.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Weak Spot of Infrastructure BCA: Cost Overruns in Seven Road and Railway Construction Projects
2022 (English)In: Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, ISSN 2194-5888, E-ISSN 2152-2812, article id PII S2194588822000100Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article describes the process from first proposals in the early 1990s to project completion many years later for seven large Swedish road and railway projects. The purpose is to find reasons for the massive cost overruns as well as explanations for why projects are brought to completion despite much higher costs than when the decision to build was made. Cost overruns are set in an institutional context to highlight the interplay among national, regional, and local policymakers. National investment programs are seen as promises by other parts of society, irrespective of whether project costs increase during the process toward procurement and implementation. Another aspect is that the infrastructure manager's administrative framework currently makes it impossible to compare costs in contracts with final cost, meaning that there is no institutionalized learning process in place. Design preparations and the estimation of costs for new projects must therefore be done without an understanding of what has been working well in the implementation of previous projects. While Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) played no role in the planning of the seven projects, the article sends a stark warning that early cost estimates provide poor input for assessing project rate of return.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2022
Keywords
bias, contract rigidity, cost-benefit fallacy, cost overruns, infrastructure, institutions, time inconsistency
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-18867 (URN)10.1017/bca.2022.10 (DOI)000836003200001 ()2-s2.0-85139789382 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-12-02 Created: 2022-12-02 Last updated: 2022-12-02Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, J.-E., Ragipi Rushid, A. & Ridderstedt, I. (2021). Kontrakt för underhållsbeläggningar: analyser av produktivitet, effektivitet och kostnadsförändringar mellan avtal och slutkostnader. Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Kontrakt för underhållsbeläggningar: analyser av produktivitet, effektivitet och kostnadsförändringar mellan avtal och slutkostnader
2021 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Contracts for maintenance coatings : analyzes of productivity, efficiency and cost changes between contract and final cost
Abstract [sv]

Varje år genomför Trafikverket beläggningsarbeten för att upprätthålla en acceptabel standard på längre vägsträckor för närmare tre miljarder kronor. Rapporten sammanfattar resultatet av tre analyser som gjorts av denna typ av upphandlingar. Både projektkostnaden i kontraktet mellan Trafikverket och en entreprenör och den slutligt fakturerade kostnaden behandlas. Syftet är att identifiera möjligheter att vidareutveckla verksamhetens produktivitet och effektivitet. Varje procentenhets kostnadsbesparing kan frigöra betydande medel för att beställa mer underhåll eller för att överföras till andra, mera angelägna ändamål. 

Den första delstudien pekar på möjligheter att effektivisera de beläggningsarbeten där varma beläggningar appliceras. Analyser av kostnaden för 293 sådana kontrakt visar att det finns starka skäl att överväga att göra kontrakten större än idag. Ju fler kvadratmeter beläggning som ingår i varje kontrakt, desto lägre är kostnaden per kvadratmeter. 

Den andra delstudien försöker förklara varför slutkostnaden i genomsnitt är 14 procent högre än kostnaden i de kontrakt som tecknats medan den tredje studien redovisar en produktivitetsanalys av samma kontrakt. Trots att flera hundra beläggningskontrakt upphandlats under den aktuella tidsperioden har enbart 91 observationer funnits tillgängliga för analys. Förklaringen är att det inte är möjligt att koppla samman den verksamhet som upphandlats med slutresultatet av uppdragen. Detta gäller både verksamhetens kostnader och mängden faktiskt nedlagt arbete som kan skilja sig från de beställningar som görs. 

Den slutliga granskningen av rapporten har också visat på brister i matchningen mellan kontrakts- och slut kostnad, vilket innebär att det inte är möjligt att redovisa några policyslutsatser. Analyserna illustrerar emellertid hur uppföljningar kan genomföras för att fördjupa förståelsen av bland annat kostnadsavvikelser.

Abstract [en]

Every year, the Swedish Transport Administration carries out paving work to maintain an acceptable standard on longer road sections for almost SEK 3 billion. The report summarizes the results of three analyses made of this type of procurement. Both the project cost in the contract between the Swedish Transport Administration and a contractor and the final invoiced cost are treated. The purpose is to identify opportunities to further develop the business's productivity and efficiency. Each percentage point cost savings can free up significant funds to order more maintenance or to transfer to other, more urgent purposes. 

The first sub-study points to opportunities to streamline the applications of hot coatings. Analysis of the cost of 293 such contracts show that there are strong reasons to consider making the contracts larger than today. The more square meters of asphalt in each contract, the lower the cost per square meter. 

The second sub-study tries to explain why the final cost is on average 14 percent higher than the cost in the contracts signed, while the third study reports a productivity analysis of the same contracts. Even though several hundred pavement contracts were tendered during the pertinent period, only 91 observations have been available for analysis. The explanation is that it is not possible to link the activities procured with the result of the assignments. This applies to both the costs of the business and the actual amount of work, which may differ from the orders placed. 

The final review of the report has also identified shortcomings in the matching between contract and final cost, which means that it is not possible to report any policy conclusions. However, the analyses illustrate how follow-ups can be carried out to deepen the understanding of, among other things, cost deviations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2021. p. 31
Series
VTI rapport, ISSN 0347-6030 ; 1085
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-16258 (URN)
Available from: 2021-06-03 Created: 2021-06-03 Last updated: 2021-06-03Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, J.-E., Ridderstedt, I. & Ragipi Rushid, A. (2021). Utan spaning, ingen aning: behovet av data för att följa upp effektivitet, produktivitet och innovationer i anläggningssektorn. Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Utan spaning, ingen aning: behovet av data för att följa upp effektivitet, produktivitet och innovationer i anläggningssektorn
2021 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
The need for data to monitor efficiency, productivity and innovations in the construction sector
Abstract [sv]

För att kunna redovisa resultatet av det uppdrag som regeringen gett Trafikverket måste all information om den verksamhet som upphandlas och genomförs ges en entydig identitet oavsett var informationen sparas. Detta är en förutsättning för att kunna följa projekt genom hela tillblivelse- och genomförandekedjan och för att förklara varför somliga projekt genomförs enligt plan medan andra råkar ut för betydande problem; ”utan spaning, ingen aning”. Rekommendationen innebär inte att nya uppgifter ska tas fram. Den information som krävs finns redan idag tillgängligt i digital form och det tillkommande arbetet innebär att dokument sparas på ett enhetligt sätt för framtida uppföljningar och analyser. 

Trots svårigheterna med att koppla samman kontrakt från olika databaser har ett omfattande manuellt arbete gjort det möjligt att genomföra några djupare analyser av kostnader och kostnadsavvikelser. Huvudsyftet med denna del av rapporten är att ge exempel på hur resultaten av djupstudier kan vara av operationell nytta för verksamhetens vidareutveckling. 

En analys som genomförts baseras på information om avslutade kontrakt som kostar mer än 10 miljoner kronor. Där framgår att skillnaden mellan slut- och avtalskostnader för 776 avtal som ingåtts mellan 2010 och 2017 i genomsnitt är 20 procent för vägkontrakt medan järnvägskontrakt i genomsnitt ökar med 32 procent. Underhållskontrakt löper lägre risk för kostnadsöverskridande och har en lägre genomsnittlig kostnadsökning än investeringskontrakt.

Abstract [en]

To be able to report the results of the assignment given by the Government, all information about the activities that are procured and carried out must be given a clear identity regardless of where the information is stored. This is a prerequisite for being able to follow projects throughout the creation and implementation chain and for explaining why some projects are carried out according to plan while others encounter significant problems. The recommendation does not mean that new information must be produced. All necessary information is already available in digital form and the additional work means that documents are saved in a uniform way for future follow-ups and analyzes. 

Despite the difficulties in linking contracts from different databases, extensive manual work has made it possible to carry out some analyzes of costs and cost deviations. The main purpose of this part of the report is to provide examples of how the results of in-depth studies can be of operational benefit for the further development of the business. 

One of these analyses refers to information on terminated contracts that cost more than SEK 10 million. The point of departure for the analysis is that the difference between final and contract costs for 776 contracts signed between 2010 and 2017 is on average 20 percent for road contracts, while railway contracts increase by an average of 32 percent. Furthermore, maintenance contracts run a lower risk of cost overruns and have a lower average cost increase than investment contracts. Information is not sufficient to identify reasons for these deviations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2021. p. 72
Series
VTI rapport, ISSN 0347-6030 ; 1073
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-15918 (URN)
Available from: 2021-02-23 Created: 2021-02-23 Last updated: 2021-02-23Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-5814-917X

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