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Karlsson, Rune
Publications (10 of 34) Show all publications
Vierth, I., Karlsson, R., Lindé, T. & Cullinane, K. (2019). How to achieve less emissions from freight transport in Sweden. Maritime Business Review, 4(1), 4-15
Open this publication in new window or tab >>How to achieve less emissions from freight transport in Sweden
2019 (English)In: Maritime Business Review, ISSN 2397-3757, E-ISSN 1548-1921, Vol. 4, no 1, p. 4-15Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

For the case of Sweden, this paper aims to determine how a range of different infrastructure fees and taxes influences modal split, port throughputs, air emissions, societal costs of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution, as well as logistics costs.

The Swedish national freight model is used to simulate a range of different proposed infrastructure fees, one by one and in combination. The volume of emissions of CO2-equivalents, NOx, SOx and PM under the different scenarios is calculated in both volume and monetary terms, by applying national emission factors and EU values for external costs.

Road user fees are calculated to have the largest impact on the modal split, GHG emissions and air pollution. The impact increases slightly when road user fees are combined with higher fees for sea and rail and/or gate fees in all Swedish ports. The imposition of gate fees over €30 per truck in all ports leads to shifts in cargo to land-based modes and to ports outside Sweden. The logistics costs in Sweden are found to be three to ten times higher than the benefits of reduced GHG emissions and air pollution, although other benefits to society need to be considered as well.

The results can be used as basis for policy-making. They illustrate the environmental impacts of the fees and taxes one by one and in combination and to what extent these reinforce each other and should be co-ordinated.

The outcomes are relevant to national and international policymakers and authorities, as well as port authorities, shippers and transport companies who need to determine unilateral strategies on how to reduce GHG emissions and air pollution, without undermining their wider business objectives.

Keywords
Freight transport, Tariff, Tax, Modal split, Logistics, Emission, Social cost, Greenhouse gas
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
10 Road: Transport, society, policy and planning, 12 Road: Freight transport; 10 Road: Transport, society, policy and planning, 15 Road: Environment; J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J05 Railway: Freight transport; J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J11 Railway: Environment; SAB, Prc Ships and shipping
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-13988 (URN)10.1108/MABR-09-2018-0032 (DOI)000468332200002 ()
Available from: 2019-06-25 Created: 2019-06-25 Last updated: 2019-10-01Bibliographically approved
Abate, M., Vierth, I., Karlsson, R., de Jong, G. & Baak, J. (2018). A disaggregate stochastic freight transport model for Sweden. Transportation, 1-26
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A disaggregate stochastic freight transport model for Sweden
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2018 (English)In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, p. 1-26Article in journal (Refereed) In press
Abstract [en]

This paper presents estimation results for models of transport chain and shipment size choice, as well as an implementation of the estimated disaggregate models (for two commodity groups), in the context of the national freight transport model for Sweden. The new model is a disaggregate and stochastic (logit) model, whereas the existing Swedish national model is deterministic. One advantage of the new approach is that it bases the underlying behavior of shippers on a stronger empirical foundation (that is micro-data from the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey, CFS). Another advantage is that it overcomes a well-known disadvantage of deterministic models that lead to implausibly large responses to changes in scenario or policy variables. Although estimation and implementation of aggregate stochastic models were done before, in the context of a national freight transport forecasting model, we think this is the first implementation of disaggregate freight transport chain and shipment size models estimated on choice data for individual shipments, certainly in Europe. We carried out a number of model runs with both versions of the implemented model to compare elasticities and found that transport cost and time elasticities for tonne-km are smaller (in absolute values) in the disaggregate stochastic model than in their deterministic counterparts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer New York LLC, 2018
Keywords
Freight transport, Freight, Size, Mathematical model, Stochastic, Transport operator, Behaviour, Cost, Time, Elasticity
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
10 Road: Transport, society, policy and planning, 12 Road: Freight transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-13537 (URN)10.1007/s11116-018-9856-9 (DOI)2-s2.0-85040766219 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2019-01-31 Created: 2019-01-31 Last updated: 2019-03-15Bibliographically approved
Karlsson, R. & Bernhardsson, V. (2018). Calibration report: Samgods version 1.1.1. Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Calibration report: Samgods version 1.1.1
2018 (English)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[sv]
Kalibreringsrapport : Samgods version 1.1.1
Abstract [en]

The Samgods model is used for describing and analyzing the Swedish goods transportation system on an overall national level. The Swedish Transport Administration is responsible for its maintenance and development. The current version 1.1, from 1 April 2016, is planned to be replaced by version 1.1.1 in April 2018.

In this report, changes made from version 1.1 to 1.1.1 in the model are described, as well as the effects these changes have on the more important output from the model. In version 1.1.1, new cost input data has necessitated a recalibration of the model and new values for the calibration parameters have been produced. In principle, the same types of calibration parameters are used in the new version as in the previous one. Particular focus is on the deviations between model output and the statistical data being used as calibration targets. Comparisons of these deviations between versions 1.1 and 1.1.1 are also presented.

Abstract [sv]

Samgodsmodellen är en modell för att beskriva och analysera det svenska godstransportsystemet på en övergripande nationell nivå. Trafikverket ansvarar för förvaltning och utveckling av modellen. Den nuvarande version 1.1, utgiven 1 april 2016, planeras ersättas av version 1.1.1, 1 april 2018.

I notatet beskrivs de förändringar som gjorts i Samgodsmodellen från version 1.1 till version 1.1.1 och de effekter dessa förändringar haft när det gäller de viktigaste utdatavariablerna. I version 1.1.1 har framför allt nya kostnadsindata gjort det nödvändigt att kalibrera om modellen och nya kalibreringsparametrar har tagits fram. I princip används samma typ av kalibreringsparametrar i den nya versionen som i den tidigare. Speciellt fokus ligger på avvikelserna mellan modellberäknade resultat och de statistiska data som använts som kalibreringsmål. I notatet beskrivs även hur dessa avvikelser förändrats från version 1.1 till version 1.1.1.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2018
Series
VTI notat ; 4A-2018
Keywords
Freight transport, Model (not math), Calibration
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
10 Road: Transport, society, policy and planning, 12 Road: Freight transport; J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J05 Railway: Freight transport; SAB, Prc Ships and shipping
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-12872 (URN)
Available from: 2018-04-04 Created: 2018-04-04 Last updated: 2019-05-27Bibliographically approved
Westin, J., Vierth, I., de Jong, G., Karlsson, R., Krüger, N. A. & Johansson, M. (2016). Analyzing model uncertainty and economies of scale of the Swedish National Freight model to changes in transport demand. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 16(4), 619-632
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analyzing model uncertainty and economies of scale of the Swedish National Freight model to changes in transport demand
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2016 (English)In: European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, ISSN 1567-7133, E-ISSN 1567-7141, Vol. 16, no 4, p. 619-632Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The purpose of the paper is to analyze model uncertainty and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight transport model system Samgods to changes in its zone-to-zone base matrices. Even though economies of scale is important for freight transport, few studies analyze model uncertainty and economies of scale at a national level. Compared to many large scale network-based freight models working on aggregated transport flows, an important feature in Samgods is that it simulates logistics behavior at a disaggregated firm level.

The paper studies effects on total tonne- and vehicle-kilometre, modal split, consolidation and logistics costs when the base matrices are scaled up and down and estimates economies of scale for Swedish freight transports. The results indicate that the logistics model can find new logistics solutions for larger demand volumes, mainly by shifting freight to sea transport. If transport volume increases with one percent, average logistics cost per tonne is reduced by around 0.5 percent. Part of the cost reduction comes from increased consolidation of shipments due to larger transport volumes.

The results derived in the paper can serve as a reference for empirical validation and comparisons with other large scale freight models. The paper is a first contribution that tries to fill the knowledge gap on the impact of base matrices on transport model outcomes, such as economies of scale, in the context of a full-fledged real-world freight transport model.

Keywords
Freight transport, Mathematical model, Logistics, Simulation, Modal split, Economics of transport
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
10 Road: Transport, society, policy and planning, 12 Road: Freight transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10962 (URN)000392338600005 ()2-s2.0-84986245796 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2016-09-30 Created: 2016-09-30 Last updated: 2018-11-23Bibliographically approved
Pyddoke, R., Karlsson, R. & Lindgren, H. (2016). Trängsel på spåren?: fördelning av tåglägen i tågplanerna 2014–2016. Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Trängsel på spåren?: fördelning av tåglägen i tågplanerna 2014–2016
2016 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Congestion on the tracks? : the allocation of train paths in the train plans for 2014–2016
Abstract [sv]

Studien i detta notat undersöker tilldelningen i Trafikverkets tågplaner för 2014–2016. Forskarna har jämfört järnvägsföretagens inlämnade ansökningar om tåglägen, med beviljade tåglägen i tågplanen. Huvudresultatet är att både gods- och persontågsföretag i antal får ungefär så många tåglägen de ansökt om. Forskarna har också undersökt det som kallas ruckningstider, det vill säga hur stora tidsförskjutningarna blir mellan de sökta tåglägen som också beviljats. Ruckningstid beräknas för avgångstid, körtid samt ankomsttid. Ruckningstider kan således endast beräknas för tåglägen som både sökts och beviljats. Analysen visar att ungefär 97 procent av persontågen avgår enligt ursprunglig tågplan dessa år. För godstrafik saknas tyvärr motsvarande dataunderlag varför en motsvarande analys inte varit möjlig.

Abstract [en]

In this study, VTI examined the allocation of Swedish Transport Administration timetables 2014-2016 where we compare rail companies filed applications for train paths – as they were presented at the deadline for applications in spring for the coming timetable – with granted train paths in the annual timetable published in the autumn. The main result is that both freight and passenger companies receive roughly the same number of paths that were requested. VTI also examined what we call time offsets, i.e. adjustments in departure, arrival and driving times in the granted paths compared to the paths that were applied for. The time offsets are calculated for departure time, driving time and the arrival time. The time offsets can thus only be calculated for train paths that were both applied for and granted. This analysis shows that about 97 percent of passenger trains depart according to the original timetable during these years. For freight trains the corresponding data, unfortunately, has not been available and the corresponding analysis was not possible.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2016. p. 46
Series
VTI notat ; 3-2016
Keywords
Timetable, Allocation, Planning, Train, Rail traffic
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J13 Railway: Economics; J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J04 Railway: Passenger transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10254 (URN)
Available from: 2016-04-13 Created: 2016-04-13 Last updated: 2016-10-06Bibliographically approved
Vierth, I., Karlsson, R. & Westin, J. (2016). Validering av sjötransporter i Samgodsmodellen: version 1.1. Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Validering av sjötransporter i Samgodsmodellen: version 1.1
2016 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Validation of sea transports in Samgods model : version 1.1
Abstract [sv]

I projektet analyseras hur väl sjötransporter modelleras i det nationella godstransportmodellsystemet Samgods. I denna första rapport ingår en kortfattad beskrivning av Version 1.1 av modellen och dess kalibrering, en jämförelse av modellresultat och utfall 2012 samt analyser för att testa hur modellen reagerar på olika typer av ”störningar”. I den andra rapporten, VTI notat 31-2016 Modellering av slingor inom sjötransporter - Fallstudie av SCA:s RoRo-verksamhet på Östersjön, undersöks hur stort problem det är att Samgods inte modellerar slingor.

Nuvarande Samgods är en deterministisk kostnadsminimerande modell. Den består av olika delvis med varandra interagerande moduler: a) basmatriser som beskriver godstransportefterfrågan för 32 aktiva varugrupper, b) logistikmodellen som innehåller submoduler för val av sändningsstorlek, konsolidering av sändningar från olika avsändare, val av transportkedja, behandling av tomtransporter m.m. och c) rail capacity management (RCM-tool) som behandlar kapacitetsbegränsningar i det svenska järnvägsnätet.

Vid kalibreringen av modellen låg tyngdpunkten på tonkilometer i Sverige och deras fördelning på trafikslagen samt fördelningar på olika geografiska områden, men ingen hänsyn togs till fördelningen mellan olika fartygstyper och -storlekar. Våra analyser visar att modellen beräknar att cirka fyra gånger så mycket ton transporteras med containerfartyg än i verkligheten. Vi ser ett behov av att kontrollera om de indata som används för att modellera containertransporter (vs konventionella transporter) är realistiska.

Lastade /lossade ton kalibrerades för 14 kustavsnitt och tolv aggregerade varugrupper. Vi anser dock att även lastade/lossade ton gods per hamn bör vara ett kalibreringsmål. Godsflödenas fördelning på hamnar är centralt när det gäller beslutsunderlag för investeringar i farleder och slussar med mera.

Vi visar att Samgodsmodellen överskattar antal anlöp med samtliga lastfartyg med cirka 50 procent. Modellen beräknar att cirka fem gånger så många anlöp görs med containerfartyg och cirka dubbelt så många anlöp med roro-fartyg jämfört med Sjöfartsverkets anlöpsdatabas. Överensstämmelsen för övriga lastfartyg är dock mycket god.

Abstract [en]

The project analyzes how well sea transports are modelled in the Swedish national freight model system Samgods. This first report comprises a short description of Version 1.1 of the model including calibration, a comparison of model results and statistics in 2012 as well as sensitivity analyses to test how the model reacts to different types of interventions. The second report, VTI notat 31-2016 Modeling of loops in maritime transport Case Study of SCA's RoRo operations in the Baltic Sea, examines how big the problem is that Samgods does not model loops (vessels calling more than two ports during a trip).

The existing Samgods model is a deterministic cost-minimizing model. It consists of several partially interacting modules: a) base matrices that describe the demand for 32 commodities, b) the logistics model that contains submodules for the choice of consignment size, consolidation of shipments from different senders, choice of transport chains, treatment of empty transports etc. and c) the rail capacity management tools (RCM) addressing capacity constraints in the Swedish rail network.

The calibration of the model focuses on tonne-km and modal split in Sweden as well as different regional distributions of the tonnes transported, but the distribution over vessels types is not taken into account. Our analyses show that the model calculates about four times as many tonnes transported by container vessels than the statistics. We see a need to check if the input data used for the modelling of container transports (vs conventional transports) is realistic.

Throughput (loaded/unloaded tonnes goods) was calibrated for 14 coastal sections and twelve aggregated commodities. However, we believe that the throughput per port should be a calibration target. The distribution of the gods on the ports is crucial in analyses of investments in fairways, locks etc.

Furthermore, the distribution of the port calls vessel categories and -size classes was not a calibration target. We show that Samgods model overestimates the number of calls to all freight vessels with about 50 percent. The number of container vessel calls is about five times higher as in the Swedish Maritime Administration’s database. The number of roro-vessel calls is about two times as high. The conformity for the other vessels is very good.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2016. p. 62
Series
VTI notat ; 30-2016
Keywords
Freight transport, Forecast, Calculation, Estimation, Method, Calibration, Maritime transport
National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
SAB, Prc Ships and shipping
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-11386 (URN)
Available from: 2016-12-19 Created: 2016-12-19 Last updated: 2019-06-10Bibliographically approved
Westin, J., de Jong, G., Vierth, I., Krüger, N. A., Karlsson, R. & Johansson, M. (2015). Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices. Stockholm: Centre for Transport Studies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices
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2015 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of the paper is to analyze how sensitive the Swedish national freight model system Samgods is to uncertainties in its production-consumption matrices (PC-matrices). This is done by studying how sensitive outputs from one of its key component, the logistics model, are to changes in the PC-matrices. This paper is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to analyze the sensitivity and economies of scale of a national freight transport model using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that the logistics model is able to find new logistics solutions when larger demand volumes are assumed. Freight volumes are calculated to shift to sea transport. If the transport volume increases with one percent, the logistics cost per tonne is on average reduced by about 0.5 percent. Part of the cost reduction comes from increased consolidation of shipments due to larger transport volumes. There is also a positive correlation between total transport demand and the load factor for heavier lorries, trains and larger ships. Without empirical data and further analysis it is difficult to assess the estimated strength of the effect. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that it might be possible to reduce runtimes by removing small transport flows from the PC-matrices without affecting aggregate results too much.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Centre for Transport Studies, 2015. p. 23
Series
CTS Working Paper ; 2015:10
Keywords
Freight transport, Model (not math), Sensitivity, Calculation
National Category
Economics
Research subject
10 Road: Transport, society, policy and planning, 12 Road: Freight transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-7844 (URN)
Available from: 2015-05-13 Created: 2015-05-13 Last updated: 2018-11-23Bibliographically approved
Vierth, I., Karlsson, R. & Mellin, A. (2015). Effects of more stringent sulphur requirements for sea transports. In: Transportation Research Procedia: Current practices in transport: appraisal methods, policies and models – 42nd European Transport Conference Selected Proceedings. Paper presented at 42nd European Transport Conference 29 September - 01 October 2014 / Germany, Frankfurt am Main (pp. 125-135). Elsevier, 8
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Effects of more stringent sulphur requirements for sea transports
2015 (English)In: Transportation Research Procedia: Current practices in transport: appraisal methods, policies and models – 42nd European Transport Conference Selected Proceedings, Elsevier, 2015, Vol. 8, p. 125-135Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In 2008 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided on more stringent requirements from 2015 for airborne emissions of sulphur dioxide from sea transports in the sulphur emission control areas (SECA). The European SECA comprises the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the English Channel. The paper contains an overview of the European studies that have been carried out to investigate the impacts of IMO's more stringent sulphur requirements. All studies were carried out after IMO's decision in 2008 (which means that the decision was taken based on other reasons). The studies focus on different aspects but all of them estimate how IMO's stricter requirements will affect the sea transport costs. The Swedish impact studies are described in particular: in the 2009 study the national transport model Samgods was used and in 2013 both the Samgods model and the agent-based simulation model Tapas. Impacts on the choice of transport chains, routes and ports are calculated. The results indicate that shippers to some extent can reduce the increase in transport cost by transferring flows from the Swedish east coast to the Swedish south and west coast, the Norwegian coast and the land-based route via Denmark. Modal back shifts from sea to rail and road occur. These shifts are modest, especially if higher prices for diesel and higher rail track fees are assumed on top of more stringent sulphur requirements in the SECA. One important question is to what extent the increases in costs that are due to more stringent requirements can be compensated for by improved efficiency of the transports, such as the exploitation of economies of scale.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2015
Keywords
Maritime transport, Emission, Sulphur, Impact study, Cost, Modal split, Port, Choice
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
SAB, Prz Ships and shipping
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-10118 (URN)10.1016/j.trpro.2015.06.048 (DOI)2-s2.0-84959338451 (Scopus ID)
Conference
42nd European Transport Conference 29 September - 01 October 2014 / Germany, Frankfurt am Main
Available from: 2016-03-16 Created: 2016-03-16 Last updated: 2018-11-23Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, J.-E., Pyddoke, R., Karlsson, R. & Johansson, A. (2015). Tidtabelläggning: principer, tumregler och utfall. Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Tidtabelläggning: principer, tumregler och utfall
2015 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Train scheduling : principles, rules-of-thumb and outcome
Abstract [sv]

Denna rapport består av tre delar som ur olika perspektiv handlar om kapacitetstilldelning på järnväg.  I rapportens första del beskrivs de principer och tumregler som används i avsaknad av det ideala instrumentet för att ta fram en tidtabell för varje nytt år. Ett centralt tillvägagångssätt för att hantera denna komplexa uppgift är att så långt som möjligt utgå från existerande tidtabell eftersom denna visat sig fungera i praktiken. Intervjuer pekar på att förhandskunskapen om denna prioriteringsordning kan påverka de ansökningar som lämnas, det vill säga att den eller de operatörer som från början vet att man kommer att ha lägre prioritet anpassar sina önskemål efter detta faktum.

Rapportens andra del behandlar den del av prioriteringarna som avser balansgången mellan önskemål om att få bedriva trafik i förhållande till behovet av att få tillgång till banan för underhåll. En aspekt på denna del av problematiken är att Trafikverket tar på sig en central roll för att definiera behovet av tillgång till banan.

Den tredje delen av rapporten använder data från tågplaneringsprocessen. Den centrala analysen syftar till att undersöka i vilken utsträckning olika operatörer och olika tågslag (person- eller godståg) beviljas de tåglägen som söks. Analysen indikerar att en stor del av de tåglägen som sökts i tågplanearbetet de senaste två åren också har beviljats.

En avslutande diskussion pekar på att det kan finnas skäl att under vissa förutsättningar skapa utrymme för att också operatörer och entreprenörer kommunicerar direkt med varandra.

Abstract [en]

The Swedish Transport Agency (Transportstyrelsen) has commissioned VTI to assist in deepening the understanding of the way in which existing railway infrastructure can be efficiently used. The assignment also includes giving advice to the agency’s regulatory tasks within the railway industry. This includes the oversight of the process from initial applications of train paths submitted by train operators to the The Swedish Traffic Agency’s (Trafikverket) subsequent decision about a train plan for the upcoming year and also the ad hoc process taking place from this time to each day of the timetable.

The report comprises three separate mimeos. The first details the principles and rules-of-thumb used during the scheduling process. The second memorandum focuses one particular aspect of the conflicts in demand for track access, namely the need for access to the infrastructure for maintenance purposes and the consequent need to close down tracks for train operations during this period of time. The third and final mimeo seeks to assess the outcome of the process. In particular, a comparison is made between applications and final allocation of time table slots. Two measures of excess demand are used; the number of trains completely denied access and the adjustment of departure-arrival times relative to initial demand specification.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2015. p. 84
Series
VTI rapport, ISSN 0347-6030 ; 880
Keywords
Timetable, Planning, Demand (econ), Capacity (traffic network), Railway network, Rail traffic, Maintenance, Operational research, Scheduling
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J04 Railway: Passenger transport; J00 Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, J05 Railway: Freight transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-8282 (URN)
External cooperation:
Available from: 2016-01-11 Created: 2016-01-11 Last updated: 2016-08-26Bibliographically approved
Vierth, I., Mellin, A. & Karlsson, R. (2014). Analys av effekter av IMO:s skärpta svavelkrav: modellberäkningar på uppdrag av Trafikanalys. Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analys av effekter av IMO:s skärpta svavelkrav: modellberäkningar på uppdrag av Trafikanalys
2014 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Analysis of the effects of IMO's more stringent sulfur requirements : model calculations on behalf of the governmental agency Transport analysis
Abstract [sv]

VTI har på uppdrag av Trafikanalys analyserat konsekvenserna av de skärpta svavelregleringarna som träder i kraft år 2015 i svavelkontrollområdet (SECA) som innefattar Nordsjön, Östersjön och Engelska kanalen. Analyserna har gjorts med hjälp av den nationella godstransportmodellen Samgods. Basscenariot jämförs med sammanlagt 18 av Trafikanalys framtagna utredningsscenarier. Anledningen till att så många utredningsscenarier analyseras är att den tekniska och ekonomiska utvecklingen är osäker och ska belysas. Resultaten visar att efterfrågan på transportarbetet till sjöss på svenskt territorium beräknas vara relativt oelastiskt. Som mest beräknas sjötransportarbetet minska med cirka 0,7 miljarder tonkilometer (ca 2 procent) i scenario Hög 1: med antagandet om 40–76 procent högre sjöfartskostnader allt annat lika. Transportarbetet på järnväg i Sverige beräknas som mest öka med cirka 0,9 miljarder tonkilometer (ca 4 procent) till exempel i scenario Hög 3 med höga kostnadsökningar för sjöfart och väg (80 öre/liter bränsle). Transportarbetet på väg i Sverige beräknas som mest sjunka med cirka 0,6 miljarder tonkilometer (ca 2 procent) i scenario Låg 3 och Låg 3B, det vill säga med den lägsta ökningen för sjöfartskostnaderna men med den högsta ökningen för vägtransportkostnaderna (80 öre/liter) både utan och med höjda banavgifter. Med hjälp av skillnadskartor visas också i notatet hur godstransportflödena beräknas förändras, både för ton per rutt och per trafikslag. Det övergripande mönstret för vägtrafiken är att volymer flyttas från hamnar efter Ostkusten till hamnar efter Västkusten samt till och från färjelinjer i södra Sverige. Slutligen ska nämnas att beräkningsresultaten bör tolkas med försiktighet då analysen baseras på en testversion av Samgodsmodellen, vi bedömer dock att resultaten på en övergripande nivå är rimliga.

Abstract [en]

On behalf of the governmental agency Transport analysis VTI has analysed the consequences of the stricter sulphur regulations for marine fuel with the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods. The base scenario has been compared with, in total, 18 analysis scenarios developed by Transport analysis. The reason for the large amount of scenarios is the fact that both the technical and the economic development (related to the sulfur directive) is uncertain and needs to be taken into consideration. The results show that the demand for sea transports on the Swedish territory (in tonne-km) is indicated to be rather inelastic. In scenario High 1 the sea tonne-km are calculated to decrease by 0.7 billion (about 2%) due to 40–76 per cent higher sea transport costs (depending on type of ship) all other costs kept unchanged. For rail, the tonne-km are increasing maximum by 0.9 billion (about 4%). This is the case for scenario High 3 with the highest assumed increase for sea and road transports. The results for rail should be interpreted as potential increases since the model does not take into account capacity restrictions. For road, the tonne-km are calculated to decrease in Sweden with a maximum of 0.6 billion (about 2%) in the scenarios Low 3 and Low 3B. In this report changes in freight flows, tonnes per route and mode, are illustrated in maps showing the difference between the base scenario and the different analysis scenarios. For road, the overall pattern is indicating a redirection of the volumes from the ports along the Swedish east coast to ports on the Swedish west coast and to the ferry lines in the south. Finally, the results should be interpreted with caution since they are based on a test version of the Samgods model. However, we still believe that the results on an overall level seem to be reasonable.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2014. p. 56
Series
VTI notat ; 33-2013
Keywords
Sulphur, Emission control, Impact study, Freight transport, Cost, Transport mode, Ton kilometer, Road transport, Rail bound transport, Maritime transport
National Category
Economics
Research subject
SAB, Prz Ships and shipping; Railway: General works, surveys, comprehensive works, Railway: Freight transport; Road: Transport, society, policy and planning, Road: Freight transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-6765 (URN)
Available from: 2014-02-11 Created: 2014-02-11 Last updated: 2018-11-23Bibliographically approved
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